Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Building energy prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2022

SolarPlus-Optimizer v0.1

With the falling costs of solar arrays and battery storage and reduced reliability of the grid due to natural disasters, small-scale local generation and storage resources are beginning to proliferate. However, very few software options exist for integrated control of building loads, batteries and other distributed energy resources. The available software solutions on the market can force customers to adopt one particular ecosystem of products, thus limiting consumer choice, and are often incapable of operating independently of the grid during blackouts. In this software package, we present the "Solar+ Optimizer" (SPO), a control platform that provides demand flexibility, resiliency and reduced utility bills, built using open-source software. SPO employs Model Predictive Control (MPC) to produce real time optimal control strategies for the building loads and the distributed energy resources on site. SPO is designed to be vendor-agnostic, protocol-independent and resilient to loss of wide-area network connectivity. The software was evaluated in a real convenience store in northern California with on-site solar generation, battery storage and control of HVAC and commercial refrigeration loads. Preliminary tests showed price responsiveness of the building and cost savings of more than 10% in energy costs alone.

Prakash, AnandKrishnan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the effect of multiple load flexibility strategies on commercial building electricity demand and services via surrogate modeling

The expansion of commercial building demand response as a demand-side management resource for the electric grid necessitates new decision support resources for customers seeking to assess the benefit–risk tradeoffs of possible strategies for energy flexible building operations. To address this need, we, in this study, develop surrogate models that predict the impacts of several load flexibility strategies on commercial building electricity demand and indoor temperature, focusing on offices and retail buildings at multiple scales. The surrogate models are fit to a synthetic database generated via whole building simulations, which establish the relationships between the key operational features of a given strategy and potential changes in building demand and temperature across a variety of contexts. The surrogate models are translated to a Bayesian framework to allow straightforward communication of uncertainty and parameter updating given new evidence. We find strong predictive performance across the suite of models, underscoring the usefulness of the approach in guiding decisions about implementing load flexibility strategies under a particular set of operational and environmental conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occupancy-Based Controls for an All-Electric Residential Community in a Cold Climate

In residential buildings, rapid improvements in sensors, communication, and information technology have enabled occupancy-based building controls. These controls utilize occupancy information and modify the operation of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to minimize excess HVAC energy use, especially when the building is unoccupied. This reduces the total building energy consumption and utility bills while maintaining thermal comfort. In this paper, we present two novel occupancy-driven controls - reactive control and predictive control - and compare their performance. We model an all-electric residential community based on a 27- home community in Basalt, Colorado, in the United States. We simulated various scenarios, considering different temperature setback and control algorithms, to analyze the community-scale impact of these occupancy-based controls. The results show that total HVAC energy savings in a building ranges from 1%- 20% compared to the baseline scenario without occupancy-based controls. The energy-saving potential is highly correlated with the occupancy pattern and temperature setback in the building.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occupancy-Based Controls for an All-Electric Residential Community in a Cold Climate: Preprint

