SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Combined Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Speed of Sound Measurements of Binary Mixtures of Hydrofluorocarbons [Pentafluoroethane (R-125), 1,1-Difluoroethane (R-152a), or 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-Heptafluoropropane (R-227ea)] with Hydrofluoroolefins [2,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (R-1234yf) or trans-1,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (R-1234ze(E))]

In this article, speed of sound data measured using a dual-path pulse-echo instrument are reported for three binary refrigerant mixtures, R-125/1234yf, R-1234yf/152a, and R-1234ze(E)/227ea, at compositions of (0.33/0.67) and (0.67/0.33) mole fraction. The speed of sound was studied at temperatures ranging from 230 K to 345 K from pressures slightly above the bubble point curve up to 20 MPa for the mixtures containing R-1234yf and 49 MPa for the R-1234ze(E)/227ea mixtures. The relative combined expanded speed of sound uncertainty ranged from 0.039 % to 0.317 % with a mean uncertainty over all state points of less than 0.10 %. The reported data are compared to the most recent mixture models in REFPROP for each blend studied. Comparisons of available mixture models for the R-125/1234yf and R-1234yf/152a blends exhibit average absolute deviation values ranging from 0.10 % to 0.27 %, and the average absolute deviations for R-1234ze(E)/227ea blends range from 0.62 % to 0.94 %. The comparisons show that only minor adjustments are required to the R-125/1234yf and R-1234yf/152a mixture models to represent the speed of sound data within its uncertainty. However, significant adjustments are needed to improve the current mixture models for the R-1234ze(E)/227ea blend. Deficiencies with the R-1234ze(E)/227ea mixture model are not unexpected since it (1) utilizes a pure-fluid EOS R-1234ze(E) that has been shown to inaccurately represent R-1234ze(E) speed of sound values and (2) uses binary interaction parameters for the chemically similar mixture of R-1234yf/227ea.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Compressed Liquid (${{p}}$-${{\rho}}$-${{T}}$) Measurements of trans-1,2-Dichloroethene [R-1130(E)]

Pressure-density-temperature (${{p}}$-${{\rho}}$-${{T}}$) data for the refrigerant R-1130(E) (trans-1,2-dichloroethene) were measured in the compressed liquid phase using an automated vibrating-tube densimeter. Overall, the measurements covered temperatures from 270 K to 410 K and pressures from 0.5 MPa to 30 MPa. Relative combined, expanded (95% confidence level) uncertainties ranged from approximately 0.05% to 0.06%. Here, we present measurement results, along with comparisons to available literature data and to a generalized extended corresponding states model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the total compton scattering cross section between 6.5 and 11 GeV

The total cross section for Compton scattering off atomic electrons, $γ + e → γ' + e'$, was measured using photons with energies between 6.5 and 11.1 GeV incident on a 9 Be target as part of the PrimEx-eta experiment in Hall D at Jefferson Lab. This is the first measurement of this fundamental QED process within this energy range. The total uncertainties of the cross section, combining the statistical and systematic components in quadrature, averaged to 3.4 % across all energy bins. This not only demonstrates the capability of this experimental setup to perform precision cross-section measurements at forward angles but also allows us to compare with state-of-the-art QED calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The bond energy of UN + : Guided ion beam studies of the reactions of U + with N 2 and NO

In this work, a guided ion beam tandem mass spectrometer was used to study the reactions of U + with N 2 and NO. Reaction cross sections were measured over a wide range of energy for both systems. In each reaction, UN + is formed by an endothermic process, thereby enabling the direct measurement of the threshold energy and determination of the UN + bond dissociation energy. For the reaction of U + + N 2 , a threshold energy (E 0 ) of 4.02 ± 0.11 eV was measured, leading to D 0 (UN + ) = 5.73 ± 0.11 eV. The reaction of U + + NO yields UO + through an exothermic, barrierless process that proceeds with 94 ± 23% efficiency at the lowest energy. Analysis of the endothermic UN + cross section in this reaction provides E 0 = 0.72 ± 0.11 eV and, therefore, D 0 (UN + ) = 5.78 ± 0.11 eV. Averaging the values obtained from both reactions, we report D 0 (UN + ) = 5.76 ± 0.13 eV as our best value (uncertainty of two standard deviations). Combined with precise literature values for the ionization energies of U and UN, we also derive D 0 (UN) = 5.86 ± 0.13 eV. Both bond dissociation energies agree well with high-level theoretical treatments in the literature. The formation of UN + in reaction of U + with NO also exhibits a considerable increase in reaction probability above ~3 eV. Theory suggests that this may be consistent with the formation of UN + in excited quintet spin states, which we hypothesize are dynamically favored because the number of 5f electrons in reactants and products is conserved.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the anomalous spin precession frequency $\omega_a$ in the Muon g - 2 experiment at Fermilab

