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Second Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation Structure and Storm Intensity With a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) Mission Applications Workshop

The NASA Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission is a constellation of state-of-the-science observing platforms that will measure temperature and humidity soundings and precipitation with spatial resolution comparable to current operational passive microwave (PMW) sounders but with unprecedented temporal resolution (Mission Website).1 TROPICS is a cost-capped ($30.2 million), Venture-class mission funded by the NASA Earth Science Division (ESD) and led by Principal Investigator Dr. William Blackwell from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL). The mission consists of a constellation of six, three-unit (3U) CubeSats (approximately 10×10×34 cm), each hosting a 12-channel PMW spectrometer based on the Micro-sized Microwave Atmospheric Satellite-2 (MicroMAS-2) developed at MIT LL, but with a substantially improved design. TROPICS will provide imagery near 91 and 205 GHz, temperature sounding near 118 GHz, and moisture sounding near 183 GHz. Spatial resolution at nadir will be around 27 km for temperature and 17 km for moisture and precipitation with a swath width of approximately 2,000 km from a 550-km orbit altitude. Both the spatial resolution and swath width are similar to the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) that is being flown as part of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). In addition, TROPICS meets many of the requirements outlined in the 2007 Decadal Survey for the Precision and All-Weather Tempera-ture and Humidity (PATH) mission, which was originally envisioned as a microwave instrument in geostationary orbit. TROPICS enables temporal resolution approaching that of geostationary orbit but at a much lower cost, demonstrating a technology that could impact the design of future Earth-observing missions. The satellites for the TROPICS mission were delivered to NASA in 2019 for launches planned in the 2021–2022 timeframe. The primary mission objective of TROPICS is to relate temperature, humidity, and precipitation structure to the evolution of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity.

remote sensing↗

Application of NEAMS Codes to Capture MSR Phenomena

This report documents work completed in FY21 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program’s Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Application Drivers activity at Argonne. The common focus was on identifying the modeling and simulation functional requirements for designing, licensing, and operating MSRs and applying those capabilities already developed in NEAMS tools to example problems of interest. The four main parts of this report each focuses on a specific area of simulation physics as it relates to MSR phenomena: fuel evolution, chemistry, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and systems analysis. In terms of fuel evolution, which includes depletion, decay, on-line separations, and transmutation, the current state of computational capabilities for modeling this behavior in liquid-fueled molten salt reactor is discussed. Some of the functional requirements to accomplish the various applications of MSR fuel depletion modeling are highlighted, followed by a summary of recent approaches and code development activities. The chemistry functional requirements were discussed in the context of several applications of high importance for MSRs, such as corrosion, salt chemistry, and species transport. Each of these types of chemistry modeling have considerable impact on various aspects of reactor applications, including informing on reactor designs, improving operational efficiencies, analyzing safety and reactivity concerns, and estimating the mechanistic source term of the reactor. A brief overview is also provided on code development activities ongoing under NEAMS relevant to chemistry modeling of MSRs. In terms of CFD applications, the state-of-the-art spectral element code, Nek5000 was used to model the fluid dynamics within a full core of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) concept designed as part of the Euratom EVOL project. This concept was selected as the challenge problem because of its similar features to several U.S. industry concepts. The goal was to model some of the fast MSR design challenges, including potential large internal re-circulations, the need of accurate tracking of delayed neutron precursors (DNP), and the lack of relevant thermal-hydraulics models/correlations, etc. Therefore, a series of CFD models were created for the MSFR core cavity using a k – τ model two-equation model for the turbulence. These first full core results demonstrated that any potential recirculation zones could be properly identified with the current NEAMS CFD capabilities. The development of these models will also set the stage for future testing of Nek5000’s functionalities to model other MSR thermal-fluid phenomena. Lastly, the validation of SAM against experimental data from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment, which started in FY19, continues with the inclusion of modeling the reactivity insertion tests. This involved using SAM and its point kinetics model for flowing fuel salt to recreate the time dependent power changes and response after positive reactivity insertions at the 1, 5, and 8 MWt power levels. Through these exercises, several code modifications were suggested to the SAM development team and accommodated to enable closer agreement with solid technical and physical justifications. These include adding a moderator reactivity feedback coefficient as an available input and modifying the solution approach for the point kinetics model. Additional SAM development suggestions for flowing fuel MSRs include adding the capability to allow the moderator power change proportionally with the reactor power and enabling specification of the power and DNP distributions separately.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗

Tandem particle-slurry batch reactors for solar water splitting (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Economically, particle slurry reactors are projected to be one of the most promising technologies for solar photoelectrochemical hydrogen production, according to a 2009 techno-economic analysis commissioned by the US DOE and performed by Directed Technologies, Inc. The Fuel Cell Technologies Office’s Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration (MYRD&D) goals and targets are to reduce the cost of H 2 produced from renewable sources at the plant gate (i.e. not including delivery, dispensing, or storage) to < $2.00/gge, equivalent to ~$2.00/kg H 2 . Research results from our techno-economic modeling research suggest that this target could be met using particle slurry reactors assuming STH efficiencies in the range of 5 – 10%, materials lifetimes of < 1 year, and nanoparticles that cost up to 20 times more than projected costs of TiO 2 -coated Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles. Although most large worldwide research efforts directed at solar photoelectrochemical hydrogen production focus on wafer-based designs, the projected lower cost for a particle slurry reactor at these disparate projected STH efficiencies clearly suggests that particle slurry reactors could be a scalable and deployable technology, assuming several challenges are overcome. These major technological challenges include the demonstration of a vertically-stacked-vessel architecture that is capable of operating sustainably while mostly relying on diffusion and natural convection to mix the redox shuttles between the vessels, and the demonstration that photocatalyst particles can operate at an overall 1% STH efficiency or larger when incorporated into this two-vessel design. Our research adds to the understanding of photocatalytic reactors for solar water splitting through numerical modeling results and experimental results. Numerical models were developed to simulate relevant device physics including particle and reactor dimensions which affect optical, transport, and rheological properties, electrocatalytic and photovoltaic properties of particles at various temperatures, and properties of redox shuttles and separators. Moreover, theoretical maximum solar-to-hydrogen efficiencies for ensembles of particles like in photocatalyst reactors were modeled and simulated and shown to equal or exceed those of photoelectrochemical designs under most scenarios. These results help determine constraints on the reactor that will enable more optimal designs for future prototypes. In parallel, experiments were performed to identify the most effective redox shuttles and to empirically validate the numerical models and simulations. Toward the latter, state-of-the-art light-absorbing particles and electrocatalysts were synthesized and characterized physically and photoelectrochemically for water electrolysis and redox chemistry with redox shuttles in the form factor of mesoporous electrodes and free-floating particles. The most promising materials candidates were used in a suspension reactor to evaluate performance toward photocatalytic H 2 production and results from the two measurements were compared. Predominantly, state-of-the-art cocatalyst-modified Rh-doped SrTiO 3 and BiVO 4 particles were further characterized to assess for their ability to perform visible-light-driven H 2 and O 2 evolution, respectively, and results were similar to those reported for the state-of-the-art in the peer-reviewed literature. Outcomes from this work inform the public of the effectiveness and promise of solar photocatalytic water splitting for clean and renewable hydrogen production. This work may also help increase research interest and funding for photocatalysis projects, which will accelerate development of a technology that will benefit the public by generating fuel while emitting few greenhouse gases and pollutants.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Evolution of attached and detached slabs and their associated mantle dynamics

Over the two years of the NASA grant, this project has produced a significant amount of research results related to the plate subduction process and the surface crustal deformation at convergent boundaries (i.e., above subduction zones). While some research objectives are completely accomplished, other research tasks remain active and continue to be investigated at present. A steady state analytic thermal model for subducting slabs was used to examine the torques acting on a descending slab. It is found that gravitational torque vanishes when a slab is dipping either vertically or horizontally, unlike previous studies indicating that the magnitude of gravitational torque decreases as dip angle increases. Subsequently, a new time-dependent, analytic thermal model for a subducting slab was developed. The new model enables us to study transient phenomena associated with plate subduction analytically. On the basis of this model, the nature of slab dip angles was evaluated. Slab dip angles are found to be transient features. As they penetrate into the mantle and increase their lengths, the associated gravitational torque also increases resulting in a downward pulling of the slab to the steeper dip angle. This is especially true once a slab penetrates the olivine-spinel phase boundary at about 400 km depth. However, if the phase transformation does not follow the equilibrium condition, the gravitational torque may have a different behavior. This problem was investigated. Except for fast descending slabs, non-equilibrium phase transformation can only slow down the transient increase of slab dip angles discussed earlier. Its effect is not sufficiently strong to reverse the downward pulling for most of the slabs. However, when slabs subducting at 10 cm/yr or faster, a sufficient amount of metastable olivine can exist beneath 400 km. Because of its low density compared with the surrounding spinel, an upward buoyancy is produced resulting in an upward bending of the slab and possibly an upward rotation of the slab such that smaller dip angles are formed. Seismic studies of the Japanese Slab seem to support this interpretation. The development of oroclinal geometries at convergent boundaries was also examined to study plate obduction which is an important ingredient to the initiation of plate subduction. Although the study suggests that surface features are better modeled by block models, the large scale deformation can be adequately studied by viscous models. Such a model is now under development to complete our original objective to study the initiation of plate subduction. Finally, a three-dimensional, finite element, spherical convective model is developed to study dynamic plate subductions. The model development is now complete and it is being tested to ensure its proper operation. The model is able to generate convection results with a viscosity contrast of about 100. Our research continues to push the viscosity contrast to a level that is appropriate for a subducting slab.

