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At least 127 records · Page 7

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes

Scalable and compact magnetocaloric heat pump technology

Magnetocaloric heat pumping (MCHP) promises to be more efficient than traditional vapor compression while also eliminating the deleterious effects of gaseous refrigerants. While MCHP devices have shown the temperature spans and efficiencies needed for different heating and cooling applications, they struggle to become commercially viable due to their large size and mass, and resultant high cost. This paper evaluates a baseline MCHP device and explores methods to boost its system power density (SPD). The key components of the baseline system are the gadolinium packed-particle bed active magnetic regenerator (AMR) and a magnetic source composed of permanent magnets and high permeability magnetic steel. To enhance the SPD, the paper evaluates maximizing the AMR volume, opting for first-order magnetocaloric materials, optimizing the magnet and AMR geometry, and reducing the size of magnets and magnetic steel parts. At larger thermal powers, increasing the AMR diameter and the number of magnetic poles were evaluated. Using finite element models, solid models, and estimates of magnetocaloric material performance, thermal powers ranging from 37 W to 44 kW at a nominal 10 K temperature span were projected, and SPD was estimated to improve from 6 W/kg to 81 W/kg. Neglecting end effects, an upper limit of 114 W/g is estimated. Compared to SPD of off-the-shelf compressors with similar environment temperatures, MCHP power density using gadolinium is competitive up to roughly 200 W of cooling power. This is extended to 1 kW when using LaFeSi alloys and up to 3 kW in the limiting case. In conclusion, these results indicate that the performance and mass of MCHP can match that of compressors, which is a critical step toward cost-competitive magnetocaloric technology.

42 ENGINEERING

HTO and selenate diffusion through compacted Na-, Na–Ca-, and Ca-montmorillonite

Radionuclide transport in smectite clay barrier systems used for nuclear waste disposal is controlled by diffusion, with adsorption significantly retarding transport rates. While a relatively minor component of spent nuclear fuel, 79 Se is a major driver of the safety case for spent fuel disposal due to its long half-life (3.3×10 5 yr) and its low adsorption to clay (K D < 10 L/kg), thus a thorough understanding of Se diffusion through clay is critical for understanding the long-term safety of spent fuel disposal systems. Through-diffusion experiments with tritiated water (HTO, conservative tracer) and Se(VI) were conducted with a well-characterized, purified montmorillonite source clay (SWy-2) under a constant ionic strength (0.1 M) and three different electrolyte compositions: Na + , Ca 2+ , and a Na + -Ca 2+ mixture at pH 6.5 in order to probe the effects of electrolyte composition and interlayer cation composition on clay microstructure, Se(VI) aqueous speciation, and ultimately diffusion. Further, the results were modeled using a reactive transport modeling approach to determine values of porosity (ε), D e (effective diffusion coefficient), and K D (distribution coefficient for adsorption). HTO diffusive flux was higher in Ca-montmorillonite (D e =1.68×10 -10 m 2 s -1 ) compared to Na-montmorillonite (De=7.83×10 -11 m 2 s -1 ). This increase in flux is likely due to a greater degree of clay layer stacking in the presence of Ca 2+ compared to Na + , which leads to larger inter-particle pores. Overall, the Se(VI) flux was much lower than the HTO flux due to anion exclusion, with Se(VI) flux following the order Ca (D e = 1.03×10 -11 m 2 s -1 ) > Na–Ca (D e = 2.12×10 -12 m 2 s -1 ) > Na (D e = 1.28×10 -12 m 2 s -1 ). These differences in Se(VI) flux are due to a combination of factors, including (1) larger accessible porosity in Ca-montmorillonite due to clay layer stacking and smaller electrostatic effects compared to Na-montmorillonite, (2) larger accessible porosity for neutral-charge CaSeO4 species which makes up 32% of aqueous Se(VI) in the pure Ca system, and (3) possibly higher Se(VI) adsorption for Ca-montmorillonite. Through a combination of experimental and modeling work, this study highlights the compounding effects that electrolyte and counterion compositions can have on radionuclide transport through clay. Diffusion models that neglect these effects are not transferable from laboratory experimental conditions to in situ repository conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Steric effects of central dogma processes on the compaction and segregation of bacterial nucleoids

The bacterial cytoplasm is characterized by a distinctive membrane-less organelle, the nucleoid, which harbors the chromosomal DNA. Here, we investigate the steric effects of dynamic processes associated with transcription and translation on the structure of this organelle using coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations that incorporate out-of-equilibrium reactions. Our model captures the scale of the entire cell and incorporates a reaction-diffusion system for ribosomes and polyribosomes, coupling their nonequilibrium kinetics to DNA excluded volume interactions. Our findings demonstrate that out-of-equilibrium reactions increase the size of the nucleoid and the number of ribosomes in this subcellular region. In addition, we show that nucleoid size is proportional to transcriptional activity. Our model reproduces the time-dependent change in nucleoid size observed in rifampicin treatment experiments, where the pool of polyribosomes is depleted. Furthermore, we find that these active processes are essential for complete sister chromosome separation and correct nucleoid positioning within the cell. Overall, our study reveals the effects of the central dogma processes on the internal organization and localization of bacterial nucleoids.

