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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

A Suite of High-Resolution Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Simulations in Support of the OCO-3 Snapshot Area Mapping (SAM) Mode Observation: PSU-WRF, CSU-OLAM and NASA GEOS

Cities and power plants are responsible more than 70% of GHG emissions. The emissions from the subnational localized sources need to be accurately quantified and properly managed in order to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goals. The accurate estimation of these emission is also crucial for assessing the capacity of natural sinks to uptake the carbon released into the atmosphere that ultimately defines our emission allowance for the 1.5 or 2.0 degree temperature goals. New data collected by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) Snapshot Area Mapping (SAM) observations should provide a tremendous new opportunity for us to study CO2 emissions from targeted large localized sources, such as cities, power plants and beyond. Since 2018 (prior to the OCO-3 launch), we have studied the observational strategies for the SAM mode observation in order to collect the useful data for estimating CO2 emissions from target sources. To maximize the benefit of the SAM mode observation data for quantifying CO2 emission, it is important to define how to observe the localized sources depending on the local environmental and emission specificities. We employ a suite of state-of-the-art CO2 modeling systems, such as PSU's WRF-CO2, CSU's OLAM and NASA's GEOS models. All of these CO2 modeling systems are prescribedwith the high-resolution fuel CO2 emission estimates from the ODIAC data product to achieve realistic urban CO2 variations. We focus on cities with established ground-based observation networks, such as Los Angeles, Indianapolis, and Paris. We have examined the urban emission signal detectability in response to the influence of local background conditions that can observed by the SAM and biospheric contributions that will be a new challenge for urban emission inverse estimation. Based on the results of our simulation experiments, we plan to propose city-specific observation strategies. Upon the availability of the OCO-3 data, we will attempt to estimate city emissions using inverse models. We also developed synthetic OCO-3 data using NASA's GEOS5 model, which should be useful to assess the utility of the OCO-3 data in combination with data collected by carbon satellites in other orbits, such as NASA's OCO-2 and Japanese GOSAT-1/2. The synthetic data also provide an opportunity to study the errors due to clouds and aerosols, which have been not fully studied in the past.

Oda, Tomohiro↗
NASA NTRS1987

Spacelab Life Sciences flight experiments: an integrated approach to the study of cardiovascular deconditioning and orthostatic hypotension

The microgravity environment of spaceflight produces rapid cardiovascular changes which are adaptive and appropriate in that setting, but are associated with significant deconditioning and orthostatic hypotension on return to Earth's gravity. The rapidity with which these space flight induced changes appear and disappear provides an ideal model for studying the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of deconditioning and orthostatic hypotension, regardless of etiology. Since significant deconditioning is seen after flights of very short duration, muscle atrophy due to inactivity plays, at most, a small role. These changes in circulatory control associated with cephalad fluid shifts, rather than inactivity per se, are probably more important factors. In order to test this hypothesis in a systematic way, a multidisciplinary approach which defines and integrates inputs and responses from a wide variety of circulatory sub-systems is required. The cardiovascular experiments selected for Spacelab Life Sciences flights 1 and 2 provide such an approach. Both human and animal models will be utilized. Pre- and post-flight characterization of the payload crew includes determination of maximal exercise capacity (bicycle ergometry), orthostatic tolerance (lower body negative pressure), alpha and beta adrenergic sensitivity (isoproterenol and phenylephrine infusions), baroreflex sensitivity (ECG-gated, stepwise changes in carotid artery transmural pressure with a pneumatic neck collar), and responses to a 24 h period of 5 deg head-down tilt. Measurements of cardiac output (CO2 and C2H2 rebreathing), cardiac chamber dimensions (phased-array 2-dimensional echocardiography), direct central venous pressure, leg volume (Thornton sock), limb blood flow and venous compliance (occlusion plethysmography), blood and plasma volumes, renal plasma flow and glomerular filtration rates, and various hormonal levels including catecholamines and atrial natriuretic factor will also be obtained. The central venous catheter will be inserted immediately pre-launch and monitored with heart rate and blood pressure in-flight until cardiac output, respiratory gas exchange and quantitative 2D echocardiography measurements can be performed. In-flight hemodynamic measurements will be repeated at rest and during submaximal exercise daily and also during maximal exercise midway through the flight to document the timecourse and extent of cardiovascular changes in the payload crew. Parallel studies are planned for the animals. In addition to measurements of right atrial and aortic pressures and cardiac output, a dorsal micro-circulatory chamber will allow determinations of changes in capillary and venular architecture and function in six of the rats. The techniques and findings from many of the SLS-1 and 2 supporting studies have already yielded significant information about circulatory regulation in patients with both hypo- and hypertension. The flight experiments themselves will provide new data to test the validity of both animal and human models currently used for simulating the fluid shifts of a micro-gravity environment. The development of effective countermeasures, not only for short and long duration space travellers, but also for Earth-bound medical patients can then be physiologically based on experimental data rather than anecdote.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2011

