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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

nSnare™

nSnare™ analyses and categorizes log messages generated by various and customizable third party software packages using a custom multi-tiered rules engine. Each log message is either determined to be a false positive, or it is assigned a score based on the severity of the potential attack and confidence that the activity described by the log message is not a false positive. Log messages are then assigned to an event, which is a collection of log messages related to a single potential attack. Meta-analysis rules run on the collection of all logs within an event to correlate multiple related logs into a single known attack signature. When the sum of the scores of all logs within an event exceeds a pre-defined threshold, the event is labelled as an attack and an automated response is generated to block the attacker from connecting to any protected resources, called quarantining within the application, for a variable length of time. The length of time that the quarantine lasts for is based on the severity and frequency of the attack, along with historical information on the attacker and any third party provided threat intelligence data that the system has gathered. An additional random length of time is added to each quarantine so the algorithm cannot easily be learned and bypassed by a persistent attacker. A confidence score is generated based on a proprietary algorithm that determines the likelihood that the data which lead to the attacker getting quarantined was a false positive. A threat intelligence record is created for each detected attack, with details on the attacker, a summary of what triggered the quarantine, the severity of the attack and the confidence the system has that the attack is not the result of false data, which can then be shared with external entities so that they can also protect themselves from a related attack. The software also includes a web based front end for analyzing the current quarantined attacks, removing a quarantine in the case of a false positive, viewing previously quarantined attacks, and tracking suspicious activity that the system is currently evaluating. The web interface also allows the creation and modification of rules used by the rules engine, and the maintenance of a whitelist of known good systems that should never be automatically quarantined.

Hoying, Andrew↗

Two new SciDAC institutes promote mathematical tools and software technology for high-performance computing

Bigger is often said to be better, and the newest extreme-scale computers certainly are bigger, with millions of processing units. Moreover, the breadth of science performed on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) computing facilities is expanding, with new technology such as artificial intelligence emerging. These advances are exciting, creating new opportunities for scientific discovery; however, they also raise new questions for scientists who want to exploit these advances for tackling more complex problems. Will my simulation code be able to utilize the accelerators in extreme-scale computing systems? Can I take advantage of the deepening memory hierarchy in heterogeneous processors? Is there a way around bottlenecks caused by the widening ratio of peak floating-point operations per second to I/0 bandwidth? How can I manage my huge amounts of data effectively? Can I analyze data in situ, or must I transfer it to offline storage for later analysis? To address such questions, DOE announced that it is providing $57.5 million over the next five years for two multidisciplinary teams — FASTMath and RAPIDS2 — to develop new tools and techniques to harness supercomputers for scientific discovery. The teams, called SciDAC Institutes, are part of the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing Batch Crystallization with Model-based Design of Experiments

Adaptive and self-optimizing intelligent systems such as digital twins are increasingly important in science and engineering. Digital twins utilize mathematical models to provide added precision to decision-making. However, physics-informed models are challenging to build, calibrate, and validate with existing data science methods. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) is a popular framework for optimizing data collection to maximize parameter precision in mathematical models and digital twins. In this work, we apply MBDoE, facilitated by the open-source package Pyomo.DoE, to train and validate mathematical models for batch crystallization. We quantitatively examined the estimability of the model parameters for experiments with different cooling rates. This analysis provides a quantitative explanation for the heuristic of using multiple experiments at different cooling rates.

Lynch, Hailey↗

Systems simulations supporting NASA telerobotics

Two simulation and analysis environments have been developed to support telerobotics research at the Langley Research Center. One is a high-fidelity, nonreal-time, interactive model called ROBSIM, which combines user-generated models of workspace environment, robots, and loads into a working system and simulates the interaction among the system components. Models include user-specified actuator, sensor, and control parameters, as well as kinematic and dynamic characteristics. Kinematic, dynamic, and response analyses can be selected, with system configuration, task trajectories, and arm states displayed using computer graphics. The second environment is a real-time, manned Telerobotic Systems Simulation (TRSS) which uses the facilities of the Intelligent Systems Research Laboratory (ISRL). It utilizes a hierarchical structure of functionally distributed computers communicating over both parallel and high-speed serial data paths to enable studies of advanced telerobotic systems. Multiple processes perform motion planning, operator communications, forward and inverse kinematics, control/sensor fusion, and I/O processing while communicating via common memory. This paper describes both ROBSIM and TRSS, including their capability, status, and future plans. Also described is the architecture of ISRL and recent telerobotic system studies in ISRL.