In residential buildings, rapid improvements in sensors, communication, and information technology have enabled occupancy-based building controls. These controls utilize occupancy information and modify the operation of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to minimize excess HVAC energy use, especially when the building is unoccupied. This reduces the total building energy consumption and utility bills while maintaining thermal comfort. In this paper, we present two novel occupancy-driven controls - reactive control and predictive control - and compare their performance. We model an all-electric residential community based on a 27- home community in Basalt, Colorado, in the United States. We simulated various scenarios, considering different temperature setback and control algorithms, to analyze the community-scale impact of these occupancy-based controls. The results show that total HVAC energy savings in a building ranges from 1%- 20% compared to the baseline scenario without occupancy-based controls. The energy-saving potential is highly correlated with the occupancy pattern and temperature setback in the building.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration and Evaluation of Explainable and Trustworthy Predictive Technology for Condition-based Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet has historically relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming predictive maintenance (PdM) programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) can help simplify complex problems such as diagnosing equipment degradation to enable more effective decision-making efforts. The benefits of AI will be felt through more efficient plant O&M, improved work processes, and better integration of people and technology. Together, these benefits hold the promise to make nuclear power more sustainable by reducing O&M costs while improving employee engagement. While AI and ML technologies hold significant promise for the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. Explainability and trustworthiness of AI are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in NPPs. This research focuses specifically on addressing the explainability and trustworthiness of AI technologies to advance the human, technical, and organization (HTO) readiness levels in adopting a risk-informed PdM strategy at commercial NPPs. In addition, this approach can be adapted to enhance the acceptability of AI in other nuclear applications with a few application-specific modifications. The technical approach ensuring wider adoption of AI technologies was developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—in collaboration with Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), Nuclear, LLC—by utilizing the circulating water system (CWS) at two PSEG-owned plant sites for demonstration. Focused user studies were performed in collaboration with subject matter experts (SMEs) from PSEG and other nuclear domains to enhance human and organization readiness by building trust in AI-informed technologies. VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER)—a Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, copyrighted software—was developed and expanded to provide a user-centric visualization by incorporating inputs from the collaborating utility, human factors engineering guidelines, and data analysts. The VIPER software enables users, who may be unfamiliar with ML in general, to be interactively engaged by asking technical questions about PdM, work orders, diagnosis results and their confidence levels, the kind of data being used, and the types of ML algorithms employed. This interactive engagement enhances explainability and builds trust. One of the enabling accomplishments was the integration of large language models (LLMs), both text-based and vision-based, in the VIPER software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ultimate Strength of Metals

We present a theoretical model that predicts the peak strength of polycrystalline metals based on the activation energy (or stress) required to cause deformation via amorphization. Building on extensive earlier work, this model is based purely on materials properties, requires no adjustable parameters, and is shown to accurately predict the strength of four exemplar metals (fcc, bcc, and hcp, and an alloy). This framework reveals new routes for design of more complex high-strength materials systems, such as compositionally complex alloys, multiphase systems, nonmetals, and composite structures.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Weatherization Assistant NEAT/MHEA

The software provides a measure selection technique indicating cost effective retrofit activities that can be applied to a home using a standard Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR). Users must provide an input file describing the characteristics of the home to be evaluated. The software takes the input data provided and calculates energy savings and cost savings predicted for a standard set of measures given the input parameters. The Weatherization Assistant computes estimates of pre-retrofit whole building space heating and cooling energy consumptions based on the house description data supplied by the user. The consumptions are computed using a monthly heating and cooling variable base degree-day method by algorithms similar to those developed for the CIRA program [LBL, 1982]. The building consumptions are needed in computing the energy savings from measures affecting the efficiencies of the heating and cooling equipment. Weatherization Assistant then computes the energy savings and costs for each individual measure applicable to the building described as if it were the only measure installed in the house. From these energy savings, a discounted dollar savings over the life of each measure is computed. The ratio of this dollar savings to the cost of installing the measure, the "savings-to-investment ratio" (SIR), is used in an initial ranking of the measures' effectiveness. The "interacted" savings and SIR of measures are then determined assuming the measures are added to the house collectively, in order of their ranking, e.g., the second ranked measure is installed in the house initially described by the user after having been modified by the first ranked measure. If this second-ranked measure's updated SIR is greater than a user-defined limit, the measure is left implemented, else it is removed so that the next measure's effectiveness is not dependent on it. The choice between two mutually exclusive measures (such as different levels of insulation) is made on the basis of their "net present value" (NPV), the difference of life-time savings and installation cost, rather than their SIR. This has been shown to be the more correct criterion on which to base the selection between two measures, both of which cannot be installed. The audit computes and reports to the user the energy savings, discounted dollar savings, installation cost, and SIR for each measure considered cost-effective. For those with SIR greater than the user-designated cutoff, a materials list gives the material name, type, and quantity required for installation of the measure. Weatherization Assistant permits entry of pre-retrofit billing data for gas or electrically heated homes or homes with electric air-conditioning. The user may then make the decision to have the savings of the measures adjusted to reflect the difference in billed consumption and that predicted by the program.