Combustor Computations for CO2-Neutral Aviation

Knowing the pure component C(sub p)(sup 0) or mixture C(sub p) (sup 0) as computed by a flexible code such as NIST-STRAPP or McBride-Gordon, one can, within reasonable accuracy, determine the thermophysical properties necessary to predict the combustion characteristics when there are no tabulated or computed data for those fluid mixtures 3or limited results for lower temperatures. (Note: C(sub p) (sup 0) is molar heat capacity at constant pressure.) The method can be used in the determination of synthetic and biological fuels and blends using the NIST code to compute the C(sub p) (sup 0) of the mixture. In this work, the values of the heat capacity were set at zero pressure, which provided the basis for integration to determine the required combustor properties from the injector to the combustor exit plane. The McBride-Gordon code was used to determine the heat capacity at zero pressure over a wide range of temperatures (room to 6,000 K). The selected fluids were Jet-A, 224TMP (octane), and C12. It was found that each heat capacity loci were form-similar. It was then determined that the results [near 400 to 3,000 K] could be represented to within acceptable engineering accuracy with the simplified equation C(sub p) (sup 0) = A/T + B, where A and B are fluid-dependent constants and T is temperature (K).

Hendricks, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Exploration of a Mild Hybrid Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Concept

NASA has performed in-depth research and analysis into hybrid-electric aircraft concepts featuring high levels of electrification. Many of these concepts were found to be infeasible, whereas feasible designs were significantly heavier and more costly compared to conventional concepts. This study presents the development and analysis of an alternative mild hybrid concept that uses relatively low levels of stored electric energy applied strategically throughout the mission. The team researched several mild hybrid technologies, developed integrated aircraft models, and then evaluated the effects of these technologies on vehicle level performance metrics. Technologies explored in this study include the Turbine Electrified Energy Management system, electric taxi, electric climb assist, and replacing the auxiliary power unit with on-board electric energy storage. Key enabling technologies were energy storage devices that prioritized high power output over energy capacity and integrating electric motors with the shafts of the gas turbine engines. Significant performance improvements were observed when applying multiple technologies separately and in combination, with the most promising configuration incorporating all of them at once. Results for the mild hybrid configuration indicate an 8.2% reduction in block fuel, a 7.7% reduction in equivalent CO2 emissions, and a 3.5% increase in gross takeoff weight compared to a conventional baseline. Results of a cost analysis suggest the mild hybrid slightly reduces direct operating cost plus interest, which demonstrates that aircraft emissions can be significantly reduced without the cost increases associated with highly electrified concepts.

Turbine Electrified Energy Managment↗
NASA NTRS2014

The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols

Climate change is expected to alter a multitude of factors important to agricultural systems, including pests, diseases, weeds, extreme climate events, water resources, soil degradation, and socio-economic pressures. Changes to carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water (CTW) will be the primary drivers of change in crop growth and agricultural systems. Therefore, establishing the CTW-change sensitivity of crop yields is an urgent research need and warrants diverse methods of investigation. Crop models provide a biophysical, process-based tool to investigate crop responses across varying environmental conditions and farm management techniques, and have been applied in climate impact assessment by using a variety of methods (White et al., 2011, and references therein). However, there is a significant amount of divergence between various crop models' responses to CTW changes (Rotter et al., 2011). While the application of a site-based crop model is relatively simple, the coordination of such agricultural impact assessments on larger scales requires consistent and timely contributions from a large number of crop modelers, each time a new global climate model (GCM) scenario or downscaling technique is created. A coordinated, global effort to rapidly examine CTW sensitivity across multiple crops, crop models, and sites is needed to aid model development and enhance the assessment of climate impacts (Deser et al., 2012). To fulfill this need, the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) (Ruane et al., 2014) was initiated within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013). The submitted results from C3MP Phase 1 (February 15, 2013-December 31, 2013) are currently being analyzed. This chapter serves to present and update the C3MP protocols, discuss the initial participation and general findings, comment on needed adjustments, and describe continued and future development. AgMIP aims to improve substantially the climate, crop, and economic simulation tools that are used to characterize the agricultural sector, to assess future world food security under changing climate conditions, and to enhance adaptation capacity both globally and regionally. To understand better and improve the modeled crop responses, AgMIP has conducted detailed crop model intercomparisons at closely observed field sites for wheat (Asseng et al., 2013), rice (Li et al., in review), maize (Bassu et al., 2014), and sugarcane (Singels et al., 2013). A coordinated modeling exercise was one of the original motivations for AgMIP, and C3MP provides rapid estimation of crop responses to CO2, water, and temperature (CTW) changes, adding dimension and insight into the crop model intercomparisons, while facilitating interactions within the global community of modelers. C3MP also contributes a fast-track, multi-model climate sensitivity assessment for the AgMIP climate and crop modeling teams on Research Track 2 (Fig. 1), which seeks to understand the impact of projected climatic changes on crop production and food security (Rosenzweig et al., 2013; Ruane et al., 2014).

