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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2008

Observations and Modeling of Composition of Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTILS): Isentropic Mixing Events and Morphology of HNO3 as Observed by HIRDLS and Comparison with Results from Global Modeling Initiative

isentropic exchange of air masses between the tropical upper troposphere and mid-latitude lowermost stratosphere (the so-called "middle world") is an important pathway for stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. A seasonal, global view of this process has been difficult to obtain, in part due to the lack of the vertical resolution in satellite observations needed to capture the laminar character of these events. Ozone observations at a resolution of about 1 km from the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) on NASA's Aura satellite show instances of these intrusions. Such intrusions should also be observable in HN03 observations; however, the abundances of nitric acid could be additionally controlled by chemical processes or incorporation and removal into ice clouds. We present a systematic examination of the HIRDLS data on O3 and HNO3 to determine the seasonal and spatial characteristics of the distribution of isentropic intrusions. At the same time, we compare the observed distributions with those calculated by the Global Modeling Initiative combined tropospheric-stratospheric model, which has a vertical resolution of about I km. This Chemical Transport Model (CTM) is driven by meteorological fields obtained from the GEOS-4 system of NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), for the Aura time period, at a vertical resolution of about 1 km. Such comparison brings out the successes and limitations of the model in representing isentropic stratospheric-tropospheric exchange, and the different processes controlling HNO3 in the UTAS.

Rodriquez, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effects of the 2006 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Carbon Monoxide: Implications for Dynamics and Biomass Burning

We have studied the effects of the 2006 El Nino on tropospheric O3 and CO at tropical and sub-tropical latitudes measured from the OMI and MLS instruments on the Aura satellite. The 2006 El Nino-induced drought allowed forest fires set to clear land to burn out of control during October and November in the Indonesian region. The effects of these fires are clearly seen in the enhancement of GO concentration measured from the MLS instrument. We have used a global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport (GMI CTM) to quantify the relative irrrportance of biomass burning and large scale transport: in producing observed changes in tropospheric O3 and CO . The model results show that during October and November both biomass burning and meteorological changes contributed almost equally to the observed increase in tropospheric O3 in the Indonesian region. The biomass component was 4-6 DU but it was limited to the Indonesian region where the fires were most intense, The dynamical component was 4-8 DU but it covered a much larger area in the Indian Ocean extending from South East Asia in the north to western Australia in the south. By December 2006, the effect of biomass taming was reduced to zero and the obsemed changes in tropospheric O3 were mostly due to dynamical effects. The model results show an increase of 2-3% in the global burden of tropospheric ozone. In comparison, the global burdean of CO increased by 8-12%.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Sensitivity of Photolysis Frequencies and Key Tropospheric Oxidants in a Global Model to Cloud Vertical Distributions and Optical Properties

As a follow-up study to our recent assessment of the radiative effects of clouds on tropospheric chemistry, this paper presents an analysis of the sensitivity of such effects to cloud vertical distributions and optical properties in a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS4-Chem CTM). GEOS-Chem was driven with a series of meteorological archives (GEOS1-STRAT, GEOS-3 and GEOS-4) generated by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation system, which have significantly different cloud optical depths (CODs) and vertical distributions. Clouds in GEOS1-STRAT and GEOS-3 have more similar vertical distributions while those in GEOS-4 are optically much thinner in the tropical upper troposphere. We find that the radiative impact of clouds on global photolysis frequencies and hydroxyl radical (OH) is more sensitive to the vertical distribution of clouds than to the magnitude of column CODs. Model simulations with each of the three cloud distributions all show that the change in the global burden of O3 due to clouds is less than 5%. Model perturbation experiments with GEOS-3, where the magnitude of 3-D CODs are progressively varied by -100% to 100%, predict only modest changes (<5%) in global mean OH concentrations. J(O1D), J(NO2) and OH concentrations show the strongest sensitivity for small CODs and become insensitive at large CODs due to saturation effects. Caution should be exercised not to use in photochemical models a value for cloud single scattering albedo lower than about 0.999 in order to be consistent with the current knowledge of cloud absorption at the UV wavelength. Our results have important implications for model intercomparisons and climate feedback on tropospheric photochemistry.

