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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves

We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essential climate elements needed to undertake building simulations. The datasets contain typical and extreme weather years in the EnergyPlus weather file (EPW) format and multiyear projections in comma-separated value (CSV) format for three periods: historical (2001–2020), future mid-term (2041–2060), and future long-term (2081–2100). The datasets were generated from projections of one regional climate model, which were bias-corrected using multiyear observational data for each city. The methodology used makes the datasets among the first to incorporate complex changes in the future climate for the frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme temperatures. These datasets, created within the IEA EBC Annex 80 “Resilient Cooling for Buildings”, are ready to be used for different types of building adaptation and resilience studies to climate change and heatwaves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate-risk management

People around the world seek climate-risk information to guide their decisions. For instance, projections about future flood risk inform where households choose to live, how lenders manage credit risks, and which communities receive federal funding. Yet data limitations and fundamental validation challenges raise important concerns about the reliability of such projections. The principles of transparency and reusability help address these concerns by enabling scrutiny of assumptions and methods, development of foundational data and tools, and consistent application of evaluation standards. While there is ongoing debate about how much transparency commercial climate-risk services should provide, many expect non-commercial actors to lead the way on operationalizing transparency and reusability to fulfill their knowledge-building role in the climate-risk ecosystem. However, despite prominent success stories, we find a substantial gap between principles and practice: only four percent of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate-risk studies in recent years fully share their data and code despite this being a widely accepted minimum standard for transparency. We highlight low-cost measures that non-commercial researchers can take now to improve transparency and reusability. We also emphasize that transformative progress requires substantial investment, cross-sector collaboration, and careful consideration of tradeoffs, data rights, and multiple perspectives on equity. We hope this perspective accelerates both immediate actions and longer-term conversations to improve the ability of science to effectively support timely, evidence-based, and sound climate-risk management.

Open Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Human–Earth system interactions under climate change

This special issue, titled ‘Focus on human–Earth system interactions under climate change,’ compiles cutting-edge research that deepens our understanding of the complex feedback mechanisms between anthropogenic activities and Earth system processes in the context of a changing climate (figure 1). The featured articles employ a diverse array of methodologies—including field studies, remote sensing, modeling, and socio-ecological analyses—to explore these interconnections. A unifying theme across these contributions is the imperative to bridge disciplinary divides, integrating physical Earth sciences with social sciences to fully capture the spectrum of human-Earth system interactions. Key topics addressed the impacts of human activities on natural systems, encompassing land-use change and water resource management on biogeochemistry, climate dynamics, and feedback on the climate system and socioeconomics from local to global scales under a changing climate.

Li, Huidong [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate models show colorado drying sooner and with greater certainty east of the continental divide

Many studies have examined the aridity of the Colorado River Basin and the possible impacts of climate change which could further strain already over-allocated water resources in the region. Fewer studies have examined the multiple Colorado Rocky Mountain headwater regions specifically. This is especially true of areas East of the Continental Divide, despite water originating there being critical to cities and agriculture in Eastern Colorado and further downstream. This paper explores and compares drying trends in the Eastern and Western Colorado Rocky Mountains using single-model initial-condition large ensembles from ten global climate models. The use of multiple models allows us to identify signals that are consistent across different physics parameterizations, model grids, and other model intricacies. The large ensembles also allow us to quantify the time of emergence of these climate change signals--that is, when did (or when will) the long term change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses exceed the internal variability of the climate system. Consistent with previous studies, we find evidence of drying on both sides of the Continental Divide. That drying is more pronounced, occurs sooner, and is more consistent across global climate models in the East, however, highlighting the region’s importance despite generally receiving less attention than the West.

Rugg, Allyson↗
DOE OSTI2026

The biogeography of soil and airborne fungi in the Southwestern USA in relation to climate and vegetation

To assess how fungal dispersal might respond to climate change, we examined how climate and geography influence the regional distribution of fungi in soil and air. Specifically, we hypothesized that neighboring fungal communities should be more similar than distant communities (i.e. spatially autocorrelated) and that fungal dispersal should be more limited in soil than in air. We collected soil and air samples from 60 sites across five states in the Southwestern USA. Then, we sequenced the ITS2 region to identify fungal taxa in each sample. Next, we used distance-based redundancy analysis to partition variation in fungal community composition between climate variables and spatial structure. Fungi were indeed spatially autocorrelated. Moreover, precipitation, maximum vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture were significantly related to fungal community composition in soils. In comparison, only precipitation was significantly related to community composition in the air. After accounting for climate, the strength of spatial autocorrelation did not differ significantly in soilborne versus airborne fungi. Dispersal limitation was evident in soilborne fungi at short distances (<100 km) and was not observed at any distance in airborne fungi. Altogether, climate may influence which fungal taxa are present in soil and air, and fungi could feasibly wind disperse over regional scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate warming enhances biodiversity and stability of grassland soil phosphorus-cycling microbial communities