Hsui, Albert T.↗

MESSENGER at Mercury: Early Orbital Operations

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft, launched in August 2004 under NASA's Discovery Program, was inserted into orbit about the planet Mercury in March 2011. MESSENGER's three flybys of Mercury in 2008-2009 marked the first spacecraft visits to the innermost planet since the Mariner 10 flybys in 1974-1975. The unprecedented orbital operations are yielding new insights into the nature and evolution of Mercury. The scientific questions that frame the MESSENGER mission led to the mission measurement objectives to be achieved by the seven payload instruments and the radio science experiment. Interweaving the full set of required orbital observations in a manner that maximizes the opportunity to satisfy all mission objectives and yet meet stringent spacecraft pointing and thermal constraints was a complex optimization problem that was solved with a software tool that simulates science observations and tracks progress toward meeting each objective. The final orbital observation plan, the outcome of that optimization process, meets all mission objectives. MESSENGER's Mercury Dual Imaging System is acquiring a global monochromatic image mosaic at better than 90%coverage and at least 250 m average resolution, a global color image mosaic at better than 90%coverage and at least 1 km average resolution, and global stereo imaging at better than 80%coverage and at least 250 m average resolution. Higher-resolution images are also being acquired of targeted areas. The elemental remote sensing instruments, including the Gamma-Ray and Neutron Spectrometer and the X-Ray Spectrometer, are being operated nearly continuously and will establish the average surface abundances of most major elements. The Visible and Infrared Spectrograph channel of MESSENGER's Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer is acquiring a global map of spectral reflectance from 300 to 1450 nm wavelength at a range of incidence and emission angles. Targeted areas have been selected for spectral coverage into the ultraviolet with the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS). MESSENGER's Mercury Laser Altimeter is acquiring topographic profiles when the slant range to Mercury's surface is less than 1800 km, encompassing latitudes from 201S to the north pole. Topography over the remainder of the southern hemisphere will be derived from stereo imaging, radio occultations, and limb profiles. MESSENGER's radio science experiment is determining Mercury's gravity field from Doppler signals acquired during frequent downlinks. MESSENGER's Magnetometer is measuring the vector magnetic field both within Mercury's magnetosphere and in Mercury's solar wind environment at an instrument sampling rate of up to 20 samples/s. The UVVS is determining the three-dimensional, time-dependent distribution of Mercury's exospheric neutral and ionic species via their emission lines. During each spacecraft orbit, the Energetic Particle Spectrometer measures energetic electrons and ions, and the Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer measures the energies and mass per charge of thermal plasma components, both within Mercury's magnetosphere and in Mercury's solar-wind environment. The primary mission observation sequence will continue for one Earth year, until March 2012. An extended mission, currently under discussion with NASA, would add a second year of orbital observations targeting a set of focused follow-on questions that build on observations to date and take advantage of the more active Sun expected during 2012-2013. MESSENGER's total primary mission cost, projected at $446 M in real-year dollars, is comparable to that of Mariner 10 after adjustment for inflation.

Planetary Science↗

Synthesis, Processing, and Use of Isotopically Enriched Epitaxial Oxide Thin Films

Isotopic engineering has emerged as a key approach to study the nucleation, diffusion, phase transitions, and reactions of materials at an atomic level. It aims to uncover mass transport pathways, kinetics, and operational and failure mechanisms of functional materials and devices. Understanding these phenomena leads to deeper insights into important physical processes, such as the transport of ions in energy conversion and storage devices and the role of active sites and supports during heterogeneous catalytic reactions. Likewise, isotopic engineering is being pursued as a means of modifying functionality to enable future technological applications. In this Account, we summarize our recent work employing isotope labeling (e.g., 18 O 2 and 57 Fe) during thin film synthesis and postgrowth processing to reveal growth mechanisms, defect chemistry, and elemental diffusion under working and extreme conditions. Isotope-resolved analysis techniques with nanometer-scale spatial resolution, such as time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography, facilitate the accurate quantification of isotopic placement and concentration in our well-defined heterostructures with precisely positioned, isotope-enriched layers. By measuring the nanometer-scale redistribution between natural abundance and isotopically enriched oxygen layers during the deposition of Fe 2 O 3 and Cr 2 O 3 by molecular beam epitaxy, we identified intermixing processes driven by surface adatoms occurring both at the film growth surface and within the first few layers below the surface. Further insights into synthesis mechanisms were gained by studying the tungsten oxide thin films grown by evaporating WO 3 powder in the presence of background 18 O 2 , revealing minimal incorporation of background oxygen during the film formation process. Thermal and radiation-enhanced diffusion in epitaxial Fe and Cr oxides were precisely tracked using 18 O and 57 Fe tracer layers incorporated into model epitaxial oxide thin films. This approach has allowed us to access thermal diffusion behavior at lower temperatures than previously measured, revealing a potential changeover in diffusion mechanism. Understanding radiation-enhanced diffusion in model oxides that represent the surface layers on the structural components of nuclear reactors informs our understanding of their corrosion behavior under irradiation. Isotopic labeling can also provide unique insights into the surface exchange reactions and defect chemistry of electrocatalysts. For instance, tracking the change in 18 O concentration at the surface of an epitaxial LaNiO 3 thin film after the electrocatalytic oxygen evolution reaction revealed the participation of lattice oxygen, confirming a hypothesis that had been proposed previously. Lastly, we highlight a new direction wherein we perform in situ processing studies utilizing isotopic tracers in conjunction with model epitaxial thin films within the atom probe tomography instrument. Additionally, this Account illustrates the great potential of isotopic engineering to enable fundamental mechanistic insights into physical processes and engineer functional properties in epitaxial films, heterostructures, and superlattices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MESSENGER at Mercury: Early Orbital Operations

