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DOE OSTI2021

Near and long-term perspectives on strategies to decarbonize China's heavy-duty trucks through 2050

China needs to drastically reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), a key emitter in the growing transport sector, in order to address energy security concerns and meet its climate targets. We address existing research gaps by modeling feasibility, applicability, and energy and emissions impacts of multiple decarbonization strategies at different points in time. China still relies heavily on coal power, so impacts of new HDT technologies depend on the timing of their introduction relative to progress toward non-fossil power. We use a bottom-up model to simulate HDT energy consumption and CO 2 emissions through 2050. Results show that beginning to deploy battery electric and fuel-cell HDTs as early as 2020 and 2035, respectively, could achieve significant and the largest CO 2 emissions reduction by 2050 with a decarbonized power sector. However, viable near-term strategies-improving efficiency and logistics, switching to liquefied natural gas-could halve HDTs' current diesel consumption and CO 2 emissions by 2050. Our results underscore the need for a mix of near- and long-term policy and technology options to decarbonize China's HDTs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Natural gas shortages during the “coal-to-gas” transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017

The Chinese “coal-to-gas” and “coal-to-electricity” strategies aim at reducing dispersed coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low-carbon fuels in northern China. Here, we show that on top of meteorological influences, the effective emission mitigation measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations of ~14% in Beijing and surrounding areas (the “2+26” pilot cities) in winter 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, where the dispersed coal control measures contributed ~60% of the total PM 2.5 reductions. However, the localized air quality improvement was accompanied by a contemporaneous~15% upsurge of PM 2.5 concentrations over large areas in southern China. We find that the pollution transfer that resulted from a shift in emissions was of a high likelihood caused by a natural gas shortage in the south due to the coal-to-gas transition in the north. The overall shortage of natural gas greatly jeopardized the air quality benefits of the coal-to-gas strategy in winter 2017 and reflects structural challenges and potential threats in China’s clean-energy transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Strategic Implications of the Evolving US-China Nuclear Balance

China is significantly expanding the size and sophistication of its nuclear forces. Over the summer of 2021, researchers using satellite imagery discovered three separate fields of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos under construction in the deserts of north-central China. If each silo is eventually equipped with a missile, the Chinese nuclear arsenal capable of striking the continental US could triple in size. Furthermore, the US government estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal could number 1000 warheads by 2030, with at least 200 deployed on long-range platforms.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anthropogenic aerosols prolong fog lifetime in China

Investigation of aerosol effects on fog with long-term measurements has generally focused on fog occurrence frequency and intensity; here we examine the effects on fog lifetime, fog formation, and fog dissipation. From analysis of 52 years (1960–2011) of data collected at 404 stations in China, it is found that fog lifetime exhibits a clear increasing trend with time, and the increased lifetime is mainly attributable to delayed fog dissipation. Increased aerosol levels and global warming affect fog lifetime in opposite ways; increased aerosol levels serve to prolong fog lifetime by primarily delaying fog dissipation, whereas warming decreases fog lifetime by primarily delaying fog formation. The overall aerosol effect on fog lifetime in China is shown to predominate, especially in the highly polluted region of Eastern China. The observational findings are confirmed by a suite of WRF-Chem simulations that reveal the influences of both increased aerosol levels and temperatures through a complex chain of interactions among microphysical, dynamical, thermodynamic, and radiative processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Clean Industry in China: A Techno-Economic Comparison of Electrified Heat Technologies, Barriers, and Policy Options

China’s manufacturing sector generates 61% of the country’s CO 2 emissions, nearly three-quarters of which is related to industrial process heating. To meet China’s climate targets and attain a zero-carbon industrial sector, decarbonizing these industrial heating processes is a necessity. If China’s electricity grid is similarly decarbonized, direct electrification is the most practical means of supplying this heat efficiently at the required scale.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Cinnamomum camphora coppice planting on soil fertility, microbial community structure and enzyme activity in subtropical China

Cinnamomum camphora ( C. camphora ) is a broad-leaved evergreen tree cultivated in subtropical China. Currently, the use of C. camphora clonal cuttings for coppice management has become popular. However, the effects of C. camphora coppice planting on soil abiotic and biotic variances remained unclear. In this study, we collected soil from three points in the seven-year C. camphora coppice planting land: under the tree canopy (P15), between trees (P50), and abandoned land (Control) to investigate the effects of C. camphora coppice planting on soil fertility, microbial community structure and enzyme activity. The results revealed that C. camphora coppice planting significantly increased soil fertility in the point under the tree canopy (P15) and point between trees (P50), and P15 had more significant effects than P50. Meanwhile, in P15 and P50, soil bacterial, fungal alpha-diversity were improved and microbial community structures were also changed. And the changes of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen promote the transformation of soil bacterial, fungal community structures, respectively. In addition, C. camphora coppice planting significantly ( p < 0.05) increased soil urease (UE), polyphenol oxidase, and peroxidase activities, while significantly decreased soil ACP activity. This study demonstrated that the C. camphora coppice planting could improve soil fertility in subtropical China, which promoted the transformation of soil microbial community from oligotrophs ( K -strategist) to copiotrophs ( r -strategist). Thus, this work can provide a theoretical basis for soil nutrient variation and productive management of C. camphora coppice plantation in subtropical China.