Gettings, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transfer learning for smart buildings: A critical review of algorithms, applications, and future perspectives

Smart buildings play a crucial role toward decarbonizing society, as globally buildings emit about one-third of greenhouse gases. In the last few years, machine learning has achieved a notable momentum that, if properly harnessed, may unleash its potential for advanced analytics and control of smart buildings, enabling the technique to scale up for supporting the decarbonization of the building sector. In this perspective, transfer learning aims to improve the performance of a target learner exploiting knowledge in related environments. The present work provides a comprehensive overview of transfer learning applications in smart buildings, classifying and analyzing 77 papers according to their applications, algorithms, and adopted metrics. The study identified four main application areas of transfer learning: (1) building load prediction, (2) occupancy detection and activity recognition, (3) building dynamics modeling, and (4) energy systems control. Furthermore, the review highlighted the role of deep learning in transfer learning applications that has been used in more than half of the analyzed studies. The paper also discusses how to integrate transfer learning in a smart building's ecosystem, identifying, for each application area, the research gaps and guidelines for future research directions.

Pinto, G↗
DOE OSTI2024

A metastable pentagonal 2D material synthesized by symmetry-driven epitaxy

Most two-dimensional (2D) materials experimentally studied so far have hexagons as their building blocks. Only a few exceptions, such as PdSe 2 , are lower in energy in pentagonal phases and exhibit pentagons as building blocks. Although theory has predicted a large number of pentagonal 2D materials, many of these are metastable and their experimental realization is difficult. Here, in this paper, we report the successful synthesis of a metastable pentagonal 2D material, monolayer pentagonal PdTe 2 , by symmetry-driven epitaxy. Scanning tunnelling microscopy and complementary spectroscopy measurements are used to characterize this material, which demonstrates well-ordered low-symmetry atomic arrangements and is stabilized by lattice matching with the underlying Pd(100) substrate. Theoretical calculations, along with angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, reveal monolayer pentagonal PdTe 2 to be a semiconductor with an indirect bandgap of 1.05 eV. Our work opens an avenue for the synthesis of pentagon-based 2D materials and gives opportunities to explore their applications such as multifunctional nanoelectronics.

interfaces↗
DOE OSTI2023

An evaluation of the demand response potential of integrated dynamic window and HVAC systems

Demand response (DR) increases the flexibility and reliability of the electricity grid as use of intermittent renewable energy sources increases. HVAC and envelope DR measures present the largest aggregate energy and peak demand savings potential of all commercial building end uses because their net demand savings occur during critical peak demand periods. Controllable envelope measures include switchable electrochromic windows, operable window attachments such as outdoor louvers, roller shades, and awnings, as well as other innovative facade technologies that can modulate both solar heat gain and daylight admission over a broad solar-optical range. This study evaluated the technical potential of DR-enabled dynamic windows to reduce critical peak demand for a prototypical medium office building situated in all 16 U.S. climates. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms were designed to minimize electricity cost in daylit perimeter office zones through control of an electrochromic window with and without HVAC thermostat setpoint control. Conventional and time-of-use rates were used to shape the degree of DR. Median annual peak demand savings with window and thermostat control across all climate zones were 24.3 kW (4.4 W/m 2 ) per building or 15.9 W/m 2 for non-north perimeter zones. Resource adequacy at the whole building level was estimated to be 13.1 to 43.4 $/kW per year over the 30-year life of the installation. Co-benefits were increased energy efficiency, and reduced electricity cost and emissions. Visual and thermal comfort requirements were met at all times. Dynamic facades controlled by MPC have substantial technical potential for DR across all U.S. climates and warrant serious consideration for inclusion in DR portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Site demonstration and performance evaluation of MPC for a large chiller plant with TES for renewable energy integration and grid decarbonization