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft, launched in August 2004 under NASA's Discovery Program, was inserted into orbit about the planet Mercury in March 2011. MESSENGER's three flybys of Mercury in 2008-2009 marked the first spacecraft visits to the innermost planet since the Mariner 10 flybys in 1974-1975. The unprecedented orbital operations are yielding new insights into the nature and evolution of Mercury. The scientific questions that frame the MESSENGER mission led to the mission measurement objectives to be achieved by the seven payload instruments and the radio science experiment. Interweaving the full set of required orbital observations in a manner that maximizes the opportunity to satisfy all mission objectives and yet meet stringent spacecraft pointing and thermal constraints was a complex optimization problem that was solved with a software tool that simulates science observations and tracks progress toward meeting each objective. The final orbital observation plan, the outcome of that optimization process, meets all mission objectives. MESSENGER's Mercury Dual Imaging System is acquiring a global monochromatic image mosaic at better than 90% coverage and at least 250 m average resolution, a global color image mosaic at better than 90% coverage and at least 1 km average resolution, and global stereo imaging at better than 80% coverage and at least 250 m average resolution. Higher-resolution images are also being acquired of targeted areas. The elemental remote sensing instruments, including the Gamma-Ray and Neutron Spectrometer and the X-Ray Spectrometer, are being operated nearly continuously and will establish the average surface abundances of most major elements. The Visible and Infrared Spectrograph channel of MESSENGER's Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer is acquiring a global map of spectral reflectance from 300 to 1450 nm wavelength at a range of incidence and emission angles. Targeted areas have been selected for spectral coverage into the ultraviolet with the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS). MESSENGER's Mercury Laser Altimeter is acquiring topographic profiles when the slant range to Mercury's surface is less than 1800 km, encompassing latitudes from 20 deg. S to the north pole. Topography over the remainder of the southern hemisphere will be derived from stereo imaging, radio occultations, and limb profiles. MESSENGER's radio science experiment is determining Mercury's gravity field from Doppler signals acquired during frequent downlinks. MESSENGER's Magnetometer is measuring the vector magnetic field both within Mercury's magnetosphere and in Mercury's solar wind environment at an instrument sampling rate of up to 20 samples/s. The UVVS is determining the three-dimensional, time-dependent distribution of Mercury's exospheric neutral and ionic species via their emission lines. During each spacecraft orbit, the Energetic Particle Spectrometer measures energetic electrons and ions, and the Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer measures the energies and mass per charge of thermal plasma components, both within Mercury's magnetosphere and in Mercury's solar-wind environment. The primary mission observation sequence will continue for one Earth year, until March 2012. An extended mission, currently under discussion with NASA, would add a second year of orbital observations targeting a set of focused follow-on questions that build on observations to date and take advantage of the more active Sun expected during 2012-2013. MESSENGER's total primary mission cost, projected at $446 M in real-year dollars, is comparable to that of Mariner 10 after adjustment for inflation.

mercury↗

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗

Simulation and Analysis on Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) under SBLOCA scenario by using Cardinal to support the fracture mechanics analyses

The structural components that comprise nuclear reactors and their supporting structures are subjected to harsh operating environments that can challenge their integrity, especially after exposure for extended durations or under accident condition. As one of the most significant components of a Reactor, the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is exposed to an aggressive environment during the operation time (e.g. more than 40 years). Ageing degradation mechanisms (e.g. thermos-fatigue) could grow initial defects up to a critical size, increasing the susceptibility to failure in the RPV. The conventional methods are mostly based on simple crack and structure geometries. Very limited studies consider the real conditions of the RPV subjected to a thermal shock due to a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). During a LOCA event, the most severe conditions take place when the emergency core cooling (ECC) water is injected inside the cold legs filled initially with hotter water and/or steam. The rapid cooling of the down-comer and the internal RPV surface followed probably by re-pressurization of the RPV causes large temperature gradients and variation of pressure which induces thermal-mechanical stresses. In order to develop the model for integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized thermal shock (PTS), a multi-physics simulation, which includes the thermo-hydraulic, thermo-mechanical and fracture mechanics analyses is necessary. The multi-physics simulations are performed using Cardinal, a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and other multi-physics sub-modules within the MOOSE framework. Cardinal now fully supports MOOSE stochastic perturbations of NekRS models with varying boundary conditions, initial conditions, material properties, and any other quantity which is defined by a kernel (such as coefficients in a momentum source model). The implementation is designed in a flexible manner so that scalar values are sent from MOOSE into a user scratch space in NekRS, which can then be applied for any purpose within the NekRS case files (both on the host and device). When modeling PTS, several factors can impact the results significantly. In this report, the impacts of the geometry of the model, Reynolds number and buoyancy effect are investigated. Two geometry, i.e., a simplified model and a realistic RPV model, with both laminar and turbulent flow condition are adopted for the PTS simulation with and without buoyancy effect. The purpose of the investigation is to understand the impact of these factors on the prediction of temperature history of RPV. The accurate prediction on the temperature evolution, which will be exported to Grizzly code for further analyses on the progression of aging mechanisms and their effects on the integrity of RPV structures, is very crucial. Based on the understanding of these factors, a more sophisticated model is built to analysis the PTS under SBLOCA scenario. A literature survey is conducted to pick the SBLOCA scenario for the multi-physics simulation. The analysis helps to explain the form and the transformation of the cold plum when the ECC is activated under SBLOCA. This model can be can be applied to study the PTS effect for different RPV configurations. The results can help to assess structural component degradation for advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An Approach for the Long-Term 30-m Land Surface Snow-Free Albedo Retrieval from Historic Landsat Surface Reflectance and MODIS-based A Priori Anisotropy Knowledge

