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DOE OSTI2018

Valley Stoner instability of the composite Fermi sea

We study two-component electrons in the lowest Landau level at total filling factor ν T = 1/2 with anisotropic mass tensors and principal axes rotated by π/2 as realized in aluminum arsenide (AlAs) quantum wells. Combining exact diagonalization and the density matrix renormalization group we demonstrate that the system undergoes a quantum phase transition from a gapless state in which both flavors are equally populated to another gapless state in which all the electrons spontaneously polarize into a single flavor beyond a critical mass anisotropy of m x /m y ~7. We propose that this phase transition is a form of itinerant Stoner transition between a two-component and a single-component composite Fermi sea states and describe a set of trial wave functions which successfully capture the quantum numbers and shell filling effects in finite size systems as well as providing a physical picture for the energetics of these states. Our estimates indicate that the composite Fermi sea of AlAs is the analog of an itinerant Stoner magnet with a finite spontaneous valley polarization. Here, we pinpoint experimental evidence indicating the presence of Stoner magnetism in the Jain states surrounding ν = 1/2.

2-dimensional systems↗

NASA NTRS1985

A theorem of equivalence on the methods of least-squares estimation

A theorem on the methods of least-squares estimation is stated and proved. This theorem enables the replacement of a system of correlated measurements by an equivalent system of uncorrelated measurements without a whitening process, thus simplifying the analysis while resulting in the same minimum-variance estimate.

Wu, S.-C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Metamorphic P-T paths and Precambrian crustal growth in East Antarctica

The metamorphic constraints on crustal thicknesses in Archean and post-Archean terranes are summarized along with possible implications for tectonic processes. It is important to recognize that P-T estimates represent perturbed conditions and should not be used to estimate steady state geothermal gradients or crustal thicknesses. The example is cited of the Dora Maira complex in the French Alps, where crustal rocks record conditions of 35 kbar and 800 C, implying their subduction to depths of 100 km or more, followed by subsequent uplift to the surface. Therefore such P-T estimates tell more about processes than crustal thicknesses. More importantly, according to the author, are determinations of P-T paths, particularly coupled with age measurements, because these may provide constraints on how and when perturbed conditions relax back to steady state conditions. P-T paths are illustrated that should be expected from specific tectonic processes, including Tibetan style collision, with and without subsequent extension, rifting of thin or thickened crust, and magmatic accretion. Growth of new crust, associated with magmatic accretion, for example, could possibly be monitored with these P-T paths.

Harley, S. L.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. Furthermore, the effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transactive Electric Water Heater Agent: Design and Performance Evaluation

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are usually equipped with inbuilt thermostats to measure water temperature near the installed positions. Most of the existing EWHs have only two thermostats and often do not have water flow sensor installed. Estimation of state of heat energy (SOHE) inside the hot water tank, which is crucial for efficient control and operation of the EWH, under such imperfect system conditions is very challenging. This paper, therefore, designs a transactive EWH agent (TEWHA) to better estimate SOHE in presence of measurement errors and imperfect system knowledge. The TEWHA, built-in Python, approximates the EWH physics using limited measurements obtained from the ground truth GridLABD model. The performance of the TEWHA is validated against ground truth system for three scenarios: a) ideal condition where TEWHA has complete knowledge of the system, b) imperfect condition where TEWHA has incomplete system information, and c) noised condition where TEWHA measurements contain random errors. Finally, an optimization problem is formulated and solved to demonstrate how TEWHA could use the estimated and measured parameters for a transactive control of EWH. Index Terms—Demand flexibility

demand flexibility, distribution system, electric ↗

DOE OSTI2021

wtDigiTwin (Wind Turbine Digital Twin) [SWR-21-15]

This wind turbine digital twin software (wtDigiTwin) provides a digital twin solution for wind turbine applications. The focus of wtDigiTwin is to estimate loads, motions and environmental conditions for an operating wind turbine. The program uses supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements as inputs, together with a wind turbine model. The wind industry is currently challenged by the high cost of operation and maintenance. These costs could be mitigated if component failures are predicted, but such predictions are difficult unless the turbines are equipped with expensive measuring devices. The alternative is to use a digital twin such as wtDigiTwin to estimate the necessary signals. wtDigiTwin can perform online prediction of signals that are otherwise not measured, using a limited set of reliable measurements and a physics-based model. The predicted signals can be used in applications that have direct cost benefits: 1) real-time estimation of the fatigue consumption of key components of the wind turbine; 2) root cause analyses and failure detections ; 3) lifetime reassessments ; 4) improvements to follow-on designs. The current version provides examples to estimate wind speed, thrust, torque, tower-top position, and tower loads on an onshore wind turbine using the following measurements tower top acceleration, generator torque, pitch, and rotational speed. The model combines a linear state-space model, a wind speed estimator, and a Kalman filter algorithm that integrates measurements with the state model to perform state estimations. The state space model is obtained either using OpenFAST linearizations, or using the yams package provided with the software.

