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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1980

Polar process and world climate /A brief overview/

A review is presented of events relating polar regions to the world climate, the mechanisms of sea ice and polar ice sheets, and of two theories of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. The sea ice which varies over time scales of one or two years and the polar ice sheets with time changes measured in tens or hundreds of thousands of years introduce two distinct time constants into global time changes; the yearly Arctic sea ice variations affect northern Europe and have some effect over the entire Northern Hemisphere; the ice-albedo coupling in the polar ice sheets is involved in major climatic events such as the Pleistocene ice ages. It is concluded that climate problems require a global approach including the atmosphere, the oceans, and the cryosphere.

Goody, R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Participation in the GISS EOS Proposal

To model the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, Research Assistant Veronique Bugnion developed a snowpack model which embodies a physically based approach to modeling the temperature and density distribution of a snow, firn, and ice mixture. The snowpack model performed satisfactorily in capturing the surface energy balance and melt amounts measured at stations in Greenland and Antarctica. Also a comparison between the predicted extent of the wet snow zone obtained with the model and the same quantity derived from satellite microwave measurements showed excellent agreement. In addition the model's simulated total runoff was close to the best estimates from observations for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Ms. Bugnion and research scientist Andrei Sokolov coupled the snowpack model to the climate submodel of MIT's Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and integrated forward over the 21st century for a range of climate change scenarios, using forcings from simulations with the IGSM. The changes in mass balance of the ice caps were then translated into changes in sea level. For the scenarios with small to moderate warming, the runoff from Greenland and Antarctica is minimal. For the scenarios with a larger warming, there is a net increase in sea-level of 2-3 cm from Greenland, and a decrease of between 2 and 5 cm from Antarctica. These results show that the net change in sea level which can be expected to follow climatic changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, a decrease of 2 to 4 cm or less by the end of the 21st century, is smaller than most previously published estimates.

Stone, Peter H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Illuminating Albedo: Using MOSAiC Data to Assess the CERES Cloud Radiative Swath (CRS) Albedo Quantification Process

Increasing surface and lower tropospheric air temperatures as a result of rising greenhouse gases are expected to be most pronounced over the Arctic. Such rapid changes alter the surface climate of the region, and impacts can be observed atmospherically, oceanographically, and biogeophysically. Accurately quantifying the impact of decreasing surface albedo on the surface energy budget with satellite observations alone is complicated by a lack of shortwave radiation during winter and seasonal/spatial heterogeneity of surface type and associated spectral albedo. NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project features the Cloud Radiative Swath (CRS) product, which builds upon the Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product by using the NASA Langley Fu-Liou radiative transfer model to calculate a robust and high-quality array of surface and atmospheric radiative fluxes on an instantaneous, footprint-level scale. This study aims to use MOSAiC and CRS data to illuminate potential uncertainties in the CERES albedo production process, with goals of determining 1) spectral albedo under clear sky conditions when stratified by ice concentration, 2) the uncertainty associated with CERES surface albedo “history maps” when compared against observations captured during MOSAiC, and 3) the magnitude of variation between meteorological inputs compared to those from MOSAiC.

Emily Monroe↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Effect of Climate Change on Ozone Depletion through Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapour

Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone depletion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But climate change may additionally influence Arctic ozone depletion through changes in the water vapor cycle. Here we investigate this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause temperatures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratospheric water vapor budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased water vapor. Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, resulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapor and hence an increased transport of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor concentration in the polar regions determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reactions on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results indicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends critically on water vapor variations which are forced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not been taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under climate change conditions.

Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Arctic Sea Ice and Its Role in Global Change

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. Sea ice forms, grows, and melts in the ocean. Sea ice grows during the fall and winter and melts during the spring and summer. Sea ice can melt completely in summer or survive multiple years. Sea ice can be classified by stages of development (thickness and age), that is, first-year sea ice (ice thickness typically <1.8 m) and multiyear sea ice (ice thickness typically >1.8 m). Sea ice occurs in both hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, sea ice develops in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding bodies including Hudson and Baffin Bay, Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Greenland Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk (sea ice can be observed as far south as Bohai Bay, China, ~38°N). In the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice only develops around Antarctica, reaching a maximum equatorward extension at around ~55°S).

