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At least 127 records · Page 7

Satellite Estimates of Surface Short-wave Fluxes: Issues of Implementation

Surface solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface is the primary forcing function of the land surface energy and water cycle. Therefore, there is a need for information on this parameter, preferably, at global scale. Satellite based estimates are now available at accuracies that meet the demands of many scientific objectives. Selection of an approach to estimate such fluxes requires consideration of trade-offs between the use of multi-spectral observations of cloud optical properties that are more difficult to implement at large scales, and methods that are simplified but easier to implement. In this study, an evaluation of such trade-offs will be performed. The University of Maryland Surface Radiation Model (UMD/SRB) has been used to reprocess five years of GOES-8 satellite observations over the United States to ensure updated calibration and improved cloud detection over snow. The UMD/SRB model was subsequently modified to allow input of information on aerosol and cloud optical depth with information from independent satellite sources. Specifically, the cloud properties from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Satellite Data Analysis Program (Minnis et al., 1995) are used to drive the modified version of the model to estimate surface short-wave fluxes over the Southern Great Plain ARM sites for a twelve month period. The auxiliary data needed as model inputs such as aerosol optical depth, spectral surface albedo, water vapor and total column ozone amount were kept the same for both versions of the model. The estimated shortwave fluxes are evaluated against ground observations at the ARM Central Facility and four satellite ARM sites. During summer, the estimated fluxes based on cloud properties derived from the multi-spectral approach were in better agreement with ground measurements than those derived from the UMD/SRB model. However, in winter, the fluxes derived with the UMD/SRB model were in better agreement with ground observations than those estimated from cloud properties provided by the ARM Satellite Data Analysis Program. During the transition periods, the results were comparable.

Wang, H.↗

Using XR for Improving Scientific Discovery With Numerical Weather Models

Earth science (ES) digital twins will help us understand the complex interactions and interrelationships that make up our Earth system and the impacts of earth science phenomena on it. Our work addresses two underdeveloped areas in current ES digital twin work: improving the understanding and interaction with ES model outputs by using Virtual and Mixed Reality (XR) tools and improving the non-intuitive mapping of continuous ES natural phenomena to gridded reference frames in current numerical models. Traditionally, scientists working on ES view and analyze the results of calculated or measured observables with static 1-dimensional (1D), 2D or 3D plots displayed on flat computer screens or paper. Using such limited mediums, it can be very difficult to identify, track and understand the evolution of key features due to poor viewing angles and the nature of flat computer screens. In addition, numerical models, such as the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ES model, are almost exclusively formulated, visualized and analyzed in an Eulerian reference frame with fixed grid points in space and time. However, ES phenomena such as convective clouds, hurricanes and wildfire smoke plumes are visualized and analyzed in a Lagrangian reference frame: therefore it is often difficult and unnatural to understand these phenomena in relation to each other, visualized either in an Eulerian or Lagrangian context. In 3D visualizations, data generally takes one of three forms: gridded (e.g., voxelized) data, where space is divided into regions; point clouds, where data is represented as a set of points; and meshes, where objects are rendered as surfaces composed of small polygons (usually triangles). A gridded, Eulerian reference frame has been the default representation for the 2D visual analysis of atmospheric data in part because the numerical methods used to generate atmospheric model data in the first place use a gridded approach, with equations defining the relationships between the physical variables in each of a grid's cells across successive timesteps. In our work, we are particularly interested in data from GEOS. Another reason why gridded representations tend to be used for visualizing data from such models is because trajectories are difficult to interpret from representations on 2D surfaces, due to line-of-sight ambiguity. Instead of a fixed grid from GEOS, we embed a trajectory model to simulate particles' movement throughout a GEOS run. We then ingest these particle trajectories as animated point clouds with a NASA open source XR toolkit, the Mixed Reality Exploration Toolkit (MRET), and merge GEOS data with ES phenomena data onto one combined visualization that the user can intuitively interact with. Efficient rendering of arbitrarily large point clouds is an ongoing challenge being addressed by the computer science community, with the GPU-based optimizations and efficient GPU memory utilization a common theme of recent advances, especially for XR, where sustained high frame rate is mandatory to save the user from suffering due to simulation sickness. In this work, we describe and evaluate our progress in choosing and implementing appropriate methods for rendering arbitrarily large point clouds within MRET for XR. While tracking the XR headset enables the immersion of a user within a 3D scene of a data visualization, tracking of XR handheld controllers or user’s hands enables us to implement intuitive user interactions with the visualized datasets. Conventional tools require a user working with an ES visualization to conduct many interactions to commit their intended selections or manipulations with a visualized dataset; for example to specify a set of points in 3D space. Doing so in a 2D flat screen interface has traditionally required specifying a set of points in three distinct 2D coordinate systems (XY, XZ, and YZ), which is cumbersome. In other scientific domains, it has been shown that specifying or selecting a location or volume in XR using handheld controllers or tracked hands allows for greater speed and accuracy. We anticipate the same will hold true for atmospheric data, and we will share initial results of measuring the utility of such an interface. Notably, as the data being visualized is generated by GEOS as a prediction based on initial conditions, an intended application of our tool is to serve as part of an iterative feedback loop. Through XR, a scientist will review and manipulate a GEOS model run, modifying the conditions as needed to do subsequent runs of GEOS. Thereby, XR-based improvements to speed and accuracy of 3D tagging of points minimizes the effort required by both the scientist and the computer cluster conducting the necessary calculations.

