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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Parsimonious Inference Information-Theoretic Foundations for a Complete Theory of Machine Learning (CIS-LDRD Project 218313 Final Technical Report)

This work examines how we may cast machine learning within a complete Bayesian framework to quantify and suppress explanatory complexity from first principles. Our investigation into both the philosophy and mathematics of rational belief leads us to emphasize the critical role of Bayesian inference in learning well-justified predictions within a rigorous and complete extended logic. The Bayesian framework allows us to coherently account for evidence in the learned plausibility of potential explanations. As an extended logic, the Bayesian paradigm regards probability as a notion of degrees of truth. In order to satisfy critical properties of probability as a coherent measure, as well as maintain consistency with binary propositional logic, we arrive at Bayes' Theorem as the only justifiable mechanism to update our beliefs to account for empiracle evidence. Yet, in the machine learning paradigm, where explanations are unconstrained algorithmic abstractions, we arrive at a critical challenge: Bayesian inference requires prior belief. Conventional approaches fail to yield a consistent framework in which we could compare prior plausibility among the infinities of potential choices in learning architectures. The difficulty of articulating well-justified prior belief over abstract models is the provinence of memorization in traditional machine learning training practices. This becomes exceptionally problematic in the context of limited datasets, when we wish to learn justifiable predictions from only a small amount of data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mass of 101 Sn and Bayesian extrapolations to the proton drip line

The favorable energy configurations of nuclei at magic numbers of 𝑁 neutrons and 𝑍 protons are fundamental for understanding the evolution of nuclear structure. The 𝑍 = 50 (tin) isotopic chain is a frontier for such studies, with particular interest at and around the doubly magic 100 Sn isotope, for which the mass is a topic of debate. Precise mass values for neutron-deficient isotopes provide necessary anchor points for mass models to test extrapolations near the proton drip line, where experimental studies remain out of reach. In this work, we report a Penning trap mass measurement of 101 Sn . The determined mass excess of −59889.89⁢(96) keV for 101 Sn represents a factor-of-300 improvement over the current precision and indicates that 101 Sn is less bound than previously thought. Mass predictions from a recently developed Bayesian model combination framework employing statistical machine learning and nuclear masses computed within seven global models based on nuclear density functional theory agree within 1⁢𝜎 with experimental masses from the 48 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 52 isotopic chains. The framework's resilience to new mass data gave confidence in the extrapolation of tin masses down to 𝑁 = 46. Our calculations suggest that 96 Sn is a two-proton drip line nucleus and predict a mass excess of −58090⁢(800) keV for 100 Sn , showing a preference within 1⁢𝜎 for the mass of 100 Sn derived from the 𝛽-delayed 𝑄 value measured at GSI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A mixed, unified forward/inverse framework for earthquake problems: fault implementation and coseismic slip estimate

SUMMARY We introduce a new finite-element (FE) based computational framework to solve forward and inverse elastic deformation problems for earthquake faulting via the adjoint method. Based on two advanced computational libraries, FEniCS and hIPPYlib for the forward and inverse problems, respectively, this framework is flexible, transparent and easily extensible. We represent a fault discontinuity through a mixed FE elasticity formulation, which approximates the stress with higher order accuracy and exposes the prescribed slip explicitly in the variational form without using conventional split node and decomposition discrete approaches. This also allows the first order optimality condition, that is the vanishing of the gradient, to be expressed in continuous form, which leads to consistent discretizations of all field variables, including the slip. We show comparisons with the standard, pure displacement formulation and a model containing an in-plane mode II crack, whose slip is prescribed via the split node technique. We demonstrate the potential of this new computational framework by performing a linear coseismic slip inversion through adjoint-based optimization methods, without requiring computation of elastic Green’s functions. Specifically, we consider a penalized least squares formulation, which in a Bayesian setting—under the assumption of Gaussian noise and prior—reflects the negative log of the posterior distribution. The comparison of the inversion results with a standard, linear inverse theory approach based on Okada’s solutions shows analogous results. Preliminary uncertainties are estimated via eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian of the penalized least squares objective function. Our implementation is fully open-source and Jupyter notebooks to reproduce our results are provided. The extension to a fully Bayesian framework for detailed uncertainty quantification and non-linear inversions, including for heterogeneous media earthquake problems, will be analysed in a forthcoming paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Density reconstruction in convergent high-energy-density systems using x-ray radiography and Bayesian inference

