Finding Causal Gateways of Precipitation Over the Contiguous United States
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Xueli Yang↗
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Application of advanced causal analyses to identify processes governing secondary organic aerosols
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Seeking Structure in Complex Systems: From Feature Analysis to Space-Time Causal Discovery with Earth Science Applications
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Nichol, Jeffrey [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL↗
Circulating levels of micronutrients and risk of osteomyelitis: a Mendelian randomization study
Background Few observational studies have investigated the effect of micronutrients on osteomyelitis, and these findings are limited by confounding and conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the association between blood levels of eight micronutrients (copper, selenium, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin D, vitamin B6, vitamin E) and the risk of osteomyelitis. Methods We performed the two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) to investigate causation, where instrument variables for the predictor (micronutrients) were derived from the summary data of micronutrients from independent cohorts of European ancestry. The outcome instrumental variables were used from the summary data of European-ancestry individuals ( n = 486,484). The threshold of statistical significance was set at p < 0.00625. Results We found a significant causal association that elevated zinc heightens the risk of developing osteomyelitis in European ancestry individuals OR = 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07, 1.43]; p = 4.26E-03]. Similarly, vitamin B6 showed a similar significant causal effect on osteomyelitis as a risk factor OR = 2.78 (95% CI [1.34, 5.76]; p = 6.04E-03; in the secondary analysis). Post-hoc analysis suggested this result (vitamin B6). However, the multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) provides evidence against the causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis OR = 0.98(95% CI [−0.11, 0.07]; p = 7.20E-1). After searching in PhenoScanner, no SNP with confounding factors was found in the analysis of vitamin B6. There was no evidence of a reverse causal impact of osteomyelitis on zinc and vitamin B6. Conclusion This study supported a strong causal association between vitamin B6 and osteomyelitis while reporting a dubious causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis.
Zhang, Xu↗
Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions
Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Log-Based Recovery in Asynchronous Distributed Systems
A log-based mechanism is described for restoring consistent states to replicated data objects after failures. Preserving a causal form of consistency based on the notion of virtual time is focused upon in this report. Causal consistency has been shown to apply to a variety of applications, including distributed simulation, task decomposition, and mail delivery systems. Several mechanisms have been proposed for implementing causally consistent recovery, most notably those of Strom and Yemini, and Johnson and Zwaenepoel. The mechanism proposed here differs from these in two major respects. First, a roll-forward style of recovery is implemented. A functioning process is never required to roll-back its state in order to achieve consistency with a recovering process. Second, the mechanism does not require any explicit information about the causal dependencies between updates. Instead, all necessary dependency information is inferred from the orders in which updates are logged by the object servers. This basic recovery technique appears to be applicable to forms of consistency other than causal consistency. In particular, it is shown how the recovery technique can be modified to support an atomic form of consistency (grouping consistency). By combining grouping consistency with casual consistency, it may even be possible to implement serializable consistency within this mechanism.
Kane, Kenneth Paul↗
Modular flow in JT gravity and entanglement wedge reconstruction
It has been shown in recent works that JT gravity with matter with two boundaries has a type II ∞ algebra on each side. As the bulk spacetime between the two boundaries fluctuates in quantum nature, we can only define the entanglement wedge for each side in a pure algebraic sense. As we take the semiclassical limit, we will have a fixed long wormhole spacetime for a generic partially entangled thermal state (PETS), which is prepared by inserting heavy operators on the Euclidean path integral. Under this limit, with appropriate assumptions of the matter theory, geometric notions of the causal wedge and entanglement wedge emerge in this background. In particular, the causal wedge is manifestly nested in the entanglement wedge. Different PETS are orthogonal to each other, and thus the Hilbert space has a direct sum structure over sub-Hilbert spaces labeled by different Euclidean geometries. The full algebra for both sides is decomposed accordingly. From the algebra viewpoint, the causal wedge is dual to an emergent type III 1 subalgebra, which is generated by boundary light operators. To reconstruct the entanglement wedge, we consider the modular flow in a generic PETS for each boundary. We show that the modular flow acts locally and is the boost transformation around the global RT surface in the semiclassical limit. It follows that we can extend the causal wedge algebra to a larger type III 1 algebra corresponding to the entanglement wedge. Within each sub-Hilbert space, the original type II ∞ reduces to type III 1 .
