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At least 127 records · Page 7

A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications

This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental process-level understanding, as in ice formation. Namely, it is currently unclear what is the main process that is forming the majority of ice crystals in commonly occurring convection, apparently via secondary ice production at warm temperatures. We are keenly awaiting laboratory data for candidate mechanisms, which is not yet in hand to crucially establish their efficiency. Our progress is also hampered by a lack of uncertainty characterization in currently available measurements of ice crystal number size distributions. Furthermore, the same multiplication process may be responsible for a majority of ice crystals in many extratropical mixed-phase clouds, whose variable representation in CMIP6 ESMs may be a leading cause of differences in cloud phase feedback and ECS. Yet we have been required to deliver an ESM with the cloud physics knowledge at hand. The proposed grand challenge project is AI-enabled via application of machine learning (ML) to climate model and observational data streams (focal area 3), and applications include AI-guided observing system design and model/component/parameterization selection (areas 1 and 2). The project is structurally agnostic as to whether model or observing system components use AI approaches or not, but uncertainties must be estimated and propagatable in both.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intercomparison of satellite-derived cloud analyses for the Arctic Ocean in spring and summer

Several methods of deriving Arctic cloud information, primarily from satellite imagery, have been intercompared. The comparisons help in establishing what cloud information is most readily determined in polar regions from satellite data analysis. The analyses for spring-summer conditions show broad agreement, but subjective errors affecting some geographical areas and cloud types are apparent. The results suggest that visible and thermal infrared data may be insufficient for adequate cloud mapping over some Arctic surfaces.

Mcguffie, K.↗

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of Quality-controlled AIRS Temperature Retrievals under Partially Cloudy Conditions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board the Aqua satellite has been long recognized as an important contributor towards the improvement of weather forecasts. At this time only a small fraction of the total data produced by AIRS is being used by operational weather systems. In fact, in addition to effects of thinning and quality control, the only AIRS data assimilated are radiance observations of channels unaffected by clouds. Observations in mid-lower tropospheric sounding AIRS channels are assimilated primarily under completely clear-sky conditions, thus imposing a very severe limitation on the horizontal distribution of the AIRS-derived information. In this work it is shown that the ability to derive accurate temperature profiles from AIRS observations in partially cloud-contaminated areas can be utilized to further improve the impact of AIRS observations in a global model and forecasting system. The analyses produced by assimilating AIRS temperature profiles obtained under partial cloud cover result in a substantially colder representation of the northern hemisphere lower midtroposphere at higher latitudes. This temperature difference has a strong impact, through hydrostatic adjustment, in the midtropospheric geopotential heights, which causes a different representation of the polar vortex especially over northeastern Siberia and Alaska. The AIRS-induced anomaly propagates through the model's dynamics producing improved 5-day forecasts.

Reale, O.↗

Improving Cloud Detection in Satellite Images of Coral Reef Environments Using Space Shuttle Photographs and High-Definition Television

Coral reefs worldwide are suffering from severe and rapid degradation (Bryant et A, 1998; Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). Quick, consistent, large-scale assessment is required to assess and monitor their status (e.g., USDOC/NOAA NESDIS et al., 1999). On-going systematic collection of high resolution digital satellite data will exhaustively complement the relatively small number of SPOT, Landsat 4-5, and IRS scenes acquired for coral reefs the last 20 years. The workhorse for current image acquisition is the Landsat 7 ETM+ Long Term Acquisition Plan (Gasch et al. 2000). Coral reefs are encountered in tropical areas and cloud contamination in satellite images is frequently a problem (Benner and Curry 1998), despite new automated techniques of cloud cover avoidance (Gasch and Campana 2000). Fusion of multidate acquisitions is a classical solution to solve the cloud problems. Though elegant, this solution is costly since multiple images must be purchased for one location; the cost may be prohibitive for institutions in developing countries. There are other difficulties associated with fusing multidate images as well. For example, water quality or surface state can significantly change through time in coral reef areas making the bathymetric processing of a mosaiced image strenuous. Therefore, another strategy must be selected to detect clouds and improve coral reefs mapping. Other supplemental data could be helpful and cost-effective for distinguishing clouds and generating the best possible reef maps in the shortest amount of time. Photographs taken from the 1960s to the present from the Space Shuttle and other human-occupied spacecraft are one under-used source of alternative multitemporal data (Lulla et al. 1996). Nearly 400,000 photographs have been acquired during this period, an estimated 28,000 of these taken to date are of potential value for reef remote sensing (Robinson et al. 2000a). The photographic images can be digitized into three bands (red, green and blue) and processed for various applications (e.g., Benner and Curry 1998, Nedeltchev 1999, Glasser and Lulla 2000, Robinson et al. 2000c, Webb et al, in press).