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Multi-Scale Sampling Strategy for Detecting Physiologically Significant Signals in AVIRIS Imagery

Models of photosynthetic production at ecosystem and global scales require multiple input parameters specifying physical and physiological surface features. While certain physical parameters (e.g., absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) can be derived from current satellite sensors, other physiologically relevant measures (e.g., vegetation type, water status, carboxylation capacity, or photosynthetic light-use efficiency), are not generally directly available from current satellite sensors at the appropriate geographic scale. Consequently, many model parameters must be assumed or derived from independent sources, often at an inappropriate scale. An abundance of ecophysiological studies at the leaf and canopy scales suggests strong physiological control of vegetation-atmosphere CO2 and water vapor fluxes, particularly in evergreen vegetation subjected to diurnal or seasonal stresses. For example hot, dry conditions can lead to stomatal closure, and associated "downregulation" of photosynthetic biochemical processes, a phenomenon often manifested as a "midday photosynthetic depression". A recent study with the revised simple biosphere (SiB2) model demonstrated that photosynthetic downregulation can significantly impact global climate. However, at the global scale, the exact significance of downregulation remains unclear, largely because appropriate physiological measures are generally unavailable at this scale. Clearly, there is a need to develop reliable ways of extracting physiologically relevant information from remote sensing. Narrow-band spectrometers offer many opportunities for deriving physiological parameters needed for ecosystem and global scale photosynthetic models. Experimental studies on the ground at the leaf- to stand-scale have indicated that several narrow-band features can be used to detect plant physiological status. One physiological signal is caused by xanthophyll cycle pigment activity, and is often expressed as the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI). Because the xanthophyll cycle pigments are photoregulatory pigments closely linked to photosynthetic function, this index can be used to derive relative photosynthetic rates. An additional signal with physiological significance is the 970 nm water absorption band, which provides a measure of liquid water content. This feature has been quantified both using a simple 2-band ratio (900/970 nm, here referred to as the "Water Band Index" or WBI;), and using the "continuum removal" method. Current atmospheric correction methods for AVIRIS imagery also obtain quantitative expressions of surface liquid water absorption based on the 970 nm water band and may be comparable to ground-based estimates of water content using this feature. However, physiological interpretations of both the PRI and the WBI are best understood at the leaf and canopy scales, where complications of atmospheric interference and complex stand and landscape features can be minimized, and where experimental manipulations can be readily applied. Currently it is not known whether these physiological indices can be used to derive meaningful physiological information from AVIRIS imagery. In addition to the problem of atmospheric interference, another challenge is that any simple physiological index can be confounded by multiple factors unrelated to physiology, and this problem can become more severe at progressively larger spatial scales. For example, previous work has suggested that both the PRI and the WBI, are strongly correlated with other optical measures of canopy structure (e.g., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index or green vegetation fraction), indicating a confounding effect of structure on physiological signals at the larger, landscape scale. Furthermore, the normal operating mode of most imaging spectrometers does not allow simultaneous, ground truthing at a level of detail needed for physiological sampling. Additionally, manipulative experiments of physiology are difficult to apply at a geographic scale suitable for comparison with remote imagery, which often works at spatial scales that are several orders of magnitude larger than those typically used for physiological studies. These limitations require the consideration of alternative approaches to validating physiological information derived from AVIRIS data. In this report, we present a multi-scale sampling approach to detecting physiologically significant signals in narrow-band spectra. This approach explores the multi-dimensional data space provided by narrow-band spectrometry, and combines AVIRIS imagery at a large scale, with ground spectral sampling at an intermediate scale, and detailed ecophysiological measurements at a fine scale, to examine seasonally and spatially changing relationships between multiple structural and physiological variables. Examples of this approach are provided by simultaneous sampling of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an index of fractional PAR interception and green vegetation cover, the Water Band Index (WBI, an index of liquid water absorption, and the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI, an index of xanthophyll cycle pigment activity and photosynthetic light-use efficiency. By directly linking changing optical properties sampled on the ground with measurable physiological states, we hope to develop a basis for interpreting similar signals in AVIRIS imagery.