Chang, Mu-Hung [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN

C3MechLite: An integrated component library of compact kinetic mechanisms for low-carbon, carbon neutral and zero-carbon fuels

Based on our latest detailed chemical reaction mechanism, C3MechV4.0, we have developed two reduced reaction mechanisms—C3MechLite and C3MechCore—targeting C 0 –C 3 chemical species including NH 3 . C3MechLite (61 species), contains a number of species comparable to GRI-Mech (53 species), that can accurately predict the combustion characteristics of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, ammonia, methane, natural gas, nitrogen oxides, and their mixtures for a wide range of conditions. C3MechCore (118 species) targets a more comprehensive range of C 0 –C 3 fuels, including ammonia, methanol, ethanol, and dimethyl ether. Both mechanisms demonstrate predictive accuracy comparable to C3MechV4.0 for the combustion characteristics of the target fuels. C3MechLite is designed with a component library structure, enabling further reduction in mechanism size depending on the fuel(s) of interest for 2D/3D numerical simulations. Various combinations of component libraries were validated, and the average prediction error remains within 1 % compared to C3MechLite. Furthermore, the mechanism was applied to 3D LES simulations of H 2 lifted flames and was confirmed to reproduce flame characteristics with high accuracy. C3MechLite and its component library structure enable high-fidelity and computationally efficient chemical kinetic mechanisms, paving the way for application in more complex combustion simulations.

Ammonia

Applying a Compact Porous Media Model to Numerically Derive Resistance Coefficients for Lattice Structures

Additive Manufacturing allows for exploring various geometries to achieve specific engineering criteria. Lattices are one geometry with unique properties, including being periodically repeating structures which allow flow through them to be represented as a porous media according to Darcy-Forchheimer equations. These equation’s coefficients are generally experimentally derived, but this work demonstrates the ability to numerically derive them with CFD. Simulations were performed using three-dimensional stead state Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes with a k-ω Shear Stress Transport turbulence model using Ansys Fluent. Three lattice geometries were investigated and drag coefficients were derived. The method was validated against externally published data for similar geometries demonstrating strong agreement, and grid convergence for all simulations was calculated with a Grid Convergence Index method. Wall roughness is demonstrated to have a non-negligible impact on results and roughness values are considered for the primary focus Octahedral geometry where both smooth wall and rough wall coefficients were derived. The porosity coefficients for the Octahedral geometry at 1.0 [m/s] were found to be 2.89×10 6 and 2.90×10 6 [1/(Pa*m*s)] for the permeability coefficients, 6.37×10 1 and 5.44×10 1 [m 2 /kg] for the inertial resistance coefficients, and with a max pressure drop of 5116.7 [Pa] and 4429.5 [Pa] for the smooth walls and rough walls, respectively. The derived numerical method enables rapid exploration and optimization of new lattice designs for diverse engineering applications.

42 ENGINEERING

A scoping study of far-SOL main-wall protection limiters for steady-state operation of compact pilot plant tokamaks

We present a novel method for handling steady-state heat fluxes incident on the main wall of pilot plant-scale magnetic fusion devices, based on the utilization of protection limiters in the far scrape-off layer (SOL). This method helps avoid large plasma-wall gaps, without excessively compromising blanket performance. We present an optimization algorithm for determining the appropriate size and scale of these protection limiters given (1) probability distributions of SOL plasma parameters and (2) assumed risk tolerance. As part of this optimization, we have developed an analytic description of parallel heat fluxes across limiter shadows, and an objective cost function (the ‘Far-SOL Marginal Cost’) to quantify the impact that different main-wall thermal management design choices have on reactor capital cost. Applying the model to a midscale fusion pilot plant concept shows that making use of far-SOL protection limiters can reduce capital costs on the order of $500 M, relative to naively increasing the plasma-wall gap. Our analysis demonstrates that the far-SOL power decay length is the highest-leverage plasma assumption for thermal loading of the first wall, and the primary cost driver for main wall thermal management. The relative cost efficiency of protection limiters increases as assumptions on the far-SOL heat flux become more pessimistic. The concepts described in this paper motivate the further development of far-SOL protection limiters as part of larger efforts to design economical core-edge-wall compatible solutions for a fusion pilot plant.

Design under uncertainty