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Thermodynamic and Diffusion Model Estimates on Metamorphic Temperatures and Timescales for Basaltic Eucrite GRA 98098

Introduction: HED meteorites are thought to rep-resent igneous rocks from Vesta’s basaltic crust and preserve evidence of early crustal metamorphism. Determining the temperatures and timescales of thermal metamorphism is important for reconstructing crustal evolution in the early solar system. Here, we study basaltic eucrite Graves Nunataks (GRA) 98098, which has been identified as a highly metamorphosed eucrite [1]. We present new estimates on metamorphic temperatures determined via thermodynamic modeling as well as the initial results from diffusion models constraining timescales of thermal metamorphism. Sample Description: GRA 98098 is an unbrecciated eucrite with a granoblastic plagioclase and pyroxene mineralogy. Millimeter to cm-long lathes of tridymite cross-cut and poikilitically enclose plagioclase and pyroxene [1,this work]. Pyroxene grains have exsolved into Ca-rich (~Wo38En29Fs33) and Ca-poor (~Wo4.5En36Fs59.5) lamellae. Both unzoned and zoned plagioclase grains are observed. Unzoned plagioclase grains are found solely with tridymite laths. These grains have ~An92 compositions. The cores of the zoned plagioclase grains have the same composition and thin, relatively sodic rims (~An67), (Fig. 1). The bulk sample is unusually enriched in highly in-compatible elements and has one of the most fractionated REE patterns reported [1]. Maximum metamorphic temperatures of 985±78°C have been estimated using two-pyroxene thermometry [2]. Methods: Thermodynamic modeling. Thermodynamic models were constructed using the software Perple_X, which employs a Gibbs free energy minimization in order to determine the most stable phase assemblage for a given bulk rock composition [3]. Bulk composition was calculated using mineral com-positions acquired via EMPA (this study) and the observed abundancies present in the thin section. Two bulk compositions were estimated; 1) includes all phases present in the thin section, (assumes that all phases are present during metamorphism), 2) excludes tridymite from the bulk calculation (assumes that tridymite was not present during metamorphism). In order to determine whether metamorphic equilibria was achieved and estimate temperatures of metamorphism, we compared measured pyroxene compositions with thermodynamically predicted compositions [4, Fig. 2]. Diffusion Modeling. Several time-temperature de-pendent diffusion profiles were calculated in order to determine the best match for XAn chemical profiles observed at the edges of the zoned plagioclase (Fig. 3). We assumed that the start condition was a stepwise gradient at the plagioclase/pyroxene interface. We also assumed an average diffusion coefficient (D) and a constant temperature using the equation in [5]. D was determined for two temperatures (T = 1060ºC; near eucrite solidus [6] and T = 985ºC; metamorphism reported in [4]) and then XAn was calculated as a function of distance from plagioclase core to rim using an error function solution to Fick’s second law. Results: Thermodynamic model results are summarized in Fig. 2. For a bulk composition that includes all phases in the thin section, pyroxene endmember compositions plot in the following temperature ranges: Fs ~660-860ºC, En~1000ºC & 1150ºC, and Wo~760-900ºC (Fig. 2a). For a bulk composition that excludes tridymite from the peak metamorphic assemblage (i.e., the bulk composition minus the contribution from tridymite), a temperature range could not be determined for the Fs component of pyroxene. For Wo, T~760-900ºC and En, T~1000ºC & 1150ºC (Fig. 2b). Fig. 3 summarizes the diffusion model results. For T = 1060°C & 985°C, the most appropriate time interval was estimated based on which diffusion curve most matched (solid lines, Fig. 3) the EMPA data. For T = 1060°C, the best looking match was t = 500 ka. For T = 985°C, the best match was t = 7 Ma. Discussion and future work: Temperature estimates from thermodynamic models are not conclusive because the temperature ranges determined for pyroxene endmember stability do not overlap (colored fields in Fig. 2), thus implying that there is disequilibrium between pyroxene crystals and the bulk composition considered [4]. Thus, additional exploration is needed to define a metamorphically equilibrated do-main that accurately records peak temperature. The utility of defining metamorphically equilibrated do-mains to improve the accuracy and level of detail elucidated regarding the petrogenetic history of metamorphose samples has been demonstrated previously [4,7]. We suggest that in the case of Fig. 2a, the thin section composition is not representative of the length scales over which metamorphic equilibrium was achieve and in the case of Fig. 2b, the assumption that tridymite was not present during metamorphism was incorrect. However, results from thermodynamic models can provide insight into the relative timing of mineral and compositional textures. For example from texture alone, it is unclear whether tridymite was igneous in origin and represents the last bits of melt in a crystallizing magma chamber, or if it formed during (and possibly initiated) open system thermal metamorphism. The latter could be consistent with a partial melt hypothesis [8,9] while the former implies that simple fractional crystallization can yield the textures present in GRA 98098. The lack of coincidence be-tween pyroxene endmember compositions in Fig. 2b suggest that the bulk composition minus tridymite was not the assemblage in equilibrium with the pyroxene, suggesting that tridymite was present during metamorphism and formed during igneous crystallization. We conclude that the development of the Na-rich plagioclase rims likely occurred during or immediately after peak thermal metamorphism, because eucrites of similar metamorphic grade and texture have unzoned plagioclase (~An92) [2,4,8], and Na zoning is only observed in the plagioclase not included in the tridymite. This suggests that the zoning formed after tridymite formation, and therefore after igneous crystallization. Thus, the timescales calculated via diffusion modeling possibly represent the time interval over which thermal metamorphism occurred. Cooling rates approximated for the Vestan crust predict that the crust cooled below 300°C around 35-40 Ma after formation[10]. This is consistent with our modeling results that predict formation of the Na rich plagioclase rims occurring at higher temperatures over a period of 0.5 to 7 Ma years. Future work. Additional thermodynamic modeling work will focus on selecting an equilibrated bulk rock domain in which to elucidate metamorphic conditions. Diffusion models currently provide a minimum time-scale, since diffusion slows down as the system cools. Future work with will focus on integrating cooling into the diffusion models and constraining the depth at which thermal metamorphism occurs because it could be used to determine whether the range of time-scales calculated for thermal metamorphism are consistent with the geologic environment.

