Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Baseline estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

Estimation of Separation Buffers for Wind-Prediction Error in an Airborne Separation Assistance System

Wind prediction errors are known to affect the performance of automated air traffic management tools that rely on aircraft trajectory predictions. In particular, automated separation assurance tools, planned as part of the NextGen concept of operations, must be designed to account and compensate for the impact of wind prediction errors and other system uncertainties. In this paper we describe a high fidelity batch simulation study designed to estimate the separation distance required to compensate for the effects of wind-prediction errors throughout increasing traffic density on an airborne separation assistance system. These experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assurance systems. In this experiment, wind-prediction errors were varied between zero and forty knots while traffic density was increased several times current traffic levels. In order to accurately measure the full unmitigated impact of wind-prediction errors, no uncertainty buffers were added to the separation minima. The goal of the study was to measure the impact of wind-prediction errors in order to estimate the additional separation buffers necessary to preserve separation and to provide a baseline for future analyses. Buffer estimations from this study will be used and verified in upcoming safety evaluation experiments under similar simulation conditions. Results suggest that the strategic airborne separation functions exercised in this experiment can sustain wind prediction errors up to 40kts at current day air traffic density with no additional separation distance buffer and at eight times the current day with no more than a 60% increase in separation distance buffer.

Consiglio, Maria C.↗

Geodetic and Astrometric Measurements with Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry

The use of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations for the estimation of geodetic and astrometric parameters is discussed. Analytic models for the dependence of delay and delay rate on these parameters are developed and used for parameter estimation by the method of weighted least squares. Results are presented from approximately 15,000 delay and delay-rate observations, obtained in a series of nineteen VLBI experiments involving a total of five stations on two continents. The closure of baseline triangles is investigated and found to be consistent with the scatter of the various baseline-component results. Estimates are made of the wobble of the earth's pole and of the irregularities in the earth's rotation rate. Estimates are also made of the precession constant and of the vertical Love number, for which a value of 0.55 + or - 0.05 was obtained.

Robertson, D. S.↗

Implementation of an Integrated On-Board Aircraft Engine Diagnostic Architecture

An on-board diagnostic architecture for aircraft turbofan engine performance trending, parameter estimation, and gas-path fault detection and isolation has been developed and evaluated in a simulation environment. The architecture incorporates two independent models: a realtime self-tuning performance model providing parameter estimates and a performance baseline model for diagnostic purposes reflecting long-term engine degradation trends. This architecture was evaluated using flight profiles generated from a nonlinear model with realistic fleet engine health degradation distributions and sensor noise. The architecture was found to produce acceptable estimates of engine health and unmeasured parameters, and the integrated diagnostic algorithms were able to perform correct fault isolation in approximately 70 percent of the tested cases

Armstrong, Jeffrey B.↗

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Distance Estimate Method for Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars Using Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions

We present a method to estimate distances to asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Galaxy, using spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in the near- and mid-infrared. By assuming that a given set of source properties (initial mass, stellar temperature, composition, and evolutionary stage) will provide a typical SED shape and brightness, sources are color matched to a distance-calibrated template and thereafter scaled to extract the distance. The method is tested by comparing the distances obtained to those estimated from very long baseline interferometry or Gaia parallax measurements, yielding a strong correlation in both cases. Additional templates are formed by constructing a source sample likely to be close to the Galactic center, and thus with a common, typical distance for calibration of the templates. These first results provide statistical distance estimates to a set of almost 15,000 Milky Way AGB stars belonging to the Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamical Evolution (BAaDE) survey, with typical distance errors of ±35%. With these statistical distances, a map of the intermediate-age population of stars traced by AGBs is formed, and a clear bar structure can be discerned, consistent with the previously reported inclination angle of 30° to the GC–Sun direction vector. These results motivate deeper studies of the AGB population to tease out the intermediate-age stellar distribution throughout the Galaxy, as well as determining statistical properties of the AGB population luminosity and mass-loss-rate distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Baseline Calibration of the GeoSAR Interferometric Mapping Instrument

