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At least 127 records · Page 7

Navigating the obstacles of carbon-negative technologies

Nine years after the Paris Agreement was adopted, it is clear that negative-emission technologies are required to keep 1.5°C, or even 2°C, of global warming in reach. Yet carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies remain rife with political, technical, economic, environmental, and geographic challenges. Here, this Voices surveys the pitfalls of incorporating carbon-negative technologies into climate mitigation plans and asks: how can we navigate around the challenges to make CDR a reliable component of climate mitigation?

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Alkaline cation enrichment and water electrolysis to provide CO 2 mineralization and global-scale carbon management

Provided herein are methods of removing carbon dioxide from an aqueous stream or gaseous stream by: contacting the gaseous stream comprising carbon dioxide, when present, with an aqueous solution comprising ions capable of forming an insoluble carbonate salt; contacting the aqueous solution comprising carbon dioxide with an electroactive mesh that induces its alkalinization thereby forcing the precipitation of a carbonate solid from the solution and thereby the removal of dissolved inorganic carbon by electrolysis; and removing the precipitated carbonate solids from the solution, or the surface of the mesh where they may deposit. Also provided herein are flow-through electrolytic reactors comprising an intake device in fluid connection with a rotating cylinder comprising an electroactive mesh, and a scraping device and/or liquid-spray based device for separating a solid from the mesh surface.

Sant, Gaurav↗

Electrochemical Acid Sequestration to Ease Ocean Acidification (EASE-OA) - CRADA 600 (Abstract)

The PNNL team will coordinate logistics involved with setting up the field trial on the PNNL Sequim campus in collaboration with Ebb Carbon. Facilities on the PNNL Sequim campus are capable of pumping raw or filtered seawater from Sequim Bay at a rate ~45,000 L hr -1 , which can accommodate the 4000 L hr -1 requirement of the 200 ton CO2 yr-1 Ebb Carbon marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) system. The primary tasks for the PNNL team are 1) laying out appropriate indoor and outdoor spaces for installing the Ebb Carbon’s mCDR system, 2) facilitating Ebb Carbon’s access to the PNNL’s seawater intake on the PNNL Sequim campus, 3) conducting mesocosm experiments within the PNNL Sequim campus laboratories to test how the brine and base discharged from the Ebb Carbon system affect marine life, and 4) facilitating Ebb Carbon access to the PNNL Sequim installation site and aiding in maintenance as needed. In addition to these tasks, the PNNL team will provide surface water quality data (e.g., salinity, temperature, pH, dissolved O2) from a monitoring station located on the pier to contextualize starting conditions of the seawater used in the mCDR process. Finally, the PNNL team will also consult with Ebb Carbon on strategies for improving overall system performance and next steps for further scaling and/or monitoring the effectiveness of the mCDR system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Novel Framework to Evaluate the Costs and Potential of Bioenergy in Decarbonization of the U.S. Economy

The long-term strategy of the United States targets reaching economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050 and a carbon-neutral electricity grid by 2035 (U.S. Department of State and U.S. Executive Office of the President, 2021). Meeting these targets would require considerable changes to the energy system. Some key characteristics of illustrative net-zero energy systems include increased penetration of renewable energy and carbon sources, use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in hard-to-abate sectors, and a greater role for energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen (Davis et al, 2018). Another common feature of such energy systems is the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches (Horowitz et al, 2022). Across all these characteristics of net-zero energy systems, bioenergy and biomass feedstock is anticipated to play an important role. Biomass feedstock serves as a renewable carbon source. This can enable conversion of such feedstock into fuels and energy carriers for hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation. Indeed, the U.S. Government has a target to meet all jet fuel demand by 2050 from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), where biofuel pathways are likely to have an important role (EERE, 2020). Bioenergy is also highly versatile with the possibility to convert feedstock into electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat or high-value products, based on biomass type, demand and technology availability (Clarke et al, 2022). Combination of bioenergy with CCS can also nominally deliver CDR (Fuhrman et al, 2023). As such, the share of bioenergy is expected to grow by at least five time across scenarios studied for the long-term strategy of the U.S. between 2020 and 2050 (Horowitz et al, 2022). Notwithstanding the role of bioenergy in the energy systems, its deployment, costs and scalability are influenced by a number of factors. Some of these factors pertain to policy interventions such as imposition of a binding decarbonization target either at an economy-wide level or the sectoral level. Resource availability and type of biomass feedstock also varies considerably across regions. From a technological perspective, the readiness of bioenergy conversion pathways is subject to high variability. This influences the costs of deployment. Moreover, the sourcing of feedstock, grid carbon intensity, and co-product handling approaches all affect the life cycle efficacy of bioenergy. The latter, in turn, is particularly important in determining the extent to which bioenergy with CCS or BECCS can effectively deliver CDR (Fajardy and Mac Dowell, 2017).