Land surface albedo has been recognized by the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) as an essential climate variable crucial for accurate modeling and monitoring of the Earth's radiative budget. While global climate studies can leverage albedo datasets from MODIS, VIIRS, and other coarse-resolution sensors, many applications in heterogeneous environments can benefit from higher-resolution albedo products derived from Landsat. We previously developed a "MODIS-concurrent" approach for the 30-meter albedo estimation which relied on combining post-2000 Landsat data with MODIS Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) information. Here we present a "pre-MODIS era" approach to extend 30-m surface albedo generation in time back to the 1980s, through an a priori anisotropy Look-Up Table (LUT) built up from the high quality MCD43A BRDF estimates over representative homogenous regions. Each entry in the LUT reflects a unique combination of land cover, seasonality, terrain information, disturbance age and type, and Landsat optical spectral bands. An initial conceptual LUT was created for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the United States and provides BRDF shapes estimated from MODIS observations for undisturbed and disturbed surface types (including recovery trajectories of burned areas and non-fire disturbances). By accepting the assumption of a generally invariant BRDF shape for similar land surface structures as a priori information, spectral white-sky and black-sky albedos are derived through albedo-to-nadir reflectance ratios as a bridge between the Landsat and MODIS scale. A further narrow-to-broadband conversion based on radiative transfer simulations is adopted to produce broadband albedos at visible, near infrared, and shortwave regimes.We evaluate the accuracy of resultant Landsat albedo using available field measurements at forested AmeriFlux stations in the PNW region, and examine the consistency of the surface albedo generated by this approach respectively with that from the "concurrent" approach and the coincident MODIS operational surface albedo products. Using the tower measurements as reference, the derived Landsat 30-m snow-free shortwave broadband albedo yields an absolute accuracy of 0.02 with a root mean square error less than 0.016 and a bias of no more than 0.007. A further cross-comparison over individual scenes shows that the retrieved white sky shortwave albedo from the "pre-MODIS era" LUT approach is highly consistent (R(exp 2) = 0.988, the scene-averaged low RMSE = 0.009 and bias = −0.005) with that generated by the earlier "concurrent" approach. The Landsat albedo also exhibits more detailed landscape texture and a wider dynamic range of albedo values than the coincident 500-m MODIS operational products (MCD43A3), especially in the heterogeneous regions. Collectively, the "pre-MODIS" LUT and "concurrent" approaches provide a practical way to retrieve long-term Landsat albedo from the historic Landsat archives as far back as the 1980s, as well as the current Landsat-8 mission, and thus support investigations into the evolution of the albedo of terrestrial biomes at fine resolution.

Albedo algorithm↗

Space Launch System Spacecraft and Payload Elements: Progress Toward Crewed Launch and Beyond

While significant and substantial progress continues to be accomplished toward readying the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket for its first test flight, work is already also underway on preparations for the second flight - using an upgraded version of the vehicle - and beyond. Designed to support human missions into deep space, Space Launch System (SLS), is the most powerful human-rated launch vehicle the United States has ever undertaken, and is one of three programs being managed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Exploration Systems Development division. The Orion spacecraft program is developing a new crew vehicle that will support human missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO), and the Ground Systems Development and Operations program is transforming Kennedy Space Center into a next-generation spaceport capable of supporting not only SLS but also multiple commercial users. Together, these systems will support human exploration missions into the proving ground of cislunar space and ultimately to Mars. For its first flight, SLS will deliver a near-term heavy-lift capability for the nation with its 70-metric-ton (t) Block 1 configuration. Each element of the vehicle now has flight hardware in production in support of the initial flight of the SLS, which will propel Orion around the moon and back. Encompassing hardware qualification, structural testing to validate hardware compliance and analytical modeling, progress in on track to meet the initial targeted launch date. In Utah and Mississippi, booster and engine testing are verifying upgrades made to proven shuttle hardware. At Michoud Assembly Facility in Louisiana, the world's largest spacecraft welding tool is producing tanks for the SLS core stage. Providing the Orion crew capsule/launch vehicle interface and in-space propulsion via a cryogenic upper stage, the Spacecraft/Payload Integration and Evolution (SPIE) element serves a key role in achieving SLS goals and objectives. The SPIE element marked a major milestone in 2014 with the first flight of original SLS hardware, the Orion Stage Adapter (OSA) which was used on Exploration Flight Test-1 with a design that will be used again on the first flight of SLS. The element has overseen production of the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS), an in-space stage derived from the Delta Cryogenic Second Stage, which was manufactured at United Launch Alliance in Decatur, Alabama, prior to being shipped to Florida for flight preparations. Manufacture of the Orion Stage Adapter and the Launch Vehicle Stage Adapter (LVSA) took place at the Friction Stir Facility located at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. Marshall is also home to the Integrated Structural Test of the ICPS, LVSA, and OSA, subjecting the stacked components to simulated stresses of launch. The SPIE Element is also overseeing integration of 13 "CubeSat" secondary payloads that will fly on the first flight of SLS, providing access to deep space regions in a way currently not available to the science community. At the same time as this preparation work is taking place toward the first launch of SLS, however, the Space Launch System Program is actively working toward its second launch. For its second flight, SLS will be upgraded to the more-capable Block 1B configuration. While the Block 1 configuration is capable of delivering more than 70 metric tons to low Earth orbit, the Block 1B vehicle will increase that capability to 105 t. For that flight, the new configuration introduces two major new elements to the vehicle - an Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) that will be used for both ascent and in-space propulsion, and a Universal Stage Adapter (USA) that serves as a "payload bay" for the rocket, allowing the launch of large exploration systems along with the Orion spacecraft. Already, flight hardware is being prepared for the Block 1B vehicle. Welding is taking place on the second rocket's core stage. Flight hardware production has begun on booster components. An RS-25 engine slated for that flight has been tested. Development work is taking place on the Exploration Upper Stage, with contracts in place for both the stage and the RL10 engines which will power it. (The EUS will use four RL10 engines, an increase from one on the ICPS.) For the crew configuration of the Block 1B vehicle, the SLS SPIE element is managing the USA and accompanying Payload Adapter, which will accommodate both large payloads co-manifested with Orion and small-satellite secondary payloads. This co-manifested payload capacity will be instrumental for missions into the Proving Ground around the moon, where NASA will test new systems and demonstrate new capabilities needed for human exploration farther into deep space.