Thermal energy storage (TES) for a cooling plant is a crucial resource for load flexibility. Traditionally, simple, heuristic control approaches, such as the storage priority control which charges TES during the nighttime and discharges during the daytime, have been widely used in practice, and shown reasonable performance in the past benefiting both the grid and the end-users such as buildings and district energy systems. However, the increasing penetration of renewables changes the situation, exposing the grid to a growing duck curve, which encourages the consumption of more energy in the daytime, and volatile renewable generation which requires dynamic planning. The growing pressure of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions also increases the complexity of cooling TES plant operations as different control strategies may apply to optimize operations for energy cost or carbon emissions. This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC), site demonstration and evaluation results of optimal operation of a chiller plant, TES and behind-meter photovoltaics for a campus-level district cooling system. The MPC was formulated as a mixed-integer linear program for better numerical and control properties. Compared with baseline rule-based controls, the MPC results show reductions of the excess PV power by around 25%, of the greenhouse gas emission by 10%, and of peak electricity demand by 10%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Architector for high-throughput cross-periodic table 3D complex building

Abstract Rare-earth and actinide complexes are critical for a wealth of clean-energy applications. Three-dimensional (3D) structural generation and prediction for these organometallic systems remains a challenge, limiting opportunities for computational chemical discovery. Here, we introduce Architector , a high-throughput in-silico synthesis code for s-, p-, d-, and f-block mononuclear organometallic complexes capable of capturing nearly the full diversity of the known experimental chemical space. Beyond known chemical space, Architector performs in-silico design of new complexes including any chemically accessible metal-ligand combinations. Architector leverages metal-center symmetry, interatomic force fields, and tight binding methods to build many possible 3D conformers from minimal 2D inputs including metal oxidation and spin state. Over a set of more than 6,000 x-ray diffraction (XRD)-determined complexes spanning the periodic table, we demonstrate quantitative agreement between Architector-predicted and experimentally observed structures. Further, we demonstrate out-of-the box conformer generation and energetic rankings of non-minimum energy conformers produced from Architector , which are critical for exploring potential energy surfaces and training force fields. Overall, Architector represents a transformative step towards cross-periodic table computational design of metal complex chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Building Start (SBS) (CRADA 480)

The idea of Smart Building Start (SBS) is to manage the on/off scheduling of HVAC equipment in buildings in an optimal way in order to achieve comfort conditions at the designated times with the minimal use of energy. This concept is also known as Optimal Start and it has typically been used in buildings to start up equipment based on predictions made for a representative (or average) zone in a building. This means that zones that could have waited longer to receive conditioned air are activated too early leading to unnecessary energy loss. The approach proposed in this project is to develop and implement a distributed version of optimal start that will consider the individual requirements of all treated zones. The developed control strategy will enable smart start of the central plant as well as further localized control over each individual zone by means of setpoint adjustment so that zones are not conditioned too early thereby reducing energy use compared to the current state of the art. This project is a collaboration between PNNL and Verdicity with the goal being to bring the research concept of SBS to commercialization. The SBS algorithm(s) will be implemented and hosted on the PNNL-developed open-platform VOLTTRON which will accelerate bringing the research to practice. It is anticipated that this project will lead to new IP surrounding the algorithm and its decentralized deployment. The project will also further demonstrate the success of VOLTRON as a flexible platform for implementation of innovative algorithms for improving energy efficiency in buildings. Previous studies on smart building start carried out by PNNL have indicated potential energy savings on the order of 10-15% for multi-zone buildings compared to conventional strategies. Verdicity currently has a number of customers who can benefit from the use of this technology. PNNL will work with Verdicity to identify any key gaps in the integrated software and jointly work to enhance and customize it for Verdicity and to integrate it with their existing products for use at their customers’ sites. The proposed work will help previously funded Federal research and development technology investments find their way into a viable commercial market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