Thomas Grubb↗

Trade-Wind Cloudiness and Climate

Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection (MCC) consists of mesoscale cloud patches separated by narrow clear regions. Strong radiative cooling occurs at the cloud top. A dry two-dimensional Bousinesq model is used to study the effects of cloud-top cooling on convection. Wide updrafts and narrow downdrafts are used to indicate the asymmetric circulations associated with the mesoscale cloud patches. Based on the numerical results, a conceptual model was constructed to suggest a mechanism for the formation of closed MCC over cool ocean surfaces. A new method to estimate the radioative and evaporative cooling in the entrainment layer of a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer has been developed. The method was applied to a set of Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) results and to a set of tethered-balloon data obtained during FIRE. We developed a statocumulus-capped marine mixed layer model which includes a parameterization of drizzle based on the use of a predicted Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) number concentration. We have developed, implemented, and tested a very elaborate new stratiform cloudiness parameterization for use in GCMs. Finally, we have developed a new, mechanistic parameterization of the effects of cloud-top cooling on the entrainment rate.

Randall, David A.↗

Cloud Classification in Polar and Desert Regions and Smoke Classification from Biomass Burning Using a Hierarchical Neural Network

This research focuses on a new neural network scene classification technique. The task is to identify scene elements in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometry (AVHRR) data from three scene types: polar, desert and smoke from biomass burning in South America (smoke). The ultimate goal of this research is to design and implement a computer system which will identify the clouds present on a whole-Earth satellite view as a means of tracking global climate changes. Previous research has reported results for rule-based systems (Tovinkere et at 1992, 1993) for standard back propagation (Watters et at. 1993) and for a hierarchical approach (Corwin et al 1994) for polar data. This research uses a hierarchical neural network with don't care conditions and applies this technique to complex scenes. A hierarchical neural network consists of a switching network and a collection of leaf networks. The idea of the hierarchical neural network is that it is a simpler task to classify a certain pattern from a subset of patterns than it is to classify a pattern from the entire set. Therefore, the first task is to cluster the classes into groups. The switching, or decision network, performs an initial classification by selecting a leaf network. The leaf networks contain a reduced set of similar classes, and it is in the various leaf networks that the actual classification takes place. The grouping of classes in the various leaf networks is determined by applying an iterative clustering algorithm. Several clustering algorithms were investigated, but due to the size of the data sets, the exhaustive search algorithms were eliminated. A heuristic approach using a confusion matrix from a lightly trained neural network provided the basis for the clustering algorithm. Once the clusters have been identified, the hierarchical network can be trained. The approach of using don't care nodes results from the difficulty in generating extremely complex surfaces in order to separate one class from all of the others. This approach finds pairwise separating surfaces and forms the more complex separating surface from combinations of simpler surfaces. This technique both reduces training time and improves accuracy over the previously reported results. Accuracies of 97.47%, 95.70%, and 99.05% were achieved for the polar, desert and smoke data sets.

