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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forecast of Wildfire Potential Across California USA Using a Transformer

Wildfires are a major issue facing the United States, a matter further exacerbated by an ever-changing climate. In California alone, wildfires are responsible for billions of dollars in damages and take lives each year. Accurately predicting fire danger conditions allows preparation awareness before wildfires start. Transformers are a class of deep learning models designed to identify patterns in sequential datasets. In recent years, transformers have gained popularity through their impressive performance in natural language processing and other applications of signal recognition. This analysis demonstrates the ability of a transformer with a residual connection to forecast fire danger potential over the state of California. Wildland fire potential index (WFPI) maps collected from the US Geological Survey database from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2023 were used to tune, train and evaluate the transformer. Meteorological inputs (provided by Daymet daily weather and climatological summaries), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), and outputs from the Scott and Burgman fire behavior fuel models (to characterize maps of fuel types), were used as inputs. Our results show that a transformer can effectively emulate the US Forest Service modeled WFPI maps of California USA for four week long forecasts over the month of July, 2023, with correlations ranging from 0.85 – 0.98.

Limber, Russell [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulative Prediction of Solar Illuminance and Application of the Du-Sharples Model in Estimating Adapted Daylighting Metrics for an Urban Environment

The practice of daylighting in indoor spaces can significantly reduce electricity consumption and carbon emissions, improve human productivity, and enhance mood and cognitive perception. This work discussed the recent developments in daylighting science and practice, computed the periodic variations in average diurnal daylight levels for each month, quantified in terms of global horizontal illuminance and diffuse horizontal illuminance, for Kolkata, India, a city with tropical wet and dry climate, with two empirical luminous efficacy models of estimating solar illuminance, and assessed daylighting metrics with the Du-Sharples model. A program was formulated that could compute and generate daylight data with monthly-hourly solar irradiation data and the Du-Sharples model was utilized to predict dirt-corrected daylighting metrics for three glazing transmittance values and five elemental carbon deposition levels on glazing material. The highest monthly average global horizontal illuminance is recorded in April (64.05 klx for Littlefair model and 66.82 klx for Muneer-Kinghorn model) and the highest monthly average diffuse horizontal illuminance is recorded in July (33.23 klx for Littlefair model and 30.63 klx for Muneer-Kinghorn model). Further, the computed yearly average global and diffuse horizontal illuminance levels agree well with a previous study that applied the Perez model. Yearly average horizontal work surface illuminance level remained >1.5 klx for window-towall area ratio >30 %. The approach adopted in this work and the temporal variation charts of computed exterior daylight level data may assist building service engineers, architects, and indoor lighting practitioners in making informed policy decisions at different stages of building planning.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R 2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m -2 ) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) (R 2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m -2 ). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R 2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.

Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of Geological Thermal Energy Storage for seasonal, grid-scale dispatching

Energy storage is essential for the decarbonization of the U.S. energy grid, especially with the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Geological thermal energy storage (GeoTES) has emerged as a promising long duration, grid scale solution, providing stability and security through flexible operations and valuable grid services. GeoTES utilizes subsurface reservoirs to store thermal energy for power generation and direct-use heating and cooling. This approach significantly enhances the use of low-temperature reservoirs, which would otherwise be unsuitable for geothermal power plants. It also aligns well with depleted oil and gas reservoirs, concentrating solar power, non-flexible renewables (photovoltaic and wind), and geothermal-related power cycles. Given the favorable marginal costs of GeoTES as storage duration increases, it becomes particularly competitive for seasonal, grid-scale dispatch, where few technologies are viable. This paper provides a comprehensive review of GeoTES systems and the research underpinning itsr development. This analysis begins by defining and categorizing the unique characteristics of thermal energy storage techniques, setting GeoTES apart from other technologies. The various components, configurations, subsurface characteristics, and modeling efforts that guide GeoTES development are then explored. Finally, challenges in GeoTES research, development, and deployment are discussed, along with mitigation strategies and lessons from related technologies. Beyond their economic benefits, GeoTES systems support grid resilience and decarbonize industrial processes. Their scalability, broad distribution, seasonal storage potential, and flexible dispatch capacity make GeoTES a valuable tool for expanding renewable energy deployment and addressing climate change.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Activity-based Informed Curtailment: Using Acoustics to Design and Validate Smart Curtailment to Reduce Risk to Bats at Wind Farms

