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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty analysis of Resource Demand Model for Covid-19

As part of the Department of Energy response to the novel coronavirus pandemic of 2020, a modeling effort was sponsored by the DOE Office of Science. One task of this modeling effort at Sandia was to develop a model to predict medical resource needs given various patient arrival scenarios. Resources needed include personnel resources (nurses, ICU nurses, physicians, respiratory therapists), fixed resources (regular or ICU beds and ventilators), and consumable resources (masks, gowns, gloves, face shields, sedatives). This report documents the uncertainty analysis that was performed on the resource model. The uncertainty analysis involved sampling 26 input parameters to the model. The sampling was performed conditional on the patient arrival streams that also were inputs to the model. These patient arrival streams were derived from various epidemiology models and had a significant effect on the projected resource needs. In this report, we document the sampling approach, the parameter ranges used, and the computational workflow necessary to perform large-scale uncertainty studies for every county and state in the United States.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Convolutional Neural Networks for Signal Detection

Currently, traditional methods such as short-term average/long-term average (STA/LTA) are used to detect arrivals in three-component seismic waveform data. Accurately establishing the identity and arrival of these waves is helpful in detecting and locating seismic events. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been shown to significantly improve performance at local distances. This work will expand the use of CNNs to more remote distances and lower magnitudes. Sandia National Labs (SNL) will explore the advantages and limits of a particular approach and investigate requirements for expanding this technique to different types, distances, and magnitudes of events in the future. The team will describe detailed performance results of this method tuned on a curated dataset from Utah with its expert-defined arrival picks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Negative Muon Count for the FNAL Muon g-2 Experiment

The primary goal of the FNAL Muon g-2 Experiment, located in Batavia, IL, USA, is to measure the anomalous magnetic dipole moment, a μ = (g-2)/2, of a muon to a precision of 0.14 ppm. Initial results from the experiment confirm a discrepancy between the experimental value of the muon anomaly compared with the theoretical value first discovered by the Brookhaven Muon g-2 Experiment in 2001. This discrepancy hints at new physics. However, running the experiment with negative muons is essential in order to verify the experimental value of the muon anomaly. As neither experiments nor simulation studies pertaining to the muon anomaly have been performed with negative muons, the goal of this work is to estimate the rates of negative muons arriving at the FNAL Muon g-2 experiment so that scientists can estimate the time required to run the experiment with negative muons. In order to do this, we performed several simulations of the Muon Campus, which delivers muons to the FNAL Muon g-2 Experiment, using the G4Beamline v. 3.06 at the National Energy Research Computing Center. We performed separate simulations for different sections of the muon campus, and simulations were repeated twice, once for negative muons and once for positive muons. An initial 10 9 protons were shot on target for both the negative and positive muon simulations. We found that the rate of negative muons arriving at the experiment was 0.549 times the rate of positive muons arriving at the experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Partial Reflection Paths for Infrasound Analysis

Numerical methods enabling simulation of scattered and partially reflected infrasonic propagation paths produced by interaction with fine-scale structure in the middle atmosphere have been implemented in the infraGA ray tracing software. This capability enables simulation of ensonification in the classical stratospheric “shadow zone” that has been observed during the Humming Roadrunner and LSECE surface explosion campaigns as well as in other data sets. In the case of LSECE, a pair of stations roughly 140 kilometers east of the source location observed arrivals with celerities (horizontal group velocities) slightly slower than observed stratospheric paths at similar azimuths. The arrivals exhibited increasing trace velocity later in the wavetrain indicating a steepening of the arrival path for longer or slower propagation paths. Simulation of partially reflected paths using the updated infraGA software methods finds good agreement between observed and predicted infrasonic ensonification at these locations within the stratospheric shadow zone. Further development of the partial reflection physics and comparison with other data sets is needed to more robustly understand how such anomalous infrasonic signals can be predicted; however, the demonstration of this capability is a promising first step in such analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Locating Partial Discharges in Power Transformers with Convolutional Iterative Filtering

The most common source of transformer failure is in the insulation, and the most prevalent warning signal for insulation weakness is partial discharge (PD). Locating the positions of these partial discharges would help repair the transformer to prevent failures. This work investigates algorithms that could be deployed to locate the position of a PD event using data from ultra-high frequency (UHF) sensors inside the transformer. These algorithms typically proceed in two steps: first determining the signal arrival time, and then locating the position based on time differences. This paper reviews available methods for each task and then propose new algorithms: a convolutional iterative filter with thresholding (CIFT) to determine the signal arrival time and a reference table of travel times to resolve the source location. The effectiveness of these algorithms are tested with a set of laboratory-triggered PD events and two sets of simulated PD events inside transformers in production use. Tests show the new approach provides more accurate locations than the best-known data analysis algorithms, and the difference is particularly large, 3.7X, when the signal sources are far from sensors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Design of a Simple Flyer Plate Launcher