2D Gravity↗
Quantum Gravity and Laser Interferometry: Towards Observable Predictions
Understanding quantum gravity remains one of the deepest challenges in modern physics, as direct experimental access to Planck-scale effects is beyond current technological reach. However, recent theoretical advances indicate that quantum fluctuations of spacetime may produce measurable effects in precision experiments, particularly near causal horizons. This opens new avenues for testing quantum gravity phenomena through high-precision measurement techniques. This dissertation develops multiple theoretical models to characterize these effects and examines their potential observational signatures in future gravitational wave interferometers. We begin by investigating the role of quantum fluctuations in near-horizon geometries through the lens of the AdS/CFT correspondence, which provides a powerful framework for understanding the interplay between quantum field theory and general relativity via holographic principles. By modeling stochastic energy-momentum sources in Rindler-AdS spacetime, we demonstrate that vacuum fluctuations transform the Einstein equations into a Langevin-type stochastic differential equation, leading to potentially observable fluctuations in photon traversal times. Extending this approach to Minkowski spacetime, we establish a correspondence between gravitational shockwaves and fluid dynamics, showing that near-horizon perturbations satisfy an equation analogous to that governing incompressible fluids, thereby reinforcing the membrane paradigm and hydrodynamic analogies in the context of the fluid/gravity duality. Furthermore, we construct the covariant phase space of a spherically symmetric causal diamond in Minkowski spacetime, identifying two fundamental charges that govern its evolution. These results provide a foundation for quantizing causal horizons and understanding their microscopic degrees of freedom. Building upon these theoretical developments, we further examine a related stochastic phenomenon: the gravitational wave memory background arising from the cumulative memory steps produced by supermassive black hole mergers. After reviewing the standard stochastic gravitational wave background, gravitational memory effects, and BMS symmetries, we model the stochastic memory background using a Brownian motion framework. We show that while the cumulative memory background initially appears above the sensitivity curve of space-based interferometers like LISA, the realistic subtraction of individually resolvable merger events substantially suppresses the residual signal, making its detection more challenging. This highlights the critical importance of source subtraction when evaluating the detectability of gravitational memory effects. By bridging fundamental theory with experimental prospects, this dissertation contributes to the ongoing effort to uncover the quantum nature of spacetime through precision measurement techniques. Whether through detecting quantum spacetime fluctuations, gravitational memory backgrounds, or probing the symmetries of causal horizons, the pursuit of observable quantum gravity phenomena continues to expand the frontiers of both theory and experiment.
Zhang, Yiwen [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000323559416)↗
Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations
Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed
Reehorst, Andrew L.↗
The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents
In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.
Ancel, Ersin↗
Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation
For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. Formalization of the process for creating these causal diagrams will enable the creation of a composite risk network that is vetted by members of the NASA community and configuration managed. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document outlines the pilot process, the standardized approaches, and guidance for risk custodian teams when creating and updating DAGs as a part of the NASA Human System Risk Management process.
Risk↗
Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation
Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Targeted seed EMS mutagenesis reveals a basic helix–loop–helix transcription factor underlying male sterility in sorghum
Abstract Forward genetic screens of mutant populations are fundamental for functional genomics studies. However, isolating independent mutant alleles to molecularly identify causal genes is challenging in species recalcitrant to genetic manipulation. Here, we demonstrate that classic seed ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS) mutagenesis coupled with genome sequencing can overcome this limitation in sorghum. We used this method to generate new mutant alleles of sorghum MALE STERILE 8 (MS8) and identified the causal locus for the ms8 phenotype as Sobic.004G270900, which encodes the sorghum ortholog of maize bhlh122, a basic helix–loop–helix (bHLH) transcription factor required for male fertility in maize. Bulked segregant analysis mapped ms8-1 to a region on chromosome 4 containing Sobic.004G270900. Seeds from heterozygous MS8/ms8-1 plants were mutagenized and screened for chimeric inflorescences containing sectors with white, sterile anthers resembling the ms8-1 homozygous phenotype. DNA sequencing of sterile and fertile sectors from a single chimeric inflorescence revealed two mutations in Sobic.004G270900 within the sterile sector, but not the fertile sector. Isolation of this loss-of-function allele (ms8-2) established Sobic.004G270900 as the causative locus for male sterility in the ms8 mutant. We generated additional alleles of MS8 in a different genetic background using CRISPR/Cas9-based gene editing, where deletions in Sobic.004G270900 also resulted in male sterility. Our work identified a gene underlying male sterility in sorghum and provides a novel and straightforward genetic tool for researchers who lack access to advanced transformation facilities to validate gene candidates. Unlike gene editing, no prior knowledge of candidate genes is required for targeted seed EMS mutagenesis to aid identification of causal loci.
