Predictive Modeling, Inverse Problems, and Uncertainty Quantification with Application to Emergency Response
No abstract provided.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
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Mechanical Behavior of UO 2 at Sub-grain Length Scales: Quantification of Elastic, Plastic and Creep Properties via Microscale Testing
Techniques were developed to measure properties at sub-grain scales using depleted Uranium Oxide (d-UO2) samples heat-treated to obtain different grain sizes and oxygen stoichiometries, through three main tasks: 1) sample processing and characterization, 2) microscale and conventional testing and 3) modeling. Grain size and crystallography were characterized using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), in conjunction with Electron Backscattering Diffraction (EBSD) and Electron Channeling Contrast Imaging (ECCI). Grains were then carefully selected based on their crystallographic orientations to perform ex-situ micromechanical tests with samples machined via Focused Ion Beam (FIB), with emphasis on micro-cantilever bending. These experiments were performed under controlled atmospheres, to insure stoichiometry control, at temperatures up to 700 °C and allowed measurements involving elastic (effective Young’s modulus), plastic (critical resolved shear stresses) and creep (creep strain rates) behavior. Conventional compression experiments were performed simultaneously to compare with the ex-situ measurements and study potential size effects. Modeling was implemented using anisotropic elasticity and inelastic constitutive relations for plasticity and creep based on kinematics and kinetics of dislocation glide that account for the effects of crystal orientation, and stress. The models will be calibrated and validated using the experimental data. This project provided insight on correlations among stoichiometry, crystallography and mechanical behavior in advanced oxide fuels, provided valuable experimental data to validate and calibrate mesoscale fuel performance codes and also a framework to measure sub-grain scale mechanical properties that should be suitable for use with irradiated samples due to small volumes required. The goals and metrics of the ongoing study of thermo-mechanical behavior in depleted uranium dioxide (d-UO 2 ) outlined in this project have been concluded successfully, resulting in: 1) the successful fabrication, processing, and characterization of large-grained samples with various orientations (up to and including single crystals) having stoichiometric and hyper-stoichiometric O/U ratios; 2) formulation, calibration, and validation of a crystal plasticity constitutive model to describe the creep deformation of UO 2 at the sub-grain length scale (single crystal level) at intermediate temperatures; 3) the successful calibration of a crystal plasticity constitutive model to describe the elasto-plastic deformation of microcantilever beams, also at moderate temperatures. Samples were prepared from natural uranium oxide powder of production-quality provided by Areva. The powder was pressed in a die to a pressure of 100 MPa to produce green pellets with no sintering aids, lubricants, or any other additives. The green pellets were then heated up to 1700 °C under ultra-high purity argon atmosphere (~1 ppm O2). The atmosphere was then changed to 79% Argon, 21% O 2 and the temperature was held at 1700 °C for 2 hours to sinter the pellets under oxidative conditions [1] that are known to increase grain growth kinetics in UO 2 [2]. Samples were then cooled down under Ar-4%H2 atmosphere to reduce the samples back to stoichiometric UO 2 . For macro-scale procedures, testing of UO 2 samples with large grains was performed at 1200 °C using a modified load frame capable of applying dead-weight loads to ensure constant stress conditions, while displacement of the sample produced by the applied load was measured with high precision micrometers to obtain strains. Stress steps were used during testing and the strains were monitored to measured creep strain rates under steady state for each level of stress used, so that stress exponents could be obtained. The results of the mechanical testing, along with sample geometry and crystal orientation of the grains in the samples, as well as post-test sample characterization were used to formulate a viscoplastic model to account for steady state (stage II) creep behavior, along with basic assumptions from crystal plasticity and kinematic constraints due to testing fixtures. In the micro-scale, testing of microcantilever beams at temperatures ranging from 25 to 570 °C was performed in-situ with a scanning electron microscope with a special attachment to apply load and measure displacement while the samples were at temperature. The load-displacement curves obtained showed linear behavior before fracture for all temperatures attempted except 570 °C, where clear deviations from non-linearity were observed before fracture. These deviations were consistently observed for all samples tested for a given orientation. A viscoplastic model was used to account for the presence of inelastic strain, along with basic assumptions from crystal plasticity and beam theory. These models were kept as simple as possible, and results from tests performed in a set of samples with a given crystal orientation were used to calibrate the material constants for the model, while results from a different sample set were then used for validation, thus satisfying the conditions of all main tasks within the parameters of this project. Details of these efforts are outlined in this report.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Enhanced Analytical Simulation Tool (EASiTool) for CO 2 Storage Capacity Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification
An enhanced analytical simulation tool (EASiTool) was developed to estimate CO 2 storage capacity in saline aquifers. The tool provides a quantitative estimate of storage capacity for multi-well injection/extraction systems by applying novel analytical models for both closed- and open-boundary saline aquifers and analyzes the potential of enhancing storage efficiency by integrating active brine management (brine extraction technology). Brine extraction would enhance the storage capacity and partially control the pressure buildup. EASiTool includes a user-friendly interface and can be used to provide reservoir and basin-scale storage capacity estimates.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Detection and Quantification of Ground Surface Changes from an Underground Explosion