Gamon, John A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Interstellar ice

The 3250/cm 'ice' band observed in absorption and polarization in interstellar spectra is studied in the laboratory in low-temperature solid mixtures of H2O and other molecules. General empirical rules are derived which relate the shape and relative intensity of the H2O infrared absorptions to the degree of H2O dilution and hydrogen-bonding capacity of the dilutant. The chemical composition of mantles accreting on interstellar grains inside dense (1000-100,000/cu cm) molecular clouds has been calculated numerically. The reaction scheme comprises gas-phase as well as grain surface reactions. The results show that in most circumstances grain mantles consist of the molecules H2O, H2CO, NH3, N2, O2, CO, and CO2. The expected infrared characteristics of the calculated grain mantles are discussed with an emphasis on the observed 3250/cm 'ice' band. Grain mantles accreted at a density of about 10,000/cu cm contain large concentrations of H2O (about 60 percent) and produce a broad 3250/cm 'ice' band.

Tielens, A. G. G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Biogeochemical Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO2 on Terrestrial and Ocean Systems

Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) has decreased seawater pH at long-term observing stations around the world, including in the open ocean north of Oahu, Hawaii, near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Maine shore, and on Gray's Reef in the southeastern United States. This ocean acidification process has already affected some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes, and further effects are likely. While atmospheric CO rises at approximately the same rate all over the globe, its non-climate effects on land vary depending on climate and dominant species. In terrestrial ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO concentrations are expected to increase plant photosynthesis, growth, and water-use efficiency, though these effects are reduced when nutrients, drought or other factors limit plant growth. Rising CO would likely change carbon storage and influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, but concomitant effects on vegetation composition and nutrient feedbacks are challenging to predict, making decadal forecasts uncertain. Consequences of rising atmospheric CO are expected to include difficult-to-predict changes in the ecosystem services that terrestrial and ocean systems provide to humans. For instance, ocean acidification resulting from rising CO has decreased the supply of larvae that sustains commercial shellfish production in the northwestern United States. In addition, CO fertilization (increases) plus warming (decreases) are changing terrestrial crop yields. Continued persistence of uptake of carbon by the land and ocean is uncertain. Climate and environmental change create complex feedbacks to the carbon cycle and it is not clear how feedbacks modulate future effects of rising CO on carbon sinks. These are several mechanisms that could reduce future sink capacity.

Biogeochemical↗
NASA NTRS1988

Maturity of the Bosch CO2 reduction technology for Space Station application

The Bosch process, which catalytically reduces CO2 with H2 to solid carbon and water, is a promising technique for the reduction of the CO2 removed from the Space Station atmosphere and the subsequent water formation for O2 recovery. A Bosch engineering subsystem prototype CO2 reduction unit was developed to demonstrate the feasibility of the Bosch process as a viable technology for Space Station application. A man-rated prototype unit is then described as part of the ECLSS Technology Demonstrator Program. The goal was to develop a Bosch subsystem that not only meets the performance requirements of two 60 person-day carbon cartridge capacities, but also satisfies inherent man-rated requirements such as offgassing characteristics, fail-safe operation, and ease of maintainability. It is concluded that the technology is at a state of maturity directly applicable to flight status for the NASA Space Station program.