Liu, Hongyu↗
NASA NTRS2011

Inferring Absorbing Organic Carbon Content from AERONET Data

Black carbon, light-absorbing organic carbon (often called brown carbon) and mineral dust are the major light-absorbing aerosols. Currently the sources and formation of brown carbon aerosol in particular are not well understood. In this study we estimated globally the amount of light absorbing organic carbon and black carbon from AERONET measurements. We find that the columnar absorbing organic carbon (brown carbon) levels in biomass burning regions of South-America and Africa are relatively high (about 15-20 magnesium per square meters during biomass burning season), while the concentrations are significantly lower in urban areas in US and Europe. However, we estimated significant absorbing organic carbon amounts from the data of megacities of newly industrialized countries, particularly in India and China, showing also clear seasonality with peak values up to 30-35 magnesium per square meters during the coldest season, likely caused by the coal and biofuel burning used for heating. We also compared our retrievals with the modeled organic carbon by global Oslo CTM for several sites. Model values are higher in biomass burning regions than AERONET-based retrievals, while opposite is true in urban areas in India and China.

Arola, A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observational Diagnoses of Extratropical Ozone STE During the Aura Era

The transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the extratropical troposphere is an important boundary condition to tropospheric chemistry. However, previous direct estimates from models and indirect estimates from observations have poorly constrained the magnitude of ozone stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). In this study we provide a direct diagnosis of the extratropical ozone STE using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on Aura and output of the MERRA reanalysis over the time period from 2005 to the present. We find that the mean annual STE is about 275 Tg/yr and 205 Tg/yr in the NH and SH, respectively. The interannual variability of the magnitude is about twice as great in the NH than the SH. We find that this variability is dominated by the seasonal variability during the late winter and spring. A comparison of the ozone flux to the mass flux reveals that there is not a simple relationship between the two quantities. This presentation will also examine the magnitude and distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere relative to the years of maximum and minimum ozone STE. Finally, we will examine any possible signature of increased ozone STE in the troposphere using sonde and tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) data, and output from the Global Modeling Initiative Chemistry Transport Model (GMI CTM).

Olsen, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tropospheric Bromine Chemistry: Implications for Present and Pre-industrial Ozone and Mercury

We present a new model for the global tropospheric chemistry of inorganic bromine (Bry) coupled to oxidant-aerosol chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). Sources of tropospheric Bry include debromination of sea-salt aerosol, photolysis and oxidation of short-lived bromocarbons, and transport from the stratosphere. Comparison to a GOME-2 satellite climatology of tropospheric BrO columns shows that the model can reproduce the observed increase of BrO with latitude, the northern mid-latitudes maximum in winter, and the Arctic maximum in spring. This successful simulation is contingent on the HOBr + HBr reaction taking place in aqueous aerosols and ice clouds. Bromine chemistry in the model decreases tropospheric ozone mixing ratios by <1-8 nmol/mol (6.5% globally), with the largest effects in the northern extratropics in spring. The global mean tropospheric OH concentration decreases by 4 %. Inclusion of bromine chemistry improves the ability of global models (GEOS-Chem and p-TOMCAT) to simulate observed 19th-century ozone and its seasonality. Bromine effects on tropospheric ozone are comparable in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres so that estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are minimally affected. Br atom concentrations are 40% higher in the pre-industrial atmosphere due to lower ozone, which would decrease by a factor of 2 the atmospheric lifetime of elemental mercury against oxidation by Br. This suggests that historical anthropogenic mercury emissions may have mostly deposited to northern mid-latitudes, enriching the corresponding surface reservoirs. The persistent rise in background surface ozone at northern mid-latitudes during the past decades could possibly contribute to the observations of elevated mercury in subsurface waters of the North Atlantic.

bromine↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Ozone Precursor Emissions from Four World Regions on Tropospheric Composition and Radiative Climate Forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO4 (sup 2-)). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO4 (sup 2-) and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean plus or minus 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 plus or minus 0.6 to 1.7 2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 plus or minus 2 mWm(sup -2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 plus or minus 0.2 to 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1) and CO emissions (-0.13 plus or minus 0.02 to -0.15 plus or minus 0.02 mWm(sup-2)/Tg CO yr(sup-1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to- 5.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(sup -2)/ Tg CO yr(sup -1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO4 (sup -2), regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO4 2 responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 plus or minus 2.6 to -1.9 plus or minus 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 plus or minus 1.2 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 plus or minus 0.5 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(sub 100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 plus or minus 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 plus or minus 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 plus or minus 25.9 to 1.9 plus or minus 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 plus or minus 1.7 to 8.3 plus or minus 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 plus or minus 0.4 to 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(sub 100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2014