Harrison, F. Wallace, Jr.↗

Systems simulations supporting NASA telerobotics

Two simulation and analysis environments have been developed to support telerobotics research at the Langley Research Center. One is a high-fidelity, nonreal-time, interactive model called ROBSIM, which combines user-generated models of workspace environment, robots, and loads into a working system and simulates the interaction among the system components. Models include user-specified actuator, sensor, and control parameters, as well as kinematic and dynamic characteristics. Kinematic, dynamic, and response analyses can be selected, with system configuration, task trajectories, and arm states displayed using computer graphics. The second environment is a real-time, manned Telerobotic Systems Simulation (TRSS) which uses the facilities of the Intelligent Systems Research Laboratory (ISRL). It utilizes a hierarchical structure of functionally distributed computers communicating over both parallel and high-speed serial data paths to enable studies of advanced telerobotic systems. Multiple processes perform motion planning, operator communications, forward and inverse kinematics, control/sensor fusion, and I/O processing while communicating via common memory. Both ROBSIM and TRSS, including their capability, status, and future plans are discussed. Also described is the architecture of ISRL and recent telerobotic system studies in ISRL.

Harrison, F. W., Jr.↗

Autonomous Onboard Science Image Analysis for Future Mars Rover Missions

To explore high priority landing sites and to prepare for eventual human exploration, future Mars missions will involve rovers capable of traversing tens of kilometers. However, the current process by which scientists interact with a rover does not scale to such distances. Specifically, numerous command cycles are required to complete even simple tasks, such as, pointing the spectrometer at a variety of nearby rocks. In addition, the time required by scientists to interpret image data before new commands can be given and the limited amount of data that can be downlinked during a given command cycle constrain rover mobility and achievement of science goals. Experience with rover tests on Earth supports these concerns. As a result, traverses to science sites as identified in orbital images would require numerous science command cycles over a period of many weeks, months or even years, perhaps exceeding rover design life and other constraints. Autonomous onboard science analysis can address these problems in two ways. First, it will allow the rover to transmit only "interesting" images, defined as those likely to have higher science content. Second, the rover will be able to anticipate future commands. For example, a rover might autonomously acquire and return spectra of "interesting" rocks along with a high resolution image of those rocks in addition to returning the context images in which they were detected. Such approaches, coupled with appropriate navigational software, help to address both the data volume and command cycle bottlenecks that limit both rover mobility and science yield. We are developing fast, autonomous algorithms to enable such intelligent on-board decision making by spacecraft. Autonomous algorithms developed to date have the ability to identify rocks and layers in a scene, locate the horizon, and compress multi-spectral image data. Output from these algorithms could be used to autonomously obtain rock spectra, determine which images should be transmitted to the ground, or to aid in image compression. We will discuss these and other algorithms and demonstrate their performance during a recent rover field test.

Gulick, V. C.↗

A Cybersecurity Testbed for Smart Buildings

Smart buildings are equipped with a plethora of cyber-physical systems, such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices and building automation systems. These devices, especially in commercial buildings, use legacy communications and hardware that were not designed with cybersecurity in mind. With increasing cyber threats in recent years, smart buildings have become an increasing target for attacks, but not enough published data are available from these incidents to study or replicate the scenarios to defend buildings. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy-funded project focusing on developing the Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS) platform, we developed a cybersecurity test bed for smart buildings. This test bed includes a building simulation tool, virtual devices, emulated operational technology networks, and remote hardware-in-the-loop. Using this test bed, we performed different cyberattacks on the smart building model and collected both physical building data, to understand the impacts on the building, and network data, to aid in separating mechanical faults from cyberattacks during the detection. This test bed is a significant tool in protecting smart buildings from cyberattacks because it can aid in both cybersecurity analysis and the evaluation of other cyberattack detection tools by testing the tools in a secure environment without impacting the building operations.

cyber-physical systems↗

A Cybersecurity Testbed for Smart Buildings

Smart buildings are equipped with a plethora of cyber-physical systems, such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices and building automation systems. These devices, especially in commercial buildings, use legacy communications and hardware that were not designed with cybersecurity in mind. With increasing cyber threats in recent years, smart buildings have become an increasing target for attacks, but not enough published data are available from these incidents to study or replicate the scenarios to defend buildings. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy-funded project focusing on developing the Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS) platform, we developed a cybersecurity test bed for smart buildings. This test bed includes a building simulation tool, virtual devices, emulated operational technology networks, and remote hardware-in-the-loop. Using this test bed, we performed different cyberattacks on the smart building model and collected both physical building data, to understand the impacts on the building, and network data, to aid in separating mechanical faults from cyberattacks during the detection. This test bed is a significant tool in protecting smart buildings from cyberattacks because they can aid in both cybersecurity analysis and the evaluation of cyberattack detection tools by testing the tools in a secure environment without impacting the building operations.