The muon magnetic anomaly aµ = (gµ - 2)/2 is a low-energy observable,which can be both measured and computed to high precision, making ita sensitive test of the Standard Model (SM). In April 2021, the E989 Collaborationat Fermilab National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) published the first resultbased on the first year of data taking (Run-1), and in August 2023 a new resultwas published based on two more years of data taking (Run-2 and Run-3). Thenew result was in agreement with the first one and with the previous experimentat Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and the combination of these resultsbrought the uncertainty on the experimental measurement of aµ to the unprecedentedvalue of 0.19 parts per million (ppm). This paper will present details aboutthe improvements and upgrades since the 2021 result, and it will describe the finalstatistical and systematic sources of uncertainty on .a in the 2023 result.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to extend and understand the sources and limits of water cycle predictability on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales in the Earth system

This white paper provides initial insight on how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), including interpretability and explainable AI (XAI) methods, can be leveraged to glean insight from complex data for a paradigm-changing improvement in Earth system predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) and seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) timescales. The application of AI to extend and improve predictability, in combination with causal inference and uncertainty quantification, could lead to a transformative understanding of the integrative water cycle and associated extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Investigation of Fluid Flow and Space Charge in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) Detectors

Overview This project focused on developing a high-fidelity numerical framework to simulate the multiphysics environment within Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) detectors. The primary objective was to characterize the complex interplay between ion transport, background fluid dynamics, and electric field distortions—a critical factor for the calibration and sensitivity of next-generation High Energy Physics experiments, such as DUNE. Technical Achievements The research successfully yielded a hybrid numerical space-charge solver utilizing a Cell-Centered Finite Volume Method (FVM) for ion transport coupled with a Finite Element Method (FEM) for electric potential. Key accomplishments include: • Verification & Validation: The 3-D solver was rigorously verified against 1-D analytical solutions, demonstrating high numerical accuracy in predicting space-charge-induced field deviations. • Field Distortion Analysis: 3D simulations revealed that space charge effects introduce significant non-uniformities in the electric field. Critically, the research identified that background LAr flow velocities, when comparable to ion drift velocities, markedly exacerbate these distortions. • Technology Transfer: The resulting source code and comprehensive user manuals were successfully transferred to collaborators at Fermilab, providing a portable computational tool for the broader scientific community. Challenges and Future Directions While the space-charge solver achieved all performance metrics, the integrated fluid dynamics modeling encountered convergence challenges stemming from the extreme 200-fold disparity in length scales between the detector's 37 mm inlet pipes and the 8-meter global domain. To address this, the project has identified a clear technical pivot toward Hierarchical Geometric Adaptive Mesh Refinement (HG-AMR). By implementing an h-type refinement strategy with hanging nodes, future iterations of this solver will be capable of resolving localized high-gradient inlet flows without the prohibitive computational costs of regular grids. This advancement, combined with data-driven uncertainty quantification based on MicroBooNE-style calibration, will enable the precise modeling of detector responses in large-scale cryogenic environments where direct measurement remains difficult. Impact The computational tools developed under this award provide a foundation for enhancing the energy resolution and spatial reconstruction of noble liquid detectors. By bridging the gap between theoretical fluid dynamics and experimental field calibration, this work supports the DOE’s mission to advance the frontiers of neutrino physics and dark matter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electron Neutrino Selection for Neutrino Oscillation Searches in the SBN Program

The Short- Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Pprogram at Fermilab employs a near detector, SBND, and a far detector, ICARUS, to search for baseline-dependent changes to the measure muon neutrino disappearance and electron neutrino appearance and disappearance from the muon neutrino-dominated Booster Neutrino Beam flux. The use of the same liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) technology in both detectors and the same neutrino beam enables a systematically well-constrained oscillation measurement, by leveraging the high statistics of O(10 million) neutrino interactions expected at SBND through 2027 to constrain flux and cross-section systematics. In this poster, we present high-statistics, high-purity electron neutrino selections in SBND and ICARUS and related electron shower energy calibration measurements in SBND enabled by the SPINE deep learning-based particle reconstruction framework. Furthermore, we discuss how these samples can enable high sensitivity to '3+1' sterile neutrino oscillations in a combined fit accounting for systematic uncertainties and correlations.

