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DOE OSTI2023

Forecasting Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance for Puerto Rico Using the WRF Model and NSRDB

Accurately predicting solar energy resources is a major challenge in integrating photovoltaics generation on the electric grid. Numerical weather prediction has been recognized by the solar energy community as a major approach to provide solar resource forecasts at various locations and for a variety of timescales. In this study, as a part of the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100), we develop day-head solar irradiance forecast data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 3 km and hourly/5-minute. The global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts simulated from the WRF model are postprocessed by a simple optimization method using satellite-derived gridded observations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to reduce error and bias of the solar irradiance forecasts covering 2018-2020. The NSRDB contributes to improving the GHI and DNI forecasts and also offers the opportunity for an in-depth analysis to evaluate their accuracy over a wide range of Puerto Rico regions. Preliminary results show overall improvements of GHI forecasts up to 37% (DNI: 15%) for mean absolute error and 97% (DNI: 76%) for mean bias error by applying a postprocessing technique to WRF model output.

data models↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pricing and Energy Trading in Peer-to-Peer Zero Marginal-Cost Microgrids

Efforts to utilize 100% renewable energy in community microgrids require new approaches to energy markets and transactions to efficiently address periods of scarce energy supply. In this paper we contribute to the promising approach of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading in two main ways: analysis of a centralized, welfare-maximizing economic dispatch that characterizes optimal price and allocations, and a novel P2P system for negotiating energy trades that yields physically feasible and at least weakly Pareto-optimal outcomes. Our main results are 1) that optimal pricing is insufficient to induce agents with batteries to take optimal actions, 2) a novel P2P algorithm to addresses this while keeping private information, 3) a formal proof that this algorithm converges to the centralized solution in the case of two agents negotiating for a single period, and 4) numerical simulations of the P2P algorithm performance with up to 10 agents and 24 periods that show it converges on average to total welfare within 0.1% of the social optimum in on the order of 10s to 100s of iterations, increasing with the number of agents, time periods, and total storage capacity.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) - Beta Version [Slides]

Due to high fossil fuel imports, high electricity rates, an unreliable electricity grid, and 100% renewable electricity goals, demand response can play a crucial role for the Puerto Rico electricity grid. The Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) is a spreadsheet-based tool in which users can estimate the potential impacts of demand response, energy efficiency, and VRE and storage adoption in Puerto Rico from 2021 through 2040. The tool includes projections for solar, wind, and battery adoption based on released RFPs and energy targets (including Act-17 2019) to generate a projected net load profile for each hour through 2040. Based on user inputs and default assumptions, the tool also projects load profile impacts of demand response and energy efficiency, and is specifically focused on highlighting projected demand response technical potential. This demand response technical potential can be used by local utilities, regulators, program administrators, or researchers to help design demand response programs for larger impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wind Energy Costs in Puerto Rico Through 2035

In 2019, Puerto Rico codified into law a 100% renewable electricity by 2050 target. Decision makers there need information about the costs and performance of wind energy technologies to incorporate into planning efforts for the future grid. After consulting with key technical stakeholders and accounting for unique conditions in Puerto Rico like increased hurricane risks, we customize NREL's Renewable Energy Potential model to calculate how capital expenditures, operational expenditures, net annual energy generation, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) vary in time and space for wind energy projects around Puerto Rico. Wind turbines can add value by providing grid services through grid-forming inverters and complement solar energy generation with evening and nighttime electricity production, especially offshore. By 2035, we expect average costs of land-based and offshore wind energy in Puerto Rico to reach $\$$69/MWh (6.9 cents/kWh) and $\$$100/MWh (10 cents/kWh), respectively. While these projections do not include transmission system upgrade costs, they do suggest that low-cost, clean electricity is possible for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing data-based modeling with low life cycle GHG emissions algae biofuels for engine optimization