Sun, Luyuan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Epidemiological investigation of coccidiosis and associated risk factors in broiler chickens immunized with live anticoccidial vaccines in China

Coccidiosis is a costly intestinal disease of chickens caused by Eimeria species. This infection is associated with high mortality, reduced feed efficiency, and slowed body weight gain. The diagnosis and control of coccidiosis becomes challenging due to the fact that chickens can be infected by seven different Eimeria species and often occur mixed-species co-infections. Grasping the epidemiology of Eimeria species is crucial to estimate the efficiency of poultry management. This study aimed to explore the distribution of Eimeria species in broiler chickens in China after administering live anticoccidial vaccines. A total of 634 samples were obtained, and the survey results showed that the prevalence of Eimeria was 86.12% (546/634), and the most common species were E. acervulina (65.62%), E. necatrix (50.95%), E. mitis (50.79%), E. tenella (48.42%), and E. praecox (41.80%). Most samples indicated mixed-species infections (an average of 3.29 species per positive sample). Notably, 63.98% of samples contain 3 to 5 Eimeria species within a single fecal sample. The most prevalent combinations were E. acervulina – E. tenella (38.96%) and E. acervulina – E. necatrix (37.22%). Statistical analysis showed that flocks vaccinated with trivalent vaccines were significantly positive for E. necatrix in grower chickens (OR = 3.30, p < 0.05) compared with starter chickens, and tetravalent vaccinated flocks showed that starter chickens demonstrated a higher susceptibility to E. tenella – E. brunetti (OR = 2.03, p < 0.05) and E. acervulina – E. maxima (OR = 2.05, p < 0.05) compared with adult chickens. Geographically, in the case of tetravalent vaccine-immunized flocks, a substantial positive association was observed between E. necatrix infection rates and flocks from eastern (OR = 3.88, p < 0.001), central (OR = 2.65, p = 0.001), and southern China (OR = 3.17, p < 0.001) compared with southwestern China. This study also found a positive association between E. necatrix (OR = 1.64, p < 0.05), E. acervulina (OR = 1.59, p < 0.05), and E. praecox (OR = 1.81, p < 0.05) infection and coccidiosis occurrence compared with non-infected flocks in tetravalent vaccinated flocks. This molecular epidemiological investigation showed a high prevalence of Eimeria species in the field. The emergent species, E. brunetti and E. praecox , might be incorporated into the widely-used live vaccines in the future. These insights could be useful in refining coccidiosis control strategies in the poultry industry.

Liao, Shenquan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using Residential and Office Building Archetypes for Energy Efficiency Building Solutions in an Urban Scale: A China Case Study

Building energy consumption accounts for 36% of the overall energy end use worldwide and is growing rapidly as developing countries continue to urbanize. Understanding the energy use at urban scale will lay the foundation for identification of energy efficiency opportunities to be deployed at speed. China has almost half of global new constructions and plays an important role in building suitability. However, an open source national building energy consumption database is not available in China. To provide data support for building energy consumptions, this paper used a simulation method to develop an urban building energy consumption database for a pilot city in Wuhan, China. First, residential, small, and large office building archetype energy models were created in EnergyPlus to represent typical building energy consumption in Wuhan. The baseline reference model simulation results were further validated using survey data from the literature. Second, stochastic simulations were conducted to consider different design parameters and occupants’ energy usage intensity scenarios, such as thermal properties of the building envelope, lighting power density, equipment power density, HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) schedule, etc. A building energy consumption database was generated for typical building archetypes. Third, data-driven regression analysis was conducted to support quick building energy consumption prediction using key high- level building information inputs. Finally, a web-based urban energy platform and an interface were developed to support further third-party application development. The research is expected to provide fast energy efficiency building design solutions for urban planning, new constructions as well as building retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Biomass Resources and Emission Reduction Potential of Agricultural and Livestock Residues in Mainland China from 2013 to 2022

