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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Doubled CO2 Effects on NO(y) in a Coupled 2D Model

Changes in temperature and ozone have been the main focus of studies of the stratospheric impact of doubled CO2. Increased CO2 is expected to cool the stratosphere, which will result in increases in stratospheric ozone through temperature dependent loss rates. Less attention has been paid to changes in minor constituents which affect the O3 balance and which may provide additional feedbacks. Stratospheric NO(y) fields calculated using the GSFC 2D interactive chemistry-radiation-dynamics model show significant sensitivity to the model CO2. Modeled upper stratospheric NO(y) decreases by about 15% in response to CO2 doubling, mainly due to the temperature decrease calculated to result from increased cooling. The abundance of atomic nitrogen, N, increases because the rate of the strongly temperature dependent reaction N + O2 yields NO + O decreases at lower temperatures. Increased N leads to an increase in the loss of NO(y) which is controlled by the reaction N + NO yields N2 + O. The NO(y) reduction is shown to be sensitive to the NO photolysis rate. The decrease in the O3 loss rate due to the NO(y) changes is significant when compared to the decrease in the O3 loss rate due to the temperature changes.

Rosenfield, J. E.↗

w Mel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change

Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence wMel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on wMel’s thermal sensitivity into a model of Aedes aegypti population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate wMel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont’s thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ammonia Oxidation by the Arctic Terrestrial Thaumarchaeote Candidatus Nitrosocosmicus arcticus Is Stimulated by Increasing Temperatures

Climate change is causing arctic regions to warm disproportionally faster than those at lower latitudes, leading to alterations in carbon and nitrogen cycling, and potentially higher greenhouse gas emissions. It is thus increasingly important to better characterize the microorganisms driving arctic biogeochemical processes and their potential responses to changing conditions. Here, we describe a novel thaumarchaeon enriched from an arctic soil, Candidatus Nitrosocosmicus arcticus strain Kfb, which has been maintained for seven years in stable laboratory enrichment cultures as an aerobic ammonia oxidizer, with ammonium or urea as substrates. Genomic analyses show that this organism harbors all genes involved in ammonia oxidation and in carbon fixation via the 3-hydroxypropionate/4-hydroxybutyrate cycle, characteristic of all AOA, as well as the capability for urea utilization and potentially also for heterotrophic metabolism, similar to other AOA. Ca. N. arcticus oxidizes ammonia optimally between 20 and 28°C, well above average temperatures in its native high arctic environment (-13-4°C). Ammonia oxidation rates were nevertheless much lower than those of most cultivated mesophilic AOA (20-45°C). Intriguingly, we repeatedly observed apparent faster growth rates (based on marker gene counts) at lower temperatures (4-8°C) but without detectable nitrite production. Together with potential metabolisms predicted from its genome content, these observations indicate that Ca. N. arcticus is not a strict chemolithotrophic ammonia oxidizer and add to cumulating evidence for a greater metabolic and physiological versatility of AOA. The physiology of Ca. N. arcticus suggests that increasing temperatures might drastically affect nitrification in arctic soils by stimulating archaeal ammonia oxidation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Effects on the Compressive Behavior of IM7/PET15 Laminates

The effect of changing operating temperature on the compressive response of IM7/PETI5 composite laminates is investigated within this paper. The three temperatures evaluated for this study were 129 C, 21 C, and 177 C, a spectrum from cryogenic to an elevated operating temperature. Laminate compressive strength property testing was conducted using the Wyoming Combined Load Compression fixture to generate strength data at the three operating temperatures of interest for several lay-ups. A three-dimensional finite element analysis model of a [90/0]8s composite laminate subject to compressive loading is developed. The model is used to study the key attributes of the laminate that significantly influence the state of stress in the laminate. Both the resin rich layer located between lamina and the thermal residual stresses present in the laminate due to curing are included in the analysis model. For the laminate modeled, the effect of modeling temperature dependent material properties was determined to be insignificant for the operating temperatures studied. Simply using the material properties measured at the operating temperature of interest was sufficient for predicting stresses accurately in a linear analysis for the current problem. The three-dimensional analysis results revealed that the application of an applied compressive axial load in the 0-degree direction decreased the interlaminar stresses present in the laminate initially due to curing. Therefore, failure was concluded not be attributable to the interlaminar stresses in the composite laminate being studied when a compressive load is applied. The magnitude of the measured laminate compressive strength change with a change in temperature is concluded to be dominated by the change in the lamina compressive axial strength with a change in temperature.

