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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future

Electrification and renewables deployment efforts are amplifying the interdependence of the climate and energy systems. Increases in climate model resolution, which is now approaching that of reanalysis datasets and operational weather forecast models, present a unique opportunity to use future climate projections for energy infrastructure planning. In this Perspective, we review recent developments in high-resolution climate modeling, which have been driven by increased computing power and advanced software tools. We then look ahead to discuss how high-resolution climate data can be used to plan for a renewable-dependent future, and envision a unified climate-energy model framework that captures the two-way feedbacks between these interdependent systems.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1988

NASA Mars project - Evolution of climate and atmosphere

The scientific highlights of the Mars: Evolution of its Climate and Atmosphere (MECA) study project are reviewed and some of the important issues in Martian climate research that remain unresolved are discussed.

Clifford, Stephen M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Downscaling Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model Precipitation Simulations over Africa Using Bias-Corrected Lateral and Lower Boundary Conditions

A prequel study showed that dynamic downscaling using a regional climate model (RCM) over Africa improved the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model (GISS AOGCM: ModelE) simulation of June–September rainfall patterns over Africa. The current study applies bias corrections to the lateral and lower boundary data from the AOGCM driving the RCM, based on the comparison of a 30-year simulation to the actual climate. The analysis examines the horizontal pattern of June–September total accumulated precipitation, the time versus latitude evolution of zonal mean West Africa (WA) precipitation (showing monsoon onset timing), and the latitude versus altitude cross-section of zonal winds over WA (showing the African Easterly Jet and the Tropical Easterly Jet). The study shows that correcting for excessively warm AOGCM Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) improves the simulation of key features, whereas applying 30-year mean bias corrections to atmospheric variables driving the RCM at the lateral boundaries does not improve the RCM simulations. We suggest that AOGCM climate projections for Africa should benefit from downscaling by nesting an RCM that has demonstrated skill in simulating African climate, driven with bias-corrected SST.

West African monsoon↗
NASA NTRS2018

On the Increasing Importance of Air-Sea Exchanges in a Thawing Arctic: A Review

Forty years ago, climate scientists predicted the Arctic to be on of Earth’s most sensitive climate regions and thus extremely vulnerable to increased CO2. The rapid and unprecedented changes observed in the Arctic confirm this prediction, which has consequences that ripple through the global climate system. Especially significant, sea ice loss is altering the exchange of mass, energy, and momentum between the atmosphere and Arctic Ocean. A thick, extensive, and multiyear ice cover has historically limited such exchanges, however, the summertime Arctic Ocean is expected to be nearly ice‐free within 15 years increasing the potential for air‐sea exchange. Changes in surface turbulent fluxes can alter the Arctic surface energy budget, sea ice, clouds, boundary layer temperature and humidity, and atmospheric and oceanic circulations. This paper reviews current knowledge of surface turbulent fluxes across the Arctic Ocean and the known effects on climate. We conclude that Arctic air‐sea energy exchanges are becoming an increasingly consequential factor driving Arctic climate. Arctic Ocean surface turbulent energy exchanges are not smooth and steady but rather irregular and episodic, considering this nature of air‐sea energy exchanges is essential for improving Arctic climate projections. New field data focusing on the episodic nature of air‐sea exchange will accelerate our understanding of Arctic climate change.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Wetland Hydroperiod and Soil Moisture with Remote Sensing: A Demonstration for the NASA Plum Brook Station Year 2

Assist with the evaluation and measuring of wetlands hydroperiod at the Plum Brook Station using multi-source remote sensing data as part of a larger effort on projecting climate change-related impacts on the station's wetland ecosystems. MTRI expanded on the multi-source remote sensing capabilities to help estimate and measure hydroperiod and the relative soil moisture of wetlands at NASA's Plum Brook Station. Multi-source remote sensing capabilities are useful in estimating and measuring hydroperiod and relative soil moisture of wetlands. This is important as a changing regional climate has several potential risks for wetland ecosystem function. The year two analysis built on the first year of the project by acquiring and analyzing remote sensing data for additional dates and types of imagery, combined with focused field work. Five deliverables were planned and completed: (1) Show the relative length of hydroperiod using available remote sensing datasets, (2) Date linked table of wetlands extent over time for all feasible non-forested wetlands, (3) Utilize LIDAR data to measure topographic height above sea level of all wetlands, wetland to catchment area radio, slope of wetlands, and other useful variables (4), A demonstration of how analyzed results from multiple remote sensing data sources can help with wetlands vulnerability assessment; and (5) A MTRI style report summarizing year 2 results.