Abstract Climate warming poses significant challenges to global phosphorus sustainability, an essential component of Earth biogeochemistry cycling and water-food-energy nexus. Despite the crucial role of polyphosphate-accumulating organism as key functional microbial agents in phosphorus cycling, the impacts of global climate warming on polyphosphate accumulating organism communities remain largely enigmatic. This study investigates the effects of climate warming on the taxonomic, network, and functional profiles of soil bacterial polyphosphate-accumulating organisms, leveraging fluorescence-activated cell sorting and single-cell Raman spectroscopy. Climate warming enhances both taxonomic and functional biodiversity of polyphosphate-accumulating organisms via biotic interactions and environmental filtering, with observed functionality-biodiversity relationships supporting the functional redundancy theory. Furthermore, polyphosphate-accumulating organism network complexity and stability rise under warming with strengthened positive relationships, supporting stress gradient hypothesis and the belief that complexity begets stability. Finally, polyphosphate-accumulating organisms are significantly correlated to key ecosystem functioning in carbon and phosphorus cycling under warming. Our study suggests that preserving polyphosphate-accumulating organism communities is crucial for maintaining soil ecosystem functioning and sustainable phosphorus management in a warming world and opens avenues for predicting the responses of other functional microbial groups to climate change, beneficially or maliciously.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Eddy Covariance Towers, Field Measurements, and the MEMS 2 Ecosystem Model Improves Confidence in the Climate Impacts of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage

ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are required if the effects of climate change are to be reversed over the next century. However, BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty. We place these net ecosystem carbon balance forcings in the context of associated radiative forcings from changes to soil N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes, land surface albedo, embedded fossil fuel use, and geologically stored carbon. Results from long term eddy covariance measurements, a soil and plant carbon inventory, and the MEMS 2 process‐based ecosystem model all agree that establishing perennials such as switchgrass or mixed prairie on former cropland resulted in net negative radiative forcing (i.e., global cooling) of −26.5 to −39.6 fW m −2 over 100 years. Establishing these perennials on former grassland sites had similar climate mitigation impacts of −19.3 to −42.5 fW m −2 . However, the largest climate mitigation came from establishing corn for BECCS on former cropland or grassland, with radiative forcings from −38.4 to −50.5 fW m −2 , due to its higher plant productivity and therefore more geologically stored carbon. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each method for quantifying the field scale climate impacts of BECCS and show that utilizing multiple methods can increase confidence in the final radiative forcing estimates.

Falvo, Grant [Department of Plant, Soil and Microb↗
DOE OSTI2024

New York State Climate Impacts Assessment Chapter 01: Introduction

Abstract New York State's climate is changing. Temperatures are rising, precipitation is increasing, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. Over time, these changes are projected to worsen. The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment provides a science‐based analysis of what to expect from climate change in New York. Working with partners across the state, the team assembled to produce this assessment reviewed the latest science and modeling to project and characterize what New York State's climate is likely to look like in the future and how this will affect natural systems, society, and various sectors of the economy. The assessment will enable decision‐makers at all levels—from individual residents, businesses, and landowners to municipal and state government agencies—to better understand and make informed choices about how to plan and prepare for climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dependence of tropical cyclone seeds and climate sensitivity on tropical cloud response

Projections of future tropical cyclone frequency are uncertain, ranging from a slight increase to a considerable decrease according to climate models. Estimation of how much the Earth’s surface temperature warms in response to greenhouse gas increase, quantified by effective climate sensitivity, is also uncertain. These two uncertainties have historically been studied independently as they concern different scales: One quantifies the extreme weather and the other the mean climate. Here, we show that these two uncertainties are not independent and are both influenced by the response of tropical clouds to warming. Across climate models, we show an anticorrelation between shortwave cloud radiative feedback and changes in the frequency of seed vortices, a prevalent type of tropical cyclone precursors. We further show an anticorrelation between effective climate sensitivity and tropical cyclone frequency changes, suggesting that global tropical cyclone frequency tends to decrease more substantially in models with larger temperature increase.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗
DOE OSTI2024

