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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Surrogate Neural Architecture Codesign Package (SNAC-Pack)

Neural Architecture Search is a powerful approach for automating model design, but existing methods struggle to accurately optimize for real hardware performance, often relying on proxy metrics such as bit operations. We present Surrogate Neural Architecture Codesign Package (SNAC-Pack), an integrated framework that automates the discovery and optimization of neural networks focusing on FPGA deployment. SNAC-Pack combines Neural Architecture Codesign's multi-stage search capabilities with the Resource Utilization and Latency Estimator, enabling multi-objective optimization across accuracy, FPGA resource utilization, and latency without requiring time-intensive synthesis for each candidate model. We demonstrate SNAC-Pack on a high energy physics jet classification task, achieving 63.84% accuracy with resource estimation. When synthesized on a Xilinx Virtex UltraScale+ VU13P FPGA, the SNAC-Pack model matches baseline accuracy while maintaining comparable resource utilization to models optimized using traditional BOPs metrics. This work demonstrates the potential of hardware-aware neural architecture search for resource-constrained deployments and provides an open-source framework for automating the design of efficient FPGA-accelerated models.

Weitz, Jason [UC, San Diego] (ORCID:00090004631535↗

Validation and Calibration of Energy Models with Real Vehicle Data from Chassis Dynamometer Experiments

Accurate estimation of vehicle fuel consumption typically requires detailed modeling of complex internal powertrain dynamics, often resulting in computationally intensive simulations. However, many transportation applications-such as traffic flow modeling, optimization, and control-require simplified models that are fast, interpretable, and easy to implement, while still maintaining fidelity to physical energy behavior. This work builds upon a recently developed model reduction pipeline that derives physics-like energy models from high-fidelity Autonomie vehicle simulations. These reduced models preserve essential vehicle dynamics, enabling realistic fuel consumption estimation with minimal computational overhead. While the reduced models have demonstrated strong agreement with their Autonomie counterparts, previous validation efforts have been confined to simulation environments. This study extends the validation by comparing the reduced energy model's outputs against real-world vehicle data. Focusing on the MidSUV category, we tune the baseline Autonomie model to closely replicate the characteristics of a Toyota RAV4. We then assess the accuracy of the resulting reduced model in estimating fuel consumption under actual drive conditions. Our findings suggest that, when the reference Autonomie model is properly calibrated, the simplified model produced by the reduction pipeline can provide reliable, semi-principled fuel rate estimates suitable for large-scale transportation applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Residential Water Heating Demand Side Management (DSM) - South Africa

The electricity crisis in South Africa has deteriorated significantly, with the country experiencing frequent and prolonged rolling blackouts. These outages have severe economic repercussions, leading to decreased growth and productivity. Demand Side Management (DSM), particularly focusing on electric water heaters due to their significant energy consumption and peak demand contribution, is identified as a key strategy. The study aims to assess opportunities for DSM programs targeting water heating to reduce energy consumption and peak demand. It entails developing a bottom-up simulation model to establish a baseline scenario of water heating electricity load demand in 2023 and 2033, identifying technologies for energy reduction, estimating the impacts of a selected number of measures and providing recommendations to inform policy makers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Likelihood-Based Particle Identification in the Short-Baseline Near Detector

Accurate particle identification is crucial in any high-energy physics experiment, allowing scientists to understand the unique interactions and mechanisms at play in a detector. In this project, I develop and study a new particle identification (PID) algorithm for the Short-Baseline Near Detector, a likelihood-based approach, different from out current $\chi^2$ method. A likelihood estimation offers a more physically motivated strategy for PID. The distribution random energy losses of charged particles traveling through a medium are described by the Vavilov probability density function. By using this model, we can account for random energy losses and construct likelihood functions specific to each particle type, potentially enabling a more accurate method for PID.

Vanderwaal, Sophia [U. Alabama, Huntsville] (ORCID↗

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Unit With New Windows

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ComStock Measure Documentation: Fan Static Pressure Reset for Multizone Variable Air Volume Systems

This report assesses the potential for nationwide adoption of a duct static pressure reset in MZ VAV systems in appropriate applications. Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models, this work produces national datasets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses various data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The “baseline” model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology of the baseline model is discussed in the ComStock Reference Documentation. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility measures that cover market-ready technologies and study their mass-adoption impact on the baseline building stock. “Measures” refers to various “what-if” scenarios that can be applied to buildings. The results for the baseline and measure scenario simulations are published in public datasets that provide insights into building stock characteristics, operational behaviors, utility bill impacts, and annual and sub-hourly energy usage by fuel type and end use. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single ComStock measure scenario—Fan Static Pressure Reset for Multizone Variable Air Volume (VAV) Systems—and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public dataset enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use case (e.g., filter to a specific county or building type).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat Setbacks During Unoccupied Periods

This report assesses the potential for nationwide adoption of thermostat setbacks in appropriate applications. Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models, this work produces national datasets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses various data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The “baseline” model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology of the baseline model is discussed in the ComStock Reference Documentation. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility measures that cover market-ready technologies and study their mass-adoption impact on the baseline building stock. “Measures” refers to various “what-if” scenarios that can be applied to buildings. The results for the baseline and measure scenario simulations are published in public datasets that provide insights into building stock characteristics, operational behaviors, utility bill impacts, and annual and sub-hourly energy usage by fuel type and end use. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single ComStock measure scenario— Thermostat Setbacks During Unoccupied Periods—and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public dataset enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use cases (e.g., filter to a specific county or building type).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Measuring Success: A Refined Methodology for Estimating Long-term Continuous Improvement

Successful resource management systems require current and detailed feedback on operational and corporate-level performance. As corporate accountability concerns intensify, the precision and reliability of these performance metrics have become crucial. Traditional savings estimation methods can be difficult to understand, particularly linear regression, and can provide varying results. This paper reviews common efficiency metrics and highlights underlying mathematical inconsistencies when estimating total and percent savings with current methods. A refined approach to calculating long-term utility savings is proposed that simplifies current methodologies utilizing ratios to define an adjusted baseline, allowing for consistent and fair aggregation of results across multiple scales from resources to corporate performance. A simplified example demonstrates how the proposed methodology improves upon existing methods, especially in intermediate years. This paper’s major contributions are the simplified approach for converting modeled utility usage into estimated savings and the consistent roll-up methodology enabling more comparable, aggregable, and actionable results across scales.