Fifteen-Year Global Time Series of Satellite-Derived Fine Particulate Matter

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading environmental risk factor for premature mortality. We use aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from two satellite instruments, MISR and SeaWiFS, to produce a unified 15-year global time series (1998−2012) of ground-level PM2.5 concentration at a resolution of 1deg x 1deg. The GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) is used to relate each individual AOD retrieval to ground-level PM2.5. Four broad areas showing significant, spatially coherent, annual trends are examined in detail: the Eastern U.S. (−0.39 +/- 0.10 micro-g/cu m/yr), the Arabian Peninsula (0.81 +/- 0.21 micro-g/cu m/yr), South Asia (0.93 +/- 0.22 micro-g/cu m/yr) and East Asia (0.79 +/- 0.27 micro-g/cu m/yr). Over the period of dense in situ observation (1999− 2012), the linear tendency for the Eastern U.S. (−0.37 +/- 0.13 micro-g/cu m/yr) agrees well with that from in situ measurements (−0.38 +/- 0.06 micro-g/cu m/yr). A GEOS-Chem simulation reveals that secondary inorganic aerosols largely explain the observed PM2.5 trend over the Eastern U.S., South Asia, and East Asia, while mineral dust largely explains the observed trend over the Arabian Peninsula.

aerosol optical depth↗
NASA NTRS2015

GMI Capabilities

We describe the capabilities of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM) with a special focus on capabilities related to the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). Several science results based on GMI hindcast simulations and preliminary results from the ATom simulations are highlighted. We also discuss the relationship between GMI and GEOS-5.

modeling↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Ability of Instantaneous Aircraft and Sonde Measurements to Characterize Climatological Means and Long-Term Trends in Tropospheric Composition

Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.

Atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Summer-Time Ozone and Precursor Species in the Southeast United States

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality and atmospheric chemistry. The understanding and ability to model the horizontal and vertical structure of O3 mixing ratios is difficult due to the complex formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large variability of O3. The Environmental Protection Agency has National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3 set at 75 ppb with future standards proposed to be as low as 65 ppb. These lower values emphasize the need to better understand/simulate the transport processes, emission sources, and chemical processes controlling precursor species (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO) which influence O3 mixing ratios. The uncertainty of these controlling variables is particularly large in the southeast United States (US) which is a region impacted by multiple different emission sources of precursor species (anthropogenic and biogenic) and transport processes resulting in complex spatio-temporal O3 patterns. During this work we will evaluate O3 and precursor species in the southeast US applying models, ground-based and airborne in situ data, and lidar observations. In the summer of 2013, the UAH O3 Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) (part of the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet)) measured vertical O3 profiles from the surface up to approximately 12 km. During this period, the lidar observed numerous periods of dynamic temporal and vertical O3 structures. In order to determine the sources/processes impacting these O3 mixing ratios we will apply the CTM GEOS-Chem (v9-02) at a 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg resolution. Using in situ ground-based (e.g., SEARCH Network, CASTNET), airborne (e.g., NOAA WP-3D - SENEX 2013, DC-8 - SEAC4RS), and TOLNet lidar data we will first evaluate the model to determine the capability of GEOS-Chem to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of O3 in the southeast US. Secondly, we will perform model sensitivity studies in order to quantify which emission sources (e.g., anthropogenic, biogenic, lighting, wildfire) and transport processes (e.g., stratospheric, long-range, local scale) are contributing to these TOLNet-observed dynamic O3 patterns. Results from the evaluation of the model and the study of sources/processes impacting observed O3 mixing ratios will be presented.