Aquatic microalgae are a highly promising feedstock for the production of biocrude and tailored biofuels, with distinct advantages over traditional terrestrial crops, such as reduced land use and avoidance of food production competition. However, unlocking their full potential requires the development of biofuels with low life cycle greenhouse emissions biofuels, such as algae biofuels, which can significantly reduce the environmental impact of the transportation systems without requiring a complete overhaul of existing engine technology. In this study, we employ cutting-edge data-based AI modeling techniques to optimize the performance of heavy-duty engines, with a focus on transitioning towards biofuels with low life cycle greenhouse emissions biofuels. Our methodology offers significant advantages over traditional sweep testing, enabling efficient and accurate optimization of engine performance with minimal time and resources consumption. Our findings demonstrate the potential of utilizing this approach, with up to 55% NOx emissions reductions and up to 2% reduction in fuel consumption compared to the baseline optimized point. Moving forward, we plan to utilize a 30% blend of algae biofuels with diesel fuel, with the ultimate goal of achieving up to 60% lifecycle GHG emissions. Lastly, we plan to compare the results with 100% renewable biodiesel to add an additional dimension of investigating the impact of fuel chemistry on engine optimization. Overall, this study underscores the vital importance of biofuels for reducing the carbon footprint of the transportation sector and supporting a sustainable future. By harnessing the power of data-based AI modeling with low life cycle greenhouse emissions biofuels, we can accelerate the adoption of more environmentally friendly transportation systems and reduce their impact on the planet. Our findings contribute to this transition and offer insights for developing efficient and effective strategies for addressing global climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

PR100: Estimated Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Adoption and Load Estimation in Puerto Rico through 2050

The 2-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Study analyzed stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico’s clean energy future. Outputs relating to electricity demand modeling were partially informed by estimates of electric vehicle adoption across all classes of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), and the ensuing charging loads. To create these estimates, the team developed a transportation model for MHDVs in Puerto Rico to estimate the amount and geospatial distribution of energy used. Charging schedules for the different end uses of MHDVs were then used to construct electric load shapes assuming a portion of those vehicles would be replaced by battery electric counterparts. Study results showed that, by 2050, electric vehicles may constitute roughly 50% of the MHDV population in Puerto Rico. The resulting electrical demand curve attributable to MHDV charging showed that, for solar energy-based electrical systems with limited energy storage, this demand may create challenges unless appropriately managed either on the demand or supply side.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: Bainbridge Island, Washington: Cohort 2 Technical Assistance: Improving Resilience

The City of Bainbridge Island (COBI) applied for and received technical assistance from the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) in part to achieve their goal of 100% renewable electricity generation by 2040, five years ahead of the Washington State goal. Their second goal of increasing energy resilience is discussed in this report. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) completed the technical analysis aspects of the project, supported by the community partner Spark Northwest and the program administrator, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). PNNL worked with the Community Lead and stakeholders to ensure selection of hazards and energy infrastructure of highest priority and integration of existing expertise into the analysis. We have also worked to align analysis with current activities conducted by Puget Sound Energy (PSE), and other efforts within the Bainbridge Island community around resilience. This report, conducted under the ETIPP project in partnership with COBI, aims to build on this existing knowledge base with a specific energy focus, to identify hazards and threats to critical energy infrastructure, summarize the risk, and identify and analyze remaining resilience gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

C2C Expert Match Technical Assistance: City of Reading, Pennsylvania [Slides]

The City of Reading, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is the main city in the Greater Reading Area and the county seat of Berks County, with a population of approximately 95,112 as of 2020. Historically a disinvested manufacturing community, it has a poverty rate of around 40%, a housing stock averaging 90 years old, and an owner-occupied housing rate below 40%. In 2019, Reading adopted a resolution to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050. The city aims to transition residential, small commercial, and small manufacturing sectors to renewable energy for electricity and heating, bypassing natural gas. This C2C Expert Match aimed to improve the energy efficiency and comfort of older rowhomes in Reading, which often rely on home heating oil and lack cooling systems. A representative energy model of a typical rowhome was developed to evaluate retrofit strategies focused on reducing overheating risk, as well as the potential impacts of heat pump installation. Additionally, resources such as case studies and best practices on energy efficiency, thermal resilience, and electrification retrofits were gathered to support the implementation of effective measures in the community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hanover LED Streetlight Conversion