J S Gorce↗
DOE OSTI2018

2014-2018 Summary of NCAR activities in the Earth Energy Exascale System Model (E3SM) project

NCAR participation in E3SM activities as part of this funded collaborative project has been successful in leveraging the existing atmosphere model development experience from CESM scientists and applying it to initial v1 atmosphere model (EAM) development and analysis. NCAR partners collectively had many decades of experience in parameterization development, running and tuning coupled models and building the required software infrastructure to support ongoing model developments. Furthermore, collaboration between E3SM and CESM developers was of mutual benefit to both modeling endeavors. In the earlier periods of the project, participation in E3SM both complemented core critical path DOE activities and advanced individual parameterization development; including orographic drag, convection parameterization, convective gustiness and cloud and microphysical processes. Significant progress has been made implementing model capabilities for separating out the physics and dynamics grids, and providing the infrastructure for including orographic elevation class communication between the land and atmosphere models. Our activities working with the E3SM workflow and software engineering teams have established efficient protocols and infrastructure for the sharing of CESM and E3SM model codes of interest to both modeling groups, a large component of which is the mutual communication of common code bugs. As well as these specific project tasks all NCAR project members have been regular participants in atmosphere and coupled group telecons, as well as PI meetings. We have been fully engaged with and contributed to decisions regarding v1 atmosphere model developments, coupled model simulations, model tunings, and software engineering infrastructure. NCAR’s contribution to more recent E3SM development activities has centered on analysis of v1 release and pre-release simulations in order to address outstanding systematic biases and communicate climate improvements. Of particularly note is the work in understanding clouds and cloud feedbacks, shortcomings in ENSO and sub-seasonal variability; in particular the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Contributions have been made to a number of papers that are currently published or in preparation detailing model performance in CMIP6-protocal experiments. They outline the simulations of mean climate, clouds and convection processes, convective gustiness, atmospheric blocking coupled climates. The contributions of NCAR’s funded activities to the E3SM atmosphere in the initial years of the project have had a positive impact on many aspects of the model simulations described in these papers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