Optical Radar↗
NASA NTRS2017

Full-Coverage High-Resolution Daily PM(sub 2.5) Estimation using MAIAC AOD in the Yangtze River Delta of China

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been used to assess population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)). The emerging high-resolution satellite aerosol product, Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction(MAIAC), provides a valuable opportunity to characterize local-scale PM(sub 2.5) at 1-km resolution. However, non-random missing AOD due to cloud snow cover or high surface reflectance makes this task challenging. Previous studies filled the data gap by spatially interpolating neighboring PM(sub 2.5) measurements or predictions. This strategy ignored the effect of cloud cover on aerosol loadings and has been shown to exhibit poor performance when monitoring stations are sparse or when there is seasonal large-scale missngness. Using the Yangtze River Delta of China as an example, we present a Multiple Imputation (MI) method that combines the MAIAC high-resolution satellite retrievals with chemical transport model (CTM) simulations to fill missing AOD. A two-stage statistical model driven by gap-filled AOD, meteorology and land use information was then fitted to estimate daily ground PM(sub 2.5) concentrations in 2013 and 2014 at 1 km resolution with complete coverage in space and time. The daily MI models have an average R(exp 2) of 0.77, with an inter-quartile range of 0.71 to 0.82 across days. The overall Ml model 10-fold cross-validation R(exp 2) (root mean square error) were 0.81 (25 gm(exp 3)) and 0.73 (18 gm(exp 3)) for year 2013 and 2014, respectively. Predictions with only observational AOD or only imputed AOD showed similar accuracy.Comparing with previous gap-filling methods, our MI method presented in this study performed bette rwith higher coverage, higher accuracy, and the ability to fill missing PM(sub 2.5) predictions without ground PM(sub 2.5) measurements. This method can provide reliable PM(sub 2.5)predictions with complete coverage that can reduce biasin exposure assessment in air pollution and health studies.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS2017

Influence of Mid-Latitude Cyclones on European Background Surface Ozone Investigated in Observations, MACC and MERRA-2 Reanalyses

The relationship between springtime mid-latitude cyclones and background ozone at two rural monitoring sites on the west coast of Europe -- Mace Head, Ireland and Monte Velho, Portugal -- is explored using a combination of observations and three reanalyses: 1) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, 2) the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis and 3) NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis. The ERA-Interim cyclone tracks are used here to establish the long-term relationship between cyclones and ozone observations (since 1988). The MACC reanalysis data set, which covers the period 2003-2012, is produced with the ECMWF integrated forecast system (IFS) model two-way coupled to a chemistry transport model (CTM). Since the MACC reanalysis uses a similar atmospheric model to ERA-Interim, MACC is used to explore the mechanisms within the case study cyclones that can influence surface ozone concentrations at Mace Head and Monte Velho. The MERRA-2 reanalysis also provides 3D distributions of ozone, although less ideal for analysis of surface ozone concentrations since MERRA-2 ozone under represents ozone variability outside the stratosphere as it does not have a detailed chemistry scheme or emission sources for the troposphere. The MERRA-2 reanalysis, which has the potential to identify more features within the cyclones as the resolution is higher than the MACC reanalysis, is used in conjunction with the MACC reanalysis to provide a measure of uncertainty to the case study analysis. We found the main source of high ozone to these two sites is from the stratosphere, which is well represented in both the MERRA-2 and the MACC reanalyses, either from direct injection into the cyclone or associated with aged airstreams from decaying downstream cyclones that can become entrained and descend toward the surface within new cyclones over the NA region.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS2019

Optimizing Umkehr Ozone Profile Retrievals

NOAA Dobson Umkehr ozone profile records have been collected since the 1970s. Umkehr ozone profiles are used to monitor stratospheric ozone recovery predicted to occur by the 2050s. Current operational Dobson Umkehr profile algorithms produce data that have uncertainty on the order of ~ 5 % in the stratosphere. However, when large volcanic eruptions inject aerosols into the stratosphere, the errors can be as large as 70 %. In order to evaluate Umkehr records for aerosol-related and instrumental artifacts, we compare observations with a Hindcast simulation of the NASA Merra-2 Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Replay (M2GMI, Orbe et al, 2017; Wargan et al, 2018) and Chemistry Transport Model (GMI CTM, Strahan et al, 2013, Strahan et al, 2016). The biases found between the models and observations are summarized for each Dobson calibration and volcanic eruption period, thus providing a reference tool for homogenization of the Umkehr time series and removal of volcanic aerosol errors.