E3SM: Improved Climate Prediction with Exascale Capability

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is an ongoing, state-of-the-science earth system modeling, simulation, and prediction effort that optimizes Department of Energy (DOE) computing resources to meet the science needs of the nation and the agency’s mission objectives. Climate simulation has become a proven tool for identifying and quantifying the impacts of climate change, but even greater accuracy is required at all levels to improve forecast precision. Understanding the impact of climate change on global and regional water cycles is one of the highest priorities and most difficult challenges in climate change prediction. As part of a subproject of DOE’s Exascale Computing Project, a multidisciplinary team including geophysical and computational scientists developed a multiscale modeling framework (MMF) to refine cloud representation in E3SM climate simulation on GPU accelerated supercomputers, making higher resolution, more computationally efficient predictions possible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap (Second Edition)

The first ICEF Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap was released in December 2023. Since that time, attention to artificial intelligence (AI) has continued to grow at a rapid pace. Tens of billions of dollars have poured into AI projects, policymakers around the world have considered new AI policies, and OpenAI reports that each month more than 200 million people now use ChatGPT. Signs of a changing climate continue to grow as well. Based on global average temperatures, July 22, 2024 was the warmest day ever recorded; 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded; and the 10 warmest years on record are the past 10 years. Yet global emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb. Can AI help cut emissions of greenhouse gases? This Roadmap explores that question. In this second edition of the Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap, a team of 25 co-authors builds on last year’s roadmap—comprehensively updating all old chapters, adding six new chapters and offering 5–10 specific, actionable recommendations in each chapter. Our goal is to provide a useful resource for experts and non-experts alike. In Part I of this Roadmap, we provide brief introductions to both AI and climate change. In Part II, we explore eight sectors in which AI is helping respond to climate change and could do much more. In Part III, we explore crosscutting issues. We close with findings and recommendations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Indirect climate impacts of the Hunga eruption

Injection of sulfur and water vapour by the Hunga volcanic eruption significantly altered chemical composition and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Yet, whether the eruption could also affect surface climate, especially via indirect pathways, remains poorly understood. Here we investigate these effects using large ensembles of simulations with the CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system model, incorporating interactive chemistry and aerosols in both coupled ocean and atmosphere-only configurations. We find some statistically significant extratropical regional climate responses to the eruption driven by circulation changes; these are partially linked to the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its associated teleconnections, and to perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres. The stratospheric anomalies affect surface climate through modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (up to three boreal winters following the eruption) and the Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2023. The latter is partly related to a concurrent reduction in Antarctic ozone, as increased stratospheric aerosols and water vapor reach the polar vortex. Our study suggests that the eruption could have had a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and discusses the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur. However, the results also highlight that this forcing is relatively weak compared to interannual variability, and is subject to model uncertainties in the representation of key processes. More research is thus needed before definitive statements on the role of the eruption in contributing to surface climate and weather events in the following years are made.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seventh Oregon Climate Assessment

Consistent with its charge under Oregon House Bill 3543, the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) conducts a biennial assessment of the state of climate change science, including biological, physical, and social science, as it relates to Oregon and the likely effects of climate change on Oregon. This seventh Oregon Climate Assessment, which builds on the previous assessments, is structured with the goal of supporting the state's mitigation planning for natural hazards and implementation of the Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conceptualizing Coproduced Climate Research as Care: Practical Lessons Learned With Women Farmland‐Owners in the Central Midwest United States

ABSTRACT This article's team of interdisciplinary researchers and conservation educator‐practitioners learned with, and from, a group of women farmland‐owners regarding how to conceptualize coproduced climate research by putting “care” at the center—care for the soil, for relationships, for data. We outline the creation and evolution of a storytelling‐based conservation program that allowed our diverse group to discover how the language of care could integrate climate analysis, conservation, and relationship‐building to foster tangible solutions. As a result of the project, the women landowners took actions that supported social‐environmental resilience—from planting cover crops to fostering watershed/neighborhood relationships. Our diverse group of women landowners and researchers had very different experiences with conservation and often very different views on climate change itself, but, through storytelling and the language of care, we not only coproduced knowledge but also created relationships and action. This article outlines specific practices for how to inflect a coproduced process for climate resilience with practices that promote care and yield action projects.

Shenk, Linda [Department of English Iowa State Uni↗