Schorr, Andrew A.↗

Coronal Imaging with the Solar Ultraviolet Imager

Coronal imaging capabilities of the Solar UltraViolet Imager (SUVI) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) are investigated. Launched in 2016, GOES-16 is stationed at 75.2 deg W longitude and accommodates both terrestrial and space weather instruments. SUVI is one of two instruments observing the Sun, providing solar images in six extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths: 94A, 131A, 171A, 195A, 284A and 304A. Mounted on a two axis gimballed Sun Pointed Platform (SPP), its 53 arcminute square field of view is nominally Sun-centered to provide high dynamic range images in all six wavelengths every four minutes. Analyses of on-orbit data indicated that SUVI had sufficient dynamic range and sensitivity in the 171A and 195A wavelengths to image the corona to the largest heights above the Sun to date while simultaneously imaging the Sun. The 1.6 megapixel Charge Coupled Device (CCD) detector enables the capture of the fine features of the corona. On-orbit calibration tests requiring movement of the SUVI line-of-sight off the Sun, demonstrated that the resulting dynamic disturbance didn't adversely impact the earth-pointing instrument performance. Combining these factors, we conducted a test to assess the performance of SUVI as an EUV extremely wide-field coronal imager by off-pointing the SPP around the Sun and synthesizing an image that's about 4 times the diameter of the Sun. The capability to perform coronal imaging at these two wavelengths is demonstrated by off-pointing the SUVI boresight to nine locations around the Sun and generating a composite coronal image that extends to approx. 4 solar radii. For this purpose, we exploited the satellite's ability to provide stable, fine pointing, even during the slews. Various exposure durations were considered during the first trial and a composite coronal image is obtained for each wavelength. The results are promising. The off-pointing locations and the exposure duration are being refined for the subsequent trials. The routine use of an ultraviolet solar imager as both an imager and a EUV coronagraph would be the first of its kind and is an exciting development. The on-orbit solar coronagraphs to date provide white light images with fields of view extending from 4-15 solar radii. Earlier, Seaton, et al investigated the evolution of the corona in EUV near the solar surface with the data from the Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) EUV solar telescope on board the Project for On-Board Autonomy 2 (PROBA2). The presence of corona in EUV even to 4 solar radii is not known. The results of these experiments will begin to fill this void.

Tadikonda, Sivakumara K.↗

Coronal Imaging with the Solar Ultraviolet Imager

Coronal imaging capabilities of the Solar UltraViolet Imager (SUVI) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) are investigated. Launched in 2016, GOES-16 is stationed at 75.2 deg W longitude and accommodates both terrestrial and space weather instruments. SUVI is one of two instruments observing the Sun, providing solar images in six extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths: 94A, 131A, 171A, 195A, 284A and 304A. Mounted on a two axis gimballed Sun Pointed Platform (SPP), its 53 arc minute square field of view is nominally Sun-centered to provide high dynamic range images in all six wavelengths every four minutes. Analyses of on-orbit data indicated that SUVI had sufficient dynamic range and sensitivity in the 171A and 195A wavelengths to image the corona to the largest heights above the Sun to date while simultaneously imaging the Sun. The 1.6 megapixel Charge Coupled Device (CCD) detector enables the capture of the fine features of the corona. On-orbit calibration tests requiring movement of the SUVI line-of-sight off the Sun, demonstrated that the resulting dynamic disturbance didn't adversely impact the earth-pointing instrument performance. Combining these factors, we conducted a test to assess the performance of SUVI as an EUV extremely wide-field coronal imager by off-pointing the SPP around the Sun and synthesizing an image that's about 4 times the diameter of the Sun. The capability to perform coronal imaging at these two wavelengths is demonstrated by off-pointing the SUVI boresight to nine locations around the Sun and generating a composite coronal image that extends to approx. 4 solar radii. For this purpose, we exploited the satellite's ability to provide stable, fine pointing, even during the slews. Various exposure durations were considered during the first trial and a composite coronal image is obtained for each wavelength. The results are promising. The off-pointing locations and the exposure duration are being refined for the subsequent trials. The routine use of an ultraviolet solar imager as both an imager and a EUV coronagraph would be the first of its kind and is an exciting development. The on-orbit solar coronagraphs to date provide white light images with fields of view extending from 4-15 solar radii. Earlier, Seaton, et al investigated the evolution of the corona in EUV near the solar surface with the data from the Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) EUV solar telescope on board the Project for On-Board Autonomy 2 (PROBA2). The presence of corona in EUV even to 4 solar radii is not known. The results of these experiments will begin to fill this void.