alfalfa↗

Adaptive Path-Following Control for Ground Vehicles Using a Switching Non-Quadratic Lyapunov Function

The application of adaptive control techniques in the development of control systems for intelligent vehicles, especially for ground vehicle path-following controllers, has gained popularity due to their ability to handle large-scale parametric uncertainties. However, the use of a standard quadratic Lyapunov function in existing adaptive control-based path-following controllers can lead to poor transient performance, such as slow convergence and/or large overshoot. To address this limitation, this study proposes the use of a switching non-quadratic Lyapunov function to design a model reference adaptive path-following controller that aims to provide superior transient performance. The stability and signal convergence of the closed-loop system are demonstrated through a Lyapunov-like analysis. Through dSPACE ASM simulation, the effectiveness of the proposed controller is illustrated, which confirms improved tracking performance over a baseline solution.

Zhou, Xingyu↗

Advanced Research Directions on AI for Science, Energy, and Security: Report on Summer 2022 Workshops

Over the past decade, fundamental changes in artificial intelligence (AI)—from foundational to applied—have delivered dramatic insights across a wide breadth of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) mission space. AI is helping to augment and improve scientific and engineering workflows (e.g., for control, design, and dramatic performance gains through surrogate models) in national security, the Office of Science, and DOE’s applied energy programs. The progress and potential for AI in DOE science was captured in the 2020 “AI for Science” report from the DOE laboratory community in collaboration with academia and industry. Specific scientific areas ready to further leverage the power of AI ranged from the scale and performance of computational models to data analysis to creating new classes of observations using computer vision. Since that report, the scale and scope of scientific AI have accelerated, revealing new, emergent properties that yield insights that go beyond enabling opportunities to being potentially transformative in the way that scientific problems are posed and solved. Thus, under the guidance of both the Office of Science (SC) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the DOE national laboratories organized a series of workshops in 2022 to gather input on new and rapidly emerging opportunities and challenges of scientific AI. This 2023 report is a synthesis of those workshops. The scientific community believes AI can have a foundational impact on a broad range of DOE missions, including science, energy, and national security. Further, DOE has unique capabilities that enable the community to drive progress in scientific use of AI, building on long-standing DOE strengths and investments in computation, data, and communications infrastructure, spanning the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), and integrative programs such as the NNSA Office of Defense Programs Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) and the SC Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Autonomous Image Analysis for Future Mars Missions

To explore high priority landing sites and to prepare for eventual human exploration, future Mars missions will involve rovers capable of traversing tens of kilometers. However, the current process by which scientists interact with a rover does not scale to such distances. Specifically, numerous command cycles are required to complete even simple tasks, such as, pointing the spectrometer at a variety of nearby rocks. In addition, the time required by scientists to interpret image data before new commands can be given and the limited amount of data that can be downlinked during a given command cycle constrain rover mobility and achievement of science goals. Experience with rover tests on Earth supports these concerns. As a result, traverses to science sites as identified in orbital images would require numerous science command cycles over a period of many weeks, months or even years, perhaps exceeding rover design life and other constraints. Autonomous onboard science analysis can address these problems in two ways. First, it will allow the rover to preferentially transmit "interesting" images, defined as those likely to have higher science content. Second, the rover will be able to anticipate future commands. For example, a rover might autonomously acquire and return spectra of "interesting" rocks along with a high-resolution image of those rocks in addition to returning the context images in which they were detected. Such approaches, coupled with appropriate navigational software, help to address both the data volume and command cycle bottlenecks that limit both rover mobility and science yield. We are developing fast, autonomous algorithms to enable such intelligent on-board decision making by spacecraft. Autonomous algorithms developed to date have the ability to identify rocks and layers in a scene, locate the horizon, and compress multi-spectral image data. We are currently investigating the possibility of reconstructing a 3D surface from a sequence of images acquired by a robotic arm camera. This would then allow the return of a single completely in focus image constructed only from those portions of individual images that lie within the camera's depth of field. Output from these algorithms could be used to autonomously obtain rock spectra, determine which images should be transmitted to the ground, or to aid in image compression. We will discuss these algorithms and their performance during a recent rover field test.