Price, Chris [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000202007906)↗

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai'i

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy's Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company's GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

building cooling↗

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Chiller Replacement

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at a subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single end-use savings shape measure - chiller replacement - and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock (TM) data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public data set enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use case (e.g., filter to a specific county).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Progress toward differential cross-section measurements of coherent charged-pion production in charged-current muon neutrino interactions on argon with SBND

Coherent charged pion production in charged-current muon neutrino–nucleus interactions provides a clean experimental signature and enables an excellent estimate of the neutrino energy, making it particularly valuable for neutrino flux constraints and oscillation analyses in future long-baseline experiments. Despite its importance, theoretical modeling of this process remains challenging, especially in the low-energy region below 1 GeV and its dependence on the nuclear target. The Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) offers a unique opportunity to study coherent charged pion production using neutrinos in the few-hundred-MeV energy range from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) interacting with an argon target (A = 40), with unprecedented statistics expected to yield approximately three thousand signal events in SBND’s BNB data with 3.5 x 10^20 protons on target. This analysis aims to achieve the first differential cross-section measurement of charged-current coherent charged pion production on argon, as well as the first measurement of this process using BNB neutrinos.

Oh, Sungbin [Fermilab]↗

DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman Alpha Forest Multipoles

We present an alternative measurement of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) using the Legendre multipole representation of the Ly$α$ forest correlation functions from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument survey. Compressing the auto- and cross-correlation functions into Legendre multipoles yields a positive-definite covariance matrix without any smoothing -- unlike the baseline DR2 analysis -- thanks to a significantly reduced data vector size. We introduce the statistical corrections required to debias the finite-sample covariance matrix estimate and demonstrate that monopole and quadrupole terms for both auto- and cross-correlations can be used even when the correlation functions are distorted by continuum errors and contaminated by metals. This formalism has slightly diminished the constraining power of the BAO scale, while considerably weakening constraints on nuisance parameters. We measure the isotropic BAO scale with $0.93\%$ precision at $z_\mathrm{eff}=2.35$, the Hubble parameter $H(z_\mathrm{eff})=(239.5\pm3.4)~(147.09~\mathrm{Mpc}/r_d) ~\mathrm{km~s}^{-1}~\text{Mpc}^{-1}$, and the transverse comoving distance $D_M(z_\mathrm{eff})=(5.80 \pm 0.10)~(r_d/147.09~\mathrm{Mpc})$~Gpc for a given value of the sound horizon ($r_d$). Our BAO results are entirely consistent with the baseline DR2 analysis.

Karaçaylı, Naim Göksel [Chicago U., KICP; Ohio Sta↗

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗

Hydrogen Infrastructure Analysis for the Port Applications [Slides]

The International Maritime Organization has committed to 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 worldwide as of 2023. This analysis includes performing an inventory and modeling efforts to understand the energy, equipment and cost requirements to support decarbonization of cargo handling and shore power at U.S. Ports, along with assessment of zero- and near- zero emission fuel supplies at or near U.S. ports focused upon Hydrogen technologies. Initial market assessment for ocean going vessels for harbor support and ocean-going vessels is explored. An energy analysis is performed on the port system using a holistic approach and considering the port as an entire ecosystem that functions as a transportation and energy node. Presently, a comprehensive view is lacking for future analysis efforts, this analysis seeks to address this gap in data by evaluating four representative port types and the potential for utilizing hydrogen for the maritime industry. Every port is different, but broadly they could be bracketed into reference cases with scaling factors for the relative size of the port operations. These reference ports are for future use, potentially as baselines for analysis and development of demonstration programs. An equipment inventory for each reference port type (container, bulk, breakbulk, and inland waterway) is presented. A comparative analysis of fuel cell electric and battery electric equipment is conducted based on the following criteria: technology readiness level, refueling/charging time, operational range, energy consumption, and fuel cost savings compared to baseline internal combustion engine equipment. The tradeoffs and synergies between two alternative powertrains is highlighted. Based on energy and infrastructure analysis, average and high equipment utilization profiles across different port types is identified and quantified baseline fuel and electricity demand for various decarbonization scenarios. Based on the portfolio of equipment converted to fuel cell electric, the estimates of initial capital investment are provided for hydrogen refueling stations across ports. An energy demand model is developed that predicts well the all-electric cargo handling equipment annual energy consumption for ports with annual tonnage under 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The model is a good rubric to follow for further energy demand models that can create a scalable solution to understand the energy needs of cargo handling equipment, whether they are all-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, or powered by another fuel-type. Zero and near-zero emission fuel supply at ports is evaluated looking into the characteristics of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as an alternative fuel, as well as the bunkering status. The readiness of reference ports to produce ammonia or methanol and bunker the fuel is examined based on the framework developed by the Global Maritime Forum and Rocky Mountain Institute.

08 HYDROGEN↗