On May 8, 2017, Hanover residents voted overwhelmingly to transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2030 and heating, cooling and transportation by 2050. In so doing, we became the first municipality in the country to make this commitment by popular vote. To accomplish these goal town leaders developed a plan to address first transitioning municipal energy uses to renewable forms of energy, through on-site generation of the municipal electrical load, load reduction through energy efficiency improvements to town facilities and infrastructure. Significant progress has been accomplished in the generation of energy with 90%+ of the 2024 municipal load being offset by generation and through various energy efficiency projects. The utility owned street lighting was identified as a large energy consumer of 165 MWh annually (7% of the annual municipal load) due to old inefficient high-pressure sodium and mercury vapor streetlights with no ability to reduce wattage during periods with low lighting needs. The Hanover LED Streetlight Replacement Project replaced utility owned streetlights with town owned controllable (dimmable and trimmable) LED lights that can be adjusted by location and time of night. Coupled with ownership of the streetlights transfer to the town, the town’s share of the project pay back is 11 months and for the complete project including federal share the payback is approximately 3 years. With the completion of lighting upgrade, the annual streetlighting energy load has dropped by 60% to 67 MWh in the first year of operation (7/1/24 - 6/30/25). This amounts to an approximate $90,000 annual savings or a local 1% tax rate impact. Additionally, over 200,000 pounds of CO2 will be saved annually.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Community engagement in the development of bioenergy projects from cellulosic urban waste feedstock in Hawaii for sustainable aviation fuel

The purpose of the research project was to reveal the perceptions of residents and communities of the City and County of Honolulu concerning bioenergy projects, feedstock, and sustainable aviation fuel. The perception study was conducted via community-scale surveys, interviews, and town meetings to gather feedback on the preliminary design of a proposed bioenergy project, including feedstock choice and the need for sustainable aviation fuel in Hawaii. Residents on the west side of Oahu were targeted due to their proximity to the proposed plant site location. Findings from this study aim to identify resident perceptions, understanding, and desire for bioenergy projects and new infrastructure to, improve the energy efficiency and sustainability of Hawaiian islands. While Hawaii has created policies and mandates to move toward 100% renewable energy sources by 2045, the focus has been predominately on renewable electricity, largely overlooking other sustainable energy options such as sustainable aviation fuel. There is a lack of research on the community engagement and perceptions of Hawaiian residents on bioenergy projects and sustainable aviation fuel, contributing to the low adoption of bioenergy projects on the islands. Insights from this study aim to add literature on the need for community engagement in the design process, the importance of accepting new sustainable infrastructure, and the production and use of sustainable aviation fuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grand challenges in the design, manufacture, and operation of future wind turbine systems

Abstract. Wind energy is foundational for achieving 100 % renewable electricity production, and significant innovation is required as the grid expands and accommodates hybrid plant systems, energy-intensive products such as fuels, and a transitioning transportation sector. The sizable investments required for wind power plant development and integration make the financial and operational risks of change very high in all applications but especially offshore. Dependence on a high level of modeling and simulation accuracy to mitigate risk and ensure operational performance is essential. Therefore, the modeling chain from the large-scale inflow down to the material microstructure, and all the steps in between, needs to predict how the wind turbine system will respond and perform to allow innovative solutions to enter commercial application. Critical unknowns in the design, manufacturing, and operability of future turbine and plant systems are articulated, and recommendations for research action are laid out. This article focuses on the many unknowns that affect the ability to push the frontiers in the design of turbine and plant systems. Modern turbine rotors operate through the entire atmospheric boundary layer, outside the bounds of historic design assumptions, which requires reassessing design processes and approaches. Traditional aerodynamics and aeroelastic modeling approaches are pressing against the limits of applicability for the size and flexibility of future architectures and flow physics fundamentals. Offshore wind turbines have additional motion and hydrodynamic load drivers that are formidable modeling challenges. Uncertainty in turbine wakes complicates structural loading and energy production estimates, both around a single plant and for downstream plants, which requires innovation in plant operations and flow control to achieve full energy capture and load alleviation potential. Opportunities in co-design can bring controls upstream into design optimization if captured in design-level models of the physical phenomena. It is a research challenge to integrate improved materials into the manufacture of ever-larger components while maintaining quality and reducing cost. High-performance computing used in high-fidelity, physics-resolving simulations offer opportunities to improve design tools through artificial intelligence and machine learning, but even the high-fidelity tools are yet to be fully validated. Finally, key actions needed to continue the progress of wind energy technology toward even lower cost and greater functionality are recommended.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unprecedented Analysis of LA’s Clean Energy Transformation