Liu, Jiping↗
NASA NTRS2023

Arctic Warming in Response to Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions

This study examines the Arctic surface air temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions using three fully coupled chemistry–climate models: National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Earth System Model version 1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL-CM3) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies-ModelE version 2. Each of these models was used to perform a series of aerosol perturbation experiments, in which emissions of different aerosol types (sulfate, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon) in different northern mid-latitude source regions, and of biomass burning aerosol over South America and Africa, were substantially reduced or eliminated. We find that the Arctic warms in nearly every experiment, the only exceptions being the U.S. and Europe BC experiments in GFDL-CM3 in which there is a weak and insignificant cooling. The Arctic warming is generally larger than the global mean warming (i.e. Arctic amplification occurs), particularly during non-summer months. The models agree that changes in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport are the most important factor explaining the spread in Arctic warming across experiments: the largest warming tends to coincide with the largest increases in moisture transport into the Arctic. In contrast, there is an inconsistent relationship (correlation) across experiments between the local radiative forcing over the Arctic and the simulated Arctic warming, with this relationship being positive in one model (GFDL-CM3) and negative in the other two. Our results thus highlight the prominent role of poleward energy transport in driving Arctic warming and amplification, and suggest that the relative importance of poleward energy transport and local forcing/feedbacks is likely to be model dependent.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2007

Trends in the Sea Ice Cover Using Enhanced and Compatible AMSR-E, SSM/I and SMMR Data

Arguably, the most remarkable manifestation of change in the polar regions is the rapid decline (of about -10 %/decade) in the Arctic perennial ice cover. Changes in the global sea ice cover, however, are more modest, being slightly positive in the Southern Hemisphere and slightly negative in the Northern Hemisphere, the significance of which has not been adequately assessed because of unknown errors in the satellite historical data. We take advantage of the recent and more accurate AMSR-E data to evaluate the true seasonal and interannual variability of the sea ice cover, assess the accuracy of historical data, and determine the real trend. Consistently derived ice concentrations from AMSR-E, SSM/I, and SMMR data were analyzed and a slight bias is observed between AMSR-E and SSM/I data mainly because of differences in resolution. Analysis of the combine SMMR, SSM/I and AMSR-E data set, with the bias corrected, shows that the trends in extent and area of sea ice in the Arctic region is -3.4 +/- 0.2 and -4.0 +/- 0.2 % per decade, respectively, while the corresponding values for the Antarctic region is 0.9 +/- 0.2 and 1.7 .+/- 0.3 % per decade. The higher resolution of the AMSR-E provides an improved determination of the location of the ice edge while the SSM/I data show an ice edge about 6 to 12 km further away from the ice pack. Although the current record of AMSR-E is less than 5 years, the data can be utilized in combination with historical data for more accurate determination of the variability and trends in the ice cover.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Radiative Impacts of Further Arctic Sea Ice Melt: Using past Observations to Inform Future Climate Impacts

The Arctic region has seen dramatic changes over the past several decades, from polar amplification of global temperature rise to ecosystem changes to the decline of the sea ice. While there has been much speculation as to when the world will see an ice-free Arctic, the radiative impacts of an eventual disappearance of the Arctic sea ice are likely to be significant regardless of the timing. Using CERES radiation and microwave satellite sea ice data, Pistone et al (2014) estimated the radiative forcing due to albedo changes associated with the Arctic sea ice retreat over the 30 years of the satellite data record. In this study, we found that the Arctic Ocean saw a decrease in all-sky albedo of 4% (from 52% to 48%), for an estimated increase in solar heating of 6.4 W/m(exp 2) between 1979 and 2011, or 0.21 W/m(exp 2) when averaged over the globe. This value is substantial--approximately 25% as large as the forcing due to the change in CO2 during the same period. Here we update and expand upon this previous work and use the CERES broadband shortwave observations to explore the radiative impacts of a transition to completely ice-free Arctic Ocean. We estimate the annually-averaged Arctic Ocean planetary albedo under ice-free and cloud-free conditions to be 14% over the region, or approximately 25% lower in absolute terms than the Arctic Ocean cloud-free albedo in 1979. However, the question of all-sky conditions (i.e. including the effects of clouds) introduces a new level of complexity. We explore several cloud scenarios and the resultant impact on albedo. In each of these cases, the estimated forcing is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. We describe the relative contributions of ice loss by month as well as the spatial distributions of the resulting changes in absorbed solar energy. The seasonal timing and location—in addition to magnitude—of the altered solar absorption may have significant implications for atmospheric and ocean dynamics in the Arctic and at lower latitudes; this observationally-based estimate of the large-scale characteristics of an ice-free Arctic thus provides a valuable tool to complement and validate model-based assessments of future climate.