The response of materials to shock loading is important to understand for a variety of applications. When shock physics emerged during and after WWII, direct explosive loading or explosively driven plate impact was the primary tool for these studies. Subsequent decades have seen the widespread use of large caliber guns for plate impact studies, laser-shock facilities and pulsed power facilities. INL currently lacks a gun suitable for plate impact or explosives casting and machining facilities; however, it does possess explosives use and handling capabilities. An option for performing plate impact experiments was needed, therefore continuum scale models were utilized to explore a few simple donor-acceptor explosive plane wave lens designs, one of which could be hand packed with plastic explosives to launch flyer plates. 2D simulations were performed to study different geometries in an effort to minimize the difference in shock arrival across the central portion of a small copper flyer plate. A shock wave arrival time difference under 50 ns across 50 percent of the center of the flyer was achieved with a few designs. This work summarizes the computational models and results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Jet timing

The measurement of the arrival time of a particle, such as a lepton, a photon, or a pion, reaching the detector provides valuable information. A similar measurement for a hadronic final state, however, is much more challenging as one has to extract the relevant information from a collection of particles. In this paper, we explore various possibilities in defining the time of a jet through the measurable arrival times of the jet constituents. We find that a definition of jet time based on a transverse momentum weighted sum of the times of the constituents has the best performance. For prompt jets, the performance depends on the jet trajectory. For delayed jets, the performance depends on the trajectory of the jet, the trajectory of the mother particle, and the location of the displaced vertex. Compared to the next-best-performing jet time definition, the transverse momentum weighted sum has roughly a factor of ten times better jet time resolution. We give a detailed discussion of the relevant effects and characterize the full geometrical dependence of the performance. These results highlight the critical importance of using a proper definition of jet time with its corresponding detector-dependent calibration and the exciting possibility of deepening our understanding of jets in the time domain.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High fidelity simulations of contaminant dispersion in an urban environment with comparison to magnetic resonance imaging measurements

The dispersion of a contaminant in an urban environment has the potential to impact a large population of people. In this work, a complex urban canopy flow based on the Oklahoma City downtown business district circa 2003 is studied using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and high-fidelity Large Eddy Simulations (LES). MRI is a novel experimental technique that can provide high-resolution measurements in four dimensions (three spatial and temporal) for lab scale models. The experiments and simulations use the same geometry and boundary conditions providing a one-to-one comparison of the two methods. Results are presented on the time-averaged velocity and concentration fields, the temporal dynamics of the concentration plumes for a transient release, and a novel Cloud Identification Algorithm that can separate plumes produced by periodic contaminant releases used for ensemble averaging over many releases. The MRI and LES datasets both include millions of measurement voxels and the comparisons highlight the complex 3D nature of the flow including strong vertical velocities in spanwise street canyons and flow acceleration in streamwise street canyons. The concentration fields are qualitatively similar albeit the LES shows larger dispersion. A quantitative analysis with performance measures compares the datasets pointwise and demonstrates that the two 3D datasets are similar with respect to many measures including a fractional bias of 0.02 (ideal=0.0), correlation coefficient of 0.87 (ideal = 1.0), and the fraction points within a factor of 2 is 0.98 (ideal = 1.0). Plume analysis compares the arrival and residence time of contaminant and is found to vary significantly with location within the urban environment with arrival times between 0 and 1.25 and differences within the contaminant cloud less than 10% at most locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Catalytic resonance theory for the kinetics of photon-promoted catalysis

The illumination of catalytic surfaces with a continuous or pulsed stream of photons dynamically modulates surface chemistry for faster rates, non-equilibrium conversion, or product selectivity control. To establish fundamental principles of dynamic photon-modulated catalysis, the photocatalytic conversion of a generic surface reaction was simulated using the kinetic Monte Carlo method to understand the kinetic implications of an independent stream of photons that promotes surface product desorption. The time-averaged photocatalytic rate at differential conditions for varying photon flux and temperatures indicated three kinetic regimes described by product thermal desorption control, surface reaction control, and an intermediate kinetic regime with a zero slope Arrhenius plot, consistent with a degree of rate control dominated by the photon arrival frequency (i.e., per-site photon flux). Here, the maximum photocatalytic rate occurred orders of magnitude above the Sabatier limit at the resonance frequency, identified as the photon arrival frequency matching the surface reaction rate constant.

