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DOE OSTI2021

Proceedings of RIKEN BNL Research Center Workshop: Small-x Physics in the EIC Era [Slides]

Understanding the high energy limit of hadronic and nuclear collisions is at the forefront of nuclear and particle physics. When boosted to ultrahigh energies, all hadrons and nuclei eventually transform into a universal form of matter called the Color Glass Condensate (CGC). The CGC is characterized by the high density (saturation) of small-x gluons which leads to distinct experimental signatures. Tantalizing hints of the CGC have been observed at HERA, RHIC and the LHC, but the prospects for the discovery of the CGC are more promising at future experiments such as the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) at BNL Indeed, according to the National Science Academy report published in 2019, one of the three major goals of the EIC is to address the nature of the gluon saturation. (The other two are the mass and spin structure of the nucleons.) With this in mind, the small-x community is gearing up to meet the challenges of the EIC era. Over the past several years, there has been impressive progress in the next-to-leading order (NLO) calculations in the CGC framework of various observables such as single hadron production in proton-nucleus collisions, inclusive and exclusive dijet and trijet production in Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS), jet-plus-photon production in DIS, etc. We expect that NLO calculations will be the standard tool to confront future experimental data at the EIC. Another emerging trend of the community is the interplay between small-x physics and spin physics. The RHIC result for the gluon helicity ΔG has underscored the necessity to understand the longitudinal spin structure of the proton at small-x. There have been theoretical indications that a significant fraction of spin and orbital angular momentum is stored in the small-x region. As for the transversely polarized proton, a surprising new connection between the gluon Sivers function at small-x and the QCD Odderon has been pointed out and its implications at the EIC has been discussed. In view of these developments, we think it is timely to organize a dedicated workshop on small-x physics to summarize the present status of the field and to discuss future directions. A major focus of this workshop will be to identify outstanding problems that could significantly benefit from collaborative efforts amongst scientists working on formal, phenomenological, and computational aspects of small-x physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data for Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach

This data package contains raw data, data output, and code of photosynthetic temperature response curves from tropical forests. Data are used in "Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach". The research investigates how photosynthetic optimum temperatures and shapes of photosynthetic temperature response curves varies across tropical forest climates and growth conditions. Growth climate variables include mean annual temperature, max and max temperature, diurnal temperature range, and aridity index. Meta-analysis combines 18 datasets with representation from Africa, Oceana, North American, and South America. Growth conditions analyzed considers deciduousness, successional status, light conditions, and whether plants are grown in situ or ex situ. All files, except for the raw datafile (Tropical_MetaAnalysis_Master_3.8.22_Edit.csv), have been processed using R code, which is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interdisciplinary Approaches Improve Understanding of Cryptogenic Species: A Historical Case Study of Crayfish in Montana, USA

ABSTRACT Cryptogenic species are those that are not yet “demonstrably native or introduced” in a given area, such as crayfish in western Montana, USA. Delving into evidence from diverse fields can help clarify the status of cryptogenic species. Primary historical sources and indigenous knowledge have informed various ecological questions but are seldom used to clarify the status of cryptogenic species, especially aquatic taxa. We summarize types of evidence used to illuminate species status and offer a case study applying historical sources to cryptogenic crayfish in Montana. We searched for crayfish mentions in dictionaries of indigenous languages and primary historical documents (e.g., travel journals, newspaper accounts, early biological surveys). Early explorer accounts we examined did not mention crayfish in Montana, though they noted them in the nearby Snake River drainage of Idaho and Wyoming. The first mention of crayfish in Montana that we found was from an 1868 newspaper account, probably referencing the upper Missouri River. The species was not noted, but an 1887 article suggested signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus introductions near Bozeman, where non‐native signal crayfish still persist. The earliest crayfish mention we found west of the Great Divide in Montana was from 1934 in Ninepipes and probably referred to non‐native virile crayfish ( Faxonius virilis ). Signal crayfish were not mentioned west of the Divide until a 1944 newspaper account noted their 1937 introduction to the Bitterroot River drainage. The case study demonstrates the value of historical sources in identifying the absence of species and documenting their presence or introduction during periods predating scientific data.