A new kinetic model for time-dependent polar plasma outflow - Initial results

A new time-dependent kinetic plasma outflow model has been developed, which uses a kinetic description of the parallel motions of the ion guiding centers, while assuming the electrons are a massless neutralizing fluid. The ions, O(+) and H(+) are followed as individual particles which respond to the gravitational, magnetic mirror and ambipolar electric forces as they move in one dimension along a magnetic flux tube. Results are presented for a case where the electron temperature in the flux tube is raised from a value near the ion temperature (3000 K) to a value of 10,000 K.

Wilson, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Thermal fatigue durability for advanced propulsion materials

A review is presented of thermal and thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) crack initiation life prediction and cyclic constitutive modeling efforts sponsored recently by the NASA Lewis Research Center in support of advanced aeronautical propulsion research. A brief description is provided of the more significant material durability models that were created to describe TMF fatigue resistance of both isotropic and anisotropic superalloys, with and without oxidation resistant coatings. The two most significant crack initiation models are the cyclic damage accumulation model and the total strain version of strainrange partitioning. Unified viscoplastic cyclic constitutive models are also described. A troika of industry, university, and government research organizations contributed to the generation of these analytic models. Based upon current capabilities and established requirements, an attempt is made to project which TMF research activities most likely will impact future generation propulsion systems.

Halford, Gary R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Computational Model for Simulating Spaceflight Induced Bone Remodeling

An overview of an initial development of a model of bone loss due to skeletal unloading in weight bearing sites is presented. The skeletal site chosen for the initial application of the model is the femoral neck region because hip fractures can be debilitating to the overall performance health of astronauts. The paper begins with the motivation for developing such a model of the time course of change in bone in order to understand the mechanism of bone demineralization experienced by astronauts in microgravity, to quantify the health risk, and to establish countermeasures. Following this, a general description of a mathematical formulation of the process of bone remodeling is discussed. Equations governing the rate of change of mineralized bone volume fraction and active osteoclast and osteoblast are illustrated. Some of the physiology of bone remodeling, the theory of how imbalance in remodeling can cause bone loss, and how the model attempts to capture this is discussed. The results of a preliminary validation analysis that was carried out are presented. The analysis compares a set of simulation results against bone loss data from control subjects who participated in two different bed rest studies. Finally, the paper concludes with outlining the current limitations and caveats of the model, and planned future work to enhance the state of the model.

Pennline, James A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrating renewal process modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure: Application to Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) frequency estimations in nuclear power plants

Renewal process modeling is used for the failure prediction of hardware components under periodic maintenance. While most studies utilized data-driven approaches to estimate the input parameters for renewal process models, this paper initiates a line of research to integrate renewal process modeling with probabilistic models of underlying mechanisms associated with physical degradation and maintenance. At this stage of the research, the methodology integrates Markov modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) models of degradation, while maintenance is treated by a data-driven approach. This methodology is valuable to obtain a more accurate estimation of component reliability and availablity, especially when (i) components are highly reliable, and failure data are limited, (ii) historical data are unreliable due to changes in design, operation, and maintenance, or (iii) advanced technologies have emerged limiting operational data. The methodology explicitly incorporates the underlying spatiotemporal causes of failure into the renewal model, allowing to rank the criticality of causal factors to improve maintenance and mitigation strategies. Although the new methodology is applicable for component reliability and availability analysis in diverse industries, this report demonstrates its value for estimating frequencies of a Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), which is an initiating event in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs).