X-ray radiography is a technique frequently used to diagnose convergent high-energy-density (HED) systems, such as inertial confinement fusion implosion, and provides unique information that is not available through self-emission measurements. In this work, we investigate the scope and limits of that information using a radiography simulation combined with the Bayesian inference workflow. The accuracy of density reconstruction from simulated radiographs of spherical implosions driven with 27 kJ laser energy is assessed, including the increase or decrease in accuracy due to the addition of Lagrangian marker layers, Poisson noise, and improved prior information. This work is the first to present the full uncertainty distributions inferred from radiography analysis in HED systems and demonstrates the importance of constructing the full posterior probability density, as opposed to a point estimate, due to the modal structure of the likelihood surface introduced by typical experimental noise sources. This general methodology can be used both for robust analysis of radiographic data and for an improved design of radiography experiments by modeling the full experimental system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring the shape of data: a probabilistic framework for analysing experiments in the natural sciences

A critical step in data analysis for many different types of experiments is the identification of features with theoretically defined shapes in N -dimensional datasets; examples of this process include finding peaks in multi-dimensional molecular spectra or emitters in fluorescence microscopy images. Identifying such features involves determining if the overall shape of the data is consistent with an expected shape; however, it is generally unclear how to quantitatively make this determination. In practice, many analysis methods employ subjective, heuristic approaches, which complicates the validation of any ensuing results—especially as the amount and dimensionality of the data increase. Here, we present a probabilistic solution to this problem by using Bayes’ rule to calculate the probability that the data have any one of several potential shapes. This probabilistic approach may be used to objectively compare how well different theories describe a dataset, identify changes between datasets and detect features within data using a corollary method called Bayesian Inference-based Template Search; several proof-of-principle examples are provided. Altogether, this mathematical framework serves as an automated ‘engine’ capable of computationally executing analysis decisions currently made by visual inspection across the sciences.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian automated weighting of aggregated DFT, MD, and experimental data for candidate thermodynamic models of aluminum with uncertainty quantification

Atomic-scale modeling methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) can predict the thermodynamic properties of materials at a lower cost than experimental measurements. However, their regular usage in thermodynamic model construction is hampered by the lack of quantitative agreement with experimental measurements and the lack of uncertainty estimates on the data. To make regular usage of this atomistic simulation data, it is important to assess whether the atomistic simulation datasets, by themselves or in combination with experimental measurements, result in the same physics-informed models best supported by experimental measurements alone. Here, models of aluminum thermodynamic properties are discussed using three data sources: atomistic calculations (DFT and MD), experiments, and a combination of atomistic calculations and experiments. The study shows that, after ensuring self-consistency in predicting key invariant points, both experimental measurements and atomistic calculations can significantly contribute to an optimal model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Physics of Atomic Nuclei from First Principles

Atomic nuclei exhibit multiple energy scales ranging from hundreds of MeV in binding energies to fractions of an MeV for low-lying collective excitations. As the limits of nuclear binding are approached near the neutron and proton drip lines, traditional shell structure starts to melt with an onset of deformation and an emergence of coexisting shapes. It is a long-standing challenge to describe this multiscale physics starting from nuclear forces with roots in quantum chromodynamics. Here, we achieve this within a unified and nonperturbative quantum many-body framework that captures both short- and long-range correlations starting from modern nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory. The short-range (dynamic) correlations which account for the bulk of the binding energy are included within a symmetry-breaking framework, while long-range (static) correlations (and fine details about the collective structure) are included by employing symmetry projection techniques. Our calculations accurately reproduce—within theoretical error bars—available experimental data for low-lying collective states and the electromagnetic quadrupole transitions in 20−30 Ne. In addition, we reveal coexisting spherical and deformed shapes in 30 Ne, which indicates the breakdown of the magic neutron number 𝑁 = 20 as the key nucleus 28 O is approached, and we predict that the drip line nuclei 32,34 Ne are strongly deformed and collective. By developing reduced-order models for symmetry-projected states, we perform a global sensitivity analysis and find that the subleading singlet 𝑆-wave contact and a pion-nucleon coupling strongly impact nuclear deformation in chiral effective field theory. The techniques developed in this work clarify how microscopic nuclear forces generate the multiscale physics of nuclei spanning collective phenomena as well as short-range correlations and allow one to capture emergent and dynamical phenomena in finite fermion systems such as atom clusters, molecules, and atomic nuclei.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of causality constraints on Bayesian analyses of heavy-ion collisions