Wagner, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Alveolar ventilation to perfusion heterogeneity and diffusion impairment in a mathematical model of gas exchange

This study describes a two-compartment model of pulmonary gas exchange in which alveolar ventilation to perfusion (VA/Q) heterogeneity and impairment of pulmonary diffusing capacity (D) are simultaneously taken into account. The mathematical model uses as input data measurements usually obtained in the lung function laboratory. It consists of two compartments and an anatomical shunt. Each compartment receives fractions of alveolar ventilation and blood flow. Mass balance equations and integration of Fick's law of diffusion are used to compute alveolar and blood O2 and CO2 values compatible with input O2 uptake and CO2 elimination. Two applications are presented. The first is a method to partition O2 and CO2 alveolar-arterial gradients into VA/Q and D components. The technique is evaluated in data of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The second is a theoretical analysis of the effects of blood flow variation in alveolar and blood O2 partial pressures. The results show the importance of simultaneous consideration of D to estimate VA/Q heterogeneity in patients with diffusion impairment. This factor plays an increasing role in gas alveolar-arterial gradients as severity of COPD increases. Association of VA/Q heterogeneity and D may produce an increase of O2 arterial pressure with decreasing QT which would not be observed if only D were considered. We conclude that the presented computer model is a useful tool for description and interpretation of data from COPD patients and for performing theoretical analysis of variables involved in the gas exchange process.

NASA Discipline Environmental Health↗
NASA NTRS1991

Combined fluorescence, reflectance, and ground measurements of a stressed Norway spruce forest for forest damage assessment

The detection and monitoring of stress and damage in forested areas is of utmost importance to forest managers for planning purposes. Remote sensing are the most suitable means to obtain this information. This requires that remote sensing data employed in a forest survey be properly chosen and utilized for their ability to measure canopy spectral features directly related to key tree and canopy properties that are indicators of forest health and vitality. Plant reflectance in the visible to short wave IR regions (400 to 2500 nm) provides information on its biochemical, biophysical, and morphological make up, whereas plant fluorescence in the 400 to 750 nm region is more indicative of the capacity and functioning of its photosynthetic apparatus. A measure of both these spectral properties can be used to provide an accurate assessment of stress and damage within the forest canopy. Foliar chlorophyll and nitrogen are essential biochemical constituents required for the proper functioning and maintenance of a plant's biological processes. Chlorophyll-a is the prime reactive center for photosynthesis, by which a plant converts CO2 and H2O into necessary plant products. Nitrogen forms an important component of the amino-acids, enzymes, proteins, alkaloids, and cyanogenic compounds that make up a plant, including its pigments. Both chlorophyll and nitrogen have characteristic absorption features in the visible to short wave IR region. By measuring the wavelength position and depth of these features and the fluorescence response of the foliage, the health and vitality of a canopy can be ascertained. Examples for a stressed Norway spruce forest in south-eastern Austria are presented.

Banninger, C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Of Metabolic Heat Regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) Subassembly For Prototype Design

This paper describes modeling methods for the three core components of a Metabolic heat regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) subassembly: a sorbent bed, a sublimation (cooling) heat exchanger (SHX), and a condensing icing (warming) heat exchanger (CIHX). The primary function of the MTSA, removing carbon dioxide from a space suit Portable Life Support System (PLSS) ventilation loop, is performed via the sorbent bed. The CIHX is used to heat the sorbent bed for desorption and to remove moisture from the ventilation loop while the SHX is alternately employed to cool the sorbent bed via sublimation of a spray of water at low pressure to prepare the reconditioned bed for the next cycle. This paper describes subsystem heat a mass transfer modeling methodologies relevant to the description of the MTSA subassembly in Thermal Desktop and SINDA/FLUINT. Several areas of particular modeling interest are discussed. In the sorbent bed, capture of the translating carbon dioxide (CO2) front and associated local energy and mass balance in both adsorbing and desorbing modes is covered. The CIHX poses particular challenges for modeling in SINDA/FLUINT as accounting for solids states in fluid submodels are not a native capability. Methods for capturing phase change and latent heat of ice as well as the transport properties across a layer of low density accreted frost are developed. This extended modeling capacity is applicable to temperatures greater than 258 K. To extend applicability to the minimum device temperature of 235 K, a method for a mapped transformation of temperatures from below the limit temperatures to some value above is given along with descriptions for associated material property transformations and the resulting impacts to total heat and mass transfer. Similar considerations are given for the SHX along with functional relationships for areal sublimation rates as limited by flow mechanics in t1he outlet duct.