Genetics & Heredity↗
Complementarity for a dynamical black hole
Black hole complementarity posits that the interior of a black hole is not independent from its Hawking radiation. This leads to an apparent violation of causality: the interior can be acausally affected by operators acting solely on the radiation. We argue that this perspective is misleading and that the black hole interior must be viewed as existing in the causal past of the Hawking radiation, despite the fact that they are spacelike separated in the semiclassical description. Consequently, no operation on the Hawking radiation—no matter how complex—can affect the experience of an infalling observer. The black hole interior and the radiation only appear spacelike separated in the semiclassical description because an infalling observer’s ability to access complex information is limited; the chaotic dynamics on the horizon, as viewed from the exterior, then converts any effect caused by such an observer to information in the Hawking radiation which cannot be accessed at the semiclassical level. We arrive at the picture described above by considering a unitary exterior description in which the flow of information is strictly causal, which we extend to apply throughout the entire history of black hole evolution, including its formation. This description uses the stretched event horizon as an inner edge of spacetime, on which the information inside is holographically encoded. We argue that the global spacetime picture arises from coarse graining over black hole microstates, and discuss its relationship with the exterior description.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Efficiently Computable Limits on EPR Pair Generation in Quantum Broadcast Channels
We investigate the generation of EPR pairs between three observers in a general causally structured setting, where communication occurs via a noisy quantum broadcast channel. The most general quantum codes for this setup take the form of tripartite quantum channels. Since the receivers are constrained by causal ordering, additional temporal relationships naturally emerge between the parties. These causal constraints enforce intrinsic no-signalling conditions on any tripartite operation, ensuring that it constitutes a physically realizable quantum code for a quantum broadcast channel. We analyze these constraints and, more broadly, characterize the most general quantum codes for communication over such channels. We examine the capabilities of codes that are fully no-signalling among the three parties, positive partial transpose (PPT)-preserving, or both, and derive simple semidefinite programs to compute the achievable entanglement fidelity. We then establish a hierarchy of semidefinite programming converse bounds -- both weak and strong -- for the capacity of quantum broadcast channels for EPR pair generation, in both one-shot and asymptotic regimes. Notably, in the special case of a point-to-point channel, our strong converse bound recovers and strengthens existing results. Finally, we demonstrate how the PPT-preserving codes we develop can be leveraged to construct PPT-preserving entanglement combing schemes, and vice versa.
FOS: Physical sciences↗
Nonlinear plants, factorizations and stable feedback systems
For nonlinear plants represented by causal maps defined over extended spaces, right factorization and normalized right-coprime factorization concepts are discussed in terms of well-posed stable feedback systems. This setup covers continuous-time, discrete-time, time-invariant or time-varying input-output maps. The nonlinear maps are factored in terms of causal bounded-input bounded-output stable maps. In factored form, all instabilities of the original map are represented by the inverse of a causal stable `denominator' map. The existence of maps with right factorizations and normalized right-coprime factorizations is shown using a well-posed stable unity-feedback system. In the case where one of the subsystems has a normalized right-coprime factorization, the stability of the feedback system is equivalent to the stability of the pseudostate map.
Desoer, Charles A.↗
Predictions of Substorms and Intensifications Following Northward Turnings of the IMF
Substorms are often observed to occur at the end of intervals of Southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), i.e. following the northward turning. Despite the significant correlation between northward turning and substorms, no direct causal relationship between northward turnings and substorms has been demonstrated. Assuming such a causal relationship, we predict that substorms will occur within a particular interval following the observation of a northward turning in the IMF. We observe 16 northward turnings following steady, southward IMF in data taken by the WIND spacecraft magnetic field instrument (MFI). To ensure that the northward turning was observed at the magnetosphere, we require that the northward turning also be observed by instruments on either one of Geotail or IMP-8 while the separation of the second spacecraft from WIND was more that 10 R(sub E). These two-spacecraft observations also allow us to predict more accurately the arrival time of the northward turning at the Earth. Of the predictions substorms, 10 predictions were clearly successful to within +/- 12 min. Five predictions failed, but the failures reveal clear shortcomings in the criteria for a northward turning that we correct. The failures were caused by an increase in the absolute value of B(sub YGSM) simultaneous with the northward turning in 3 cases, and a weak southward IMF preceding the northward turning in 2 cases. The final northward turning arrived in the recovery phase of an ongoing substorm, and resulted in unusual auroral activity. The implication of the predictability of substorms following sharp northward turnings is that the postulated causal relationship between northward turnings and substorm onset exists. The effect of increases in the absolute value of B(sub YGSM) to negate the triggering ability of northward turnings suggests that the triggering mechanism involves sharp reductions in the magnetospheric convection electric field.
Blanchard, G. T.↗
The Role of Instability Waves in Predicting Jet Noise
There has been an ongoing debate about the role of linear instability waves in the prediction of jet noise. Parallel mean flow models, such as the one proposed by Lilley, usually neglect these waves because they cause the solution to become infinite. The resulting solution is then non-causal and can, therefore, be quite different from the true causal solution for the chaotic flows being considered here. The present paper solves the relevant acoustic equations for a non-parallel mean flow by using a vector Green s function approach and assuming the mean flow to be weakly non-parallel, i.e., assuming the spread rate to be small. It demonstrates that linear instability waves must be accounted for in order to construct a proper causal solution to the jet noise problem. . Recent experimental results (e.g., see Tam, Golebiowski, and Seiner,1996) show that the small angle spectra radiated by supersonic jets are quite different from those radiated at larger angles (say, at 90deg) and even exhibit dissimilar frequency scalings (i.e., they scale with Helmholtz number as opposed to Strouhal number). The present solution is (among other things )able to explain this rather puzzling experimental result.
Goldstein, M. E.↗