Controlling carbon emissions is a global goal, and China is actively implementing carbon reduction measures. As a major agricultural nation, China has considerable potential for developing agricultural residues as renewable and environmentally friendly biomass energy. In this study, we obtained data on crop yields, crop-to-grain ratios, and livestock excretion coefficients to calculate the biomass resources of agricultural and livestock residues in Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2022. Crop residue biomass resources showed a distribution pattern with higher levels in the north than in the south and the east than in the west. Henan and Heilongjiang provinces consistently had the highest resource levels, exceeding 35 million tons annually for 10 years. The biomass resources from livestock residues were relatively abundant in Sichuan, Henan, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia. Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Shandong, and Henan had the greatest potential for CO2 emission reductions, primarily located in regions abundant in biomass resources and with high traditional energy consumption levels. ArcGIS was used to apply natural break classification to categorize the potential for emission reductions from agricultural and livestock residues across China from 2013 to 2022 into five classes. Based on factors such as crop planting area and livestock numbers, the spatiotemporal distribution of factors influencing the quantity of biomass resources was examined using Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression. A tailored and integrated approach should be used for biomass, and the development of biomass energy should be promoted through policy support and technological innovation.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2022

North China Plain as a hot spot of ozone pollution exacerbated by extreme high temperatures

Abstract. A large population in China has been exposed to both severe ozone (O3) pollution and extreme heat under global warming. Here, the spatiotemporal characteristics of coupled extremes in surface O3 and heat (OPCs) over China are investigated using surface observations, a process-based chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), and multi-model simulations from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). North China Plain (NCP; 37–41∘ N; 114–120∘ E) is identified as a hot spot of OPCs, where more than half of the O3 pollution days are accompanied by high temperature extremes. OPCs over NCP exceeded 40 d during 2014–2019, exhibiting an increasing trend. Both O3 concentrations and temperatures are elevated during OPCs compared with O3 pollution days occurring individually (OPIs). Therefore, OPCs impose more severe health impacts to humans than OPIs, but the stronger health effects are mainly driven by the higher temperatures. GEOS-Chem simulations further reveal that enhanced chemical production resulting from hot and stable atmospheric conditions under anomalous weather patterns primarily contributes to the exacerbated O3 levels during OPCs. In the future, CMIP6 projections suggest increased occurrences of OPCs over NCP in the middle of this century, but by the end of this century, OPCs may decrease or increase depending on the pollutant emission scenarios. However, for all future scenarios, extreme high temperatures will play an increasingly important role in modulating O3 pollution in a warming climate.

Wang, Pinya (ORCID:0000000170347868)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM 2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions

Surface fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution can be enhanced by feedback processes induced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Many previous studies have reported enhanced PM 2.5 concentrations induced by ARIs and ACIs for episodic events in China. However, few studies have examined the changes in the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancements over a long period, though the anthropogenic emissions have changed substantially in the last decade. In this study, we quantify the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 changes for 2013–2021 under different meteorology and emission scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and we investigate the driving factors behind the changes. Our results show that, in January 2013, when China suffered from the worst PM 2.5 pollution, the PM 2.5 enhancement induced by ARIs in eastern China (5.59 µg m −3 ) was larger than that induced by ACIs (3.96 µg m −3 ). However, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement showed a significantly smaller decrease ratio (51 %) than the ARI-induced enhancement (75 %) for 2013–2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM 2.5 concentrations in January 2021. Our analyses suggest that the anthropogenic emission reductions played a key role in this shift. Owing to only anthropogenic emission reductions, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement decreased by 43 % in January, which was lower than the decrease ratio of the ARI-induced enhancement (57 %). The relative change in ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement in July was similar to the pattern observed in January, caused by anthropogenic emission reductions. The primary reason for this phenomenon is that the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 for 2013–2021 caused a disproportionately small decrease in the liquid water path (LWP) and an increase in the cloud effective radius (Re) under the condition of high PM 2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the surface solar radiation attenuation (and, hence, the boundary layer height reduction) caused by ACIs decreased slower than that caused by ARIs. Moreover, the lower decrease ratio of the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement was dominated by the lower decrease ratio of ACI-induced secondary PM 2.5 component enhancement, which was additionally caused by the smaller decrease ratio of the air temperature reduction and the relative humidity (RH) increase. Our findings indicate that, with the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 , the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement inevitably becomes more important. This needs to be considered in the formulation of control policies to meet the national PM 2.5 air quality standard.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1988

Archean crustal evolution of the northern North China Craton

The Archean granultie facies rocks of the North China (Sino-Korean) Craton mostly occur inside the northern boundary forming a unique and spectacular granulite belt trending roughly E-W from eastern Hebei, North China in the east to Mt. Daqinchan, western Inner Mongolia in the west, ranging about 1,000 km long. Over the years in the middle portion of this Archean high-grade metamorphic belt a stratigraphic unconformity between the khondalite rock assemblage and the medium in composition granulite assemblage in Datong-Xinghe area is determined. The geological structural properties of the North China Craton are discussed.