Petropavlovskikh, I.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization and Modeling of Large Collapsible Tubular Mast Booms

This paper will document the analysis of high-strain composite booms in the joint NASA-German Aerospace Center (DLR) Deployable Composite Booms (DCB) project. The collapsible tubular mast (CTM) booms were manufactured at NASA Langley Research Center, where constituent material coupons were also characterized, and shipped to DLR in Germany for testing of beam properties and the strength of the DLR flight-like root deployer design. With this data, a finite element model of the booms was built, calibrated to one set of experimental measurements, and used to produce a simplified beam model for further engineering studies.The final paper will discuss the process of building this beam model and the treatment of gaps in experimental characterization.

Olive R. Stohlman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization and Modeling of Large Collapsible Tubular Mast Booms

This paper documents the analysis of high-strain composite booms in the joint NASA-German Aerospace Center (DLR) Deployable Composite Booms (DCB) project. The collapsible tubular mast (CTM) booms were manufactured at NASA Langley Research Center, where constituent material coupons were also characterized, and shipped to DLR in Germany for testing of beam properties and the strength of the DLR flight-like root deployer design. With this data, a finite element model of the booms was built, calibrated to one set of experimental measurements, and used to produce a simplified beam model for further engineering studies. The process of building this beam model and the treatment of gaps in experimental characterization are presented.

composite materials↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals

This study assesses the impact of different state of the art global biospheric CO2 flux models, when applied as prior information, on inverse model “top-down” estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes obtained when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations. This is done with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using synthetic CO2 column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals sampled at the OCO-2 satellite spatiotemporal frequency. The OSSEs utilized a 4-D variational (4D-Var) assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes using synthetic OCO-2 observations. The impact of biosphere models in inverse model estimates of NEE is quantified by conducting OSSEs using the NASA-CASA, CASA-GFED, SiB-4, and LPJ models as prior estimates and using NEE from the multi-model ensemble mean of the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project as the “truth”. Results show that the assimilation of simulated XCO2 retrievals at OCO-2 observing modes over land results in posterior NEE estimates which generally reproduce “true” NEE globally and over terrestrial TransCom-3 regions that are well-sampled. However, we find larger spread among posterior NEE estimates, when using different prior NEE fluxes, in regions and seasons that have limited OCO-2 observational coverage and a large range in “bottom-up” NEE fluxes. Seasonally averaged posterior NEE estimates had standard deviations (SD) of ∼10 % to ∼50 % of the multi-model-mean NEE for different TransCom-3 land regions with significant NEE fluxes (regions/seasons with a NEE flux ≥0.5 PgC/yr). On a global average, the seasonally averaged residual impact of the prior model NEE assumption on the posterior NEE spread is ∼10 %–20 % of the posterior NEE mean. Additional OCO-2 OSSE simulations demonstrate that posterior NEE estimates are also sensitive to the assumed prior NEE flux uncertainty statistics, with spread in posterior NEE estimates similar to those when using variable prior model NEE fluxes. In fact, the sensitivity of posterior NEE estimates to prior error statistics was larger than prior flux values in some regions/times in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere where sufficient OCO-2 data were available and large differences between the prior and truth were evident. Overall, even with the availability of spatiotemporally dense OCO-2 data, noticeable residual differences (up to ∼20 %–30 % globally and 50 % regionally) in posterior NEE flux estimates remain that were caused by the choice of prior model flux values and the specification of prior flux uncertainties.

Sajeev Philip↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structural Architectures for Self-Erecting Lunar Towers

The load carrying performance for deployable lunar tower architectures utilizing thin-ply composite booms are parametrically evaluated in this paper. These self-erecting towers support a communications and sensor platform on the lunar surface. The primary design consists of the Corrugated Rollable Tubular Boom (COROTUB) acting as the primary mast of the tower which supports the payload tip mass. Guy wires connecting the boom tip to spreader bars attached at the base deployer serve to correct any lateral eccentricities and provide dimensional stability. The analysis compares the maximum tip mass that this primary design can carry relative to a reference design that does not contain any guy wires or spreader bars. The results provide insights into whether the additional system mass and complexity associated with the cable-stayed design is worth the increased payload mass that can be supported. By setting the design limiting condition to a nominal maximum allowable deflection, the analysis reveals that primary design outperforms reference design for the majority of the design space. This outcome is found to be the case when the spreader bar length relative to the tower height exceeds7 a critical value. The analysis is extended to lunar towers with Collapsible Tubular Mast (CTM) booms, and similar trends are observed.

Jacob G Daye↗