Walker, Sandra Polesky↗

Linking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization

Significance Microbes regulate nutrient flux and carbon storage within ecosystems, making them essential to the global carbon cycle and ecosystem responses to climate change. Understanding how climate change will alter microbial communities and how this will feed back to influence the pace of climate change requires linking processes across levels of organization, from individual organisms to whole ecosystems. We show that the physical characteristics (traits) of protist species influence how their populations will respond to changes in temperature. These species-level temperature responses also alter the composition, dynamics, and functioning of whole microbial communities. Using traits to understand how complex, multilevel microbial processes change with temperature can help us anticipate possible consequences of rapid global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics of human-climate feedbacks differ at different radiative forcing levels

The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. These feedbacks may also exert significant changes on 21st-century energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections, but little is known about their possible magnitudes, or about regional and sector dynamics under different forcing scenarios. Here we use an integrated Earth System Model (ESM) featuring bidirectional information exchange between an economically-oriented integrated assessment model and the ESM to examine how human-natural feedbacks operate under high and medium radiative forcing (RF) scenarios. Specifically, we examine the effect of changing land productivity on human systems, and the effect of changing land use/land cover and CO2 emissions on the Earth system. We find that the effect of coupling differs across radiative forcing levels and across regions, due to differences in the climate signal, human responses to those signals, and regional characteristics. In particular, we find reductions in cropland area due to feedbacks in both the medium and high RF scenarios. In the medium RF scenario, these reductions result in increased area for bioenergy and afforestation and reduced energy system CO2 emissions, as the carbon price in this scenario incentivizes low carbon energy sources and terrestrial carbon storage; these incentives are absent in the high RF scenario. These differences are key to understanding the possible future evolution pathways of the integrated Earth system in response to 21st century climate change. Additional models and hypothesis testing are needed to determine exactly when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments.

Calvin, Katherine V.↗

Magnetic Stirling cycles - A new application for magnetic materials

There is the prospect of a fundamental new application for magnetic materials as the working substance in thermodynamic cycles. Recuperative cycles which use a rare-earth ferromagnetic material near its Curie point in the field of a superconducting magnet appear feasible for applications from below 20 K to above room temperature. The elements of the cycle, advanced in an earlier paper, are summarized. The basic advantages include high entropy density in the magnetic material, completely reversible processes, convenient control of the entropy by the applied field, the feature that heat transfer is possible during all processes, and the ability of the ideal cycle to attain Carnot efficiency. The mean field theory is used to predict the entropy of a ferromagnet in an applied field and also the isothermal entropy change and isentropic temperature change caused by applying a field. Results are presented for J = 7/2 and g = 2. The results for isentropic temperature change are compared with experimental data on Gd. Coarse mixtures of ferromagnetic materials with different Curie points are proposed to modify the path of the cycle in the T-S diagram in order to improve the efficiency or to increase the specific power.

Brown, G. V.↗

Molecular column densities in selected model atmospheres

Molecular column densities are presented for 35 molecules in a variety of cool stellar model atmospheres. From an examination of the predicted column densities, we draw the following conclusions: (1) OH might be visible in carbon stars which have been generated from triplet-alpha burning, but will be absent from carbon stars generated from the CNO bi-cycle; (2) the TiO/ZrO ratio shows small but interesting variations as C/O is changed and as the effective temperature is changed; (3) the column density of silicon dicarbide (SiC2) is sensitive to abundance, temperature, and gravity; hence, all relationships between the strength of SiC2 and other stellar parameters will show appreciable scatter. There is, however, a substantial luminosity effect present in the SiC2 column densities; (4) unexpectedly, SiC2 is anticorrelated with C2; (5) the presence of SiC2 in a carbon star allows us to eliminate the possibility that these stars are both 'hot' (T sub eff greater than or equal to 3000 K) and have been produced through the CNO bi-cycle (so that C/H is less than solar).

Johnson, H. R.↗

Inference of Global Mean Temperature Trend and Climate Change from MSU and AMSU

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) radiometers flown on the NOAA operational satellite series are potentially valuable as global temperature monitoring devices. Spencer and Christy pioneered the analysis of mid-tropospheric temperature, given by MSU Channel 2 (Ch 2) at 53.74 GHz, to derive the global temperature trend. Also, in addition to monitoring global temperature, these microwave radiometers have the potential to reveal interannual climate signals in tropics. We have analyzed the data of MSU Ch 2 and AMSU Ch 5 (53.6 GHz) from the NOAA operational satellites for the period 1980 to 2000, utilizing the NOAA calibration procedure. The data are corrected for the satellite orbital drift based on the temporal changes of the on-board warm blackbody temperature. From our analysis, we find that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 Kdecade(sup -1) during 1980 to 2000. From an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the MSU global data, we find that the mid-tropospheric temperature in middle and high latitudes responds to the ENSO forcing during the Northern Hemisphere Winter in a distinct manner. This mid-latitude response is opposite in phase to that in the tropics. This result is in accord with simulations performed with an ECMWF global spectral model. This study shows a potential use of the satellite observations for climatic change.