Rapid expansion of renewable energy infrastructure is a key part of any global strategy to reduce the pace and severity of anthropogenic climate change, although the potential impacts of renewable energy infrastructure on wildlife are also becoming increasingly apparent. Bats appear vulnerable to population-level impacts from the cumulative effect of turbine-related fatalities at commercial wind energy facilities in North America, particularly as the industry continues to expand to meet renewable energy generation targets. Turbine curtailment is the most widely used and consistently effective method to reduce bat fatality rates and involves pitching turbine blades parallel to prevailing winds to restrict turbine rotation when turbines would otherwise be operating and capable of producing power. Recognizing the need to expand the wind industry while managing risk to bats highlights the need to understand and manage turbine-related impacts to bats more aggressively and strategically than the current use of blanket curtailment allows.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing bioenergy biofuel harvest: a comparative analysis of stepwise and integrated methods for economic and environmental sustainability

Switchgrass is a promising bioenergy feedstock due to its high biomass yield potential, adaptability to marginal lands, and low carbon intensity for feedstock production. However, accurate cost estimation and assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the energy-intensive harvesting process are essential for evaluating the sustainability of bioenergy. This study provides a comparative analysis of two harvesting methods: the Stepwise Method, which separates operations into multiple stages, and the Integrated Method, which combines mowing and raking into a single pass. The analysis was conducted under four scenarios based on field sizes and biomass yields. Using three years of field-scale switchgrass harvest data from 125 sites, GHG emissions, energy consumption, and harvesting costs were quantified using the GREET model and techno-economic analysis. Additionally, regression analysis identified key climate and operational factors affecting fuel consumption. The Stepwise method was the most cost-effective for large fields with high biomass yield, achieving the lowest harvesting costs ($37.70 per ton). In contrast, the Integrated Method performed better in small fields and low-yield conditions, reducing GHG emissions by 9 % and energy use by 5 %. Regression analysis confirmed that a larger field size reduced fuel consumption, while higher biomass yield and longer operational time increased fuel use. Maximum temperature also contributed to a slight increase in fuel consumption. Furthermore, these results provide actionable insights for optimizing harvesting strategies based on field-specific conditions and operational goals, contributing to the economic and environmental sustainability of bioenergy production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience and water security of forests in the western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled the hydrological effects of multi-decadal landscape-scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process-based hydrological model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from a distributed forest ecosystem model (LANDIS-II), we simulate the water resource impacts of forest management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration of the pre-colonial disturbance return interval in the central Sierra Nevada mountains. In a fully restored disturbance regime that includes fire, thinning, and insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total and 8%–14% in dry years. At sub-watershed scales (10–100 km2), thinning dense forests can increase streamflow by >20% in dry years. In a thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% of streamflow gains are attributable to decreased overstory rain and snow interception loss. Thinner forests can increase headwater peak flows, but reservoir-scale peak flows are almost exclusively influenced by climate. Uncertainty in future precipitation causes high uncertainty in future water yield, but the additional water yield attributable to forest disturbance is about five times less sensitive to annual precipitation uncertainty. This partial decoupling of the streamflow disturbance response from annual precipitation makes disturbance especially valuable for water supply during dry years. Our study can increase confidence in the water resource benefits of restoring historic forest disturbance frequencies in the central Sierra Nevada mountains, and our modeling framework is widely applicable to other forested mountain landscapes.