Andrefeouet, Serge↗

ERTS-1 views the Great Lakes

The meteorological content of ERTS images, particularly mesoscale effects of the Great Lakes and air pollution dispersion is summarized. Summertime lake breeze frontal clouds and various winter lake-effect convection patterns and snow squalls are revealed in great detail. A clear-cut spiral vortex over southern Lake Michigan is related to a record early snow storm in the Chicago area. Marked cloud changes induced by orographic and frictional effects on Lake Michigan's lee shore snow squalls are seen. The most important finding, however, is a clear-cut example of alterations in cumulus convection by anthropogenic condensation and/or ice nuclei from northern Indiana steel mills during a snow squall situation. Jet aircraft condensation trails are also found with surprising frequency.

Lyons, W. A.↗

Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth’s atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently-developed Lagrangian particle-based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next-generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process-level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle-based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

13RC and and 3DRT Working Group of IRC: Status and Plans

We summarize recent activities of the International Intercomparison of 3D Radiation Codes (DRC), including development of an open source code, approximation methods for use in cloud dynamical models, and cloud reconstructions from multiple satellite platforms such as MODIS, MISR and ICESat. We also discuss the charter of the newly formed 3DRT Working Group of the International Radiation Commission, which hopes to coordinate and integrate efforts in various 3D application areas, including clouds, sea ice, and vegetation. Finally we describe plans for a special 3D session at the next International Radiation Symposium in Busan Korea, during 23-30 August 2004.

Cahalan, Robert↗

Investigating the Impacts of Aqueous-Phase Processing on Organic Aerosol Chemical Climatology Using ARM and ASR Observations

This project improved understanding of how atmospheric aerosol particles form and evolve, with a focus on the role of water-driven (aqueous-phase) chemical reactions in the atmosphere. These processes occur in clouds, fog, and humid air and can significantly change the composition and properties of airborne particles, known as aerosols, which influence air quality and climate. By combining field measurements, laboratory experiments, and advanced analytical techniques, the project identified key chemical signatures that allow scientists to distinguish particles formed through aqueous processes from those formed in the gas phase. Observations from multiple environments, including wildfire smoke, urban regions, and cloud-influenced areas, show that aqueous chemistry is an important pathway for particle formation and aging. The project also developed new measurement approaches using uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) to capture how aerosol composition varies with altitude, providing critical insights into how particles interact with clouds. In addition, new data analysis frameworks were created to better interpret long-term aerosol measurements and improve characterization of particle sources and transformations. These results have been integrated into a global database of aerosol measurements and used to support atmospheric modeling efforts. Overall, the project provides important tools and knowledge to improve predictions of how aerosols affect climate and air quality, particularly through their interactions with radiation and clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Low-level water vapor fields from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) 'split window' channels

A simple physical algorithm is presented which calculates the water vapor content of the lower troposphere from the 11 and 12 micron (split window) channels on the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. The algorithm is used to analyze a time series of VAS split window radiances observed at 15 km horizontal resolution over eastern North America during a 12 hr period on 13 July 1981. Results of the color coded images of the derived precipitable water fields are found to show vivid water vapor features whose broad structure and evolution are verified by the radiosonde and surface networks. The satellite moisture fields also show significant mesoscale features and rapid developments which are not resolved by the conventional networks. The VAS split window is determined to clearly differentiate those areas in which water vapor extends over a deep layer and is more able to support convective cells from those areas in which water vapor is confined to a shallow layer and is therefore less able to support convection. It is concluded that the VAS split windows can be used operationally to monitor mesoscale developments in the low-level moisture fields over relatively cloud-free areas of the United States.