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Numerical prediction experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The GLA (Goddard Laboratory for Atmosphere) fourth-order model predictions of the summer 1980 heat wave are examined to assess the skill of the model in numerically forecasting the initiation of the heat wave and the sensitivity of the model predictions to initial conditions and boundary forcing. Results of experiments indicate that the model predictions are sensitive to the initial conditions. The sensitivity of the model to anomalous boundary forcing is found to be generally larger than its sensitivity to initial conditions at extended ranges. The results of the study suggest that models may be useful in forecasting similar events if adequate determinations of the evolving boundary forcing can be made in real time.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Effects of Partial Mechanical Loading and Ibandronate on Skeletal Tissues in the Adult Rat Hindquarter Suspension Model for Microgravity

We report initial data from a suspended rat model that quantitatively relates chronic partial weightbearing to bone loss. Chronic partial weightbearing is our simulation of the effect of limited artificial gravity aboard spacecraft or reduced planetary gravity. Preliminary analysis of bone by PQCT, histomorphometry, mechanical testing and biochemistry suggest that chronic exposure to half of Earth gravity is insufficient to prevent severe bone loss. The effect of episodic full weightbearing activity (Earth Gravity) on rats otherwise at 50% weightbearing was also explored. This has similarity to treatment by an Earth G-rated centrifuge on a spacecraft that normally maintained artificial gravity at half of Earth G. Our preliminary evidence, using the above techniques to analyze bone, indicate that 2 hours daily of full weightbearing was insufficient to prevent the bone loss observed in 50% weightbearing animals. The effectiveness of partial weightbearing and episodic full weightbearing as potential countermeasures to bone loss in spaceflight was compared with treatment by ibandronate. Ibandronate, a long-acting potent bisphosphonate proved more effective in preventing bone loss and associated functionality based upon structure than our first efforts at mechanical countermeasures. The effectiveness of ibandronate was notable by each of the testing methods we used to study bone from gross structure and strength to tissue and biochemistry. These results appear to be independent of generalized systemic stress imposed by the suspension paradigm. Preliminary evidence does not suggest that blood levels of vitamin D were affected by our countermeasures. Despite the modest theraputic benefit of mechanical countermeasures of partial weightbearing and episodic full weightbearing, we know that some appropriate mechanical signal maintains bone mass in Earth gravity. Moreover, the only mechanism that correctly assigns bone mass and strength to oppose regionally specific force applied to bone is mechanical, a process based upon bone strain. Substantial evidence indicates that the specifics of dynamic loading i.e. time-varying forces are critical. Bone strain history is a predictor of the effect that mechanical conditions have on bone structure mass and strength. Using servo-controlled force plates on suspended rats with implanted strain gauges we manipulated impact forces of ambulation in the frequency (Fourier) domain. Our results indicate that high frequency components of impact forces are particularly potent in producing bone strain independent of the magnitude of the peak force or peak energy applied to the leg. Because a servo-system responds to forces produced by the rat's own muscle activity during ambulation, the direction of ground-reaction loads act on bone through the rat's own musculature. This is in distinction to passive vibration of the floor where forces reach bone through the natural filters of soft tissue and joints. Passive vibration may also be effective, but it may or may not increase bone in the appropriate architectural pattern to oppose the forces of normal ambulatory activity. Effectiveness of high frequency mechanical stimulation in producing regional (muscle directed) bone response will be limited by 1. the sensitivity of bone to a particular range of frequencies and 2. the inertia of the muscles, limiting their response to external forces by increasing tension along insertions. We have begun mathematical modeling of normal ambulatory activity. Effectiveness of high frequency mechanical stimulation in producing regional (muscle directed) bone response will be limited by 1. the sensitivity of bone to a particular range of frequencies and 2. the inertia of the muscles, limiting their response to external forces by increasing tension along insertions. We have begun mathematical modeling of the rat forelimb as a transfer function between impact force and bone strain to predict optimal dynamic loading conditions for this system. We plan additional studies of mechanical counter-measures that incorporate improved dynamic loading, features relevant to anticipated evaluation of artificial gravity, exercise regimens and exposure to Martian gravity, The combination of mechanical countermeasures with ibandronate will also be investigated for signs of synergy.