Pistone, K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change: Relative Importance of Low- and High-Latitude Temperature Changes - 2

Using a variety of GCM experiments with various versions of the GISS model, we investigate how different aspects of tropospheric climate changes affect the extratropical Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) circulation indices. The results show that low altitude changes in the extratropical latitudinal temperature gradient can have a strong impact on eddy forcing of the extratropical zonal wind, in the sense that when this latitudinal temperature gradient increases, it helps force a more negative AO/NAO phase. In addition, local conditions at high latitudes can stabilize/destabilize the atmosphere, inducing negative/positive phase changes. To the extent that there is not a large temperature change in the tropical upper troposphere (either through reduced tropical sensitivity at the surface, or limited transport of this change to high levels), the changes in the low level temperature gradient can provide the dominate influence on the extratropical circulation, so that planetary wave meridional refraction and eddy angular momentum transport changes become uncorrelated with potential vorticity transports. In particular, the climate change that produces the most positive NAO phase change would have substantial warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the Pacific Ocean, with high latitude warming in the North Atlantic. An increase in positive phase of these circulation indices is still more likely than not, but it will depend on the degree of tropical and high latitude temperature response and the transport of low level warming into the upper troposphere. These are aspects that currently differ among the models used for predicting the effects of global warning, contributing to the lack of consensus of future changes in the AO/NAO.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

Miller, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of shortlived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, ten global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO2, CH4, the solar constant, BC and SO4). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (± 0.6) for the SO4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except BC. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO2.

greenhouse gases↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Future Pathways for Arctic Forest Fires

Wildfires are expected to become more common and more severe in the Arctic states due to climate change. Main cause for the fires is human activity, even in the boreal and Arctic forests. Therefore, activities such forest management and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness, can have a significant impact on future wildfire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of these factors we have created pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 for the Arctic states. We explore high and low fire activity and risk pathways for all the Arctic states and suggest most our best guess pathways for each state separately. The low activity and fire risk pathway assumes active fire suppression via population participation and official land management, efficient fuel treatments to reduce fire risk, and active firefighting. The high activity and fire risk pathway assumes the opposite due to lack of government and community response, with addition of lacking response to climate-driven changes to wildfire risks. In the Nordic countries, human ignition sources, such as timber extraction, tourism, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In addition to these in Canada and Alaska, expansion of agriculture increases the likelihood of open burning of agricultural waste, increasing risk of the fire spreading to wildlands. Drier fuels due to climate change increase the risk of fires, and there is a growing risk of extreme heat conditions, creating favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra (specifically grassland) fires, with potential to occur in hard-to-reach locations for firefighting. In short, policy actions and education play a crucial role in future wildfire management and adaptation.

Future↗
NASA NTRS2005

Space Technologies for Enhancing the Resilience and Sustainability of Indigenous Reindeer Husbandry in the Russian Arctic

To adapt successfully to the major changes - climate, environment, economic, social and industrial - which have taken place across the Arctic. in recent years, indigenous communities such as reindeer herders must become increasingly empowered with the best available technologies to add to their storehouse of traditional knowledge. Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters critical to the characterization of pasture quality and migratory routes, such as vegetation distribution, snow cover, infrastructure development, and pasture damages due to fires. This paper describes a series of remote sensing capabilities, which are useful to reindeer husbandry, and gives the results of the first year of a project, "Reindeer Mapper", which is a remote sensing and GIs-based system to bring together space technologies with indigenous knowledge for sustainable reindeer husbandry in the Russian Arctic. In this project, reindeer herders and scientists are joining together to utilize technologies to create a system for collecting and sharing space-based and indigenous knowledge in the Russian Arctic. The "Reindeer Mapper" system will help make technologies more readily available to the herder community for observing, data collection and analysis, monitoring, sharing, communications, and dissemination of information - to be integrated with traditional, local knowledge. This paper describes some of the technologies which comprise the system including an intranet system to enable to the team members to work together and share information electronically, remote sensing data for monitoring environmental parameters important to reindeer husbandry (e.g., SAR, Landsat, AVHRR, MODIS), indigenous knowledge about important environmental parameters, acquisition of ground- based measurements, and the integration of all useful data sets for more informed decision-making.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

