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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach for Identifying IASMS Services, Functions, and Capabilities From Data Sources

Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants that are part of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using semi-autonomous/autonomous vehicles. Overcoming these AAM safety assurance challenges is the focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS). The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs)designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system design to mitigate risk. This paper describes a broad approach for identifying SFCs involving technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach leverages these sources to identify potential SFCs that enable the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M)functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS.

Kyle Ellis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Risk and Anomalies in Airplane Dynamics Through Entropic Analysis of Time Series Data

Despite recent efforts to move away from traditional threshold exceedance detection methods for aircraft state monitoring, modern aircraft still rely on safety thresholds to communicate to pilots the identification of an anomaly in the aircraft when a threshold is surpassed. Current anomaly detection methods mainly depend on uninterpretable machine learning models to learn complex patterns and relationships contained in the time series data of aircraft. Although these methods are capable of identifying known anomalies, their deficiency in interpretability presents a challenge when translating them to different aircraft. To overcome this deficiency, entropic analysis of aircraft dynamics seeks to characterize the complexity, or lack thereof, of the aircraft dynamics prior to the development of a risk scenario. This complexity characterization provides a more straightforward summary of state changes in the dynamics of flight variables. To build a foundation for entropic analysis, we analyzed the complexity of unstable approaches, an anomalous event present in many of today’s aviation accidents. The analysis revealed a statistically significant difference in the complexity distribution of flight variables under a stable approach versus an unstable approach. These differences in complexity were especially notable minutes before an approach was identified as unstable. Moreover, the multiscale entropic analysis revealed the presence of signal complexity at multiple time scales across multiple time windows before landing. By capturing state changes and corrections in the aircraft dynamics using entropy, advanced, yet still interpretable, sensor systems based on entropic frameworks from this study can be constructed in the future using classical machine learning approaches.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRS2002

NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention/weather Information Communications (WINCOMM)

Weather is a contributing factor in approximately 25-30 percent of general aviation accidents. The lack of timely, accurate and usable weather information to the general aviation pilot in the cockpit to enhance pilot situational awareness and improve pilot judgment remains a major impediment to improving aviation safety. NASA Glenn Research Center commissioned this 120 day weather datalink market survey to assess the technologies, infrastructure, products, and services of commercial avionics systems being marketed to the general aviation community to address these longstanding safety concerns. A market survey of companies providing or proposing to provide graphical weather information to the general aviation cockpit was conducted. Fifteen commercial companies were surveyed. These systems are characterized and evaluated in this report by availability, end-user pricing/cost, system constraints/limits and technical specifications. An analysis of market survey results and an evaluation of product offerings were made. In addition, recommendations to NASA for additional research and technology development investment have been made as a result of this survey to accelerate deployment of cockpit weather information systems for enhancing aviation safety.

Feinberg, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS2003

Proceedings of the Second NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention Review

The Second NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Annual Project Review held June 5-7, 2001, in Cleveland, Ohio, presented the NASA technical plans and accomplishments to the aviation community. NASA-developed technologies presented included an Aviation Weather Information System with associated digital communications links, electronic atmospheric reporting technologies, forward-looking turbulence warning systems, and turbulence mitigation procedures. The meeting provided feedback and insight from the aviation community of diverse backgrounds and assisted NASA in steering its plans in the direction needed to meet the national safety goal of 80-percent reduction of aircraft accidents by 2007. The proceedings of the review are enclosed.

Martzaklis, K. Gus↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

prospection↗
NASA NTRS2006

New Technologies for Reducing Aviation Weather-Related Accidents

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed technologies to reduce aviation weather-related accidents. New technologies are presented for data-link and display of weather information to aircraft in flight, for detection of turbulence ahead of aircraft in flight, and for automated insitu reporting of atmospheric conditions from aircraft.

Stough, H. Paul, III↗
NASA NTRS2004

Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

Jarrell, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2000

First NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention Project Annual Review

The goal of this Annual Review was to present NASA plans and accomplishments that will impact the national aviation safety goal. NASA's WxAP Project focuses on developing the following products: (1) Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) technologies (displays, sensors, pilot decision tools, communication links, etc.); (2) Electronic Pilot Reporting (E-PIREPS) technologies; (3) Enhanced weather products with associated hazard metrics; (4) Forward looking turbulence sensor technologies (radar, lidar, etc.); (5) Turbulence mitigation control system designs; Attendees included personnel from various NASA Centers, FAA, National Weather Service, DoD, airlines, aircraft and pilot associations, industry, aircraft manufacturers and academia. Attendees participated in discussion sessions aimed at collecting aviation user community feedback on NASA plans and R&D activities. This CD is a compilation of most of the presentations presented at this Review.