air emission↗

Large-Scale Carbon Removal Will Create Public Health, Economic, and Climate Tradeoffs

Economy-wide efforts to achieve net-zero emissions offer both climate and air quality-related public health benefits from reducing fossil fuel combustion. We explore the expected costs and benefits if carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is deployed at scale in support of these efforts. Six leading forms of CDR at two levels of deployment are compared to a scenario with no U.S. climate action. We find that heavy reliance on CDR avoids a $2.5-5.8 trillion USD2020 in climate damages, provides $2.8-6.5 trillion USD2020 public health benefits, returns $5-6 trillion USD2020 in CDR revenues, but requires $11-13 trillion USD2020 CO2 mitigation cost, cumulatively by 2050 in the U.S. In contrast, lower reliance on CDR requires much deeper near-term fossil-fuel reductions, which increases mitigation costs by 52% but also creates 26% higher public health benefits from reductions in particulate matter- and ozone-related mortality and morbidity, preventing about 12,600 premature deaths by mid-century in the U.S.

Javadi, Parisa↗

Abstract for CRADA between Mati Car bon PBC and NETL

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) will assist Mati Carbon PBC (participant) in the design and execution of their community benefits plan (CBP) for scaling Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW) carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in Arkansas. ERW involves spreading finely crushed rocks in agricultural fields to speed up the dissolution and release of certain minerals that amend soil acidity, replenish soil nutrients, and simultaneously converting CO 2 from the atmosphere to Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC). ERW not only removes CO 2 from the atmosphere but also has the potential to generate co-benefits for famers through cost reductions and increased crop yields. The collaboration between NETL and Mati Carbon, PBC (participant) will entail a detailed review of the economic, environmental and community impact of ERW in agricultural settings. This review will guide all project related decisions. It will provide a better understanding of the scale of these potential co-benefits and quantify community needs that ERW can address.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NH 4 OH Looping with Membrane CO 2 Absorber and Distributed Stripper for Enhanced Algae Growth