ERS-1 SAR backscatter changes associated with ice growing on shallow lakes in Arctic Alaska

Spatial and temporal backscatter intensity (sigma(sup o)) variations from ice growing on shallow lakes during winter 1991-92 near Barrow, NW Alaska, have been quantified for the first time using ERS-I C-band SAR data acquired at the Alaska SAR Facility. A field and laboratory validation program, including measurements of the thickness and structure-stratigraphy of the ice, indicates that sigma(sup o) values are strongly dependent on whether the ice freezes to the lake bottom, or remains afloat. Backscatter intensity decreases significantly when the ice grounds on the bottom. Strong backscatter from floating ice is attributed to a specular ice-water interface and vertically oriented tubular bubbles. During the spring thaw, backscatter undergoes a reversal; sigma(sup o) values from ice that was grounded increase, while sigma(sup o) values from ice that was afloat decrease. This phenomenon has not previously been reported.

Jeffries, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Yearly Variation in Fall-Winter Arctic Winter Vortex Descent

Using the change in HALOE methane profiles from early September to late March, we have estimated the minimum amount of diabatic descent within the polar which takes place during Arctic winter. The year to year variations are a result in the year to year variations in stratospheric wave activity which (1) modify the temperature of the vortex and thus the cooling rate; (2) reduce the apparent descent by mixing high amounts of methane into the vortex. The peak descent amounts from HALOE methane vary from l0km -14km near the arrival altitude of 25 km. Using a diabatic trajectory calculation, we compare forward and backward trajectories over the course of the winter using UKMO assimilated stratospheric data. The forward calculation agrees fairly well with the observed descent. The backward calculation appears to be unable to produce the observed amount of descent, but this is only an apparent effect due to the density decrease in parcels with altitude. Finally we show the results for unmixed descent experiments - where the parcels are fixed in latitude and longitude and allowed to descend based on the local cooling rate. Unmixed descent is found to always exceed mixed descent, because when normal parcel motion is included, the path average cooling is always less than the cooling at a fixed polar point.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Updating the results of glacier contribution to the sea level change

I have completed an update of global glacier volume change. All data of glacier annual mass balances, surface area over the period 1945/46 till 2004, outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were included in this update. As the result global glacier volume change have been calculated, also in terms of glacier contribution to sea level change. These results were sent to Working Group 1 and 2 of IPCC-4 as the basis for modeling of sea level towards the end of 2100. In this study I have concentrated on studying glacier systems of different scales, from primary (e.g. Devon ice cap) to regional (e.g. Canadian Arctic), continental scale (e,g., entire Arctic), and global (e.g., change in glacier volume and contribution to sea level rise).

Dyurgerov, Mark B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Covariance Between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds Within Atmospheric State Regimes at the Satellite Footprint Level

Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The ICESat-2 Mission: Concept, Pre-Launch Activities, and Opportunities

Ice sheet and sea level changes have been explicitly identified as a priority in the President's Climate Change Science Program, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, the 4th Assessment Report of the IPee and other national and international policy documents. Following recommendations from the National Research Council for an ICESat follow-on mission, the ICESat-2 mission is now under development for launch in early 2016. The primary aims of the ICESat-2 mission are to continue measurements of sea-ice thickness change, and ice sheet elevation changes at scales from outlet glaciers to the entire ice sheet as established by ICES at. In contrast to ICES at, ICESat-2 will employ a 6-beam micro-pulse laser photon-counting approach. The current concept uses a high repetition rate (10 kHz; equivalent to 70 cm on the ground) low-power laser in conjunction with single-photon sensitive detectors to measure range using approximately 532nm (green) light. The concept will enable the generation of seasonal maps of ice sheet elevation of Greenland and Antarctica, monthly maps of sea ice thickness of the polar ocean, a dense map of land elevation (2 km track spacing at the equator after two years) enabling the determination of canopy height, as well as ocean heights. While the mission has been optimized for cryospheric science and vast amount of high precision elevation measurements taken over land and over the ocean as well as of the atmosphere will provide scientists with a wealth of opportunities to explore the utility of ICESat-2. Those will range from the retrieval of cloud properties, to river stages, to snow cover, to land use changes and more. The presentation will review the measurement concept and physical principles of ICESat-2, current and planned activities to assess instrument performance and develop geophysical algorithms, as well as potential opportunities outside the main objectives of ICESat-2.

Markus, Thorsten↗