There have long been questions about the limits to the validity of relativistic fluid dynamics and whether it is being used outside its regime of validity in modern simulations of relativistic heavy-ion collisions. An important new tool for answering this question is a causality analysis in the nonlinear regime—if the solutions of the evolution equations do not respect relativistic causality, then they are not a faithful representation of the underlying relativistic theory (in this case, quantum chromodynamics). Using this nonlinear criterion, it has recently been shown that hydrodynamics is indeed being used outside its regime of validity in simulations, at least sometimes. Here we explore the phenomenological implications, particularly the quantitative effects of demanding limits on acausality in modern Bayesian parameter estimation. We find that, while typically only a small fraction of the system's energy is initially in an acausal regime, placing strict limits on the allowed energy fraction significantly changes the preferred properties of the initial condition, which in turn alters the extracted medium properties such as bulk viscosity, where large values are no longer favored. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of developing better theoretical descriptions of the early-time, out-of-equilibrium dynamics of relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiative properties of quantum emitters in boron nitride from excited state calculations and Bayesian analysis

Abstract Point defects in hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) have attracted growing attention as bright single-photon emitters. However, understanding of their atomic structure and radiative properties remains incomplete. Here we study the excited states and radiative lifetimes of over 20 native defects and carbon or oxygen impurities in hBN using ab initio density functional theory and GW plus Bethe-Salpeter equation calculations, generating a large data set of their emission energy, polarization and lifetime. We find a wide variability across quantum emitters, with exciton energies ranging from 0.3 to 4 eV and radiative lifetimes from ns to ms for different defect structures. Through a Bayesian statistical analysis, we identify various high-likelihood charge-neutral defect emitters, among which the native V N N B defect is predicted to possess emission energy and radiative lifetime in agreement with experiments. Our work advances the microscopic understanding of hBN single-photon emitters and introduces a computational framework to characterize and identify quantum emitters in 2D materials.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying native point defect configurations in α-alumina

Intimately intertwined atomic and electronic structures of point defects govern diffusion-limited corrosion and underpin the operation of optoelectronic devices. For some materials, complex energy landscapes containing metastable defect configurations challenge first-principles modeling efforts. Here, we thoroughly reevaluate native point defect geometries for the illustrative case of α-Al 2 O 3 by comparing three methods for sampling candidate geometries in density functional theory calculations: displacing atoms near a naively placed defect, initializing interstitials at high-symmetry points of a Voronoi decomposition, and Bayesian optimization. We find symmetry-breaking distortions for oxygen vacancies in some charge states, and we identify several distinct oxygen split-interstitial geometries that help explain literature discrepancies involving this defect. We also report a surprising and, to our knowledge, previously unknown trigonal geometry favored by aluminum interstitials in some charge states. Importantly, these new configurations may have transformative impacts on our understanding of defect migration pathways in aluminum-oxide scales protecting metal alloys from corrosion. Overall, the Voronoi scheme appears most effective for sampling candidate interstitial sites because it always succeeded in finding the lowest-energy geometry identified in this study, although no approach found every metastable configuration. Finally, we show that the position of defect levels within the band gap can depend strongly on the defect geometry, underscoring the need to conduct careful searches for ground-state geometries in defect calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring modified gravity: constraints on the μ and Σ parametrization with WMAP , ACT, and SPT