Bower, Chad E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

System Modeling of Metabolic Heat Regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) Subassembly for Prototype Design

This paper describes modeling methods for the three core components of a Metabolic heat regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) subassembly: the sorbent bed, a sublimation (cooling) heat exchanger (SHX), and a condensing icing (warming) heat exchanger (CIHX). The primary function of the MTSA, removing carbon dioxide from a ventilation loop, is performed via the sorbent bed. The CIHX is used to heat the sorbent bed for desorption and to remove moisture from the ventilation loop while the SHX is alternately employed to cool the sorbent bed via sublimation of a spray of water at low pressure to prepare the reconditioned bed for the next cycle. This paper describes a system level model of the MTSA as developed in Thermal Desktop and SINDA/FLUINT including assumptions on geometry and physical phenomena, modeling methodology and relevant pa ra mete rizatio ns. Several areas of particular modeling interest are discussed. In the sorbent bed, capture of the translating CO2 saturation front and associated local energy and mass balance in both adsorbing and desorbing modes is covered. The CIHX poses particular challenges for modeling in SINDA/FLUINT as accounting for solids states in fluid submodels are not a native capability. Methods for capturing phase change and latent heat of ice as well as the transport properties across a layer of low density accreted frost are developed. This extended modeling capacity is applicable to temperatures greater than 258 K. To extend applicability to the minimum device temperature of 235 K, a method for a mapped transformation of temperatures from below the limit temperatures to some value above is given along with descriptions for associated material property transformations and the resulting impacts to total heat and mass transfer. Similar considerations are shown for the SHX along with assumptions for flow mechanics and resulting model methods for sublimation in a flow.

Bower, Chad↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Question of Future Droughts in a CO2-Warmed World

Increased droughts are to be expected in a warmer world, and so are increased floods. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and evaporate more water from the surface. Thus, when it is not raining, available soil water should be reduced. When it is raining, it could very well rain harder. Most researchers agree then that a warmer world will have greater hydrologic extremes. In addition, there is a basic imbalance that develops as climate warms, between the loss of moisture from the soil by evaporation and replenishment via precipitation. The land has a smaller heat capacity than the ocean, so it should warm faster. Evaporation from the land proceeds at the rate of its warming, while precipitation derives primarily from evaporation at the ocean surface. As the latter is increasing more slowly, in a warmer world, precipitation will not increase as rapidly as evaporation due to the fact that the oceans warm more slowly than the land surface (evaporation over the ocean is slower than over the land). Hence, more droughts are anticipated in a warmer world, but the specific location of such droughts is somewhat uncertain. To address the question of where droughts are likely to occur, one first needs to have a reasonable sense of what the future magnitude of warming will be, and what the latitudinal distribution of warming will be. For example, the greater the warming at high latitudes relative to low latitudes, the more likely there will be increased drought over the U.S. in summer. In contrast, substantial tropical warming could give us El Nino-like precipitation, with intensified flooding along the southern tier of the U.S. All of these conditions are likely to intensify as the global temperature rises.

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS1978

Closed cycle electric discharge laser design investigation

Closed cycle CO2 and CO electric discharge lasers were studied. An analytical investigation assessed scale-up parameters and design features for CO2, closed cycle, continuous wave, unstable resonator, electric discharge lasing systems operating in space and airborne environments. A space based CO system was also examined. The program objectives were the conceptual designs of six CO2 systems and one CO system. Three airborne CO2 designs, with one, five, and ten megawatt outputs, were produced. These designs were based upon five minute run times. Three space based CO2 designs, with the same output levels, were also produced, but based upon one year run times. In addition, a conceptual design for a one megawatt space based CO laser system was also produced. These designs include the flow loop, compressor, and heat exchanger, as well as the laser cavity itself. The designs resulted in a laser loop weight for the space based five megawatt system that is within the space shuttle capacity. For the one megawatt systems, the estimated weight of the entire system including laser loop, solar power generator, and heat radiator is less than the shuttle capacity.

Baily, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change andCO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

Arneth, A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The doubled CO2 climate - Impact of the sea surface temperature gradient

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM of Hansen et al. (1983) was run, with 4 deg x 5 deg resolution, with doubled CO2 and two sets of sea surface temperature gradient distributions. One set was derived from the equilibrium doubled CO2 run of the 8 deg x 10 deg GISS GCM, with minimal high latitude amplification. The other set resembled closely the GFDL model results, with greater amplification. Both experiments had the same global mean surface air temperature change. The two experiments were often found to produce substantially different climate characteristics. With reduced high latitude amplification (set one), and thus, more equatorial warming, there was a greater increase in specific humidity and the greenhouse capacity of the atmosphere, resulting in a warmer atmosphere in general. Features such as the low-latitude precipitation, Hadley cell intensity, jet stream magnitude, and atmospheric energy transports all increased in comparison with the control run. In contrast, these features all decreased in the experiment with greater high latitude amplification (set two).

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS2018

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