GeoSAR is a dual frequency, X-Band and P-Band, interferometric mapping radar flown on a Gulfstream II with a nominal flying altitude of 10000 and a swath width of 10 km on both left and right sides of the aircraft. The radar is designed to generate high resolution and high accuracy digital elevation maps both above and below the vegetation canopy. In order to generate the high accuracy digital elevations models it is necessary to have extremely precise knowledge of the interferometric baseline, approximately .1 mm for the X-band system and 3 mm for the P-band system. Baseline knowledge to this level of accuracy is achieved through a combination of active baseline measurement using a Laser Baseline Metrology System (LBMS) and baseline calibration using an accurately surveyed array of corner reflectors. In this paper, we describe the LBMS system used to measure the dynamic component of the interferometric baseline and the least squares procedure used to estimate all three components of the interferometric baseline based on differences between calculated and surveyed corner reflector locations.

Hensley, Scott↗

Geodesy by radio interferometry - Evidence for contemporary plate motion

Analysis of 211 very long baseline interferometry observing sessions carried out between November 1979 and August 1984 has yielded estimates of the distances between various radio telescopes located in North America and Europe. The average rate of change of the distances between four radio telescopes in North America (Haystack Observatory, Massachusetts; Westford Radio Telescope, Massachusetts; George R. Agassiz Station, Texas; and Owens Valley Radio Observatory, California) and one in Europe (Onsala Space Observatory, Sweden) obtained from the analysis of these data is 19 + or 10 mm/yr, where the (68 percent confidence interval) standard deviation is for the estimate of the rate of change of the Haystack-Onsala baseline length, the one determined most accurately from these data. This estimate of the standard deviation is dominated by the effects of correlated systematic errors due mostly to errors in the model used for the atmospheric delay which introduces errors in each baseline length estimate of 40 mm standard deviation and 60 days correlation time. (By contrast the statistical standard deviation is only 2 mm/yr). The estimated geologic rates of change of these baseline lengths, averaged over 10 to the 6th years, are 15 to 17 + or - 3 mm/yr for the various North American sites to Ondala.

Herring, T. A.↗

The long term stability of VLBI earth orientation measurements

Tectonic motions will, in general, change the orientation as well as the length of baselines used in Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), and will thus cause slow divergences between earth orientation results obtained with different VLBI networks, as well as between VLBI results and those obtained by satellite laser ranging and lunar laser ranging. Such drifts (on the order of a milliarcsecond/year) are inherently interesting as well as being significant in combinations of orientation results from different sources. The geodetic study of tectonic motions is also closely connected to research into the nature and causes of systematic errors in data from the modern techniques of space geodesy. Both a special coordinate system found to be of use in the analysis of VLBI data and tectonic motion estimates for a VLBI baseline stretching from California to Australia are described.

Eubanks, T. M.↗

Experimentally-Derived Phase Function Approximations in Support of the Orbital Debris Program Office

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used various optical assets to acquire photometric data of Earth-orbiting objects to define the orbital debris environment. To better characterize and model optical data acquired from ground-based telescopes, the Optical Measurements Center (OMC) at NASA Johnson Space Center emulates illumination conditions seen in space by using equipment and techniques that parallel telescopic observations and source-target-sensor orientations. One of the OMC goals is to improve the size calculation used for optical data by developing an optical-based Size Estimation Model. The current size estimation requires applying a Lambertian phase function, a set albedo value, and range to the observed magnitude. The first step to improving the sampled brightness of laboratory targets is to remove aspect-angle dependencies. Then, the volume of possible object viewing angles is sampled at 21 combinations of azimuth and elevation angles for each solar phase angle. Finally, the acquired images are input into an image processing program that generates approximations for the object’s Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) and phase function. The BRDF is a radiometric concept that identifies an object’s material composition by matching a BRDF approximated with photometric data collected by ground-based telescopes with a BRDF generated experimentally from a known object in the laboratory. This paper presents the initial BRDF and phase function approximations for various fragments/targets acquired in the OMC and how the findings will be incorporated into ODPO models. A Lambertian sphere is used as a baseline for initial size estimation calculations and phase function comparisons. Spacecraft materials and fragments from hypervelocity laboratory impact tests are also presented to compare against the current assumed Lambertian phase function used for size estimates. This paper presents the preliminary phase function analysis and plan forward to utilize a laboratory-based phase function to improve the current optical size estimates using BRDF measurements for a large volume of targets composed of various shapes, sizes, and materials.