Canavan, Jesse R. [University of Minnesota, Minnea↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new probe of μ Hz gravitational waves with FRB timing

We propose Fast Radio Burst (FRB) timing, which uses the precision measurements of the arrival time differences of repeated FRB signals along multiple sightlines, as a new probe of gravitational waves (GWs) around nHz to μHz frequencies, with the highest frequency limited by FRB repeating period. The anticipated experiment requires a sightline separation of tens of AU, achieved by sending radio telescopes to space. We find the signal of arrival time difference induced by GWs depends only on the local GWs in the solar system and we can correlate the measurements from different FRB sources or the same source with different repeaters, which leads to a better sensitivity with a larger number of FRB repeaters detected. Here, the projected sensitivity shows this method is a competitive probe in the nHz to μ Hz frequency range. It can fill the 'μHz gap' between pulsar timing arrays and Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) and is complementary to other proposals of GW detection in this frequency band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗
DOE OSTI2021

CryoFold: Determining protein structures and data-guided ensembles from cryo-EM density maps

Cryoelectron microscopy requires molecular modeling for refinement of structures. Ensemble models arrive at low free-energy molecular structures, but are computationally expensive and limited to resolving only small proteins. Here, we introduce CryoFold, a pipeline of molecular dynamics simulations that determines ensembles of protein structures by integrating density data of varying sparsity at 3–5 Å resolution with sequence information and coarse-grained topological knowledge of the protein folds. We present six examples, folding proteins between 72 and 2,000 residues, including large membrane and multi-domain systems, and results from two Electron Microscopy Data Bank (EMDB) competitions. Driven by data from a single state, CryoFold discovers ensembles of common low-energy models together with rare low-probability structures that capture the equilibrium distribution of proteins constrained by the density maps. Many of these conformations are experimentally validated and functionally relevant. We arrive at a set of best practices for data-guided protein folding that are controlled using a Python graphical user interface (GUI).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Complexity of Fault Rupture and Fluid Leakage in Shale: Insights From a Controlled Fault Activation Experiment

Abstract We observed rupture growth caused by controlled fluid injections at 340‐m depth within a fault zone in the low‐permeability Opalinus Clay in the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory (Switzerland). The rupture mechanisms were evaluated using measurements of the three‐component borehole wall displacements and fluid pressure in two sections of the fault zone and located horizontally 3 m apart from each other. One section was set across a secondary segment of the fault and used for stepwise fluid injection intended to trigger rupture growth. The other section was set across the principal shear zone of the fault for monitoring. After stepwise pressure increase up to 5.95 MPa at injection, rupture initiated as slip activation, followed by an overall opening of the fault planes connected to the injection. After 19 s of continued injection, displacements arrived at the monitoring point on the principal shear zone. These displacements are about 2.4 times larger than in the secondary fault segment. Overall, the displacements corresponded to a normal fault activation. About 9 s after the displacement front arrived, a strong pressure increase of 4.17 MPa was measured at the monitoring point, indicating a hydraulic connection had formed along the initially very low permeability fault planes between the injection and the monitoring points. Our analyses highlight that the fault activation is consistent with the state of stress but that injection pressure must be close to the normal stress acting on the fault for permeability to be generated and for fluid leakage to occur.

Guglielmi, Yves↗
DOE OSTI2021

Timing Calibration and Windowing Technique Comparison for Lightning Mapping Arrays

Abstract Since their introduction 22 years ago, lightning mapping arrays (LMA) have played a central role in the investigation of lightning physics. Even in recent years with the proliferation of digital interferometers and the introduction of the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) radio telescope, LMAs still play an important role in lightning science. LMA networks use a simple windowing technique that records the highest pulse in either 80 μs or 10 μs fixed windows in order to apply a time‐of‐arrival location technique. In this work, we develop an LMA‐emulator that uses lightning data recorded by LOFAR to simulate an LMA, and we use it to test three new styles of pulse windowing. We show that they produce very similar results as the more traditional LMA windowing, implying that LMA lightning mapping results are relatively independent of windowing technique. In addition, each LMA station has its GPS‐conditioned clock. While the timing accuracy of GPS receivers has improved significantly over the years, they still significantly limit the timing measurements of the LMA. Recently, new time‐of‐arrival techniques have been introduced that can be used to self‐calibrate systematic offsets between different receiving stations. Applying this calibration technique to a set of data with 32 ns uncertainty, observed by the Colorado LMA, improves the timing uncertainty to 19 ns. This technique is not limited to LMAs and could be used to help calibrate future multi‐station lightning interferometers.