Branlard, Emmanuel↗

NASA NTRS1995

Use of nonlinear identification in robust attitude and attitude rate estimation for SAMPEX

A method is described for obtaining optimal attitude estimation/identification algorithms for spacecraft lacking attitude rate measurement devices (rate gyros), and then demonstrated using actual flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft. SAMPEX does not have on-board rate sensing, and relies on sun sensors and a three-axis magnetometer for attitude determination. The absence of rate data normally reduces both the total amount of data available and the sampling density (in time) by a substantial fraction. In addition, attitude data is occasionally unavailable (for example, during sun occultation). As a result, the sensitivity of the estimates to model uncertainty and to measurement noise increases. In order to maintain accuracy in the attitude estimates, there is an increased need for accurate models of the rotational dynamics. The Minimum Model Error(MME)/Least Square Correlation(LSC) algorithm accurately identifies an improved model for SAMPEX to be used during periods of complete data loss or extreme noise. The model correction is determined by estimating only one orbit(the identification pass) just prior to the assumed data loss(the prediction pass). The MME estimator correctly predicted the states during the identification phase, but more importantly determines the necessary model correction trajectory, d(t). The LSC algorithm is then used to find this trajectory's functional form, H(x(t)). The results show significant improvement of the new corrected model's attitude estimates as compared to the original uncorrected model's estimates. The possible functional form of the correction term is limited at this point in the study to functions strictly of the estimated states. The results, however, strongly suggest that functions based on the relative position of the satellite may also be possible candidates for future consideration.

Mook, D. Joseph↗

DOE OSTI2014

Ensemble Kalman filters for dynamical systems with unresolved turbulence

Ensemble Kalman filters are developed for turbulent dynamical systems where the forecast model does not resolve all the active scales of motion. Coarse-resolution models are intended to predict the large-scale part of the true dynamics, but observations invariably include contributions from both the resolved large scales and the unresolved small scales. The error due to the contribution of unresolved scales to the observations, called ‘representation’ or ‘representativeness’ error, is often included as part of the observation error, in addition to the raw measurement error, when estimating the large-scale part of the system. It is here shown how stochastic superparameterization (a multiscale method for subgridscale parameterization) can be used to provide estimates of the statistics of the unresolved scales. In addition, a new framework is developed wherein small-scale statistics can be used to estimate both the resolved and unresolved components of the solution. The one-dimensional test problem from dispersive wave turbulence used here is computationally tractable yet is particularly difficult for filtering because of the non-Gaussian extreme event statistics and substantial small scale turbulence: a shallow energy spectrum proportional to k{sup −5/6} (where k is the wavenumber) results in two-thirds of the climatological variance being carried by the unresolved small scales. Because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, filters that ignore the representation error fail utterly to provide meaningful estimates of the system state. Inclusion of a time-independent climatological estimate of the representation error in a standard framework leads to inaccurate estimates of the large-scale part of the signal; accurate estimates of the large scales are only achieved by using stochastic superparameterization to provide evolving, large-scale dependent predictions of the small-scale statistics. Again, because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, even an accurate estimate of the large-scale part of the system does not provide an accurate estimate of the true state. By providing simultaneous estimates of both the large- and small-scale parts of the solution, the new framework is able to provide accurate estimates of the true system state.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Prediction of Safety Level of Low-Head and Ownerless Hydraulic Structures

Methods of systems reliability theory are applied to the results of an expert inspection of more than 1000 low-head hydraulic power systems in the Moscow region. The rates of failure of homogeneous earth dams are estimated. A state graph of a hydraulic structure, represented as a system that passes through discrete states from a normal to a dangerous level without maintenance or repair, is proposed. The constant failure rates for these states are calculated. The probabilistic characteristics of the safety level of low-head earth dams are predicted.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