Brooks, Colin↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Wetland Hydroperiod and Soil Moisture With Remote Sensing: A Demonstration for the NASA Plum Brook Station Year 2

Primary Goal: Assist with the evaluation and measuring of wetlands hydroperiod at the PlumBrook Station using multi-source remote sensing data as part of a larger effort on projecting climate change-related impacts on the station's wetland ecosystems. MTRI expanded on the multi-source remote sensing capabilities to help estimate and measure hydroperiod and the relative soil moisture of wetlands at NASA's Plum Brook Station. Multi-source remote sensing capabilities are useful in estimating and measuring hydroperiod and relative soil moisture of wetlands. This is important as a changing regional climate has several potential risks for wetland ecosystem function. The year two analysis built on the first year of the project by acquiring and analyzing remote sensing data for additional dates and types of imagery, combined with focused field work. Five deliverables were planned and completed: 1) Show the relative length of hydroperiod using available remote sensing datasets 2) Date linked table of wetlands extent over time for all feasible non-forested wetlands 3) Utilize LIDAR data to measure topographic height above sea level of all wetlands, wetland to catchment area radio, slope of wetlands, and other useful variables 4) A demonstration of how analyzed results from multiple remote sensing data sources can help with wetlands vulnerability assessment 5) A MTRI style report summarizing year 2 results. This report serves as a descriptive summary of our completion of these our deliverables. Additionally, two formal meetings were held with Larry Liou and Amanda Sprinzl to provide project updates and receive direction on outputs. These were held on 2/26/15 and 9/17/15 at the Plum Brook Station. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a multivariate statistical technique used to identify dominant spatial and temporal backscatter signatures. PCA reduces the information contained in the temporal dataset to the first few new Principal Component (PC) images. Some advantages of PCA include the ability to filter out temporal autocorrelation and reduce speckle to the higher order PC images. A PCA was performed using ERDAS Imagine on a time series of PALSAR dates. Hydroperiod maps were created by separating the PALSAR dates into two date ranges, 2006-2008 and 2010, and performing an unsupervised classification on the PCAs.

Brooks, Colin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Remote Sensing of Cloud Top Height from SEVIRI: Analysis of Eleven Current Retrieval Algorithms

The role of clouds remains the largest uncertainty in climate projections. They influence solar and thermal radiative transfer and the earth's water cycle. Therefore, there is an urgent need for accurate cloud observations to validate climate models and to monitor climate change. Passive satellite imagers measuring radiation at visible to thermal infrared (IR) wavelengths provide a wealth of information on cloud properties. Among others, the cloud top height (CTH) - a crucial parameter to estimate the thermal cloud radiative forcing - can be retrieved. In this paper we investigate the skill of ten current retrieval algorithms to estimate the CTH using observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) onboard Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). In the first part we compare ten SEVIRI cloud top pressure (CTP) data sets with each other. The SEVIRI algorithms catch the latitudinal variation of the CTP in a similar way. The agreement is better in the extratropics than in the tropics. In the tropics multi-layer clouds and thin cirrus layers complicate the CTP retrieval, whereas a good agreement among the algorithms is found for trade wind cumulus, marine stratocumulus and the optically thick cores of the deep convective system. In the second part of the paper the SEVIRI retrievals are compared to CTH observations from the Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) instruments. It is important to note that the different measurement techniques cause differences in the retrieved CTH data. SEVIRI measures a radiatively effective CTH, while the CTH of the active instruments is derived from the return time of the emitted radar or lidar signal. Therefore, some systematic differences are expected. On average the CTHs detected by the SEVIRI algorithms are 1.0 to 2.5 kilometers lower than CALIOP observations, and the correlation coefficients between the SEVIRI and the CALIOP data sets range between 0.77 and 0.90. The average CTHs derived by the SEVIRI algorithms are closer to the CPR measurements than to CALIOP measurements. The biases between SEVIRI and CPR retrievals range from −0.8 kilometers to 0.6 kilometers. The correlation coefficients of CPR and SEVIRI observations vary between 0.82 and 0.89. To discuss the origin of the CTH deviation, we investigate three cloud categories: optically thin and thick single layer as well as multi-layer clouds. For optically thick clouds the correlation coefficients between the SEVIRI and the reference data sets are usually above 0.95. For optically thin single layer clouds the correlation coefficients are still above 0.92. For this cloud category the SEVIRI algorithms yield CTHs that are lower than CALIOP and similar to CPR observations. Most challenging are the multi-layer clouds, where the correlation coefficients are for most algorithms between 0.6 and 0.8. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the SEVIRI retrievals for boundary layer clouds. While the CTH retrieval for this cloud type is relatively accurate, there are still considerable differences between the algorithms. These are related to the uncertainties and limited vertical resolution of the assumed temperature profiles in combination with the presence of temperature inversions, which lead to ambiguities in the CTH retrieval. Alternative approaches for the CTH retrieval of low clouds are discussed.