Alexander, June↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics are inevitable affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distribution parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effect of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensembel (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bim microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e., pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), groupel and frozen drops/hall] Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e., 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions.A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region and in the mid-latitude using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Besides the initial differences in aerosol concentration, preliminary results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CCN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bim model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of cpecies in each size category, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for the two cases. It is shown that since the low CCN case produces fever droplets, larger size develop due to greater condencational and collectional growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics are inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles (i.e., pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail). Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region, in the sub-tropics (Florida) and in the mid-latitude using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low 'clean' concentration and a high 'dirty' concentration.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, r d a U production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensembe1 (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and platelike), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and in the mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "c1ean"concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. In addition, differences and similarities between bulk microphysics and spectral-bin microphysical schemes will be examined and discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensembel (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and in the mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "c1ean"concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. In addition, differences and similarities between bulk microphysics and spectral-bin microphysical schemes will be examined and discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics are inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e.,pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions.A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Besides the initial differences in aerosol concentration, preliminary results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CCN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size categor, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for the two cases. It is shown that since the low CCN case produces fewer droplets, larger sized develop due to the greater condensational and collectional growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Evaluation of a New Cloud Droplet Activation Parameterization wtih in Situ Data from CRYSTAL-FACE and CSTRIPE

The accuracy of the 2003 prognostic, physically based aerosol activation parameterization of A. Nenes and J. H. Seinfeld (NS) with modification introduced by C. Fountoukis and A. Nenes in 2005 (modified NS) is evaluated against extensive microphysical data sets collected on board the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter aircraft for cumuliform and stratiform clouds of marine and continental origin. The cumuliform cloud data were collected during NASA's Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE, Key West, Florida, July 2002), while the stratiform cloud data were gathered during Coastal Stratocumulus Imposed Perturbation Experiment (CSTRIPE, Monterey, California, July 2003). In situ data sets of aerosol size distribution, chemical composition, and updraft velocities are used as input for the NS parameterization, and the evaluation is carried out by comparing predicted cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC) with observations. This is the first known study in which a prognostic cloud droplet activation parameterization has been evaluated against a wide range of observations. On average, predicted droplet concentration in adiabatic regions is within -20% of observations at the base of cumuliform clouds and -30% of observations at different altitudes throughout the stratiform clouds, all within experimental uncertainty. Furthermore, CDNC is well parameterized using either a single mean updraft velocity w or by weighting droplet nucleation rates with a Gaussian probability density function of w. This study suggests that for nonprecipitating warm clouds of variable microphysics, aerosol composition, and size distribution the modified NS parameterization can accurately predict cloud droplet activation and can be successfully implemented for describing the aerosol activation process in global climate models.

Meskhidze, Nicholas↗

SBUV version 8.6 Retrieval Algorithm: Error Analysis and Validation Technique

SBUV version 8.6 algorithm was used to reprocess data from the Back Scattered Ultra Violet (BUV), the Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and a number of SBUV/2 instruments, which 'span a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s)[see Bhartia et al, 2012]. In the new version Daumont et al. [1992] ozone cross section were used, and new ozone [McPeters et ai, 2007] and cloud climatologies Doiner and Bhartia, 1995] were implemented. The algorithm uses the Optimum Estimation technique [Rodgers, 2000] to retrieve ozone profiles as ozone layer (partial column, DU) on 21 pressure layers. The corresponding total ozone values are calculated by summing ozone columns at individual layers. The algorithm is optimized to accurately retrieve monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles rather than an individual profile, since it uses monthly zonal mean ozone climatology as the A Priori. Thus, the SBUV version 8.6 ozone dataset is better suited for long-term trend analysis and monitoring ozone changes rather than for studying short-term ozone variability. Here we discuss some characteristics of the SBUV algorithm and sources of error in the SBUV profile and total ozone retrievals. For the first time the Averaging Kernels, smoothing errors and weighting functions (or Jacobians) are included in the SBUV metadata. The Averaging Kernels (AK) represent the sensitivity of the retrieved profile to the true state and contain valuable information about the retrieval algorithm, such as Vertical Resolution, Degrees of Freedom for Signals (DFS) and Retrieval Efficiency [Rodgers, 2000]. Analysis of AK for mzm ozone profiles shows that the total number of DFS for ozone profiles varies from 4.4 to 5.5 out of 6-9 wavelengths used for retrieval. The number of wavelengths in turn depends on solar zenith angles. Between 25 and 0.5 hPa, where SBUV vertical resolution is the highest, DFS for individual layers are about 0.5.