STRONGER REFLECTION FROM BLACK HOLE ACCRETION DISKS IN SOFT X-RAY STATES

We analyze 15,000 spectra of 29 stellar-mass black hole (BH) candidates collected over the 16 year mission lifetime of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer using a simple phenomenological model. As these BHs vary widely in luminosity and progress through a sequence of spectral states, which we broadly refer to as hard and soft, we focus on two spectral components: the Compton power law and the reflection spectrum it generates by illuminating the accretion disk. Our proxy for the strength of reflection is the equivalent width of the Fe–K line as measured with respect to the power law. A key distinction of our work is that for all states we estimate the continuum under the line by excluding the thermal disk component and using only the component that is responsible for fluorescing the Fe–K line, namely, the Compton power law. We find that reflection is several times more pronounced (∼3) in soft compared to hard spectral states. This is most readily caused by the dilution of the Fe line amplitude from Compton scattering in the corona, which has a higher optical depth in hard states. Alternatively, this could be explained by a more compact corona in soft (compared to hard) states, which would result in a higher reflection fraction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reducing the cost of energy estimation in the variational quantum eigensolver algorithm with robust amplitude estimation

Quantum chemistry and materials is one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. Yet much work is still to be done in matching industry-relevant problems in these areas with quantum algorithms that can solve them. Most previous efforts have carried out resource estimations for quantum algorithms run on large-scale fault-tolerant architectures, which include the quantum phase estimation algorithm. In contrast, few have assessed the performance of near-term quantum algorithms, which include the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm. Recently, a large-scale benchmark study [Gonthier et al. 2020] found evidence that the performance of the variational quantum eigensolver for a set of industry-relevant molecules may be too inefficient to be of practical use. This motivates the need for developing and assessing methods that improve the efficiency of VQE. In this work, we predict the runtime of the energy estimation subroutine of VQE when using robust amplitude estimation (RAE) to estimate Pauli expectation values. Under conservative assumptions, our resource estimation predicts that RAE can reduce the runtime over the standard estimation method in VQE by one to two orders of magnitude. Despite this improvement, we find that the runtimes are still too large to be practical. These findings motivate two complementary efforts towards quantum advantage: 1) the investigation of more efficient near-term methods for ground state energy estimation and 2) the development of problem instances that are of industrial value and classically challenging, but better suited to quantum computation.

Johnson, Peter D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Secondary battery management

A method of managing a battery system, the battery system including at least one battery cell, at least one sensor configured to measure at least one characteristic of the battery cell, and a battery management system including a microprocessor and a memory, the method comprising receiving by the battery management system, from the at least one sensor at least one measured characteristic of the battery cell at a first time and at least one measured characteristic of the battery cell at a second time. The battery management system estimating, at least one state of the battery cell by applying a physics-based battery model, the physics based battery model being based on differential algebraic equations; and regulating by the battery management system, at least one of charging or discharging of the battery cell based on the at least one estimated state.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1974

Lunar orbit determination in the presence of unmodeled accelerations

A technique for estimating the state of an artificial satellite in the presence of unmodeled accelerations is presented. The unmodeled acceleration is approximated by a first-order Gauss-Markov sequence which can be separated into a timewise-correlated component and a purely random component. Using this approximation, a sequential procedure for estimating the position, velocity, and the unmodeled acceleration is developed. The method is evaluated by reducing range-rate observations obtained by tracking the Apollo 10 and 11 spacecraft during the lunar-orbit phase of the mission. Numerical results are presented which show that the observation residual pattern lies within the observation noise standard deviation. The values of the estimated components of the unmodeled acceleration are repeatable from orbit to orbit within a given mission and from mission to mission when the same ground track is covered. Finally, the variation in the radial component of the unmodeled acceleration shows a high correlation with the reported location of the lunar surface mascons.

Ingram, D. S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Minimum Detectable Quantity Calculation for Radiation Portal Monitors

The minimum detectable quantity of a radiation portal monitor is the smallest amount of radioactive material that can be detected passing through the monitor (with a specified detection probability). The minimum detectable quantity is a function of many factors, including isotope, velocity, distance between pillars, height of portal and vehicle, source distribution and position, background radiation, background suppression, detector volume and positions, detector efficiency, decision metrics and algorithms, the presence of NORM (naturally occurring radioactive material), and alarm thresholds. Experimentally testing a radiation portal monitor to failure for all combinations of these factors is extremely time-consuming and often cost prohibitive. This document outlines a straightforward method for quickly estimating the minimum detectable quantity for moving sources over a large variety of conditions with a minimal number of static measurements. The document also describes a proof of concept software application that the International Atomic Energy Agency has designed based on the described method that can be used by Member States to estimate a monitor’s minimum detectable quantity.