Kennedy, Hampton L. [USDA Forest Service, Southern↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Representation of Human Actions in Large‐Scale Hydrological Models: Challenges and Future Research Directions

Characterizing the impact of human actions on terrestrial water fluxes and storages at multi-basin, continental, and global scales has long been on the agenda of scientists engaged in climate science, hydrology, and water resources systems analysis. This need has resulted in a variety of modeling efforts focused on the representation of water infrastructure operations. Yet, the representation of human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological models is still relatively crude, fragmented across models, and often achieved at coarse resolutions (~10–100 km) that cannot capture local water management decisions. In this commentary, we argue that the concomitance of four drivers and innovations is poised to change the status quo: “hyper-resolution” hydrological models (~0.1–1 km), multi-sector modeling, satellite missions able to monitor the outcome of human actions, and machine learning are creating a fertile environment for human-water research to flourish. We then outline four challenges that chart future research in hydrological modeling: (a) creating hyper-resolution global data sets of water management practices, (b) improving the characterization of anthropogenic interventions on water quantity, stream temperature, and sediment transport, (c) improving model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, and (d) reducing the computational requirements associated with the successful exploration of these challenges. Overcoming them will require addressing modeling, computational, and data development needs that cut across the hydrology community, thereby requiring a major communal effort.

catchment hydrology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Imaging the initial condition of heavy-ion collisions and nuclear structure across the nuclide chart

High-energy nuclear collisions encompass three key stages: the structure of the colliding nuclei, informed by low-energy nuclear physics, the initial condition , leading to the formation of quark–gluon plasma (QGP), and the hydrodynamic expansion and hadronization of the QGP, leading to final-state hadron distributions that are observed experimentally. Recent advances in both experimental and theoretical methods have ushered in a precision era of heavy-ion collisions, enabling an increasingly accurate understanding of these stages. However, most approaches involve simultaneously determining both QGP properties and initial conditions from a single collision system, creating complexity due to the coupled contributions of these stages to the final-state observables. To avoid this, we propose leveraging established knowledge of low-energy nuclear structures and hydrodynamic observables to independently constrain the QGP’s initial condition. By conducting comparative studies of collisions involving isobar-like nuclei—species with similar mass numbers but different ground-state geometries—we can disentangle the initial condition’s impacts from the QGP properties. This approach not only refines our understanding of the initial stages of the collisions but also turns high-energy nuclear experiments into a precision tool for imaging nuclear structures, offering insights that complement traditional low-energy approaches. Opportunities for carrying out such comparative experiments at the Large Hadron Collider and other facilities could significantly advance both high-energy and low-energy nuclear physics. Additionally, this approach has implications for the future electron-ion collider. While the possibilities are extensive, we focus on selected proposals that could benefit both the high-energy and low-energy nuclear physics communities. Originally prepared as input for the long-range plan of U.S. nuclear physics, this white paper reflects the status as of September 2022, with a brief update on developments since then.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Tree Inventory

This is the tree inventory (diameter, species, and live/dead status) data from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment is part of the COMPASS-FME (Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales: Field Measurements and Experiments; see https://compass.pnnl.gov/FME/COMPASSFME) project. It addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in eastern Maryland, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments.This dataset includes:- An overall dataset README file.- The tree inventory data in both "wide" and "long" forms. These contain the same information but are structured differently, with the former more useful for human viewers and the latter more amenable for programmatic analyses.- A key to the species/genus codes used, which follow the U.S. Department of Agriculture's PLANTS schema (https://plants.usda.gov/).- A copy of the R code used to generate the wide- and long-form data files.All files are comma-separated value (CSV) and no special software is required to read them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Acute wood smoke exposure is associated with cell-specific hippocampal transcriptomic responses in an accelerated ovarian failure mouse model

Background Wildfire events are increasing in frequency and intensity, and aging individuals demonstrate heightened biological susceptibility to air pollution exposures including increased risk of neurological sequelae. Declining ovarian hormones levels that occur with aging in females along with associated systemic physiological and inflammatory changes may contribute to increased cerebral vulnerability to air pollution, representing a potential but underexplored mechanism. Menopause and the menopausal transition represent a period of profound physiological change that affects cardiovascular, neurological, and immune health. Methods We tested whether peri-menopausal–like hormonal status amplifies hippocampal responses to acute wood smoke (WS) using an ovary-intact, 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide (VCD) model of moderate accelerated ovarian failure (AOF) in female C57BL/6 mice. Animals were exposed to HEPA-filtered air (FA) or WS for 4 h/day over 2 consecutive days (∼0.5 mg/m³). Exposure characterization confirmed a complex mixture of combustion products with significant levels of both trace metals and gas release during WS exposure. Results Spatial transcriptomics (10x Visium; n = 4 sections/group) with automated cell-type annotation identified astrocytes, GABAergic and glutamatergic neurons, oligodendrocytes, revealed cell type-specific transcriptional alterations following WS exposure. Distinct transcriptional patterns were observed across all identified neuronal and glial cell populations. Conclusion Together, these findings define a cell-type specific transcriptomic framework describing how WS exposure and ovarian hormone decline interact to influence hippocampal responses and identify potential cellular pathways relevant to hippocampal vulnerability.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Contributions of major tau kinase activation and phospho-tau accumulation to cortical and hippocampal tangle formation and cognition in older adults