Qian, Xianglin↗

NASA NTRS1994

Satellite analysis of the severe 1987 forest fires in northern China and southeastern Siberia

Meteorological conditions, extremely conducive to fire development and spread in the spring of 1987, resulted in forest fires burning over extremely large areas in the boreal forest zone in northeastern China and the southeastern region of Siberia. The great China fire, one of the largest and most destructive forest fires in recent history, occurred during this period in the Heilongjiang Province of China. Satellite imagery is used to examine the development and areal distribution of 1987 forest fires in this region. Overall trace gas emissions to the atmosphere from these fires are determined using a satellite-derived estimate of area burned in combination with fuel consumption figures and carbon emission ratios for boreal forest fires.

Cahoon, Donald R, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Internal Wave Study in the South China Sea Using SAR

Recently, the internal wave distribution maps in the China Seas have been compiled from hundreds of ERS-1/2, RADARSAT, and Space Shuttle SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) images from 1993 to 1999. Based on internal wave distribution map, most of internal waves in the northeast part of South China Sea were propagating westward. The wave crest can be as long as 200 km with amplitude of 100 m due to strong current from the Kuroshio branching out into the South China Sea. Based on the observations from drilling rigs near DongSha Island by Amoco Production Co., the solitons may be generated in a 4 km wide channel between Batan and Sabtang islands in Luzon Strait. The proposed generation mechanism is similar to the lee wave formation from a shallow topography. Both depression and elevation internal waves have been observed in the same RADARSAT ScanSAR image on May 4, 1998 near DongSha Island. Furthermore, depression and elevation internal waves have also been observed by SAR at the same location on the shelf in April and June, 1993 (in different seasons) respectively. Numerical models have been used to interpret their generation mechanism and evolution processes. Based on the SAR images, near DongSha Island, the westward propagating huge internal solitons are often encountered and diffracted/broken by the coral reefs on the shelf. After passing the island, the diffracted waves will re-merge or interact with each other. It has been observed that after the nonlinear wave-wave interaction, the phase of wave packet is shifted and wavelength is also changed. Examples of mesoscale features observed in SAR images, such as fronts, raincells, bathymetry, ship wakes, and oil spills will be presented. Recent mooring measurements in April 1999 near Dongsha Island, future field test ASIAEX (Asian Seas International Acoustics Experiment) planned for April 2001, and some pretest survey data will be discussed in this paper.

Liu, Antony K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Structure and Evolution of an Oceanic Squall Line During South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding areas during May - June 1998. The primary goal of the experiment is to provide a better understanding of the key physical processes for the onset, maintenance and variability of the monsoon over the Southeast Asia and southern China leading to improved monsoon predictions. As the first comprehensive field experiment aiming on the SCS summer monsoon, the goals of the mesoscale program associated with the primary objective are: (1) to define the initiation, structure, evolution and dynamics of precipitation processes associated with the onset and mature phase of the SCS monsoon, and (2) to obtain quantitative rainfall estimates, vertical air motion and inferences on microphysical structure over a tropical oceanic site.

Wang, Jian-Jian↗

NASA NTRS1994

Satellite Analysis of the Severe 1987 Forest Fires in Northern China and Southeastern Siberia

Cahoon, Donald R., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Origin, Transport, and Vertical Distribution of Atmospheric Polluntants over the Northern Sourth China Sea During the 7-SEAS-Dongsha Experiment

During the spring of 2010, comprehensive in situ measurements were made for the first time on a small atoll (Dongsha Island) in the northern South China Sea (SCS), a key region of the 7-SEAS (the Seven South East Asian Studies) program. This paper focuses on characterizing the source origins, transport processes, and vertical distributions of the Asian continental outflows over the region, using measurements including mass concentration, optical properties, hygroscopicity, and vertical distribution of the aerosol particles, as well as the trace gas composition. Cluster analysis of backward trajectories classified 52% of the air masses arriving at ground level of Dongsha Island as having a continental origin, mainly from northern China to the northern SCS, passing the coastal area and being confined in the marine boundary layer (0-0.5 km). Compared to aerosols of oceanic origin, the fine mode continental aerosols have a higher concentration, extinction coefficient, and single-scattering albedo at 550 nm (i.e., 19 vs. 14 microg per cubic meter in PM(sub 2.5); 77 vs. 59 M per meter in beta(sub e); and 0.94 vs. 0.90 in omega, respectively). These aerosols have a higher hygroscopicity (f at 85% RH = 2.1) than those in the upwind inland regions, suggesting that the aerosols transported to the northern SCS were modified by the marine environment. In addition to the near-surface aerosol transport, a significant upper-layer (3-4 km) transport of biomass-burning aerosols was observed. Our results suggest that emissions from both China and Southeast Asia could have a significant impact on the aerosol loading and other aerosol properties over the SCS. Furthermore, the complex vertical distribution of aerosols-coinciding-with-clouds has implications for remote-sensing observations and aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions.

pollutants↗