Colantonio, Ron↗
NASA NTRS1978

A historical overview of stall/spin characteristics of general aviation aircraft

Even today, stall/spin accidents involving general aviation aircraft account for more fatal and serious injuries than any other kind of accident. The classic stall/spin accident is one in which the pilot stalls the aircraft at too low an altitude to affect recovery. The primary attention in the investigation is given to aerodynamic considerations, although it is recognized that human factors and pilot training are also very important aspects of the total problem. A review of some 70 years of flight indicates that incorporation of the proper combination of aerodynamic parameters to provide good stall/spin avoidance has persistently remained an elusive goal for designers of general aviation aircraft.

Anderson, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Limits of Expertise: Rethinking Pilot Error and the Causes of Airline Accidents. CRM/HF Conference, Held in Denver, Colorado on April 16-17, 2006

Reviewed NTSB reports of the 19 U.S. airline accidents between 1991-2000 attributed primarily to crew error. Asked: Why might any airline crew in situation of accident crew--knowing only what they knew--be vulnerable. Can never know with certainty why accident crew made specific errors but can determine why the population of pilots is vulnerable. Considers variability of expert performance as function of interplay of multiple factors.

Aviation accidents↗
NASA NTRS2017

Crew State Monitoring and Line-Oriented Flight Training for Attention Management

Loss of control - inflight (LOC-I) has historically represented the largest category of commercial aviation fatal accidents. A review of worldwide transport airplane accidents (2001-2010) indicated that loss of airplane state awareness (ASA) was responsible for the majority of the LOC-I fatality rate. The Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) ASA study identified 12 major themes that were indicated across the ASA accident and incident events. One of the themes was crew distraction or ineffective attention management, which was found to be involved in all 18 events including flight crew channelized attention, startle/surprise, diverted attention, and/or confirmation bias. Safety Enhancement (SE)-211, "Training for Attention Management" was formed to conduct research to develop and assess commercial airline training methods and realistic scenarios that can address these attention-related human performance limitations. This paper describes NASA SE-211 research for new design approaches and validation of line-oriented flight training (LOFT). Recent accident and incident data suggests that Spatial Disorientation (SD) and Loss-of-Energy State Awareness (LESA) for transport category aircraft are becoming an increasingly prevalent safety concern in all domestic and international operations (Commercial Aviation Safety Team, 2014a). SD is defined as an erroneous perception of aircraft attitude that can lead directly to a Loss-of-Control Inflight (LOC-I) event and result in an accident or incident. LESA is typically characterized by a failure to monitor or understand energy state indications (e.g., airspeed, altitude, vertical speed, commanded thrust) and a resultant failure to maintain safe flight.

Stephens, Chad↗
NASA NTRS2003

An Overview of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AVSP) Systemwide Accident Prevention (SWAP) Human Performance Modeling (HPM) Element

An overview is provided of the Human Performance Modeling (HPM) element within the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). Two separate model development tracks for performance modeling of real-world aviation environments are described: the first focuses on the advancement of cognitive modeling tools for system design, while the second centers on a prescriptive engineering model of activity tracking for error detection and analysis. A progressive implementation strategy for both tracks is discussed in which increasingly more complex, safety-relevant applications are undertaken to extend the state-of-the-art, as well as to reveal potential human-system vulnerabilities in the aviation domain. Of particular interest is the ability to predict the precursors to error and to assess potential mitigation strategies associated with the operational use of future flight deck technologies.

Foyle, David C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Formal Methods Approach to the Analysis of Mode Confusion