Hamann, U.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Spectral Dependence of MODIS Cloud Droplet Effective Radius Retrievals for Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

Low-level warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds cover large regions of Earth's surface. They have a significant role in Earth's radiative energy balance and hydrological cycle. Despite the fundamental role of low-level warm water clouds in climate, our understanding of these clouds is still limited. In particular, connections between their properties (e.g. cloud fraction, cloud water path, and cloud droplet size) and environmental factors such as aerosol loading and meteorological conditions continue to be uncertain or unknown. Modeling these clouds in climate models remains a challenging problem. As a result, the influence of aerosols on these clouds in the past and future, and the potential impacts of these clouds on global warming remain open questions leading to substantial uncertainty in climate projections. To improve our understanding of these clouds, we need continuous observations of cloud properties on both a global scale and over a long enough timescale for climate studies. At present, satellite-based remote sensing is the only means of providing such observations.

Cloud physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations

The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Intensity-duration-frequency curves↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Photoperiod Decelerates the Advance of Spring Phenology of Six Deciduous Tree Species under Climate Warming

Vegetation phenology in spring has substantially advanced under climate warming, consequently shifting the seasonality of ecosystem process and altering biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. However, whether and to what extent photoperiod (i.e., daylength) affects the phenological advancement is unclear, leading to large uncertainties in projecting future phenological changes. Here we examined the photoperiod effect on spring phenology at a regional scale using in situ observation of six deciduous tree species from the Pan European Phenological Network during 1980-2016. We disentangled the photoperiod effect from the temperature effect (i.e., forcing and chilling) by utilizing the unique topography of the northern Alps of Europe (i.e., varying daylength but uniform temperature distribution across latitudes) and examining phenological changes across latitudes. We found prominent photoperiod-induced shifts in spring leaf-out across latitudes (up to 1.7 daysper latitudinal degree). Photoperiod regulates spring phenology by delaying early leaf-out and advancing late leaf-out caused by temperature variations. Based on these findings, we proposed two phenological models that consider the photoperiod effect through different mechanisms and compared them with a chilling model. We found that photoperiod regulation would slow down the advance in spring leaf-out under projected climate warming and thus mitigate the increasing frost risk in spring that deciduous forests will face in the future. Our findings identify photoperiod as a critical but understudied factor influencing spring phenology, suggesting that the responses of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming are likely to be overestimated without adequately considering the photoperiod effect.

Lin Meng↗
NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS2018

Pliocene and Eocene Provide Best Analogs for Near-Future Climates

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2018

Identifying and Forecasting Potential Biophysical Risk Areas within a Tropical Mangrove Ecosystem Using Multi-Sensor Data

Mangroves are one of the most productive ecosystems known for provisioning of various ecosystem goods and services. They help in sequestering large amounts of carbon, protecting coastline against erosion, and reducing impacts of natural disasters such as hurricanes. Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary in Odisha harbors the second largest mangrove ecosystem in India. This study used Terra, Landsat and Sentinel-1 satellite data for spatio-temporal monitoring of mangrove forest within Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary between 2000 and 2016. Three biophysical parameters were used to assess mangrove ecosystem health: leaf chlorophyll (CHL), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). A long-term analysis of meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature was performed to determine an association between these parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics. The correlation between meteorological parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics enabled forecasting of mangrove health and productivity for year 2050 by incorporating IPCC projected climate data. A historical analysis of land cover maps was also performed using Landsat 5 and 8 data to determine changes in mangrove area estimates in years 1995, 2004 and 2017. There was a decrease in dense mangrove extent with an increase in open mangroves and agricultural area. Despite conservation efforts, the current extent of dense mangrove is projected to decrease up to 10% by the year 2050. All three biophysical characteristics including GPP, LAI and CHL, are projected to experience a net decrease of 7.7%, 20.83% and 25.96% respectively by 2050 compared to the mean annual value in 2016. This study will help the Forest Department, Government of Odisha in managing and taking appropriate decisions for conserving and sustaining the remaining mangrove forest under the changing climate and developmental activities.

Shanti Shrestha↗
NASA NTRS2002

Project to Interface Climate Modeling on Global and Regional Scales with Earth Observing (EOS) Observations

This ten-year NASA IDS project began in 1990. Its initial work plan adopted the NASA provided timeline that data would become available for new Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms beginning in 1995. Over its first phase, it was based at NCAR, which had submitted the original proposal and involved activities of a substantial number of co-investigators at NCAR who engaged in research over several areas related to the observations expected to be received from the EOS platforms. Their focus was the theme of use of EOS data for improving climate models for projecting global change. From the climate system viewpoint, the IDS addressed land, clouds-hydrological cycle, radiative fluxes and especially aerosol impacts, ocean and sea-ice, and stratosphere. Other research addressed issues of data assimilation, diagnostic analyses, and data set development from current satellite systems, especially use of SAR data for climate models.

Dickinson, Robert E.↗