Hostetler, J.↗

Ammonia Leak Locator Study

The thermal control system of International Space Station Alpha will use liquid ammonia as the heat exchange fluid. It is expected that small leaks (of the order perhaps of one pound of ammonia per day) may develop in the lines transporting the ammonia to the various facilities as well as in the heat exchange equipment. Such leaks must be detected and located before the supply of ammonia becomes critically low. For that reason, NASA-JSC has a program underway to evaluate instruments that can detect and locate ultra-small concentrations of ammonia in a high vacuum environment. To be useful, the instrument must be portable and small enough that an astronaut can easily handle it during extravehicular activity. An additional complication in the design of the instrument is that the environment immediately surrounding ISSA will contain small concentrations of many other gases from venting of onboard experiments as well as from other kinds of leaks. These other vapors include water, cabin air, CO2, CO, argon, N2, and ethylene glycol. Altogether, this local environment might have a pressure of the order of 10(exp -7) to 10(exp -6) torr. Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) was contracted by NASA-JSC to provide support to NASA-JSC and its prime contractors in evaluating ammonia-location instruments and to make a preliminary trade study of the advantages and limitations of potential instruments. The present effort builds upon an earlier SwRI study to evaluate ammonia leak detection instruments [Jolly and Deffenbaugh]. The objectives of the present effort include: (1) Estimate the characteristics of representative ammonia leaks; (2) Evaluate the baseline instrument in the light of the estimated ammonia leak characteristics; (3) Propose alternative instrument concepts; and (4) Conduct a trade study of the proposed alternative concepts and recommend promising instruments. The baseline leak-location instrument selected by NASA-JSC was an ion gauge.

Dodge, Franklin T.↗

Error estimation for delta VLBI angle and angle rate measurements over baselines between a ground station and a geosynchronous orbiter

Baselines between a ground station and a geosynchronous orbiter provide high resolution Delta VLBI data which is beyond the capability of ground-based interferometry. The effects of possible error sources on such Delta VLBI data for the determination of spacecraft angle and angle rate are investigated. For comparison, the effects on spacecraft-only VLBI are also studied.

Wu, S. C.↗

A study into the loss of lock of the space telescope fine guidance sensor

The results of a study into the loss of lock phenomenon associated with the Space Telescope Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) are documented. The primary cause of loss of lock has been found to be a combination of cosmic ray spikes and photon noise due to a 14.5 Mv star. The probability of maintaining lock versus time is estimated both for the baseline FGS design and with parameter changes in the FGS firmware which will improve the probability of maintaining lock. The parameters varied are changeable in-flight from the ground and hence do not impact the design of the FGS hardware.

Polites, M. E.↗

Development of laminar flow control wing surface composite structures

The dramatic increases in fuel costs and the potential for periods of limited fuel availability provided the impetus to explore technologies to reduce transport aircraft fuel consumption. NASA sponsored the Aircraft Energy Efficiency (ACEE) program beginning in 1976 to develop technologies to improve fuel efficiency. This report documents the Lockheed-Georgia Company accomplishments under NAS1-16235 LFC Laminar-Flow-Control Wing Panel Structural Design And Development (WSSD); Design, manufacturing, and testing activities. An in-depth preliminary design of the baseline 1993 LFC wing was accomplished. A surface panel using the Lockheed graphite/epoxy integrated LFC wing box structural concept was designed. The concept was shown by analysis to be structurally efficient and cost effective. Critical details of the surface and surface joints were demonstrated by fabricating and testing complex, concept selection specimens. Cost of the baseline LFC aircraft was estimated and compared to the turbulent aircraft. The mission fuel weight was 21.7 percent lower for the LFC aircraft. The calculation shows that the lower fuel costs for LFC offset the higher incremental costs of LFC in less than six months.