Kramarova, N. A.↗

Effects of Polar Stratospheric Clouds in the Nimbus 7 LIMS Version 6 Data Set

The historic Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) measurements of 1978-1979 from the Nimbus 7 satellite were re-processed with Version 6 (V6) algorithms and archived in 2002. The V6 data set employs updated radiance registration methods, improved spectroscopic line parameters, and a common vertical resolution for all retrieved parameters. Retrieved profiles are spaced about every 1.6 of latitude along orbits and include the additional parameter of geopotential height. Profiles of O3 are sensitive to perturbations from emissions of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). This work presents results of implementing a first-order screening for effects of PSCs using simple algorithms based on vertical gradients of the O3 mixing ratio. Their occurrences are compared with the co-located, retrieved temperatures and related to the temperature thresholds needed for saturation of H2O and/or HNO3 vapor onto PSC particles. Observed daily locations where the major PSC screening criteria are satisfied are validated against PSCs observed with the Stratospheric Aerosol Monitor (SAM) II experiment also on Nimbus 7. Remnants of emissions from PSCs are characterized for O3 and HNO3 following the screening. PSCs may also impart a warm bias in the co-located LIMS temperatures, but by no more than 1-2K at the altitudes of where effects of PSCs are a maximum in the ozone; thus, no PSC screening was applied to the V6 temperatures. Minimum temperatures vary between 187 and 194K and often occur 1 to 2 km above where PSC effects are first identified in the ozone (most often between about 21 and 28 hPa). Those temperature-pressure values are consistent with conditions for the existence of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) mixtures and to a lesser extent of super-cooled ternary solution (STS) droplets. A local, temporary uptake of HNO3 vapor of order 1-3 ppbv is indicated during mid-January for the 550K surface. Seven-month time series of the distributions of LIMS O3 and HNO3 are shown based on their gridded Level 3 data following the PSC screening. Zonal coefficients of both species are essentially free of effects from PSCs on the 550K surface, based on their average values along PV contours and in terms of equivalent latitude. Remnants of PSCs are still present in O3 on the 450K surface during mid- January. It is judged that the LIMS Level 3 data are of good quality for analyzing the larger-scale, stratospheric chemistry and transport processes during the Arctic winter of 1978- 1979.

Remsberg, Ellis↗

A Linearized Prognostic Cloud Scheme in NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

A linearized prognostic cloud scheme has been developed to accompany the linearized convection scheme recently implemented in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. The linearization, developed from the nonlinear cloud scheme, treats cloud variables prognostically so they are subject to linearized advection, diffusion, generation, and evaporation. Four linearized cloud variables are modeled, the ice and water phases of clouds generated by large-scale condensation and, separately, by detraining convection. For each species the scheme models their sources, sublimation, evaporation, and autoconversion. Large-scale, anvil and convective species of precipitation are modeled and evaporated. The cloud scheme exhibits linearity and realistic perturbation growth, except around the generation of clouds through large-scale condensation. Discontinuities and steep gradients are widely used here and severe problems occur in the calculation of cloud fraction. For data assimilation applications this poor behavior is controlled by replacing this part of the scheme with a perturbation model. For observation impacts, where efficiency is less of a concern, a filtering is developed that examines the Jacobian. The replacement scheme is only invoked if Jacobian elements or eigenvalues violate a series of tuned constants. The linearized prognostic cloud scheme is tested by comparing the linear and nonlinear perturbation trajectories for 6-, 12-, and 24-h forecast times. The tangent linear model performs well and perturbations of clouds are well captured for the lead times of interest.