The goal of the new NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to reduce the civil aviation fatal accident rate by 80% in ten years and 90% in twenty years. This program is being driven by the accident data with a focus on the most recent history. Pilot error is the most commonly cited cause for fatal accidents (up to 70%) and obviously must be given major consideration in this program. While the greatest source of pilot error is the loss of situation awareness , mode confusion is increasingly becoming a major contributor as well. The January 30, 1995 issue of Aviation Week lists 184 incidents and accidents involving mode awareness including the Bangalore A320 crash 2/14/90, the Strasbourg A320 crash 1/20/92, the Mulhouse-Habsheim A320 crash 6/26/88, and the Toulouse A330 crash 6/30/94. These incidents and accidents reveal that pilots sometimes become confused about what the cockpit automation is doing. Consequently, human factors research is an obvious investment area. However, even a cursory look at the accident data reveals that the mode confusion problem is much deeper than just training deficiencies and a lack of human-oriented design. This is readily acknowledged by human factors experts. It seems that further progress in human factors must come through a deeper scrutiny of the internals of the automation. It is in this arena that formal methods can contribute. Formal methods refers to the use of techniques from logic and discrete mathematics in the specification, design, and verification of computer systems, both hardware and software. The fundamental goal of formal methods is to capture requirements, designs and implementations in a mathematically based model that can be analyzed in a rigorous manner. Research in formal methods is aimed at automating this analysis as much as possible. By capturing the internal behavior of a flight deck in a rigorous and detailed formal model, the dark corners of a design can be analyzed. This paper will explore how formal models and analyses can be used to help eliminate mode confusion from flight deck designs and at the same time increase our confidence in the safety of the implementation. The paper is based upon interim results from a new project involving NASA Langley and Rockwell Collins in applying formal methods to a realistic business jet Flight Guidance System (FGS).

Butler, Ricky W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Design Considerations for Attitude State Awareness and Prevention of Entry into Unusual Attitudes

Loss of control - inflight (LOC-I) has historically represented the largest category of commercial aviation fatal accidents. A review of the worldwide transport airplane accidents (2001-2010) evinced that loss of attitude or energy state awareness was responsible for a large majority of the LOC-I events. A Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) study of 18 worldwide loss-of-control accidents and incidents determined that flight crew loss of attitude awareness or energy state awareness due to lack of external visual reference cues was a significant causal factor in 17 of the 18 reviewed flights. CAST recommended that "Virtual Day-Visual Meteorological Condition" (Virtual Day-VMC) displays be developed to provide the visual cues necessary to prevent loss-of-control resulting from flight crew spatial disorientation and loss of energy state awareness. Synthetic vision or equivalent systems (SVS) were identified for a design "safety enhancement" (SE-200). Part of this SE involves the conduct of research for developing minimum aviation system performance standards (MASPS) for these flight deck display technologies to aid flight crew attitude and energy state awareness similar to that of a virtual day-VMC-like environment. This paper will describe a novel experimental approach to evaluating a flight crew's ability to maintain attitude awareness and to prevent entry into unusual attitudes across several SVS optical flow design considerations. Flight crews were subjected to compound-event scenarios designed to elicit channelized attention and startle/surprise within the crew. These high-fidelity scenarios, designed from real-world events, enable evaluation of the efficacy of SVS at improving flight crew attitude awareness to reduce the occurrence of LOC-I incidents in commercial flight operations.

Ellis, Kyle K. E.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Graphical Weather Information System Evaluation: Usability, Perceived Utility, and Preferences from General Aviation Pilots

Weather is a significant factor in General Aviation (GA) accidents and fatality rates. Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) for the flight deck are appropriate technologies for mitigating the difficulties GA pilots have with current aviation weather information sources. This paper describes usability evaluations of a prototype GWIS by 12 GA pilots after using the system in flights towards convective weather. We provide design guidance for GWISs and discuss further research required to support weather situation awareness and in-flight decision making for GA pilots.

Latorella, Kara A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Preliminary Results Obtained in Integrated Safety Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program Technologies

The goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to develop and demonstrate technologies that contribute to a reduction in the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of 5 by the year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by the year 2022. Integrated safety analysis of day-to-day operations and risks within those operations will provide an understanding of the Aviation Safety Program portfolio. Safety benefits analyses are currently being conducted. Preliminary results for the Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) and Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) projects of the AvSP have been completed by the Logistics Management Institute under a contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. These analyses include both a reliability analysis and a computer simulation model. The integrated safety analysis method comprises two principal components: a reliability model and a simulation model. In the reliability model, the results indicate how different technologies and systems will perform in normal, degraded, and failed modes of operation. In the simulation, an operational scenario is modeled. The primary purpose of the SVS project is to improve safety by providing visual-flightlike situation awareness during instrument conditions. The current analyses are an estimate of the benefits of SVS in avoiding controlled flight into terrain. The scenario modeled has an aircraft flying directly toward a terrain feature. When the flight crew determines that the aircraft is headed toward an obstruction, the aircraft executes a level turn at speed. The simulation is ended when the aircraft completes the turn.

Reveley, Mary S.↗