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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Social Bias in AI and its Implications

Previous studies have documented many different types of biases that exist in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) systems. We reviewed the literature on AI and ML bias with a focus on social implications and found that bias in AI and ML can potentially have harmful social impacts on individuals and/or groups of people. By affecting people differently according to characteristics such as race, gender, or sexual orientation, AI and ML systems may lead to harm by exacerbating social inequities. We recount examples of issues that have occurred in systems that use technology that might be used at NASA and elsewhere so that similar issues might be identified and mitigated in future systems. We also provide interested parties with a gateway into existing work on social bias in AI and ML systems.

artificial intelligence (AI)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction and Measurement of $\mathcal{O}$(100) MeV Energy Electromagnetic Activity from $\pi^0 \rightarrow \gamma\gamma$ Decays in the MicroBooNE LArTPC

We present results on the reconstruction of electromagnetic (EM) activity from photons produced in charged current νμ interactions with final state π0s. We employ a fully-automated reconstruction chain capable of identifying EM showers of &calO;(100) MeV energy, relying on a combination of traditional reconstruction techniques together with novel machine-learning approaches. These studies demonstrate good energy resolution, and good agreement between data and simulation, relying on the reconstructed invariant π0 mass and other photon distributions for validation. The reconstruction techniques developed are applied to a selection of νμ + Ar → μ + π0 + X candidate events to demonstrate the potential for calorimetric separation of photons from electrons and reconstruction of π0 kinematics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-aware photovoltaic generation estimation through fusion of physics with harmonics information using Bayesian neural networks

We develop an aggregate photovoltaic generation estimation methodology that uses diverse inputs and can reason on its current input-dependent predictive uncertainty. Named PVPHEst, for PhotoVoltaic Physics- & Harmonics-driven Estimator, the resulting tool is intelligently weighing and fusing information carried by the output of physics models, harmonics, and line sensors, using Bayesian neural networks and related techniques aimed at solving machine learning problems with intrinsic uncertainty quantification. As each of the three input classes carries heterogeneous information that only sheds light on one facet of the estimation problem but its value can diminish in the face of diverse grid phenomena, PV-PHEst with its estimation and uncertainty reasoning capabilities perform a nontrivial and potentially mission-critical task of value to grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Simple Panel System to Overcome Interface Challenges for Retrofits: Preprint

Retrofitting buildings is usually an expensive and labor-intensive process. Weatherization measures can improve comfort and energy affordability to some extent, but deep energy retrofits are needed to optimize performance and comfort, and to achieve significant energy cost savings. Barriers to deep energy retrofits include a limited supply of skilled labor, different building types, planning complexity, split incentives, and a long or non-existent ROI horizon. The "Simple Panel System" (SPS) workflow developed and demonstrated in this effort streamlines deep energy retrofits by applying advanced site capture, machine learning, and mixed reality to panelized construction. The result is a one-stop, product-independent solution for rapidly scalable retrofits with the potential to reduce construction time and project costs by 50%. Soft costs are reduced by more than 66%, total costs by more than 50%, and field construction time by more than 50% - not to mention the reduction in construction waste, improvement in working conditions, and the ability to scale without an influx of skilled labor. This paper presents the SPS and the preliminary results and findings from the pilot project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Digital Platform Informed Certification of Components Derived from Advanced Manufacturing Technologies

The Transformational Challenge Reactor is being designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to demonstrate the feasibility of constructing a reactor core using advanced manufacturing technology. This technology includes additive manufacturing combined with machine learning, materials science, and data science technologies in an effort to facilitate the expansion of additive manufacturing into advanced nuclear energy systems and other applications requiring a high level of quality assurance. The Transformational Challenge Reactor is employing additive manufacturing and artificial intelligence to deliver a new approach. Beginning in FY21, the focus of the program has shifted away from demonstrating a reactor, and instead, towards delivering on four key thrust areas: (1) artificial intelligence-informed design, (2) advanced materials, (3) integrated sensing and control, and (4) the digital platform. Of these four thrust areas, the most pertinent to this report is the digital platform. The digital platform has the potential to be a key enabler for a paradigm shift in how components, those derived from advanced manufacturing technologies, are certified for use in nuclear applications. This is achieved primarily using machine learning to discover correlations from the abundance of data produced through additive manufacturing and those physical properties critical to the performance of the component.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Residential Demand Flexibility: Modeling Occupant Behavior using Sociodemographic Predictors