Aberrant activation of tau kinases (tauK) has been proposed as a major step in tau hyperphosphorylation and misfolding, and subsequent formation of neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) in Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, evidence of tauK hyperactivation in actual AD brains is scarce and inconsistent, and their role in age-related cognitive decline remains undocumented. We evaluated activated/inhibited species of CDK5/p35/p25, GSK3a/ß, and ERK1/2 as well as ten tau/phospho-tau (ptau) peptides (mapping Ser 202 , Thr 217 , Ser 262 , Ser 305 , and Ser 404 phospho-residues) by Western blot or selected reaction monitoring proteomics, respectively, in postmortem dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and hippocampal samples of 150 participants from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (MAP). Regression models and mediation analyses assessed the contributions of these variables to tau phosphorylation, NFT deposition and antemortem cognitive status of MAP participants. Surprisingly, greater p25 and p35 (indices for CDK5 activation) and lower pSer 21/9 -GSK3a/ß (inhibited species) immunodensities were associated with lower ptau peptide amounts. Individuals with higher p25 cortical densities displayed better cognitive outcomes, particularly working memory. Statistical mediation analyses indicated that the beneficial effect of CDK5/p25 on cognition was mediated by lower densities of phospho-Thr 217 -tau and NFT deposition in DLPFC, and also identified Thr 217 and Ser 262 as the ptau sites with greatest influence in both NFT accumulation and cognitive impairment. The present data suggest that tau hyperphosphorylation, tangle deposition, and the subsequent cognitive impairment do not rely on aberrant activation of major tauKs. Additionally, novel evidence was provided for the beneficial contribution of cortical CDK5/p25 to the maintenance of working memory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of nutritional history, prey quality, and quantity on grazing and photophysiological responses in the mixoplanktonic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis

The mixotrophic toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis forms red tides almost annually along Florida's Gulf coast. We hypothesize that the nutritional status and abundance of its prey, the picocyanobacterium Synechococcus , will affect its feeding rates and growth responses, with implications for bloom dynamics. This study investigated how prey nutritional quality and quantity (absolute and relative) impact grazing rates by K. brevis initially exponentially growing and in nitrogen (N)-limited conditions, and how grazing, in turn, affects the photophysiological responses of predator and prey. Prey quality was manipulated by providing Synechococcus grown under different ratios of N : phosphorus (P). Synechococcus quality did not significantly affect ingestion rates (measured as prey death rate) but grazing rates increased with increasing prey : grazer ratios (R 2 = 0.7). Compared to control, the growth of exponentially growing grazers doubled when Synechococcus was provided, whereas there was no growth enhancement when Synechococcus of varying qualities was provided to N-limited, chemostat-seeded grazers. Despite this doubled growth, 15 N labeling of the prey and nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry (nanoSIMS) detected low Synechococcus -N transfer into grazer biomass after 3 d (< 1% on a cell basis). This suggests the potential of grazers benefiting from alternative N sources (e.g., microbiome-N) or other constituents (e.g., vitamins or metals) not measured in this study. Prey photosynthetic efficiency declined under grazing conditions, demonstrating that grazers can directly affect prey abundance through grazing and indirectly affect prey photophysiology, potentially via allelopathy, supporting previous findings of an inverse relationship between grazers and prey along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Ahn, So Hyun [Univ. of Maryland, Cambridge, MD (Un↗

DOE OSTI2025

Metalized Polymer Current Collector for High-Energy Lithium-Ion Batteries with Extreme Fast-Charging Capability

Electric vehicles are pivotal in the global shift toward decarbonizing road transport, with lithium-ion batteries at the heart of this technological evolution. However, the pursuit of batteries capable of extremely fast charging that also satisfy high energy and safety criteria, poses a significant challenge to current lithium-ion batteries technologies. Additionally, the increasing demand for aluminum (Al) and copper (Cu) in electrification, solar energy technologies, and vehicle light-eighting is driving these metals toward near-critical status in the medium term. This study introduces metalized polythylene terephthalate (mPET) polymer films by depositing an Al or Cu thin layer onto two sides of a polyethylene terephthalate film—named mPET/Al and mPET/Cu, as lightweight, cost-effective alternatives to traditional metal current collectors in lithium-ion batteries. We have fabricated current collectors that significantly reduce weight (by 73%), thickness (by 33%), and cost (by 85%) compared with traditional metal foil counterparts. These advancements have the potential to enhance energy density to 280 Wh kg -1 at the electrode level under 10-min charging at 6 C. Through testing, including a novel extremely fast charging protocol across various C-rates and long-term cycling (up to 1000 cycles) in different cell configurations, the superior performance of these metalized polymer films has been demonstrated. Notably, mPET/Cu and mPET/Al films exhibited comparable capacities to conventional cells under extremely fast charging, with the mPET cells showing a 27% improvement in energy density at 6 C and maintaining significant energy density after 1000 cycles. This study underscores the potential of mPET films to revolutionize the roll-to-roll battery manufacturing process and significantly advance the performance metrics of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of advanced vacuum technologies for extending plasma pulse duration on EAST