Blessinger, Christopher S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Assessment of Technical Hydropower Potential at Non-Powered Dams in the United States

Historically, dams have been constructed for a variety of purposes, such as providing a more secure and reliable water supply, mitigating impacts from variations in river flow, allowing continuous navigability, and harnessing mechanical power. A relatively small portion of dams have been designed to store or regulate flows for the purpose of generating electricity (roughly 3% of nationally inventoried dams in the US and 17% of the dams included in the World Register of Dams). The remaining population of existing non-powered dams (NPDs) presents both an opportunity to generate renewable energy and a need to modernize aging infrastructure. This report describes an assessment of more than 2,600 NPDs in the US that have a collective potential of nearly 4 GW in new power capacity. Previous national-scale assessments were aimed at evaluating the theoretical maximum power potential at existing dams in the United States. These estimates were based on the best available information at the time for water availability, hydraulic head, and representative regional capacity factors. This study revisits a subset of 3,299 dams identified in the most recent theoretical resource assessment and uses more detailed and updated hydrologic data to produce estimates of technical potential. These improvements in data enable estimates that more realistically reflect what is physically possible given simple assumptions about the existing structure and constraints on flow and head (Figure 1).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lanczos algorithm for lattice QCD matrix elements

Recent work [M. L. Wagman, Lanczos, the transfer matrix, and the signal-to-noise problem, .] found that an analysis formalism based on the Lanczos algorithm allows energy levels to be extracted from Euclidean correlation functions with faster ground-state convergence than effective masses, convergent estimators for multiple states from a single correlator, and two-sided error bounds. After filtering out spurious eigenvalues and using outlier-robust estimators within a nested bootstrap framework, Lanczos estimators behave more like multistate fit results than effective masses—but without involving statistical fitting. We extend this formalism to the determination of matrix elements from three-point correlation functions and provide a physical picture of “spurious-state filtering” involving restriction to a Hermitian subspace. We demonstrate similar advantages for matrix elements as for spectroscopy through example applications to noiseless mock-data and (bare) forward matrix elements of the strange scalar current between both ground and excited states with the quantum numbers of the nucleon.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2011

Time Domain Tool Validation Using ARES I-X Flight Data

The ARES I-X vehicle was launched from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on October 28, 2009 at approximately 11:30 EDT. ARES I-X was the first test flight for NASA s ARES I launch vehicle, and it was the first non-Shuttle launch vehicle designed and flown by NASA since Saturn. The ARES I-X had a 4-segment solid rocket booster (SRB) first stage and a dummy upper stage (US) to emulate the properties of the ARES I US. During ARES I-X pre-flight modeling and analysis, six (6) independent time domain simulation tools were developed and cross validated. Each tool represents an independent implementation of a common set of models and parameters in a different simulation framework and architecture. Post flight data and reconstructed models provide the means to validate a subset of the simulations against actual flight data and to assess the accuracy of pre-flight dispersion analysis. Post flight data consists of telemetered Operational Flight Instrumentation (OFI) data primarily focused on flight computer outputs and sensor measurements as well as Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) data that estimates vehicle state information from all available measurement sources. While pre-flight models were found to provide a reasonable prediction of the vehicle flight, reconstructed models were generated to better represent and simulate the ARES I-X flight. Post flight reconstructed models include: SRB propulsion model, thrust vector bias models, mass properties, base aerodynamics, and Meteorological Estimated Trajectory (wind and atmospheric data). The result of the effort is a set of independently developed, high fidelity, time-domain simulation tools that have been cross validated and validated against flight data. This paper presents the process and results of high fidelity aerospace modeling, simulation, analysis and tool validation in the time domain.

Hough, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Comparison of Filter-based Approaches for Model-based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches use domain knowledge about a system and its failure modes through the use of physics-based models. Model-based prognosis is generally divided into two sequential problems: a joint state-parameter estimation problem, in which, using the model, the health of a system or component is determined based on the observations; and a prediction problem, in which, using the model, the stateparameter distribution is simulated forward in time to compute end of life and remaining useful life. The first problem is typically solved through the use of a state observer, or filter. The choice of filter depends on the assumptions that may be made about the system, and on the desired algorithm performance. In this paper, we review three separate filters for the solution to the first problem: the Daum filter, an exact nonlinear filter; the unscented Kalman filter, which approximates nonlinearities through the use of a deterministic sampling method known as the unscented transform; and the particle filter, which approximates the state distribution using a finite set of discrete, weighted samples, called particles. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we conduct a number of simulation-based experiments investigating the performance of the different algorithms as applied to prognostics.

prognostics↗