Demand flexibility (DF) has the potential to increase the saturation of renewables in the grid and reduce operating costs for both utilities and customers. However, less than 8% of U.S. residential electric customers are enrolled in DF programs. A major research gap on this topic is an uneven understanding of behavioral drivers of electricity use and DF program participation at the household level. In this study, we employ machine learning models to predict residential occupant behavior in activities relevant to DF. We model occupants' extensive decisions (i.e., choice of action) and intensive behaviors (i.e., amount of time spent) during peak and off-peak time periods using the publicly available American Time Use Survey, which includes activities data for approximately 200,000 respondents. In our machine learning models, predictions for both extensive and intensive behavior fell within a +/-20% error margin at the aggregate level. We identify 13 key sociodemographic predictors of DF-related intensive behavior using LASSO inference and beta coefficient ranking. However, these top predictors differ by activity, suggesting potential scope for differential user targeting for DF events and technologies during program design. This work also contributes to understanding when and who might adopt these DF technologies based on their daily routine activities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Communication Network Layer State Estimation Measurement Model for a Cyber-Secure Smart Grid

Network communication has been proven to be a very important tool and a key factor in the recent development and progress of the power grid operation. It is also considered as the foundation for the smart grid because information and communication are integrated into electricity distribution to achieve reliable and accurate knowledge of the power grid. In previous years, absorbing energy from substations and delivering it to customers was the only type of interaction we knew between utility companies and customers. Presently, the growing connections of small distributed generation units caused by the cost reduction of most of the technologies used in generation and storage of electrical energy, along with the potential benefits of renewable energy have pushed many researchers to look into the improvement of information and communication technologies (ICT) in order to ensure a bidirectional flow of power and data. Moreover, the evolution of information and communication technologies and its applications to smart grid have converted the smart grid into a cyber-physical system where vulnerabilities and additional security challenges such as cyber-threats and cyber-attacks have emerged. Previously, we have demonstrated that using machine learning-based processing on data gathered from communication networks and the power grid was a promising solution for detecting cyber threats by implementing a co-simulation of cyber-security for cross-layer strategy. Since the majority of the challenges observed can only be solved in the network communication layer, we present in this work a physics-based state estimation model of the communication network system towards enhanced cyber-physical security of the smart grid. Information integration with the previously developed machine learning model is developed, providing a enhanced cyber-physical security application for the smart grid. Easy-to-implement model, without hard-to-derive parameters, highlight potential aspects of the model for real-life applications.

Mathieu, Reynold↗
DOE OSTI2018

Network Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently real-time, ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate real-time volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing energy storage through solubility prediction: leveraging the potential of deep learning