Advanced vacuum technologies, including pumping, fueling and wall conditioning, have been successfully developed or upgraded to efficiently control the fuel and impurity particles to extend the plasma pulse duration in the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST). To improve the particle exhaust rate cryopumps with a 60% increase in pumping speed and ∼2 times increase in saturation capacity have been developed, and molecular pumps with a ∼30% increase in pumping speed have been upgraded. In order to monitor the molecular pump status while avoiding bearing faults and overload accidents, a fault detection system has been built which can offer an early warning to avoid more losses within the fusion device. A series of fueling technologies have been developed including gas injection system, supersonic molecular beam injector, pellet injector (PI), massive gas injector and shattered pellet injector, installed at the midplane and divertor positions at different ports to improve fueling uniformity and efficiency. Meanwhile, routine wall conditioning such as electric and hot N 2 baking, ion cyclotron wall conditioning and glow discharge cleaning have been successfully developed to remove the impurity particles from the inner component and materials. The low Z material wall coating and real-time powder injection during plasma discharge are also designed and applied to further improve particle control capability. Finally, by using these advanced vacuum related technologies, good vacuum (<2 × 10 −6 Pa) and wall conditions are realized, and the fuel and impurity particles can be effectively and stably controlled, which promotes the achievement of the record plasma of ∼1056 s pulse duration with the line-averaged electron density of 1.8 × 10 19 m −3 on EAST. They provide a very important reference for vacuum system design and operation for future fusion devices.

EAST↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mortality among workers at the Rocky Flats Plant, 1951–2017

The Rocky Flats (RFs) Plant operated from 1951–1989 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear complex. Its primary mission was weapons component fabrication, whereby workers were potentially exposed to radioactive and non-radioactive hazards. RF worker mortality was compared to the general population, and dose-response relationships between mortality and radiation organ doses were examined. RF workers first employed between 1951 and 1979 for ⩾30 d were identified (n = 9397). Vital status was determined using national and state death records up to 2017. Organ doses from external photons and neutrons irritation and internalised plutonium (Pu), americium (Am), and uranium (U) were modelled as cumulative lagged total doses per year. Beryllium exposure was evaluated as an effect modifier using data from the DOE Nationwide Beryllium Medical Program. Statistical analyses included standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), Cox proportional hazard models, and excess relative risk (ERR) models. Approximately 53.2% of workers were deceased by the end of the study. Nearly 90% were monitored for radiation exposure, with a mean weighted absorbed dose of 59.0 mGy for the lungs. Nearly 45% of workers had intakes of alpha-particle emitting radionuclides, and 46.7% were monitored for neutrons. Leading causes of death included ischemic heart disease (n = 999) and lung cancer (n = 361). The highest SMRs were observed for berylliosis (SMR: 176.9; 95% CI: 76.2, 348.7; n < 10) and asbestosis (SMR: 4.65; 95% CI: 2.23, 8.55; n = 10). Dose-response analyses showed no statistical increase in risk from low-dose radiation including lung cancer (ERR per 100 mGy: −0.02; 95% CI: −0.11, 0.08; n = 361) and Parkinson’s disease (ERR per 100 mGy: 0.13; 95% CI: −0.26, 0.31; n = 57). Approximately 45% of workers were monitored for beryllium, with a weak non-significant indication of effect modification for lung cancer risk. The RF cohort showed no evidence of a statistically significant increase in mortality from occupational radiation exposure. However, this study was limited by low statistical power, which inhibits the ability to detect effects. Future pooling of Million Person Study (MPS) cohorts will provide further insights, particularly regarding Pu as a carcinogen.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identification of drug repurposing candidates for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using electronic health records: a retrospective cohort study