Oza, Nupur [Nevis Labs, Columbia U.; Columbia U.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stellar Population Properties in the Stellar Streams around SPRC047

Abstract We have investigated the properties (e.g., age, metallicity) of the stellar populations of a ringlike tidal stellar stream (or streams) around the edge-on galaxy SPRC047 (z= 0.031) using spectral energy distribution (SED) fits to integrated broadband aperture flux densities. We used visual images in six different bands and Spitzer/IRAC 3.6μm data. We have attempted to derive best-fit stellar population parameters (metallicity, age) in three noncontiguous segments of the stream. Due to the very low surface brightness of the stream, we have performed a deconvolution with a Richardson–Lucy–type algorithm of the low spatial resolution 3.6μm IRAC image, thereby reducing the effect of the point-spread function aliasedemissionfrom the bright edge-on central galaxy at the locations of our three stream segments. Our SED fits that used several different star formation (SF) history priors, from an exponentially decaying SF burst to continuous SF, indicate that the age–metallicity–dust degeneracy is not resolved, most likely because of inadequate wavelength coverage and low signal-to-noise ratios of the low surface brightness features. We also discuss how future deep visual–near-infrared observations, combined with absolute flux calibration uncertainties at or below the 1% level, complemented by equally well absolute flux-calibrated observations in ultraviolet and mid-infrared bands, would improve the accuracy of broadband SED fitting results for low surface brightness targets, such as stellar streams around nearby galaxies that are not resolved into stars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1): Light Curves and Photometric Classification of 1975 Supernovae

We present the Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1), comprised of processed multicolor PanSTARRS1 griz and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) gr photometry of 1975 transients with host–galaxy associations, redshifts, spectroscopic and/or photometric classifications, and additional data products from 2019 November 24 to 2021 December 20. YSE DR1 spans discoveries and observations from young and fast-rising supernovae (SNe) to transients that persist for over a year, with a redshift distribution reaching z ≈ 0.5. We present relative SN rates from YSE's magnitude- and volume-limited surveys, which are consistent with previously published values within estimated uncertainties for untargeted surveys. We combine YSE and ZTF data, and create multisurvey SN simulations to train the ParSNIP and SuperRAENN photometric classification algorithms; when validating our ParSNIP classifier on 472 spectroscopically classified YSE DR1 SNe, we achieve 82% accuracy across three SN classes (SNe Ia, II, Ib/Ic) and 90% accuracy across two SN classes (SNe Ia, core-collapse SNe). Our classifier performs particularly well on SNe Ia, with high (>90%) individual completeness and purity, which will help build an anchor photometric SNe Ia sample for cosmology. We then use our photometric classifier to characterize our photometric sample of 1483 SNe, labeling 1048 (~71%) SNe Ia, 339 (~23%) SNe II, and 96 (~6%) SNe Ib/Ic. YSE DR1 provides a training ground for building discovery, anomaly detection, and classification algorithms, performing cosmological analyses, understanding the nature of red and rare transients, exploring tidal disruption events and nuclear variability, and preparing for the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

HAMscope: a snapshot Hyperspectral Autofluorescence Miniscope for real-time molecular imaging

We introduce HAMscope, a compact, snapshot hyperspectral autofluorescence miniscope that enables real-time, label-free molecular imaging in a wide range of biological systems. By integrating a thin polymer diffuser into a widefield miniscope, HAMscope spectrally encodes each frame and employs a probabilistic deep learning framework to reconstruct 30-channel hyperspectral stacks (452-703 nm) or directly infer molecular composition maps from single images. A scalable multi-pass U-Net architecture with transformer-based attention and per pixel uncertainty estimation enables high spatio-spectral fidelity (mean absolute error ∼0.0048) at video rates. While initially demonstrated in plant systems, including lignin, chlorophyll, and suberin imaging in intact poplar and cork tissues, the platform is readily adaptable to other applications such as neural activity mapping, metabolic profiling, and histopathology. We show that the system generalizes to out-of-distribution tissue types and supports direct molecular mapping without the need for spectral unmixing. HAMscope establishes a general framework for compact, uncertainty-aware spectral imaging that combines minimal optics with advanced deep learning, offering broad utility for real-time biochemical imaging across neuroscience, environmental monitoring, and biomedicine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale Experiments and Multiphysics Simulation of Multiphase Flow for Transportable Small Modular Reactors

A new type of safe, small, transportable nuclear reactor would address the intense and ever-growing global demand for energy produced via a resilient, carbon-free energy source. In this regard, transportable small modular reactors (SMRs) are being designed and developed for electricity generation within small/micro-grid/off-grid isolated systems, as well as for heat generation in industrial/residential applications. These reactors feature the capability to be fully factory fabricated and then directly transported to utilities’ sites as “plug-and-play” systems. Research and development (R&D) programs are underway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to successfully design, develop, and demonstrate such safe-by-design mobile reactor technologies, in collaboration with partner organizations. Multiscale experimental facilities and multiphysics simulation tools are required for reactor design verification and validation (V&V), and licensing. These advanced reactors are intended to feature passive safety systems such as passive containment cooling systems (PCCS), which consist of multiphase flows and multispecies distributions. This seminar talk will focus on designing and analyzing transportable SMR PCCS by using multiscale experiments and multiphysics computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to support reactor licensing and safety. The corresponding research challenges are addressed via supportive verification and validation results generated by the models and simulation tools in combination with selective parametric and uncertainty analysis. This solution approach could blaze the trail for commercial adoption of such technologies. The facilities, simulation capabilities, and research opportunities available at INL in regard to such reactors and the integrated energy systems with which they go hand in hand are also discussed briefly, and may spark interest in deeper research as well as new collaborative projects.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Uncertainty in Modeling Stress Corrosion Cracking