Prabhakara, Cuddapah↗

Ozone mitigates extended growing season and enhanced vegetation greenness driven by environmental change

Rising temperature and elevated CO 2 concentrations lead to extended growing seasons and enhanced vegetation greenness in terrestrial ecosystems, especially across the Northern Hemisphere. However, whether and to what extent surface ozone, an anthropogenic environmental factor, affects vegetation phenology and greenness remains unexplored at a large scale. Integrating ground-based ozone observations with multiple satellite observations, we demonstrate that surface ozone significantly shortened the growing season by delaying start of season and advancing end of season. Additionally, ozone reduced growing-season vegetation greenness, as reflected in decreased annual accumulated Enhanced Vegetation Index and maximum Enhanced Vegetation Index. These impacts show pronounced spatial heterogeneity, varying in magnitude across the United States, Europe, and China over the past decade, highlighting ozone’s diverse impact on vegetation across regions. Our study predicts that continuously increasing surface ozone concentration will mitigate warming-driven lengthening the growing season by 2 to 4 days, reduce maximum Enhanced Vegetation Index by 0.4% to 8.3%, and reduce annual accumulated Enhanced Vegetation Index by 1.0% to 5.6% in 2050 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 scenario. Our findings highlight the imperative need for strategic surface ozone regulation to optimize vegetation health and maximize the capacity for carbon sequestration.

Yin, Hao [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United ↗

Bimaterial Thermal Compensators for WGM Resonators

Bimaterial thermal compensators have been proposed as inexpensive means of preventing (to first order) or reducing temperature-related changes in the resonance frequencies of whispering-gallery-mode (WGM) optical resonators. A bimaterial compensator would apply, to a WGM resonator, a pressure that would slightly change the shape of the resonator and thereby change its resonance frequencies. Through suitable choice of the compensator dimensions and materials, it should be possible to make the temperature dependence of the pressure-induced frequency shift equal in magnitude and opposite in sign to the temperature dependence of the frequency shift of the uncompensated resonator so that, to first order, a change in temperature would cause zero net change in frequency.

Savchenkov, Anatoliy↗

Fault-Tolerant, Multiple-Zone Temperature Control

A computer program has been written as an essential part of an electronic temperature control system for a spaceborne instrument that contains several zones. The system was developed because the temperature and the rate of change of temperature in each zone are required to be maintained to within limits that amount to degrees of precision thought to be unattainable by use of simple bimetallic thermostats. The software collects temperature readings from six platinum resistance thermometers, calculates temperature errors from the readings, and implements a proportional + integral + derivative (PID) control algorithm that adjusts heater power levels. The software accepts, via a serial port, commands to change its operational parameters. The software attempts to detect and mitigate a host of potential faults. It is robust to many kinds of faults in that it can maintain PID control in the presence of those faults.

Granger, James↗

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Munasinghe, L.↗

Research and development program for the development of advanced time-temperature dependent constitutive relationships. Volume 1: Theoretical discussion

The results of a 10-month research and development program for the development of advanced time-temperature constitutive relationships are presented. The program included (1) the effect of rate of change of temperature, (2) the development of a term to include time independent effects, and (3) improvements in computational efficiency. It was shown that rate of change of temperature could have a substantial effect on the predicted material response. A modification to include time-independent effects, applicable to many viscoplastic constitutive theories, was shown to reduce to classical plasticity. The computation time can be reduced by a factor of two if self-adaptive integration is used when compared to an integration using ordinary forward differences. During the course of the investigation, it was demonstrated that the most important single factor affecting the theoretical accuracy was the choice of material parameters.

Cassenti, B. N.↗

Resonant Acoustic Determination of Complex Elastic Moduli

A simple, inexpensive, yet accurate method for measuring the dynamic complex modulus of elasticity is described. Using a 'free-free' bar selectively excited in three independent vibrational modes, the shear modulus is obtained by measuring the frequency of the torsional resonant mode and the Young's modulus is determined from measurement of either the longitudinal or flexural mode. The damping properties are obtained by measuring the quality factor (Q) for each mode. The Q is inversely proportional to the loss tangent. The viscoelastic behavior of the sample can be obtained by tracking a particular resonant mode (and thus a particular modulus) using a phase locked loop (PLL) and by changing the temperature of the sample. The change in the damping properties is obtained by measuring the in-phase amplitude of the PLL which is proportional to the Q of the material. The real and imaginary parts or the complex modulus can be obtained continuously as a function of parameters such as temperature, pressure, or humidity. For homogeneous and isotropic samples only two independent moduli are needed in order to characterize the complete set of elastic constants, thus, values can be obtained for the dynamic Poisson's ratio, bulk modulus, Lame constants, etc.