Tadikonda, Sivakumara K.↗

Space Launch System Spacecraft and Payload Elements: Progress Toward Crewed Launch and Beyond

While significant and substantial progress continues to be accomplished toward readying the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket for its first test flight, work is already underway on preparations for the second flight - using an upgraded version of the vehicle - and beyond. Designed to support human missions into deep space, SLS is the most powerful human-rated launch vehicle the United States has ever undertaken, and is one of three programs being managed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Exploration Systems Development division. The Orion spacecraft program is developing a new crew vehicle that will support human missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO), and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) program is transforming Kennedy Space Center (KSC) into a next-generation spaceport capable of supporting not only SLS but also multiple commercial users. Together, these systems will support human exploration missions into the proving ground of cislunar space and ultimately to Mars. For its first flight, SLS will deliver a near-term heavy-lift capability for the nation with its 70-metric-ton (t) Block 1 configuration. Each element of the vehicle now has flight hardware in production in support of the initial flight of the SLS, which will propel Orion around the moon and back. Encompassing hardware qualification, structural testing to validate hardware compliance and analytical modeling, progress is on track to meet the initial targeted launch date. In Utah and Mississippi, booster and engine testing are verifying upgrades made to proven shuttle hardware. At Michoud Assembly Facility (MAF) in Louisiana, the world's largest spacecraft welding tool is producing tanks for the SLS core stage. Providing the Orion crew capsule/launch vehicle interface and in-space propulsion via a cryogenic upper stage, the Spacecraft/Payload Integration and Evolution (SPIE) element serves a key role in achieving SLS goals and objectives. The SPIE element marked a major milestone in 2014 with the first flight of original SLS hardware, the Orion Stage Adapter (OSA) which was used on Exploration Flight Test-1 with a design that will be used again on the first flight of SLS. The element has overseen production of the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS), an in-space stage derived from the Delta Cryogenic Second Stage, which was manufactured at United Launch Alliance (ULA) in Decatur, Alabama, prior to being shipped to Florida for flight preparations. Manufacture of the OSA and the Launch Vehicle Stage Adapter (LVSA) took place at the Friction Stir Facility located at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. Marshall is also home to the Integrated Structural Test of the ICPS, LVSA, and OSA, subjecting the stacked components to simulated stresses of launch. The SPIE Element is also overseeing integration of 13 "CubeSat" secondary payloads that will fly on the first flight of SLS, providing access to deep space regions in a way currently not available to the science community. At the same time as this preparation work is taking place toward the first launch of SLS, however, the Space Launch System Program is actively working toward its second launch. For its second flight, SLS will be upgraded to the more-capable Block 1B configuration. While the Block 1 configuration is capable of delivering more than 70 t to LEO, the Block 1B vehicle will increase that capability to 105 t. For that flight, the new configuration introduces two major new elements to the vehicle - an Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) that will be used for both ascent and in-space propulsion, and a Universal Stage Adapter (USA) that serves as a "payload bay" for the rocket, allowing the launch of large exploration systems along with the Orion spacecraft. Already, flight hardware is being prepared for the Block 1B vehicle. Welding is taking place on the second rocket's core stage. Flight hardware production has begun on booster components. An RS-25 engine slated for that flight has been tested. Development work is taking place on the EUS, with contracts in place for both the stage and the RL10 engines which will power it. (The EUS will use four RL10 engines, an increase from one on the ICPS.) For the crew configuration of the Block 1B vehicle, the SLS SPIE element is managing the USA and accompanying Payload Adapter, which will accommodate both large payloads co-manifested with Orion and small-satellite secondary payloads. This co-manifested payload capacity will be instrumental for missions into the proving ground around the moon, where NASA will test new systems and demonstrate new capabilities needed for human exploration farther into deep space.