Jurisdictions like the City of Los Angeles are boldly establishing ambitious energy objectives—and NREL can be a key partner in informing these transitions.The City of Los Angeles is one of several U.S. local governments setting monumental, measurable goals to transform their energy economies. At the direction of its City Council, LA has embarked on a plan to modernize its electricity system infrastructure—aiming for a 100% renewable energy supply by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles.

LA100↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy Snapshot - Guyana

This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape for Guyana, a country on the northern mainland of South America that is culturally tied to the Caribbean. In the Nationally Determined Contributions, Guyana has committed to develop a mix of wind, solar, biomass and hydro-power to supply both demand of the national grid and the energy requirements for towns and villages in Guyana’s hinterland. Guyana has set an ambitious target of achieving close to 100% renewable energy in the power sector by 2025.

44 EE - Strategic Programs, Energy Transition Init↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Representation in Power System Models

Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.

capacity expansion models↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Hydrogen Load Modeling Method for Integrated Hydrogen Energy System Planning: Preprint

The integrated hydrogen energy system incorporates hydrogen energy into the power grid, which has been recognized as a promising option for reaching a 100% renewable electricity supply. It can make a profit because the hydrogen produced can be sold as fuel or used to generate electricity for grid services. In this paper, we develop a planning model for the integrated hydrogen energy system that considers the uncertainty of the load demand, the renewable energy generation, and the market prices. To calculate the hydrogen load, we simulate the refueling operations at a hydrogen fueling station over the course of one day. Moreover, the long-term profitability of the integrated system under both cur-rent and future conditions is compared in the planning results.

active distribution network↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Local Parameters of PERC Solar Cells Metallized with Screen Printed Cu-Paste

For 40 TW of PV required to transition our planet to 100% renewables, the silver (Ag) should disappear from PV production. Advantages of copper (Cu) over silver (Ag) include: 1) bulk Cu has a similar conductivity to Ag (1.7 one millionth O-cm for Cu, 1.6 one millionth O-cm for Ag, and 2) Cu is -100 times cheaper than Ag, making it an excellent potential replacement. Problems associated with copper contacts include: 1) easy oxidation, and 2) diffusion into the Si cell and recombination activity. To summarize: 1) Rs map shows some regions with very high Rs, indicating no contact in those areas; 2) the histogram shows the peak Rs -5 ohm.cm2, which explains the high FF loss due to Rs; and 3) DLIT indicates non-uniformity in J01 and J02.

copper↗

DOE OSTI2024

Agrivoltaics: Solar Farming for a Greener Future

Resilient, secure, diversified, and disaster-hardened energy systems are critical to Puerto Rico's clear energy future. This presentation builds on NREL's PR100 One Year Progress Summary Report, discussing the intersection of land availability, PV capacity growth, and the potential role of agrivoltaics in contributing to Puerto Rico's 100% renewable energy goal and agricultural sector resilience. An overview of the state-of-the-science in agrivoltaics is provided, including the NREL InSPIRE Puerto Rican pilot project on hurricane-resistant, shade-grown agrivoltaic coffee. Agrivoltaics is discussed in the context of food-energy resilience for island nations, and future research & development needs are highlighted.

agrivoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guam: Pursuing a Sustainable Energy Future

The island of Guam is located in the Pacific Ocean more than 6,000 miles west of the California coast. In the face of tropical storms, rising energy prices, and mandates for power plant retirement, Guam is increasing energy security and resilience while making significant progress on its path to 100% renewable energy. Over the past 10 years, Guam's renewable energy production has grown to serve over 11% of it's power needs with more planned.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