Schultheis, Lester W.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter for joint state-parameter estimation: Applications in reservoir characterization and CO 2 storage monitoring

The operation of most engineered hydrogeological systems relies on simulating physical processes using numerical models with uncertain parameters and initial conditions. Predictions by such uncertain models can be greatly improved by Kalman-filter techniques that sequentially assimilate monitoring data. Each assimilation constitutes a nonlinear optimization, which is solved by linearizing an objective function about the model prediction and applying a linear correction to this prediction. However, if model parameters and initial conditions are uncertain, the optimization problem becomes strongly nonlinear and a linear correction may yield unphysical results. In this paper, we investigate the utility of one-step ahead smoothing, a variant of the traditional filtering process, to eliminate nonphysical results and reduce estimation artifacts caused by nonlinearities. Here, we present the smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter (sCSKF), an algorithm that combines one step ahead smoothing, in which current observations are used to correct the state and parameters one step back in time, with a nonensemble covariance compression scheme, that reduces the computational cost by efficiently exploring the high-dimensional state and parameter space. Numerical experiments show that when model parameters are uncertain and the states exhibit hyperbolic behavior with sharp fronts, as in CO 2 storage applications, one-step ahead smoothing reduces overshooting errors and, by design, gives physically consistent state and parameter estimates. We compared sCSKF with commonly used data assimilation methods and showed that for the same computational cost, combining one step ahead smoothing and nonensemble compression is advantageous for real-time characterization and monitoring of large-scale hydrogeological systems with sharp moving fronts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of Solar Coronal Dynamics with an Initial Non-force-free Magnetic Field

The magnetic fields in the solar corona are generally neither force-free nor axisymmetric and have complex dynamics that are difficult to characterize. Here we simulate the topological evolution of solar coronal magnetic field lines (MFLs) using a magnetohydrodynamic model. The simulation is initialized with a non-axisymmetric non-force-free magnetic field that best correlates with the observed vector magnetograms of solar active regions (ARs). To focus on these ideas, simulations are performed for the flaring AR 11283 noted for its complexity and well-documented dynamics. The simulated dynamics develops as the initial Lorentz force pushes the plasma and facilitates successive magnetic reconnections at the two X-type null lines present in the initial field. Importantly, the simulation allows for the spontaneous development of mass flow, unique among contemporary works, that preferentially reconnects field lines at one of the X-type null lines. Consequently, a flux rope consisting of low-lying twisted MFLs, which approximately traces the major polarity inversion line, undergoes an asymmetric monotonic rise. The rise is attributed to a reduction in the magnetic tension force at the region overlying the rope, resulting from the reconnection. A monotonic rise of the rope is in conformity with the standard scenario of flares. Importantly, the simulated dynamics leads to bifurcations of the flux rope, which, being akin to the observed filament bifurcation in AR 11283, establishes the appropriateness of the initial field in describing ARs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

NASA/MSFC FY92 Earth Science and Applications Program Research Review

A large amount of attention has recently been given to global issues such as the ozone hole, tropospheric temperature variability, etc. A scientific challenge is to better understand atmospheric processes on a variety of spatial and temporal scales in order to predict environmental changes. Measurement of geophysical parameters such as wind, temperature, and moisture are needed to validate theories, provide analyzed data sets, and initialize or constrain numerical models. One of NASA's initiatives is the Mission to Planet Earth Program comprised of an Earth Observation System (EOS) and the scientific strategy to analyze these data. This work describes these efforts in the context of satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics which examine selected processes important to the global circulation.

Arnold, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assimilation of GMI and ATMS Observations in the Rainbands of Hurricanes

We propose a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration (BMCI) technique to retrieve the profiles of temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid/ice water content from microwave cloudy measurements in the presence of tropical cyclones (TC). These retrievals then can either be directly used by meteorologists to analyze the structure of TCs or be assimilated into numerical models to provide accurate initial conditions for the NWP models. The BMCI technique is applied to the data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The retrieved profiles are then assimilated into Hurricane WRF using GSI data assimilation system. This talk presents the development of the BMCI retrieval system as well as the preliminary results of assimilating the retrievals into NASA GEOS-5 model.