Schorr, Andrew A.↗

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗

Science Benefits of Onboard Spacecraft Navigation

Primitive bodies (asteroids and comets), which have remained relatively unaltered since their formation, are important targets for scientific missions that seek to understand the evolution of the solar system. Often the first step is to fly by these bodies with robotic spacecraft. The key to maximizing data returns from these flybys is to determine the spacecraft trajectory relative to the target body-in short, navigate the spacecraft- with sufficient accuracy so that the target is guaranteed to be in the instruments' field of view. The most powerful navigation data in these scenarios are images taken by the spacecraft of the target against a known star field (onboard astrometry). Traditionally, the relative trajectory of the spacecraft must be estimated hours to days in advance using images collected by the spacecraft. This is because of (1)!the long round-trip light times between the spacecraft and the Earth and (2)!the time needed to downlink and process navigation data on the ground, make decisions based on the result, and build and uplink instrument pointing sequences from the results. The light time and processing time compromise navigation accuracy considerably, because there is not enough time to use more accurate data collected closer to the target-such data are more accurate because the angular capability of the onboard astrometry is essentially constant as the distance to the target decreases, resulting in better "plane-of- sky" knowledge of the target. Excellent examples of these timing limitations are high-speed comet encounters. Comets are difficult to observe up close; their orbits often limit scientists to brief, rapid flybys, and their coma further restricts viewers from seeing the nucleus in any detail, unless they can view the nucleus at close range. Comet nuclei details are typically discernable for much shorter durations than the roundtrip light time to Earth, so robotic spacecraft must be able to perform onboard navigation. This onboard navigation can be accomplished through a self- contained system that by eliminating light time restrictions dramatically improves the relative trajectory knowledge and control and subsequently increases the amount of quality data collected. Flybys are one-time events, so the system's underlying algorithms and software must be extremely robust. The autonomous software must also be able to cope with the unknown size, shape, and orientation of the previously unseen comet nucleus. Furthermore, algorithms must be reliable in the presence of imperfections and/or damage to onboard cameras accrued after many years of deep-space operations. The AutoNav operational flight software packages, developed by scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under contract with NASA, meet all these requirements. They have been directly responsible for the successful encounters on all of NASA's close-up comet-imaging missions (see Figure !1). AutoNav is the only system to date that has autonomously tracked comet nuclei during encounters and performed autonomous interplanetary navigation. AutoNav has enabled five cometary flyby missions (Table!1) residing on four NASA spacecraft provided by three different spacecraft builders. Using this software, missions were able to process a combined total of nearly 1000 images previously unseen by humans. By eliminating the need to navigate spacecraft from Earth, the accuracy gained by AutoNav during flybys compared to ground-based navigation is about 1!order of magnitude in targeting and 2!orders of magnitude in time of flight. These benefits ensure that pointing errors do not compromise data gathered during flybys. In addition, these benefits can be applied to flybys of other solar system objects, flybys at much slower relative velocities, mosaic imaging campaigns, and other proximity activities (e.g., orbiting, hovering, and descent/ascent).

Autonomy↗

Modeling Efforts to Gain Insight into Historical Leak Events from the Single-Shell Tank A-105 in the Hanford 241-A Tank Farm - 20113

The 241-A Tank Farm is a single-shell tank (SST) farm constructed to store process waste from Hanford nuclear operations. Millions of gallons of nuclear waste were stored in the 241-A Tank Farm SSTs and some of the SSTs leaked in the past. In addition, spills and pipeline leaks during transfers and storage and intentional discharges to cribs and trenches resulted in releasing waste to the ground. Tank liner leaks are referred to as 'leaks' and all other discharges to the soil are referred to as 'releases.' Liquid waste that could be removed by pumping has been removed from all of the SSTs to reduce the potential for future leaks. The most significant historical leak event in 241-A Tank Farm occurred in 1965 when tank A-105 experienced a pressurized steam event. This event resulted in damage to the inner steel liner flooring of A-105, which was separated from the sidewalls over part of its circumference and buckled up to 2.5 m, vertically. During this event up to 7,570 L of contaminated liquid may have leaked to the adjacent soil. This leak occurred under extreme temperature and pressure conditions. Modeling efforts to better understand the nature and extent of historical leaks from subsurface SSTs that were used to store highly radioactive, self-boiling liquid wastes at 241-A Tank Farm have recently been undertaken. These efforts have compiled the available historical information to support a preliminary non-isothermal, multiphase flow and chemical transport modeling effort to re-create the conditions under which the leaks occurred and to formulate a conceptual model as to the extent and distribution of leaked radioactive contaminants in the adjacent soil material. The focus of this work was on developing an understanding of the key features, processes and bounding conditions related to tank A-105 leak events that occurred in the 1960's. The activities include estimation of leak composition, non-isothermal multiphase flow and transport modeling, and geochemical modeling. The STOMP{sup C} Water-Air-Energy modeling code was utilized to implement the three-dimensional representation of the subsurface tank and the surrounding flow field. Once constructed, the model was used to evaluate the conceptual understanding of leaks originating from different parts of the tank under the elevated temperature boundary conditions that were imposed by surrounding tanks at the time of the historical leaks. The chemical evolution of the liquid waste was also evaluated as it leaked from the tank under transient pressure and temperature gradients. The results of the preliminary evaluation suggested the presence of a heat-pipe effect beneath tank A-105 in which water vapor at an elevated temperature is driven away from the base of the tank to a position where water vapor cools, condenses and is then drawn back toward the tank by the strong capillary attraction of the dry soil. A non-sorbing contaminant (Tc-99) was introduced into this flow field to better understand the potential distribution patterns of leaked contaminants that may have occurred during the historical leak events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