Chesters, D.↗

Low-frequency variations of circulation and high cloudiness in the northern extratropics - Spatial and temporal relationships

The spatial and temporal relationships between fluctuations in geopotential height and high-cloud fractional area in low-pass (periods greater than 10 days) and intermediate-pass (10-30 days) time scales are investigated and compared with spatial and temporal relationships in the fast-pass (2.5-6 days) time scale, using NMC 500-hPa height and Nimbus-7 THIR-TOMS high-cloud data for October-March winter months of 1979-1985. It was found that, when moving from the low-pass and intermediate-pass time scales to the fast-pass regime, the temporal variance of the height field decreases, but the temporal variance of the high cloudiness increases. The spatial phase relationships between the height and the cloud fields in the low-pass and the fast-pass regimes were found to be different.

Charlock, Thomas P.↗

Implicit determination of multispectral scanner data variation over extended areas.

Description of a method by which variations in aerial multispectral scanner data can be accounted for when there is insufficient ground truth information. The data are suitably filtered and smoothed along the flight line, and the reduced results are presented in a form such that the investigator can readily determine the preprocessing that should be used and the spatial extent to which it should be applied. An algorithm is developed for the detection of cloud-shadowed areas.

Kriegler, F. J.↗

Integrative data-driven approaches for characterization & prediction of aerosol-cloud processes

Focal Area: Advanced methods to glean insights from complex data (Focal Area 3). Science Challenge: Fusing and interpreting the vast amount of data from disjoint sources for the purpose of elevating our understanding of aerosol-cloud interaction presents an enormous challenge and opportunity and is necessary to improve uncertainty quantification and predictions, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Effect of Dust Particles on Global Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Cloud Droplet Number

Aerosol-cloud interaction studies to date consider aerosol with a substantial fraction of soluble material as the sole source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Emerging evidence suggests that mineral dust can act as good CCN through water adsorption onto the surface of particles. This study provides a first assessment of the contribution of insoluble dust to global CCN and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Simulations are carried out with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model with an online aerosol simulation, considering emissions from fossil fuel, biomass burning, marine, and dust sources. CDNC is calculated online and explicitly considers the competition of soluble and insoluble CCN for water vapor. The predicted annual average contribution of insoluble mineral dust to CCN and CDNC in cloud-forming areas is up to 40 and 23.8%, respectively. Sensitivity tests suggest that uncertainties in dust size distribution and water adsorption parameters modulate the contribution of mineral dust to CDNC by 23 and 56%, respectively. Coating of dust by hygroscopic salts during the atmospheric aging causes a twofold enhancement of the dust contribution to CCN; the aged dust, however, can substantially deplete in-cloud supersaturation during the initial stages of cloud formation and can eventually reduce CDNC. Considering the hydrophilicity from adsorption and hygroscopicity from solute is required to comprehensively capture the dust-warm cloud interactions. The framework presented here addresses this need and can be easily integrated in atmospheric models.

Karydis, V. A.↗

Surface wind convergence as a short-term predictor of cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center: A four-year summary and evaluation

Since 1986, USAF forecasters at NASA-Kennedy have had available a surface wind convergence technique for use during periods of convective development. In Florida during the summer, most of the thunderstorm development is forced by boundary layer processes. The basic premise is that the life cycle of convection is reflected in the surface wind field beneath these storms. Therefore the monitoring of the local surface divergence and/or convergence fields can be used to determine timing, location, longevity, and the lightning hazards which accompany these thunderstorms. This study evaluates four years of monitoring thunderstorm development using surface wind convergence, particularly the average over the area. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is related in time and space with surface convergence for 346 days during the summers of 1987 through 1990 over the expanded wind network at KSC. The relationships are subdivided according to low level wind flow and midlevel moisture patterns. Results show a one in three chance of CG lightning when a convergence event is identified. However, when there is no convergence, the chance of CG lightning is negligible.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