Solubility prediction plays a crucial role in energy storage applications, such as redox flow batteries, because it directly affects the efficiency and reliability. Researchers have developed various methods that utilize quantum calculations and descriptors to predict the aqueous solubilities of organic molecules. Notably, machine learning models based on descriptors have shown promise for solubility prediction. As deep learning tools, graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged to capture complex structure–property relationships for material property prediction. Specifically, MolGAT, a type of GNN model, was designed to incorporate n-dimensional edge attributes, enabling the modeling of intricacies in molecular graphs and enhancing the prediction capabilities. In a previous study, MolGAT successfully screened 23 467 promising redox-active molecules from a database of over 500 000 compounds, based on redox potential predictions. This study focused on applying the MolGAT model to predict the aqueous solubility (log S) of a broad range of organic compounds, including those previously screened for redox activity. The model was trained on a diverse sample of 8494 organic molecules from AqSolDB and benchmarked against literature data, demonstrating superior accuracy compared with other state of the art graph-based and descriptor-based models. Subsequently, the trained MolGAT model was employed to screen redox-active organic compounds identified in the first phase of high-throughput virtual screening, targeting favorable solubility in energy storage applications. The second round of screening, which considered solubility, yielded 12 332 promising redox-active and soluble organic molecules suitable for use in aqueous redox flow batteries. Thus, the two-phase high-throughput virtual screening approach utilizing MolGAT, specifically trained for redox potential and solubility, is an effective strategy for selecting suitable intrinsically soluble redox-active molecules from extensive databases, potentially advancing energy storage through reliable material development. This indicates that the model is reliable for predicting the solubility of various molecules and provides valuable insights for energy storage, pharmaceutical, environmental, and chemical applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics guided machine learning using simplified theories

Recent applications of machine learning, in particular deep learning, motivate the need to address the generalizability of the statistical inference approaches in physical sciences. In this Letter, we introduce a modular physics guided machine learning framework to improve the accuracy of such data-driven predictive engines. The chief idea in our approach is to augment the knowledge of the simplified theories with the underlying learning process. To emphasize their physical importance, our architecture consists of adding certain features at intermediate layers rather than in the input layer. To demonstrate our approach, we select a canonical airfoil aerodynamic problem with the enhancement of the potential flow theory. We include the features obtained by a panel method that can be computed efficiently for an unseen configuration in our training procedure. By addressing the generalizability concerns, our results suggest that the proposed feature enhancement approach can be effectively used in many scientific machine learning applications, especially for the systems where we can use a theoretical, empirical, or simplified model to guide the learning module.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2024

Optimizing Air Traffic - Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Flight Path Planning and 3D Airspace Visualization for Air Traffic Control

Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems are vital components of the National Airspace System (NAS). ATC, Airport Traffic Control Towers (ATCT), and Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) are responsible for directing all flights departing from and arriving at airports, managing our nation’s airspace, preventing potential accidents, and ensuring that every flight is accounted for. However, these systems often face challenges in effectively monitoring the skies. Issues such as poor communication between operators, difficulty in performing operations, and the constant need for vigilance frequently burden ATC operators. Additionally, the projected increase in air traffic in the coming years will only exacerbate the stress associated with this role. To address these issues, we propose a system that assists ATC operators in situations such as handovers, emergencies, and routing aircraft to avoid weather hazards. Our solution includes an Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)-based Flight Pathways Planning System (FPPS) designed to find the fastest and most optimal routes for aircraft, taking into account weather conditions, restricted terrain, and Extended-Range Twin-Engine Operational Performance Standards (ETOPS) ratings. The proposed Predictive Weather Planning Model, included in FPPS, adjusts routes based on real-time and forecasted weather conditions. Additionally, our NVIDIA Omniverse 3D Visualization System offers a highly interactive environment for better visualization and a clear view of the airspace. By incorporating these systems, the roles of ATC, ATCT, and TRACON operators will become more manageable and less stressful, equipping them to efficiently handle the growing density of airspace.

Regina Ayoubi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomalous electroweak physics unraveled via evidential deep learning

The ever-growing ecosystem of beyond standard model (BSM) calculations and parametrizations has motivated the development of systematic methods for making quantitative cross-comparisons over the wide range of possible models, especially with controllable uncertainties. In this setting, the language of uncertainty quantification (UQ) furnishes useful metrics for assessing statistical overlaps and discrepancies among BSM and related models. In this study, we leverage recent machine learning (ML) developments in evidential deep learning (EDL) for UQ to separate data (aleatoric) and knowledge (epistemic) uncertainties in a model-discrimination setting. We construct several potentially BSM-motivated scenarios for the anomalous electroweak interaction (AEWI) of neutrinos with nucleons in deep inelastic scattering ( v DIS). These scenarios are then quantitatively mapped, as a demonstration, alongside Monte Carlo replicas of the CT18 PDFs used to calculate the $\varDelta \chi ^{2}$ statistic for a typical multi-GeV v DIS experiment, CDHSW. Our framework effectively highlights areas of model agreement and provides a classification of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. By offering the opportunity to quantitatively understand model overlaps, the approach presented in this work can help facilitate efficient BSM model exploration and exclusion for future New Physics searches.