Boardman, Eli N. [University of Nevada, Reno, NV (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Processed Soil Respiration at the TRACE experimental Warming project, Aug 2015 - Sep 2017, Sabana, Luquillo, Puerto Rico

This data package contains processed measurements of soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) efflux collected using LI-COR LI-8100 soil respiration chambers at the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) located at the Sabana Field Research Station near Luquillo, Puerto Rico. The TRACE site is a mature, closed-canopy tropical wet forest within the Luquillo Experimental Forest. These data quantify soil surface CO₂ fluxes from both ambient (control) and experimentally warmed plots to evaluate how long-term soil warming affects belowground carbon cycling in tropical ecosystems. The data files include time-series tables of CO₂ flux (µmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹), soil temperature (°C), and ancillary environmental variables, stored in comma-separated values (CSV) format and viewable with any text editor, spreadsheet, or statistical software (e.g., R, Python, Excel). Associated metadata describe plot identifiers, measurement intervals, and processing steps. These data were generated to address the research question: How does sustained soil warming influence soil respiration and carbon flux dynamics in tropical wet forests?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska: Modeling Archive

The dataset is a model output used in a study that examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing hillslope-scale coupled surface and sub-surface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems. The dataset contain ecosys model outputs used in a study: Article Title - Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. It includes the data files (ten *.csv files) used in creating figures in the publication and three *.pdf files (user guide and two Supplementary Information documents).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bioenergy Cropping Reduces the Spatiotemporal Scaling of Soil Bacterial Biodiversity

Widespread bioenergy cropping can transform landscapes, strongly affecting biodiversity. However, the impact of bioenergy cropping on the spatiotemporal scaling of soil biodiversity remains virtually unknown, despite its profound implications for the functioning of the ecological community. Here, we investigated how bioenergy cropping influenced the spatiotemporal scaling of soil bacterial biodiversity in marginal soils (sandy loam and clay loam soils) in Oklahoma, USA. We detected strong, significant species-time-area relationships (STARs) and phylogenetic-time-area relationships (PTARs) in bacterial communities and their lineages, suggesting that STARs and PTARs exist in microbial ecology within the studied system. Also, spatiotemporal scaling rates (the slopes of STAR and PTAR models) varied substantially among bacterial lineages and were positively correlated with their 16S rRNA gene copy numbers, a genomic trait indicative of microbial growth potentials. Strikingly, bioenergy cropping significantly reduced spatiotemporal scaling rates by 6.8%-14.1%, with a more pronounced reduction observed in sandy loam soils, where those rates were significantly lower than in clay loam soils. The heterogeneity of soil phosphorus and carbon resulted in variations in bacterial spatiotemporal scaling rates. Collectively, our findings suggest that bioenergy cropping may alleviate rapid shifts in soil biodiversity across space and time, thereby stabilizing soil biodiversity and supporting its role as part of sustainable land management and climate mitigation strategies.

bacterial diversity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evidence for the existence and ecological relevance of fast-cycling mineral-associated organic matter

Longstanding theories and models classify mineral-associated organic matter as the large ( ~ 60%) but slow-cycling and persistent portion of soil organic matter. Strong physico-chemical interactions and diffusion limitations restrict the turnover of mineral-associated organic matter, allowing carbon and nitrogen bound therein to persist in soil for as long as centuries to millennia. However, mineral-associated organic matter is a chemically and functionally diverse pool with a substantial portion cycling at relatively fast (i.e., minutes to years) timescales. Despite a growing body of evidence for the heterogenous and multi-pool nature of mineral-associated organic matter, we lack consensus on how to conceptualize and directly quantify fast-cycling mineral-associated organic matter and its ecological significance. We demonstrate that the dynamic qualities of fast-cycling mineral-associated organic matter vary based on 1) the chemistry of the mineral particles and organic matter, 2) the complex set of interactions between organic matter and the mineral matrix, and 3) the presence and strength of destabilizing forces that lead to decomposition or loss of mineral-associated organic matter (i.e., plant-microbe interactions, agricultural intensification, and climate change). Finally, we discuss potential implications and research opportunities for how we measure, manage, and model the dynamic subfraction of this otherwise persistent pool of soil organic matter.

Biological and medical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous United States

The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (−70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (−33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (−7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (−1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO 2 fertilization effect (+69 ± 12 teragrams of carbon per year) was insufficient to maintain the carbon sink strength. Our framework reveals key paths of carbon loss, with implications for carbon budget and energy policies in the United States and beyond.

Liu, Jinxun [US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (Uni↗