Advancing Open Science through Public-Private Partnerships

Rapid technology developments are changing the way data-driven research is performed within the science community. With the emergence of cloud computing, this has quickly become a viable approach for enabling “science at scale”. Researchers are no longer hindered by obstacles of data management and data wrangling, allowing them to quickly discover, access and perform analysis on extremely large datasets. Infrastructures that move data out of institutional silos and into a computational platform, will ensure that data and tools are accessible to all users. NASA’s Interagency Implementation and Advanced Concepts Team (IMPACT) seeks to address these rapid technology developments by establishing Space Act Agreements with selected partners from the public-private sector working in the area of cloud computing. These agreements aim to explore new opportunities with commercial cloud providers to accelerate open science and enable discovery, access and use of data sets on the cloud. In addition, they will also help establish training workshops for the science community to help researchers utilize the cloud for science. In this talk, we will present an overview of current and new partnerships we are developing to support open science and open data initiatives.

Elizabeth Fancher↗

Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States Due to Feedbacks on Large-Scale Circulation

Superparameterized (SP) global climate models have been shown to better simulate various features of precipitation relative to conventional models, including its diurnal cycle as well as its extremes. While various studies have focused on the effect of differing microphysics parameterizations on precipitation within limited-area cloud-resolving models, we examine here the effect on contiguous U.S. (CONUS) extremes in a global SP model. We vary the number of predicted moments for hydrometeor distributions, the character of the rimed ice species, and the representation of raindrop self-collection and breakup. Using a likelihood ratio test and accounting for the effects of multiple hypothesis testing, we find that there are some regional differences, particularly during spring and summer in the Southwest and the Midwest, in both the current climate and a warmer climate with uniformly increased sea surface temperatures. These differences are most statistically significant and widespread when the number of moments is changed. To determine whether these results are due to (fast) local effects of the different microphysics or the (slower) ensuing feedback on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, we run a series of short, 5-day simulations initialized from reanalysis data. We find that the differences largely disappear in these runs and therefore infer that the different parameterizations impact precipitation extremes indirectly via the large-scale circulation. Finally, we compare the present-day results with hourly rain gauge data and find that SP underestimates extremes relative to observations regardless of which microphysics scheme is used given a fixed model configuration and resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Marine Aerosol to Refinery Emissions: Transport and Evolution of CCN in the Houston Metropolitan Area and Their Impact on Cloud Formation

The Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) campaign aimed to untangle the impacts of contrasting aerosol sources on cloud microphysical properties within deep convective cells using airborne observations with the National Research Council Canada (NRC) Convair CV‐580 research aircraft. Horizontal and vertical gradients of aerosol number size distributions, total aerosol concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra were measured in the lower troposphere to quantify the impact of different aerosol sources on aerosol‐cloud interactions. This study focuses on a research flight dedicated to characterizing the aerosol and CCN properties in the Houston Metropolitan region and identifies five main categories of aerosols based on characteristics of aerosol number size distributions, their CCN properties and meteorological conditions. These categories encompassed more than two orders of magnitude differences in aerosol and CCN concentrations, yet their hygroscopic properties remained similar. Aerosol number size distributions and effective hygroscopicity parameters are used to generate continuous CCN spectra to represent the major aerosol types. The different CCN spectra are then incorporated into a 1‐D aerosol‐cloud parcel model using a large range of updrafts selected in the range of those observed during the ESCAPE campaign to assess the impact of the major aerosol sources in Houston on deep convective cloud microphysical properties.

aerosol-cloud interactions↗

Enhancing fire emissions inventories for acute health effects studies: integrating high spatial and temporal resolution data

Daily fire progression information is crucial for public health studies that examine the relationship between population-level smoke exposures and subsequent health events. Issues with remote sensing used in fire emissions inventories (FEI) lead to the possibility of missed exposures that impact the results of acute health effects studies. This paper provides a method for improving an FEI dataset with readily available information to create a more robust dataset with daily fire progression. High temporal and spatial resolution burned area information from two FEI products are combined into a single dataset, and a linear regression model fills gaps in daily fire progression. The combined dataset provides up to 71% more PM 2.5 emissions, 69% more burned area, and 367% more fire days per year than using a single source of burned area information. The FEI combination method results in improved FEI information with no gaps in daily fire emissions estimates. The combined dataset provides a functional improvement to FEI data that can be achieved with currently available data.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