Gulick, V. C.↗

Lessons Learned from AskGDR: Usage and Impact Analysis of the Geothermal Data Repository's AI Research Assistant: Preprint

In October of 2024, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) team officially launched AskGDR, an AI research assistant resulting from the integration of a Large Language Model (LLM) with the metadata and supporting documents associated with GDR datasets. AskGDR allows GDR users to ask deeper questions about the origin of datasets, the methods used to collect them, and the findings they help support. Using Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG), AskGDR can be used to summarize findings spread across dozens of papers and technical reports or to extract relevant information describing a single data field. However, generative AI is experimental. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been collecting metrics on AskGDR and documenting lessons learned during its deployment. This paper will outline the efficacy and impact of AskGDR through analysis of its use, operating costs, number and types of questions asked, and the quality of answers provided.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Parallel I/O Evaluation Techniques and Emerging HPC Workloads: A Perspective

Emerging workloads such as artificial intelligence, big data analytics and complex multi-step workflows alongside future exascale applications are anticipated future HPC workloads, which will result in a more diverse I/O system workload and even less predictable I/O behavior and access patterns. Along with the ever increasing gap between the compute and storage performance capabilities, the in-depth understanding of extreme-scale I/O behavior and the I/O performance modeling and prediction are essential tools of the large-scale I/O evaluation process for addressing the needs of extreme-scale hybrid workloads. In this survey article, we focus on the state-of-the-art of the I/O behavior and performance analysis process for HPC systems in a 5-year time window and identify future research challenges.

Neuwirth, Sarah↗

A Monte-Carlo Method for Evaluating the Economic Performance of Plastics Recycling Systems Using Historical Pricing

The management of plastic waste is a considerable emerging global concern. Conventional plastics recycling rates range from 5–10% in the US, which results in considerable material being sent to landfill. New sorting technologies using artificial intelligence have the potential to dramatically increase the ability of waste management companies to sort out valuable fractions of plastic waste and create high-purity streams for secondary markets. However, several fractions of the plastics recycling stream, i.e., low-density polyethylene, polypropylene, and polystyrene, do not have well-developed markets. These materials may be sent to pyrolysis facilities for thermal recycling, but the economics of the pyrolysis industry are currently uncertain. This work aims to identify the breakeven price of the plastic fractions that would be sent to pyrolysis in order to determine the economic viability of the sorting facility. The work will use Monte Carlo analysis to evaluate several scenarios and understand how compositional variation, price variability, and facility attributes affect the breakeven price. Here, the presorting conditions in Materials Recovery Facilities strongly affects the profitability of the sorting facility. High residual high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) content in presorted bales are important revenue drivers for the facility, even in presorted 3-7 bales. Key variables that lead to profitability include a high sale price of polyethylene terephthalate, a high sale price of high-density polyethylene, and if polypropylene can be sold to recycling markets (as opposed to pyrolysis facilities).

Plastics↗

Artificial Intelligence Research Branch future plans

This report contains information on the activities of the Artificial Intelligence Research Branch (FIA) at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) in 1992, as well as planned work in 1993. These activities span a range from basic scientific research through engineering development to fielded NASA applications, particularly those applications that are enabled by basic research carried out in FIA. Work is conducted in-house and through collaborative partners in academia and industry. All of our work has research themes with a dual commitment to technical excellence and applicability to NASA short, medium, and long-term problems. FIA acts as the Agency's lead organization for research aspects of artificial intelligence, working closely with a second research laboratory at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and AI applications groups throughout all NASA centers. This report is organized along three major research themes: (1) Planning and Scheduling: deciding on a sequence of actions to achieve a set of complex goals and determining when to execute those actions and how to allocate resources to carry them out; (2) Machine Learning: techniques for forming theories about natural and man-made phenomena; and for improving the problem-solving performance of computational systems over time; and (3) Research on the acquisition, representation, and utilization of knowledge in support of diagnosis design of engineered systems and analysis of actual systems.

Stewart, Helen↗

OpenCRUMS USA: An Open Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Variability in Aerosol Reanalysis Data

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have called for exploring how these techniques can be used for exploring patterns in large climate datasets. To that regard, the U.S. Department of Energy AI for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) supported a pilot initiative called the Open Classification of Regimes in the Southeast USA (OpenCRUMS USA) project to explore how AI can be used to characterize modes of spatial variability in large climate datasets. For this study, we focus on comparing two methods for characterizing the modes of spatial variability of surface aerosol concentration over the Houston region: empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and layerwise relevance propagation (LRP) applied to a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier. We show that EOF analysis typically attributes spatial variability modes that span all of southeast Texas, prohibiting the attribution of spatial variability to localized regions. However, using LRP on the CNN classifier resolves the explanatory parameters at a finer spatial resolution than EOFs. This allows for the attribution of the spatial variability of surface aerosols to local regions of organic carbon which was not possible using EOFs. In addition, the LRP analysis also suggests that synoptic-scale transport of dust is most prevalent during anticyclonic and pretrough synoptic conditions as categorized by self-organizing maps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