No abstract provided.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of the Feynman Y and Sm 2
Neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) experiments are frequently used to perform non-destructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) [2]. While the behavior of a critical or nearly critical system is well described by the mean count rate, which is the mean of the NMC distribution, the behavior of a highly subcritical system exhibits large fluctuation in time. Fission chains do not last long enough to overlap and thus the neutron population is relatively small with a large dispersion. The system behavior must therefore be described in terms of higher-order NMC distribution moments.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of the Feynman Y and Sm 2
No abstract provided.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Adjoint-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for keff: Using the MCNP KSEN Card
No abstract provided.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
An Extended Study on the Uncertainty Quantification of a Photodiode's Spectral Responsivity
An extended study was done on the analysis procedure for spectral responsivity of a silicon detector from the range of 200 nm to 1100 nm for the Optical Component Calibration laboratory at Livermore Operations in Livermore California. As a result, the uncertainty of the procedure was quantified to account for variables that contribute to uncertainty; such as the reproducibility and repeatability of the working standards, quantifying Type A and B uncertainties, validating laboratory equipment and associated software, and looking at environmental variables. The findings lead to a revised analysis reporting procedure that reports uncertainties depending on three spectral ranges, 300 nm to 400 nm, 400 nm to 700 nm, and 700 nm to 1100 nm. A proficiency test was done to compare the difference between both methods and a noticeable difference was found. The results showed that the previous reporting method over estimated uncertainty as much as 3.5% for the 300 nm to 400 nm range, 4% in the >400 nm to 700 nm range, and 2% in the >700 nm to 1100 nm range. The findings lead to the use of the revised procedure when producing calibration certificates, better quantified measurement uncertainties, and will be used for the process of updating the scope of accreditation from the National Voluntary Laboratory Accreditation Program.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Mathematical Foundations for Uncertainty Quantification in Materials Design. Final Report
Final report DE-SC0010723. Our key accomplishment in the first year of the grant is that we started developing pathwise information theory-based and goal-oriented sensitivity analysis and parameter identification methods for complex high-dimensional dynamics and in particular of nonequilibrium extended systems. The combination of these novel methodologies provide the first methods in the literature which are capable to handle UQ questions for stochastic complex systems with some or all of the following features: (a) multi-scale models with a very large number of parameters, (b) spatially distributed systems such as Kinetic Monte Carlo or Langevin Dynamics, (c) non-equilibrium processes typically associated with coupled physico-chemical mechanisms, driven boundary conditions, etc. The first two such publications sponsored by the grant, have just been published.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Developing an Automated Uncertainty Quantification Tool to Improve Watershed-Scale Predictions of Water and Nutrient Cycling
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Model Emulation and Calibration: Uncertainty Quantification and Making Inference with Simulation
This report discusses using computational physics models to make statistical and scientific inferences.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Quantification of Land-Use/Land Cover Change as Driver of Earth System Dynamics (Final Technical Report)
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with impacts on climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet future demands for food, feed, fiber, and energy. The proposal has three major objectives: 1: Develop metrics to quantify climate sensitivity to land-use/land-cover change using DOE-ESM/CESM; 2: develop new essential input data products and algorithms for land-use in DOE-ESM/CESM (past-future); and 3: design model experiments to isolate and quantify the effects of land-use on climate in DOE- ESM/CESM. The science supported by this award has generated numerous accomplishments, and is generating major impacts on the topic of land-use/climate more broadly.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Sampling Error Quantification and Reduction - White Paper
Abstract not provided.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Extreme Weather and Climate Vulnerabilities of the Electric Grid: A Summary of Environmental Sensitivity Quantification Methods
Climate hazards and extreme weather affect all components of the electric grid system, from generation to end use. Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability, more intense storm events, and sea level rise affect the ability of the electric grid to produce and transmit electricity from fossil, nuclear, and existing and emerging renewable energy sources. Most electricity infrastructure is built for past or current climate conditions. Due to long lifetimes, electricity systems are likely to be exposed more frequently to more extreme climate conditions than those for which they were designed, and may not operate as intended under changing climate conditions. Utilities, regulators, state energy offices, and other electricity system planners are beginning to conduct environmental risk assessments, develop climate resilience plans, and incorporate changing climate conditions into long-term planning processes. Here, we highlight the analytical resources available for sensitivity assessment of electrical grid components under extreme weather and climate, and identify gaps in the literature on quantitative methods available for assessment of component vulnerability.
