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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

A Solar Time-based Analog Ensemble Method for Regional Solar Power Forecasting

This paper presents a new analog ensemble method for day-ahead regional photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting with hourly resolution. By utilizing open weather forecast and power measurement data, this prediction method is processed within a set of historical data with similar meteorological data (temperature and irradiance), and astronomical date (solar time and earth declination angle). Further, clustering and blending strategies are applied to improve its accuracy in regional PV forecasting. The robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated with three different numerical weather prediction models, the North American Mesoscale Forecast System, the Global Forecast System, and the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast, for both region level and single site level PV forecasts. Using real measured data, the new forecasting approach is applied to the load zone in Southeastern Massachusetts as a case study. In conclusion, the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) has been reduced by 13.80%-61.21% when compared with three tested baselines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Solar heating of GaAs nanowire solar cells

We use a coupled thermal-optical approach to model the operating temperature rise in GaAs nanowire solar cells. Our findings show that despite more highly concentrated light absorption and lower thermal conductivity, the overall temperature rise in a nanowire structure is no higher than in a planar structure. Moreover, coating the nanowires with a transparent polymer can increase the radiative cooling power by 2.2 times, lowering the operating temperature by nearly 7 K.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States Appendix: Reference and High Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios for Three Regions [Slides]

This slide deck is an appendix to a paper series that examines potential challenges related to planning future power systems with higher solar photovoltaic (PV) penetrations. The series uses the western U.S. power system for these investigations because it is a region the authors and their colleagues have already extensively studied. We are therefore well-suited to analyze even higher PV penetrations and then examine the results in multiple models to determine whether our current approaches are missing key details that only emerge at higher PV penetrations. This deck details the systems underlying those analyses and how they were modeled using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), a capacity expansion modeling tool. We examine both Western Interconnection-wide and regional results for three regions in the Western U.S. with significantly different existing power systems and connections to neighboring regions; this provides a more balanced picture as to how power systems with high PV penetration might emerge in different contexts and what the resulting grid challenges, if any, might be.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar HBCU Innovation in Microgrids & Resiliency with Solar + Storage

The Breaking Barriers project was designed to improve electricity resilience at four Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) in West Atlanta, as well as within the surrounding energy-burdened community. To do so, the project undertook work to design and construct innovative urban energy resiliency hubs integrating microgrid technology, solar generation, and energy storage in these West Atlanta colleges and communities. The hubs will help Atlanta HBCUs and the energy-burdened broader community be more resilient, in addition to informing new course curricula at Atlanta University Center campuses and inspiring similar efforts at other HBCUs and beyond.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solar and Battery Storage Permitting and Siting Requirements - Solar Prize Round 7 (CRADA Final Report)

The purpose of this project is to identify local zoning ordinances, state permitting requirements, federal regulatory bottlenecks throughout the development process, and the potential to use Large Language Models (LLM) and aggregate permitting and interconnection data for commercial and industrial (C&I), community, and utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ONSETS: FAR BACKSIDE SOLAR SOURCES AND THE EAST–WEST HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRY

Prompt onsets and short rise times to peak intensities Ip have been noted in a few solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events from far behind (≥25°) the west limb. We discuss 15 archival and recent examples of these prompt events, giving their source longitudes, onset and rise times, and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) speeds. Their timescales and CME speeds are not exceptional in comparison with a larger set of SEP events from behind the west limb. A further statistical comparison of observed timescales of SEP events from behind the west limb with events similarly poorly magnetically connected to the eastern hemisphere (EH) shows the longer timescales of the latter group. We interpret this result in terms of a difference between SEP production at parallel shocks on the eastern flanks of western backside events and at perpendicular shocks on the western flanks of EH events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Solar Activity from 2006 to 2014 and Short-term Forecasts of Solar Proton Events Using the ESPERTA Model

To evaluate the solar energetic proton (SEP) forecast model of Laurenza et al., here termed ESPERTA, we computed the input parameters (soft X-ray (SXR) fluence and ∼1 MHz radio fluence) for all ≥M2 SXR flares from 2006 to 2014. This database is outside the 1995–2005 interval on which ESPERTA was developed. To assess the difference in the general level of activity between these two intervals, we compared the occurrence frequencies of SXR flares and SEP events for the first six years of cycles 23 (1996 September–2002 September) and 24 (2008 December–2014 December). We found a reduction of SXR flares and SEP events of 40% and 46%, respectively, in the latter period. Moreover, the numbers of ≥M2 flares with high values of SXR and ∼1 MHz fluences (>0.1 J m{sup −2} and >6 × 10{sup 5} sfu × minute, respectively) are both reduced by ∼30%. A somewhat larger percentage decrease of these two parameters (∼40% versus ∼30%) is obtained for the 2006–2014 interval in comparison with 1995–2005. Despite these differences, ESPERTA performance was comparable for the two intervals. For the 2006–2014 interval, ESPERTA had a probability of detection (POD) of 59% (19/32) and a false alarm rate (FAR) of 30% (8/27), versus a POD = 63% (47/75) and an FAR = 42% (34/81) for the original 1995–2005 data set. In addition, for the 2006–2014 interval the median (average) warning time was estimated to be ∼2 hr (∼7 hr), versus ∼6 hr (∼9 hr), for the 1995–2005 data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Multijunction Solar Cells Optimized for the Mars Surface Solar Spectrum

This paper gives an update on the performance of the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) which have been continually performing for more than 3 years beyond their original 90-day missions. The paper also gives the latest results on the optimization of a multijunction solar cell that is optimized to give more power on the surface of Mars.

solar power↗