The University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy (UK CAER) has devised a unique, integrated CO2 capture and utilization technology. CO2 from coal-fired power generation flue gas is first captured at half the operating cost of a typical aqueous CO2 capture system (CCS), distributed in an aqueous stream and then fixed by algae in bioreactors where the algae production is increased by 50% over that with a typical intermittent nutrient feeding system. Lower CCS operating cost is achieved by eliminating the flue gas pretreatment step for cooling and SO2 removal, eliminating steam extraction from the power generation steam cycle for solvent regeneration, and eliminating CO2 compression. Higher algae production is achieved by continuous, just-in-time nutrient feed to the bioreactors directly from a distributed solvent regenerator, which maintains the bioreactor pH for optimum growth. The process starts with a uniquely configured membrane absorber, where the flue gas is indirectly contacted with an ammonium hydroxide (NH4OH) solvent. Dissolved NH3 is attractive for both CO2 capture and as an algae nutrient. For CO2 capture it is inexpensive, has a low regeneration energy, is thermally- and oxidatively-stable and has a viscosity near that of water, which makes is easy to transport. Numerous studies have shown that the scrubbing capacity of NH3 is approximately 0.9-1.2 kg of CO2/kg of NH3, with a CO2 removal efficiency of ~99% and half the solvent regeneration energy than that of 30 wt% MEA[1, 2, 3]. NH3 is attractive as an algae nutrient due to its low cost. The rich NH4OH solvent is pumped to a set of distributed regenerators which are co-located with the algae bioreactors. Solvent pumping, transport and distribution reduces the balance of plant (BOP) cost compared to a typical aqueous CCS related to the flue gas duct and boost fan required to transport the flue gas. The energy required for the distributed solvent regeneration is supplied by solar-thermal panels eliminating the need for steam extraction from the power generation steam cycle. After solvent regeneration, the product stream contains both the CO2 captured from the flue gas and volatized NH3 from the solvent. This product stream is fed directly to the bioreactors, eliminating the need for compression of the CO2 stream. The relative amounts of CO2 and NH3 in the product stream are adjusted and controlled by a controlling the regeneration conditions (pressure and temperature). The continuous feed of the right ratio of nutrients overcomes the typical inhibition of algae growth resulting from frequent pH swings in the bioreactor due to unbalanced (intermittent) feeding systems for CO2 and N. Also, because the regenerators will operate at pressure and be located in close proximity to the bioreactors, there is no worry about pressure drop when sparging the gas into the algae. Sparging produces small bubbles which is beneficial for mass transfer efficiency. One known challenge when using an NH4OH solvent is high NH3 emission. Hydrophobic membranes are used for CO2 capture using an aqueous NH3 solution[4, 5] without the direct contact between flue gas and aqueous solution. Additionally, UK CAER CO2 capture and utilization process manages NH3 slip in three extra measures. First, NH3 slip is minimized by working with minimal species partial pressure, which is proportional to the concentration in the liquid. Hence, lowering the capture solvent concentration will lower the NH3 partial pressure. Second, UK CAER’s previous work has demonstrated that the addition of Zn2+ into NH3 solutions to chelate the NH3 can reduce NH3 volatility. Third, the configuration of the membrane CO2 absorber utilizes condensed water from the flue gas to continually wash the gas-side of the membrane to reduce fouling and recapture NH3 slip. Additional details about the UK CAER unique, integrated CO2 capture and utilization technology will be presented along with technology development plans. Diao, N., Q. Li, and Z. Fang. 2004. Heat transfer in ground heat exchangers with groundwater advection. International Journal of Thermal Sciences. 43: 1203-1211, He, Q., M. Chen, L. Meng, K. Liu, and W. Pan. 2004. Study on Carbon Dioxide Removal from Flue Gas by Absorption of Aqueous Ammonia. Western Kentucky University. Yeh, A.C., and H. Bai. 1999. Comparison of ammonia and monoethanolamine solvents to reduce CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. The Science of the Total Environment. 228: 121-133, Villeneuve, K., D. Roizard, J.C. Remigy, M. Iacono, and S. Rode. 2018. CO2 capture by aqueous ammonia with hollow fiber membrane contactors: Gas phase reactions and performance stability. Separation and Purification Technology, 199: 189-197, Toro Molina, C., and C. Bouallou. 2016. Carbon dioxide absorption by ammonia intensified with membrane contactors. Clean Techn Environ Policy 18, 2133–2146 (2016)

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Trends and limits of CO 2 capture in solid and liquid sorbents at standard conditions

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a critical role in achieving climate change mitigation targets, offering a pathway to decarbonize power generation, industrial processes, and heat production while addressing atmospheric CO 2 removal. While CCS technologies are technically advanced, the widespread adoption of 100 % CO 2 capture capacities such as 1 mol of CO 2 /mol of material and 1 g CO 2 /g storage (targeted by the DARPA, Defense Sciences Office, USA Govt.) has raised questions about the feasibility of achieving higher capture capacities. In the context of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, reaching 100 % CO 2 capture capacity is increasingly necessary, with residual emissions requiring complementary carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. This review exclusively focuses on the CO 2 capture capacities of various sorbents under standard conditions, using different evaluation metrics. This study explores the performance of solid and liquid sorbents under standard conditions, analyzing factors including surface area, pore structure, solvent type, and functionalization to identify materials optimized for industrial-scale CCS applications. Emerging sorbents, including ILs, MOFs, COFs, POPs, DES, RCC, hybrid materials, and reactive sorbents, offer significant potential for enhanced selectivity and energy-efficient regeneration. Through a systematic assessment of gravimetric, volumetric, and molar capacities, the study provides insights into material efficiencies and trade-offs, offering guidance on optimizing sorbent selection for specific applications. The research advances understanding of scalable CCS technologies, contributing to global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions and address the pressing challenge of climate change.