Precipitation↗

The Role of Aerosols on Precipitation Processes

Cloud physics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distribution below the clouds. Therefore, the size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, a detailed spectral--bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e., pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e., 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Analysis of the GOES 6.7 micrometer channel observations during FIRE 2

Clouds form in moist environments. FIRE Phase II Cirrus Implementation Plan (August, 1990) noted the need for mesoscale measurements of upper tropospheric water vapor content. These measurements are needed for initializing and verifying numerical weather prediction models and for describing the environment in which cirrus clouds develop and dissipate. Various instruments where deployed to measure the water vapor amounts of the upper troposphere during FIRE II (e.g. Raman lidar, CLASS sonds and new cryogenic frost hygrometer on-board aircraft). The formation, maintenance and dissipation of cirrus clouds involve the time variation of the water budget of the upper troposphere. The GOES 6.7 mu m radiance observations are sensitive to the upper tropospheric relative humidity, and therefore proved extremely valuable in planning aircraft missions during the field phase of FIRE II. Warm 6.7 mu m equivalent black body temperatures indicate a relatively dry upper troposphere and were associated with regions generally free of cirrus clouds. Regions that were colder, implying more moisture was available may or may not have had cirrus clouds present. Animation of a time sequence of 6.7 mu m images was particularly useful in planning various FIRE missions. The 6.7 mu m observations can also be very valuable in the verification of model simulations and describing the upper tropospheric synoptic conditions. A quantitative analysis of the 6.7 mu m measurement is required to successfully incorporate these satellite observations into describing the upper tropospheric water vapor budget. Recently, Soden and Bretherton (1993) have proposed a method of deriving an upper tropospheric humidity based on observations from the GOES 6.7 mu m observations. The method is summarized in the next section. In their paper they compare their retrieval method to radiance simulations. Observations were also compared to ECMWF model output to assess the model performance. The FIRE experiment provides a unique opportunity to further verify the GOES upper tropospheric relative humidity retrieval scheme by providing (1) aircraft observations to cross-validate the calibration of the GOES 6.7 mu m channel, (2) accurate upper tropospheric water vapor concentrations for verification, and (3) veritical variability of upper tropospheric water vapor.

Soden, B. J.↗

Multi-Layer Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Comparison with ARM Observations and Sensitivity Experiments

A cloud-resolving model (CRM) is used to simulate the multiple-layer mixed-phase stratiform (MPS) clouds that occurred during a three-and-a-half day subperiod of the Department of Energy-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program s Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE). The CRM is implemented with an advanced two-moment microphysics scheme, a state-of-the-art radiative transfer scheme, and a complicated third-order turbulence closure. Concurrent meteorological, aerosol, and ice nucleus measurements are used to initialize the CRM. The CRM is prescribed by time-varying large-scale advective tendencies of temperature and moisture and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat. The CRM reproduces the occurrences of the single- and double-layer MPS clouds as revealed by the M-PACE observations. However, the simulated first cloud layer is lower and the second cloud layer thicker compared to observations. The magnitude of the simulated liquid water path agrees with that observed, but its temporal variation is more pronounced than that observed. As in an earlier study of single-layer cloud, the CRM also captures the major characteristics in the vertical distributions and temporal variations of liquid water content (LWC), total ice water content (IWC), droplet number concentration and ice crystal number concentration (nis) as suggested by the aircraft observations. However, the simulated mean values differ significantly from the observed. The magnitude of nis is especially underestimated by one order of magnitude. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the lower cloud layer is closely related to the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat; the upper cloud layer is probably initialized by the large-scale advective cooling/moistening and maintained through the strong longwave (LW) radiative cooling near the cloud top which enhances the dynamical circulation; artificially turning off all ice-phase microphysical processes results in an increase in LWP by a factor of 3 due to interactions between the excessive LW radiative cooling and extra cloud water; heating caused by phase change of hydrometeors could affect the LWC and cloud top height by partially canceling out the LW radiative cooling. It is further shown that the resolved dynamical circulation appears to contribute more greatly to the evolution of the MPS cloud layers than the parameterized subgrid-scale circulation.

Luo, Yali↗

Regime-Based Evaluation of Cloudiness in CMIP5 Models

The concept of Cloud Regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating for each gridcell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product (long-term average total cloud amount [TCA]), cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our findings support previous studies showing that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite their shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP as if they were another model output. Lastly, cloud simulation performance is contrasted with each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter.

cloud climatology↗

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