Lineberger, L. B.↗

Polar motion, atmospheric angular momentum excitation and earthquakes - Correlations and significance

Equatorial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) excitation functions and polar motion excitation functions (derived by Kalman filtering Very Long Baseline Interferometry polar motion estimates) are compared with the times of 1984-mid-1988 large earthquakes (magnitude greater than or equal to 7.5). There is a moderate correlation between times of large earthquakes and peaks in polar motion excitation. A strong correlation exists between the times of large earthquakes and large peaks in equatorial AAM amplitude; such a correlation is evident for six out of the eight large earthquakes occurring over the studied time interval. The AAM results indicate potential for the temporal prediction of large/great earthquakes.

Preisig, Joseph R.↗

Project Longshot

Project Longshot presents a preliminary design for an unmanned probe to Alpha Centauri with a planned launch early in the 21st century. A 100-year estimated travel time was baselined for the mission on Space Report, Pioneering the Space Frontier. One of the elements of the Commission's solar and space physics plan is 'a long-life, high-velocity spacecraft to be sent out of the Solar System on a trajectory to the nearest star'. Adequate lead time is included in the scenario to allow the development of several enabling technologies and to ensure that the required space operations infrastructure will be in place.

Source record↗

Observations of the Sea Ice Cover Using Satellite Radar Interferometry

The fringes observed in repeat pass interferograms are expressions of surface relief and relative displacements. The limiting condition in the application of spaceborne radar interferometry to the remote sensing of the sea ice cover is the large magnitude of motion between repeat passes. The translation and rotation of ice floes tend to decorrelate the observations rendering radar interferometry ineffective. In our study, we have located three images in the high Arctic during a period when there was negligible motion between repeat observations. The fringes obtained from these images show a wealth of information about the sea ice cover which is important in atmosphere-ice interactions and sea ice mechanics. These measurements provide the first detailed remote sensing view of the sea ice cover. Ridges can be observed and their heights estimated if the interferometric baseline allows. We have observed ridges with heights greater than 4m. The variability in the phase measurements over an area provides an indication of the large scale roughness. Relative centimetric displacements between rigid ice floes have been observed. We illustrate these observations with examples extracted from the interferograms formed from this set of ERS-1 SAR images.

sea ice cover, satellite, radar, interferometry↗

Impact of Air Traffic Reductions during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Aircraft-induced Clouds and their Radiative Effects

Air travel restrictions due to the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic drastically reduced air travel internationally during the spring of 2020. Such an extraordinary disruption of air traffic may have a profound effect on contrail formation that could allow for better quantification and scientific understanding of the radiative impacts of aviation-induced clouds on climate. This investigation synergizes MODIS, CrIS, and GOES-16 satellite analyses with weather analyses, including those from GEOS and MERRA, to compare contrail formation conditions and radiative forcings of linear contrails and thin cirrus detected over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and the North Atlantic for the 2020 air traffic slowdown period with parallel analyses conducted for a baseline period from a previous year with normal air traffic. A consistent analysis system for contrail detection and cloud property retrievals (e.g. optical depth, particle size, and altitude) from satellites, coupled with radiative transfer modeling are applied to characterize and contrast contrail cirrus properties and radiative effects estimated during the pandemic and baseline periods. Temperature and humidity profiles from numerical weather models and hyperspectral infrared measurements are used to estimate the contrail formation potential (CFP) over the study areas in order to help choose the most appropriate baseline period and to account for potential impacts of differences in meteorology on contrail formation and coverage. This study, using NASA satellite data and other assets, is expected to improve our understanding of the relationship between air traffic, contrail cirrus coverage and related impacts in order to better quantify the need for contrail formation mitigation strategies that could reduce aviation effects on climate.

William L Smith↗