ABSTRACT The cosmic acceleration problem remains one of the most significant challenges in cosmology. One of the proposed solutions to this problem is the modification of gravity on large scales. In this paper, we explore the well-known μ–Σ parametrization scenarios and confront them with observational data, including the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), and South Pole Telescope (SPT), as well as large-scale structure data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS; baryon acoustic oscillation + redshift-space distortion) and Pantheon supernova (SN) catalogue. We employ a Bayesian framework to constrain the model parameters and discuss the implications of our results on the viability of modified gravity theories. Our analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of the μ–Σ parametrization and provides valuable insights into the nature of gravity on cosmological scales. From the joint analysis of the ACT + WMAP + SDSS + SN, we find μ0 − 1 = 0.02 ± 0.19 and Σ0 − 1 = 0.021 ± 0.068 at 68 per cent confidence level (CL). In light of the SPT + WMAP + SDSS + SN, we find μ0 − 1 = 0.07 ± 0.18 and $\Sigma _0 -1 = -0.009^{+0.078}_{-0.11}$ at 68 per cent CL. In all the analyses carried out, we do not find any deviations from the theory of general relativity. Our results represent an observational update on the well-known μ–Σ parametrization in view of current CMB data, independent of and competitive with the constraints obtained with the Planck data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitive Detection of Structural Differences using a Statistical Framework for Comparative Crystallography

Chemical and conformational changes underlie the functional cycles of proteins. Comparative crystallography can reveal these changes over time, over ligands, and over chemical and physical perturbations in atomic detail. A key difficulty, however, is that the resulting observations must be placed on the same scale by correcting for experimental factors. We recently introduced a Bayesian framework for correcting (scaling) X-ray diffraction data by combining deep learning with statistical priors informed by crystallographic theory. To scale comparative crystallography data, we here combine this framework with a multivariate statistical theory of comparative crystallography. By doing so, we find strong improvements in the detection of protein dynamics, element-specific anomalous signal, and the binding of drug fragments.

Hekstra, Doeke R. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (U↗
DOE OSTI2024

Universal reduced basis for the calibration of covariant energy density functionals

The reduced basis method is used to construct a “universal” basis of Dirac orbitals that may be applicable throughout the nuclear chart to calibrate covariant energy density functionals. Relative to the successful development of a reduced basis emulator for the nonrelativistic Schrödinger equation, the Dirac equation adds an extra layer of complexity due to the existence of negative energy states, which complicates building an efficient reduced basis. However, once this problem is mitigated, the resulting reduced basis is able to accurately and efficiently reproduce the high-fidelity model at a fraction of the computational cost. We are confident that the resulting reduced basis will serve as a foundational element in developing rapid and accurate emulators. In turn, these emulators will play a critical role in the Bayesian optimization of covariant energy density functionals.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian refinement of covariant energy density functionals

The last five years have seen remarkable progress in our quest to determine the equation of state of neutron rich matter. Here, recent advances across the theoretical, experimental, and observational landscape have been incorporated in a Bayesian framework to refine existing covariant energy density functionals previously calibrated by the properties of finite nuclei. In particular, constraints on the maximum neutron star mass from pulsar timing, on stellar radii from the NICER mission, on tidal deformabilities from the LIGO-Virgo collaboration, and on the dynamics of pure neutron matter as predicted from chiral effective field theories have resulted in significant refinements to the models, particularly to those predicting a stiff symmetry energy. Still, even after these improvements, we find it challenging to reproduce simultaneously the neutron skin thickness of both 208 Pb and 48 Ca recently reported by the PREX/CREX collaboration.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian optimization of entropy-stabilized metal fluoride conversion cathodes and their synthesis

Fluoride-based conversion cathodes are promising for next-generation Li ion batteries because of their high voltage and energy densities. High entropy earth abundant fluoride cathodes are attractive for sustainable battery because of the potentially higher cycling stability. While Ni and Co containing equimolar alloys stabilized by high entropy were considered previously, Ni and Co free non-equimolar metal alloy compositions might offer new opportunities to increase materials stability and average voltage. This opportunity was pursued using Bayesian optimization of average voltage for the computational prediction of (Fe x1 Cu x2 Zn x3 Mn x4 Mg x5 )F 2 cathode chemistries. Theoretical voltage, room temperature free energy, and electronic structure of potentially high voltage compositions were computed using density functional theory calculations. Here, the experimental realization of non-equimolar quinary Co and Ni free fluorides with stable rutile single phase and improved conversion reaction voltage by up to 28 % compared to the equimolar alloy demonstrated the power of Bayesian optimization methods for the computationally guided experimental synthesis of fluoride cathodes. Finally, non-equimolar cathode chemistries were found with cycling stability superior to known multi-element fluorides.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