Absorption↗

Cyanobacteria newly isolated from marine volcanic seeps display rapid sinking and robust, high-density growth

Cyanobacteria are photosynthetic organisms that play important roles in carbon cycling and are promising bioproduction chassis. Here, we isolate two novel cyanobacteria with 4.6Mbp genomes, UTEX 3221 and UTEX 3222, from a unique marine environment with naturally elevated CO₂. We describe complete genome sequences for both isolates and, focusing on UTEX 3222 due to its planktonic growth in liquid, characterize biotechnologically relevant growth and biomass characteristics. UTEX 3222 outpaces other fast-growing model strains on a solid medium. It can double every 2.35 hours in a liquid medium and grows to high density (>31 g/L biomass dry weight) in batch culture, nearly double that of Synechococcus sp. PCC 11901, whose high-density growth was recently reported. In addition, UTEX 3222 sinks readily, settling more quickly than other fast-growing strains, suggesting favorable economics of harvesting UTEX 3222 biomass. These traits may make UTEX 3222 a compelling choice for marine carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and photosynthetic bioproduction from CO₂. Overall, we find that bio-prospecting in environments with naturally elevated CO₂ may uncover novel CO₂-metabolizing organisms with unique characteristics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The performance of solvent-based direct air capture across geospatial and temporal climate regimes

Liquid-solvent direct air capture (DAC) is a prominent approach for carbon dioxide removal but knowing where to site these systems is challenging because it requires considering a multitude of interrelated geospatial factors. Two of the most pressing factors are: (1) how should DAC be powered to provide the greatest net removal of CO 2 and (2) how does weather impact its performance?. To investigate these questions, this study develops a process-level model of a liquid-solvent DAC system and couples it to a 20-year dataset of temperature and humidity conditions at a ~9km resolution across the contiguous US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ASU’s DAC polymer-enhanced cyanobacterial bioproductivity (AUDACity)

ASU’s DAC polymer-enhanced cyanobacterial bioproductivity (AUDACity) project aims to demonstrate a novel, scalable method for removing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) directly from ambient air and delivering it to cyanobacterial cultures to produce commodity biofuel, mid-value protein for supplements, and high value phycocyanin (PC), a natural blue colorant (Figure A). This approach uses low-cost, reusable anion exchange polymers embedded in modular mesh packets, which capture CO 2 during drying cycles when exposed to ambient air, and release concentrated CO 2 into aqueous cultivation systems. The project addresses a critical challenge in energy research needed for developing sustainable, economically viable methods of Direct Air Capture (DAC) that can be integrated with bio-based systems for fuel and chemical production. AUDACity contributes to scientific understanding by integrating materials chemistry, cyanobacterial biology, and system engineering to create a distributed CO 2 delivery platform. Key insights have emerged around the design of biocompatible sorbents, optimization of CO 2 capture-release cycles, and durability of packet-based delivery systems under outdoor conditions. Notably, the team has synthesized and tested a range of polymer sorbents, identified mechanisms of material degradation and fouling, and advanced both lab- and pilot-scale cultivation systems to evaluate performance. From a technical and economic standpoint, AUDACity shows promise for achieving cost-effective CO 2 capture and delivery into aqueous media and biofuel production. Preliminary techno-economic analysis (TEA) indicates that the DAC system based on current performance can reach $\$$680/tonne CO 2 delivered into aqueous solution; with reasonable improvements to sorbent lifetime, sorbent capacity, reducing water uptake the approach could reach $\$$66/tonne by avoiding the need for energy-intensive sorbent regeneration and CO 2 compression, making it more feasible for decentralized deployment. With these costs for CO 2 and by extracting and selling high-value PC ($\$$50/kg) and mid-value protein supplement ($\$$6/kg), the remaining biomass can be hydrothermally treated into biofuel for $\$$2.50/gallon, and would support a small first-of-a-kind biorefinery capable of producing 500 barrels per day of biofuel. The project offers meaningful public benefits by advancing carbon removal technologies that are low-energy, modular, and adaptable to non-arable land and brackish water use. It aligns with national goals to develop advanced biotechnology and supports future pathways for bio-based fuels and products. By enabling direct coupling of CO 2 transfer into aqueous medium and biological carbon utilization, AUDACity lays the groundwork for effective algae cultivation without wasteful CO 2 delivery and is a promising and innovative solution for low-carbon fuel and bioproduct generation contributing to a vigorous bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Nonenergy Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS): Assessing Durability of Nongaseous Carbon Products Across Terrestrial Storage Fates

Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage, or BiCRS, pathways use plants or algae that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and store it underground or in long-lived products. While some BiCRS approaches generate an energy product, all BiCRS approaches generate a carbon product. A new subset of BiCRS approaches focus on the storage of these raw or converted carbon products for generation of carbon credits. However, the durability of these approaches is highly variable as carbon products vary widely in their “form” and the conditions of their “fate.” We organize our thinking about carbon products and their durability around these two primary axes. The durability of carbon product “forms” is mediated by chemical recalcitrance and ranges substantially across agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, woody biomass, and nongaseous products of thermochemical conversion (e.g., biochars and bio-oils). Meanwhile, terrestrial storage “fates” vary in the mechanism employed to stall decay, including surface storage, dry storage, shallow anoxic storage, and deep or geologic anoxic storage (or injection). Each mechanism has different implications for suitability with different feedstock forms as well as long-term risks. We present a framework for assessing durability of solid or liquid raw and conversion carbon products under terrestrial storage fates, highlighting knowns, unknowns, and research priorities moving forward.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Quantifying Climate Change Effects of Bioenergy and BECCS: Critical Considerations and Guidance on Methodology

Bioenergy is a critical element in many national and international climate change mitigation efforts, including as a carbon dioxide removal strategy combined with the capture and durable geological storage of flue gas emissions (BECCS). However, divergent results on the effectiveness of bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure are reported in the scientific literature. Climate impacts of bioenergy depend on case-specific factors, primarily biophysical features of the biomass production system, and the design and efficiency of conversion and capture processes. Estimates of climate impacts are also strongly affected by methodological choices and assumptions, and much of the divergence between studies derives from differences in the assumed alternate use of the land or feedstock, the alternate energy source and the system boundaries applied. We present a methodology to support robust estimates of the climate change effects of bioenergy systems, updating the standard methodology developed by the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Program on Bioenergy. We provide guidance on the key choices including the reference land use and energy system that bioenergy is assumed to displace, spatial and temporal system boundaries, co-product handling, climate forcers considered, metrics applied and time horizon of impact assessment. Researchers should consider the whole bioenergy system including all life cycle stages, and choose system boundaries, reference systems and treatment of co-products that are consistent with the intended application of the results. The assessment should be normalised to a functional unit that can be compared with other systems delivering an equivalent quantity of the same function. All significant climate forcers should be included, and climate effects should be quantified using appropriate impact assessment methods that distinguish the impact of time. Consistency in methodology and interpretation will facilitate comparison between studies of different bioenergy systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Which Plant Traits Increase Soil Carbon Sequestration? Empirical Evidence From a Long‐Term Poplar Genetic Diversity Trial