This report summarizes the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to improve the state of knowledge on chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). The foundation of this work relied on using SNL’s CISCC computer code to assess the current state of knowledge for probabilistically modeling CISCC on stainless steel canisters. This work is presented as three tasks. The first task is exploring and independently comparing crack growth rate (CGR) models typically used in CISCC modeling by the research community. The second task is implementing two of the more conservative CGR models from the first task into SNL’s full CISCC code to understand the impact of the different CGR models on a full probabilistic analysis while studying uncertainty from three key input parameters. The combined work of the first two tasks showed that properly measuring salt deposition rates is impactful to reducing uncertainty when modeling CISCC. The work in Task 2 also showed how probabilistic CGR models can be more appropriate at capturing aleatory uncertainty when modeling SCC. Lastly, appropriate and realistic input parameters relevant for CISCC modeling were documented in the last task as a product of the simulations considered in the first two tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological parameter estimation with a joint-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis

Here, we present a joint-likelihood analysis of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, consistently combining likelihoods and taking into account uncertainties in nuclear reaction rates for the first time. Bayesian inference is performed on the baryon abundance and the effective number of neutrino species, 𝑁 eff , using a CMB Boltzmann solver in combination with LINX , a new flexible and efficient BBN code. We marginalize over Planck nuisance parameters and nuclear rates to find 𝑁 eff =3.0⁢8$^{+0.15}_{−0.14}$, 2.9⁢4$^{+0.16}_{−0.15}$, or 2.96$^{+0.13}_{−0.14}$, for three separate reaction networks. This framework enables robust testing of the lambda cold dark matter paradigm and its variants with CMB and BBN data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2020

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of Perturbation Theory and Sensitivity Capabilities in Griffin

Griffin is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) based reactor Multiphysics analysis application, jointly developed by Argonne and Idaho National Laboratories under the DOE-NE NEAMS program. This fiscal year, capabilities for reactivity and sensitivity evaluation using perturbation methods were implemented and verified. The First Order Perturbation Method (FOPT) was employed to compute reactivity worth resulting from small perturbations in input parameters, while the Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) was used to evaluate sensitivities of a range of response types, including reaction rate ratio, k-eigenvalue, neutron generation time, and effective delayed neutron fraction. These perturbation methods enable users to quantify how response quantities change due to a perturbation in a input parameter without explicitly performing an additional transport simulation for each perturbed state. In particular, the GPT formulation accounts for indirect effects arising from flux changes by solving generalized inhomogeneous equations, for which a Neumann series-based iterative solution method was developed and implemented in Griffin. The implemented reactivity and sensitivity evaluation capabilities were verified using two test problems: an infinite homogeneous system and a two-dimensional hexagonal core. The results showed excellent agreement with reference solutions obtained by a direct method based on finite difference approximation as well as GPT-based results from the PERSENT code, confirming the accuracy of both reactivity and sensitivity evaluations. Additionally, preliminary uncertainty quantification (UQ) results were obtained by combining the sensitivity values computed using GPT and external covariance data, demonstrating that the implemented sensitivity results can be reliably used for uncertainty calculations. To further demonstrate the generality and practical strength of the implementation, the sensitivity evaluation capability was successfully applied to the Empire microreactor with a geometrically complex design that poses significant modeling challenges. The results confirm that Griffin enables sensitivity evaluations even for irregular and highly heterogeneous reactor configurations, thereby establishing a foundation for UQ applications in advanced reactor designs and analyses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research

MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research explores the dynamics and co-evolutionary pathways of human and Earth systems and the emerging interdependent sectors of energy, water, agriculture, and transportation among others. The interactions between these sectors are central to MSD science, as they capture how processes and feedbacks across Earth, environmental, infrastructure, and societal systems shape transitions, socioeconomic risks, and the provision of services. By definition, MSD research requires deep integration across diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from the natural to the social sciences and engineering. All these disciplines apply a variety of numerical simulation models to study and understand their underlying systems of focus. The utility of these models hinges on the fidelity with which they represent the real systems and their ability to produce novel insights about systems and their interactions. The coupled human-natural systems typically represented are shaped by a multitude of interdependent human and natural processes which, when modeled, translate to highly complex, non-linear, interacting behaviors. This ever-increasing complexity massively expands the uncertainty space of a model and can be found in model inputs, processes and parameters. This is further amplified when several models are combined to answer multisectoral questions, as additional uncertainty regarding coupling relationships and interactions is introduced.

IM3, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis, multise↗