Moradi, Isaac↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assimilation of Microwave Cloudy Observations over the Rainband of Hurricanes Using a Novel Bayesian Monte Carlo Technique

We propose a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration (BMCI) technique to retrieve the profiles of temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid/ice water content from microwave cloudy measurements in the rainbands of tropical cyclones (TC). These retrievals then can either be directly used by meteorologists to analyze the structure of TCs or be assimilated into numerical models to provide accurate initial conditions for the NWP models. The BMCI technique is applied to the data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI).

Moradi, Isaac↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementation and testing of physics-based pulverization model in BISON

This report summarizes lower length scale computational research conducted to improve the pulverization criterion for high-burnup UO 2 fuel in the BISON fuel performance code. This research was sponsored by the NEAMS program during FY22. Efforts to improve the model primarily focus on calculating the current pressure of bubbles in the high-burnup structure (HBS) region, as well as the critical bubble pressure at which pulverization occurs in the HBS. The phase-field model for predicting initial bubble pressure in the HBS was improved by implementing a more realistic model for defect production, and by coupling the phase-field model for inter-granular bubble evolution with the spatially-resolved cluster dynamics code Xolotl to simulate intra-granular fission gas evolution. An evolution equation for current bubble pressure was added to BISON, an improvement over the previous model that assumed that bubble pressure was static following HBS formation. To improve calculations of critical bubble pressure for pulverization, 3-D phase-field fracture simulations were performed, and a function for critical bubble pressure was fit—based on the simulation results—to replace the previous function, which had been determined using 2-D simulations. The impacts of these modifications to the existing pulverization assessment cases will be reported in the forthcoming engineering scale milestone on high-burnup UO 2 pulverization. A poromechanics-based approach was used to include the effect of bubble over pressurization on the stress state of the pellet at the engineering scale, and the initial strategy for integration of the pulverization criterion with pellet-scale mechanical degradation using a smeared cracking model was developed. This report also describes the initial research that was conducted to inform a forthcoming transient fission gas release (tFGR) model in BISON. Focusing on the fission gas release caused by pulverization of the outer pellet rim, a model for the amount of fission gas release was developed as a function of fuel porosity, bubble size, and fragment size. Implementation of this model in BISON and its impact of engineering-scale predictions will also be described in the aforementioned engineering-scale milestone on high-burnup UO 2 pulverization.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1997

Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

Chen, Dake↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43: Initial Evaluation of the Climate - MERRA-2

The years since the introduction of MERRA have seen numerous advances in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as well as a substantial decrease in the number of observations that can be assimilated into the MERRA system. To allow continued data processing into the future, and to take advantage of several important innovations that could improve system performance, a decision was made to produce MERRA-2, an updated retrospective analysis of the full modern satellite era. One of the many advances in MERRA-2 is a constraint on the global dry mass balance; this allows the global changes in water by the analysis increment to be near zero, thereby minimizing abrupt global interannual variations due to changes in the observing system. In addition, MERRA-2 includes the assimilation of interactive aerosols into the system, a feature of the Earth system absent from previous reanalyses. Also, in an effort to improve land surface hydrology, observations-corrected precipitation forcing is used instead of model-generated precipitation. Overall, MERRA-2 takes advantage of numerous updates to the global modeling and data assimilation system. In this document, we summarize an initial evaluation of the climate in MERRA-2, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the tropics to the poles. Strengths and weaknesses of the MERRA-2 climate are accordingly emphasized.

MERRA-2↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of ML-Based Proxy Modeling Strategies: Lessons Learned from the SMART Initiative

Teams of researchers on Task 5 of the SMART project have developed a variety of modeling architectures to predict subsurface behavior during carbon injection and post-injection periods. One important part of this task was to compare the candidate approaches in terms of accuracy, reliability, speed, and memory use, all using a common set of metrics and visualizations for an “apples to apples” comparison. Dr. Jared Schuetter will share the details of this task, the results that were obtained, and the lessons learned.

Schuetter, Jared↗