Dumas, Melissa↗
Statistically Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification for Physical Parameter Model Calibration with Functional Output
In experiments conducted on the Z-machine at Sandia National Laboratories, dynamic material properties cannot be analyzed using traditional analytic methods, necessitating solving an inverse problem. Bayesian model calibration is a statistical framework for solving an inverse problem to estimate parameters input into a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties. Disentangling input parameter uncertainty and model misspecification is often poorly identified problem. When using computational models for physical parameter estimation, the issue of parameter identifiability must be carefully considered to obtain accurate and precise estimates of physical parameters. Additionally, in dynamic material properties applications, the experimental output is a function, velocity over time. While we can sample an arbitrarily large number of points from the measured velocity, these curves only contain a finite amount of information about the calibration parameters. In this report, we propose modifications to the Bayesian model calibration framework to simplify and improve the estimation of physical parameters with functional outputs. Specifically, we propose scaling the likelihood function by an effective sample size rather than modeling the discrepancy function; and modularizing input nuisance parameters with weakly identified parameters. We evaluate the performance of these proposed methods using a statistical simulation study and then apply these methods to estimate parameters of the tantalum equation of state. We conclude that these proposed methods can provide simple, fast, and statistically valid alternatives to the full Bayesian model calibration procedure; and that these methods can be used to estimate parameters of the equation of state for tantalum.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Quantification of MagLIF Morphology using the Mallat Scattering Transformation
The morphology of the stagnated plasma resulting from Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) is measured by imaging the self-emission x-rays coming from the multi-keV plasma, and the evolution of the imploding liner is measured by radiographs. Equivalent diagnostic response can be derived from integrated rad-MHD simulations from programs such as Hydra and Gorgon. There have been only limited quantitative ways to compare the image morphology, that is the texture, of simulations and experiments. We have developed a metric of image morphology based on the Mallat Scattering Transformation (MST), a transformation that has proved to be effective at distinguishing textures, sounds, and written characters. This metric has demonstrated excellent performance in classifying ensembles of synthetic stagnation images. We use this metric to quantitatively compare simulations to experimental images, cross experimental images, and to estimate the parameters of the images with uncertainty via a linear regression of the synthetic images to the parameter used to generate them. This coordinate space has proved very adept at doing a sophisticated relative back-ground subtraction in the MST space. This was needed to compare the experimental self emission images to the rad-MHD simulation images. We have also developed theory that connects the transformation to the causal dynamics of physical systems. This has been done from the classical kinetic perspective and from the field theory perspective, where the MST is the generalized Green's function, or S-matrix of the field theory in the scale basis. From both perspectives the first order MST is the current state of the system, and the second order MST are the transition rates from one state to another. An efficient, GPU accelerated, Python implementation of the MST was developed. Future applications are discussed.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Status Report on Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis Tools in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework
The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. GDSA Framework is supported by SFWST Campaign and its predecessor the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Development of Innovative Measurement Techniques for Fission Product Transport Quantification
This document provides the progress of a research project at Texas A&M University (TAMU), led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL), in support of the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) program and work scope area of gas-cooled fast reactors. The VTR TAMU INL project started in October 2018. The document includes the main objectives of the project, scaling analysis applied to the experimental facilities, experimental methodology including instrumentation and techniques applied, and up-to-date results from the experimental and numerical studies.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