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with a life expectancy of only 3–5 years and few approved treatments. To identify drug repurposing candidates for the treatment of ALS, we analysed the electronic health records (EHRs) of a large cohort of military veterans with ALS. We analysed the EHRs of individuals in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) database who were diagnosed with ALS between Jan 1, 2009 and Dec 31, 2019 to assess medication effects. Individuals without recorded prescriptions after the date of diagnosis were excluded. Two sets of criteria were applied to ascertain exposure. Exposure criteria A were met if the dispense date or the end date of the medication was within 12 months of ALS diagnosis and the end date was at least 6 months after the dispense date. Exposure criteria B were met if there were at least two dispenses within 6 months before diagnosis and 12 months after diagnosis. Propensity score-matched control groups were generated on the basis of confounders included in the EHR, with methodology of potential outcomes used to infer treatment effects. The primary outcome was death. A standard Cox proportional hazards analysis was done to assess association with survival. Survival was defined as the time from diagnosis date recorded in the EHR to death reported in the Department for Veterans Affairs Vital Status File. Follow-up survival time was censored on Dec 31, 2020, for those alive on this date. Downstream protein targets of drugs with clinically significant effects were analysed using the protein–protein interaction networks-based algorithm PathFX. The EHRs of 11 003 individuals with ALS in the VHA database were appropriate for analysis. 162 medications with treatment groups of 30 or more individuals were identified. Among these 162 medications, 27 were associated with statistically significant changes (≥0·1) in the hazard ratio (HR) for death. 18 of the medications were associated with a reduced HR for death (prolonged survival), and nine were associated with an increased HR for death (reduced survival). Drugs associated with reduced HR included HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (simvastatin, pravastatin, lovastatin, and atorvastatin), PDE5 inhibitors (vardenafil and sildenafil), and α-adrenergic antagonists (tamsulosin and terazosin). The medications associated with an increased HR were drugs used either in the management of clinical features of ALS associated with poor outcomes or in end-of-life care. PathFx analysis identified a complex of proteins interacting with several of the identified drugs. To our knowledge, this analysis is the largest EHR-based study for identifying drug repurposing candidates for ALS. We identified several drugs that warrant further assessment as therapeutic options in ALS, as well as a protein network complex that might serve as a therapeutic target for ALS.

Reimer, Richard J. [Stanford Univ., CA (United Sta↗

DOE OSTI2025

Paths to superheavy nuclei

This document summarizes the discussions and outcomes of the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) Theory Alliance topical program ‘The path to Superheavy Isotopes’ held in June 2024 at FRIB. Its content is non-exhaustive, reflecting topics chosen and discussed by the participants. The program aimed to assess the current status of theory in superheavy nuclei (SHN) research and identify necessary theoretical developments to guide experimental programs and determine fruitful production mechanisms. This report details the intersection of SHN research with other fields, provides an overview of production mechanisms and theoretical models, discusses future needs in theory and experiment, explores other potential avenues for SHN synthesis, and highlights the importance of building a strong theory community in this area.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Expression of a Bacterial Trehalose 6-Phosphate Synthase Gene otsA in Camelina sativa Seeds Promotes the Channelling of Carbon Towards Oil Accumulation

Improving seed oil yield is essential for developing Camelina sativa as a sustainable biofuel crop. Fatty acid synthesis depends on the production of acetyl-CoA from photosynthetically derived sugars. Trehalose 6-phosphate (T6P), a proxy for sucrose availability, can link sugar status to plant growth and development. Synthesised by trehalose 6-phosphate synthase (TPS) from UDP-glucose and glucose-6-phosphate, T6P plays a regulatory role in metabolism. Our previous studies on Arabidopsis transgenic lines constitutively expressing the E. coli otsA (encoding TPS) showed increased T6P levels and seed triacylglycerol, along with stunted growth. In the present study we express otsA in camelina under the control of a seed-specific Phaseolin promoter. Seeds of the resulting transgenic lines accumulated high levels of T6P, and a 15%–20% increase in total fatty acids and triacylglycerol compared to wild-type. Molecular analysis showed the transgenic seeds had reduced SnRK1 activity, elevated WRI1 protein levels, and increased the levels of WRI1 and its target genes, along with enhanced rates of fatty acid synthesis that increased seed weights relative to wild type. Notably, the increase in oil did not affect seed protein levels but did reduce the soluble metabolite fraction. Crucially, seed-specific expression of otsA mitigated the growth defects associated with constitutive otsA expression, and the transgenic lines showed normal seed development and germination. These findings demonstrate that targeted T6P modulation via seed-specific otsA expression is an effective metabolic engineering strategy to boost oil production in camelina and potentially in other oilseed crops and bioenergy crops such as energycane, sorghum and miscanthus.

Lipids↗

DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