Brown, David A.↗

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Interannual Variations 1982-1993 - 2

A global run of a process-based methane model [Walter et al., this issue] is performed using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from ECMWF reanalyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions to be 260 Tg/ yr. 25% of methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 deg. N. Only 60% of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands, the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well. The effects of sub-grid scale variations in model parameters and input data are examined. Modeled methane emissions show high regional, seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal cycles of methane emissions are dominated by temperature in high latitude wetlands, and by changes in the water table in tropical wetlands. Sensitivity tests show that +/- 1 C changes in temperature lead to +/- 20 % changes in methane emissions from wetlands. Uniform changes of +/- 20% in precipitation alter methane emissions by about +/- 18%. Limitations in the model are analyzed. Simulated interannual variations in methane emissions from wetlands are compared to observed atmospheric growth rate anomalies. Our model simulation results suggest that contributions from other sources than wetlands and/or the sinks are more important in the tropics than north-of 30 deg. N. In higher northern latitudes, it seems that a large part, of the observed interannual variations can be explained by variations in wetland emissions. Our results also suggest that reduced wetland emissions played an important role in the observed negative methane growth rate anomaly in 1992.

Walter, Bernadette P.↗

Investigating the linkage between simulated precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly based on multi-model and perturbed parameter ensembles

It remains a challenge for climate models to correctly capture the relationship between precipitation and ENSO. This studyexamines the linkage between the simulated precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly during borealwinter based on the multi-model ensemble from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (AMIP5) and perturbedparameter ensemble (PPE) with the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) atmospheric model. The AMIP5 models have large biases insimulating the tropical precipitation anomaly during El Niño, such as the shifts of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The inter-model differences show that the precipitation change in response to seasurface temperature (SST) change increases with enhanced precipitation climatology. The ENSO-related precipitation anomalycan also be related to the spatial distribution of the mean-state precipitation. The simulated ITCZ/SPCZ displacements aresignificantly correlated with the spatial precipitation-SST relationship in the mean state. Models with stronger mean-stateprecipitation-SST relationship also produce stronger SPCZ/ITCZ displacements. The mean-state tropical precipitation also hasstrong impacts on the ENSO-related precipitation anomalies over East Asia. In the BCC PPE, the connection between the mean-state precipitation and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly is overall consistent with that in AMIP5. Parameters associated withthe low-cloud and deep convection processes are the most influential ones for the precipitation simulations in BCC. Comparedwith the version in AMIP5, the new BCC model can better simulate the precipitation climatology and the relationship betweenENSO and precipitation over southern China. These results have important implications for model development and model-basedclimate predictions.

Yang, Ben↗

Metrology for femtosecond pulsed x-ray heating in diamond anvil cell experiments at the European XFEL: Revisiting the iron phase diagram up to 150 GPa

The development of pulsed intense x-ray sources, such as free electron laser, offers new avenues for high pressure experiments. Here, we study the feasibility and metrology of x-ray heating in diamond anvil cells at the European x-ray free electron laser. This method enables one to volumetrically heat the sample while inhibiting chemical migration and probing the crystallographic structure of the sample throughout the heating with a high repetition rate. We focus our study on iron, whose phase diagram is well established up to 100 GPa, to explore the possibilities and limitations of this technique. We volumetrically heat iron samples at starting pressures ranging from 10 to 138 GPa, using the x-ray beam pulsed at 4.5 MHz in a serial pump-and-probe experimental design. Experimental challenges arise from temperature gradients within the sample, changes in temperature at the 100 ns timescale, the difficulty of direct temperature estimates, the effect of thermal pressure, and the presence of metastable crystallites due to rapid cycles of heating and cooling. Hence, we develop a multi-crystal-like data processing method that allows us to account for sample heterogeneity in probed conditions. We then calibrate our measurements using known physical properties of iron under pressure. Thermal pressure in our experiments increases from 4% of the isochoric prediction at 10 GPa to 23% at 138 GPa, and we show that our data are in agreement with most previous observations of iron in this pressure range. The method can now be implemented at higher pressures and temperatures and on materials with unknown phase diagrams.

Materials science↗