Plants play a key role in mediating soil response to global change, and breeding or engineering crops to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is a potential route to land-based carbon dioxide removal in agricultural systems. However, due to limited observational datasets plus shifting paradigms of SOC stabilization, it is unclear which plant traits are most important for enhancing different types of soil organic matter. Existing long-term common gardens of genetically diverse plant populations may provide an opportunity to evaluate biological controls on SOC, separate from environmental or management variability. Here we report on soil and root chemical data collected for 24 genotypes within a 13-year-old common garden in northwestern Oregon planted with a large natural variant population of Populus trichocarpa. Fractionating surface soil (0–15 cm) revealed substantial variation in stocks of mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM; 18–67 t C/ha) and particulate organic matter (POM; 2–22 t C/ha). Tree genotype explained 24% and 26% of the MAOM and POM stock variability, respectively, after controlling for background variability. We found minimal association between SOC concentration and either aboveground tree productivity or root biomass recalcitrance (C/N ratios and lignin content). In contrast, root elemental content appeared influential for MAOM-C concentration, which showed a strong positive association with root aluminum (Al) and a strong negative association with root boron (B) and magnesium (Mg). Furthermore, root concentrations of these elements were highly heritable (57%–78%) and not simply a reflection of background variation in soil elemental concentrations. We estimate that surface SOC stocks under these 24 genotypes have diverged at rates of up to 1.2–4.3 t C/ha/year. These results suggest that long-term genetic diversity trials have value for elucidating biological controls on soil organic matter dynamics, and that traits associated with root elemental content may be a useful target for enhancing biosequestration.

biomass recalcitrance↗

Replacing liquid fossil fuels and hydrocarbon chemical feedstocks with liquid biofuels from large-scale nuclear biorefineries

Liquid fossil fuels (1) enable transportation and (2) provide energy for mobile work platforms and (3) supply dispatchable energy to highly variable demand (seasonal heating and peak electricity). We describe a system to replace liquid fossil fuels with drop-in biofuels including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Because growing biomass removes carbon dioxide from the air, there is no net addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from burning biofuels. In addition, with proper management, biofuel systems can sequester large quantities of carbon as soil organic matter, improving soil fertility and providing other environmental services. In the United States liquid biofuels can potentially replace all liquid fossil fuels. The required system has two key features. First, the heat and hydrogen for conversion of biomass into high-quality liquid fuels is provided by external low-carbon energy sources--nuclear energy or fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration. Using external energy inputs can almost double the energy content of the liquid fuel per unit of biomass feedstock by fully converting the carbon in biomass into a hydrocarbon fuel. Second, competing effectively with fossil fuels requires very large biorefineries—the equivalent of a 250,000 barrel per day oil refinery. This requires commercializing methods for converting local biomass into high-density storable feedstocks that can be economically shipped to large-scale biorefineries.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

A review of in situ/operando studies of heterogeneous catalytic hydrogenation of CO 2 to methanol

Repurposing CO 2 into chemicals, one of the Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) strategies, still faces significant challenges in conversion and energy efficiency due to the lack of effective catalysts and processes. Fundamental understanding through in situ/operando investigations of the reaction mechanisms and catalyst structures is pivotal for developing the efficient catalysts. This paper reviews the past and recent in situ/operando studies of methanol synthesis from heterogeneous CO 2 hydrogenation over a few typical catalysts including Cu-based, oxide-based, and noble-metal-based catalysts. With the development of high-pressure reactors, in situ/operando IR, X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), X-ray diffraction (XRD), neutron diffraction and imaging have been used to reveal the surface intermediates and structures of working catalysts under CO 2 hydrogenation conditions. On the one hand, the combined operando techniques shed light on working mechanisms for some catalytic systems. On the other hand, due to the complexity of selective CO 2 hydrogenation reaction and limited sensitivity of current accessible operando techniques to the surface structure of catalysts, it is still murky about the exact nature of the active sites at the surface/interface and how different sites promote different reaction paths. Furthermore, it is concluded that new methodologies for differentiating signals from different sites, and the development of surface-sensitive techniques for high pressure reactions are needed for providing structural descriptors of highly active and selective CO 2 conversion catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Taking stock of nationally determined contributions: Continued ratcheting of ambition is critical to limit global warming to 1.5°C

We will discuss that as countries take stock of progress made in accomplishing their climate goals ahead of COP28 this year, it is increasingly apparent that countries must ratchet ambition in policy areas such as non-CO 2 gases and carbon dioxide removal, while halting deforestation to lead the globe on a path consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