Hare, Brian M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Earthquake Phase Association Using a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model

Earthquake phase association algorithms aggregate picked seismic phases from a network of seismometers into individual seismic events and play an important role in earthquake monitoring and research. Dense seismic networks and improved phase picking methods produce massive seismic phase datasets, particularly for earthquake swarms and aftershocks occurring closely in time and space, making phase association a challenging problem. Here, we present a new association method, the Gaussian Mixture Model Association (GaMMA), that combines the Gaussian mixture model with earthquake location, origin time, and magnitude estimation. We treat earthquake phase association as an unsupervised clustering problem in a probabilistic framework, where each earthquake corresponds to a cluster of P and S phases with a hyperbolic moveout of arrival times and a decay of amplitude with distance. We use the multivariate Gaussian distribution to model the collection of phase picks of an event; and the mean of the multivariate Gaussian distribution is given by the predicted arrival time and amplitude from the causative event. We carry out the pick assignment to each earthquake and determine earthquake source parameters (i.e., earthquake location, origin time, and magnitude) under the maximum likelihood criterion using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The GaMMA method does not require typical association steps of other algorithms, such as grid-search or supervised training. The results for both synthetic tests and for the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence show that GaMMA effectively associates phases from a temporally and spatially dense earthquake sequence while producing useful estimates of earthquake location and magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Three‐Dimensional Permeability Inversion Using Convolutional Neural Networks and Positron Emission Tomography

Abstract Quantification of heterogeneous multiscale permeability in geologic porous media is key for understanding and predicting flow and transport processes in the subsurface. Recent utilization of in situ imaging, specifically positron emission tomography (PET), enables the measurement of three‐dimensional (3‐D) time‐lapse radiotracer solute transport in geologic media. However, accurate and computationally efficient characterization of the permeability distribution that controls the solute transport process remains challenging. Leveraging the relationship between local permeability variation and solute advection behavior, an encoder‐decoder based convolutional neural network (CNN) is implemented as a permeability inversion scheme using a single PET scan of a radiotracer pulse injection experiment as input. The CNN can accurately capture the 3‐D spatial correlation between the permeability and the radiotracer solute arrival time difference maps in geologic cores. We first test the inversion accuracy using synthetic test datasets and then test the accuracy on a suite of experimental PET imaging datasets acquired on four different geologic cores. The network‐predicted permeability maps from the geologic cores are used to parameterize forward numerical models that are directly compared with the experimental PET imaging data. The results indicate that a single trained network can generate robust 3‐D permeability inversion maps in seconds. Numerical models parameterized with these permeability maps closely capture the experimentally observed solute arrival time behavior. This work provides an unprecedented approach for efficiently characterizing multiscale permeability heterogeneity in complex geologic samples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Topographically Scattered Infrasound Waves Observed on Microbarometer Arrays in the Lower Stratosphere

When an acoustic wave strikes a topographic feature, some of its energy is scattered. Sensors on the ground cannot capture these scattered signals when they propagate at high angles. We report observations of upwardly-scattered acoustic waves prior to refraction back to the ground, intercepting them with a set of balloon-borne infrasound microbarometers in the lower stratosphere over northern Sweden. We show that these scattered waves generate a coda whose presence can be related to topography beneath balloons and low-altitude acoustic ducts. The inclination of the coda signals changes systematically with time, as expected from waves arriving from scatterers successively closer to receivers. The codas are present when a temperature inversion channels infrasound from a set of ground chemical explosions along the ground, but are absent following the inversion's dissipation. Since scattering partitions energy away from the main arrival, these observations imply a mechanism of amplitude loss that had previously been inaccessible to measurement. As such, these data and results allow for a better comprehension of interactions between atmospheric infrasound propagation and the solid earth

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning‐Assisted Microearthquake Location Workflow for Monitoring the Newberry Enhanced Geothermal System

Abstract Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a sustainable energy source but face challenges in accurately locating microearthquakes induced during reservoir stimulation. Locating these microearthquakes provides reliable feedback on the stimulation progress. Current deep learning methods for locating earthquakes require extensive data sets for training, which is problematic as detected microearthquakes are often limited. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose a practical workflow using probabilistic multilayer perceptron (PMLP) which predicts microearthquake locations from cross‐correlation time lags in waveforms. Utilizing a 3D velocity model of Newberry site derived from ambient noise interferometry, we generate numerous synthetic microearthquakes and 3D acoustic waveforms for PMLP training. Accurate synthetic tests prompt us to apply the trained network to the 2012 and 2014 stimulation field waveforms. To enhance the accuracy of source localization, we carefully handpick the P‐arrival times. Predictions on the 2012 stimulation data set show major microseismic activity at depths of 0.5–1.2 km, correlating with a known casing leakage scenario. In the 2014 data set, the majority of predictions concentrate at 2.0–2.9 km depths, consistent with results obtained from conventional physics‐based inversion, and align with the presence of natural fractures from 2.0 to 2.7 km. We validate our findings by comparing the synthetic and field picks, demonstrating a satisfactory match for the first arrivals. By combining the benefits of quick inference speeds and accurate location predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of using realistic synthetic data set to locate microseismicity for EGS monitoring.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