AI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine-Learned Committor Functions for Reactive Molecular Dynamics

Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) is a powerful tool for atomistic-scale modeling of a diverse range of chemical processes. However, scaling these simulations to large systems and long times scales remains a challenge because of the complexity of the potential energy function required. The authors previously developed a heuristic approach, called REACTER, that incorporates reactivity in MD simulations in a less general but much more computationally efficient manner. REACTER uses standard, fixed valence force fields as the underlying potentialenergy surface for describing all interatomic interactions but adds a procedure for enforcing user-defined reactions that occur when certain geometric constraints on relative atomic positions are satisfied. Further, these bonding changes can be accepted or rejected with a probability related tothe local thermal energy. This work seeks to generalize this approach by replacing the set of user defined geometric constraints and energetic criteria with a committor function that specifies the probability of a reaction occurring on the basis of the local atomic configuration. The committor function is a useful mathematical tool for modeling rare events but, unfortunately, is very difficult to compute for realistic systems in a general way. This work describes a method for approximating the committor function using a machine learning approach, specifically a deep neural network trained with data from reactive MD and DFT-based dynamics simulations. This network is coupled to the existing REACTER protocol, as implemented in the LAMMPS MD package, and used to make on-the-fly predictions of reaction probabilities without the more extensive user input previously required. The new method is demonstrated using the polymerization of polystyrene as a case study. Although very dependent on the quality and quantity of training data, machine-learned committor functions show promise as a method for incorporating reaction probability from higher level calculations into highly scalable MD simulations.

polymer simulations↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Operando probing dynamic migration of copper carbonyl during electrocatalytic CO2 reduction

Single crystals and shape-controlled nanocrystals are well known to exhibit facet-dependent catalytic properties. However, few studies have investigated how those nanocrystals evolve and (de)activate during reactions, calling for the development of nanoscale time-resolved operando methods. In this context, we have designed Cu nanocubes as a model system to elucidate the underlying driving force of dynamic nanocatalyst reconstruction during the CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR). Operando electrochemical liquid-cell scanning transmission electron microscopy (EC-STEM) and synchrotron-based X-ray spectroscopy reveal the size- and potential-dependent complete transformation from (100)-oriented Cu@Cu2O nanocubes to polycrystalline metallic Cu nanograins under CO2RR conditions. In addition, machine learning-assisted operando four-dimensional STEM reveals that large Cu nanograins derived from nanocubes form mainly crystalline domains, while their smaller counterparts are more amorphous due to faster evolution kinetics. In situ Raman spectroscopy and density functional theory calculations suggest that CO drives the ejection of single Cu atoms, resulting in few-nanometre Cu clusters and the surface migration of highly mobile copper carbonyl (Cu–CO) species. Combined, these multimodal operando methods and theoretical approaches pave the way for understanding the complex structural evolution of energy-related nanocatalysts under electrochemical conditions.

Yang, Yao↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum computing for finance

Quantum computers are expected to surpass the computational capabilities of classical computers and have a transformative impact on numerous industry sectors. Here, we present a comprehensive summary of the state of the art of quantum computing for financial applications, with particular emphasis on stochastic modelling, optimization and machine learning. This Review is aimed at physicists, so it outlines the classical techniques used by the financial industry and discusses the potential advantages and limitations of quantum techniques. Finally, we look at the challenges that physicists could help tackle. Quantum computers are expected to surpass classical computers and transform industries. This Review focuses on quantum computing for financial applications and provides a summary for physicists on potential advantages and limitations of quantum techniques, as well as challenges that physicists could help tackle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