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Second Interim Report NASA - easyJet Collaboration on the Human Factors Monitoring Program (HFMP) Study

This is the second interim report jointly prepared by NASA and easyJet on the work performed under the agreement to collaborate on a study of the factors entailed in flight and cabin-crew fatigue, and decreases in performance associated with fatigue. The objective of this Agreement is to generate reliable procedures that aid in understanding the levels and characteristics of flight and cabin-crew fatigue factors, both latent and proximate, whose confluence will likely result in unacceptable crew performance. This study entails the analyses of numerical and textual data collected during operational flights. NASA and easyJet are both interested in assessing and testing NASA s automated capabilities for extracting operationally significant information from very large, diverse (textual and numerical) databases; much larger than can be handled practically by human experts.

Srivistava, Ashok N.

NASA-easyJet Collaboration on the Human Factors Monitoring Program (HFMP) Study, Second Interim Report

This is the second interim report jointly prepared by NASA and easyJet on the work performed under the agreement to collaborate on a study of the factors entailed in flight- and cabin-crew fatigue and decreases in performance associated with fatigue. The objective of this Agreement is to generate reliable procedures that aid in understanding the levels and characteristics of flight- and cabin-crew fatigue factors, both latent and proximate, whose confluence will likely result in unacceptable crew performance. This study entails the analyses of numerical and textual data collected during operational flights.

Srivastava, Ashok N.

Improved CPAS Photogrammetric Capabilities for Engineering Development Unit (EDU) Testing

This paper focuses on two key improvements to the photogrammetric analysis capabilities of the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) for the Orion vehicle. The Engineering Development Unit (EDU) system deploys Drogue and Pilot parachutes via mortar, where an important metric is the muzzle velocity. This can be estimated using a high speed camera pointed along the mortar trajectory. The distance to the camera is computed from the apparent size of features of known dimension. This method was validated with a ground test and compares favorably with simulations. The second major photogrammetric product is measuring the geometry of the Main parachute cluster during steady-state descent using onboard cameras. This is challenging as the current test vehicles are suspended by a single-point attachment unlike earlier stable platforms suspended under a confluence fitting. The mathematical modeling of fly-out angles and projected areas has undergone significant revision. As the test program continues, several lessons were learned about optimizing the camera usage, installation, and settings to obtain the highest quality imagery possible.

Ray, Eric S.

First Annual Report: NASA-ONERA Collaboration on Human Factors in Aviation Accidents and Incidents

This is the first annual report jointly prepared by NASA and ONERA on the work performed under the agreement to collaborate on a study of the human factors entailed in aviation accidents and incidents particularly focused on consequences of decreases in human performance associated with fatigue. The objective of this Agreement is to generate reliable, automated procedures that improve understanding of the levels and characteristics of flight-crew fatigue factors whose confluence will likely result in unacceptable crew performance. This study entails the analyses of numerical and textual data collected during operational flights. NASA and ONERA are collaborating on the development and assessment of automated capabilities for extracting operationally significant information from very large, diverse (textual and numerical) databases much larger than can be handled practically by human experts. This report presents the approach that is currently expected to be used in processing and analyzing the data for identifying decrements in aircraft performance and examining their relationships to decrements in crewmember performance due to fatigue. The decisions on the approach were based on samples of both the numerical and textual data that will be collected during the four studies planned under the Human Factors Monitoring Program (HFMP). Results of preliminary analyses of these sample data are presented in this report.

Srivastava, Ashok

NASA Space Rocket Logistics Challenges

The Space Launch System (SLS) is the new NASA heavy lift launch vehicle and is scheduled for its first mission in 2017. The goal of the first mission, which will be uncrewed, is to demonstrate the integrated system performance of the SLS rocket and spacecraft before a crewed flight in 2021. SLS has many of the same logistics challenges as any other large scale program. Common logistics concerns for SLS include integration of discreet programs geographically separated, multiple prime contractors with distinct and different goals, schedule pressures and funding constraints. However, SLS also faces unique challenges. The new program is a confluence of new hardware and heritage, with heritage hardware constituting seventy-five percent of the program. This unique approach to design makes logistics concerns such as commonality especially problematic. Additionally, a very low manifest rate of one flight every four years makes logistics comparatively expensive. That, along with the SLS architecture being developed using a block upgrade evolutionary approach, exacerbates long-range planning for supportability considerations. These common and unique logistics challenges must be clearly identified and tackled to allow SLS to have a successful program. This paper will address the common and unique challenges facing the SLS programs, along with the analysis and decisions the NASA Logistics engineers are making to mitigate the threats posed by each.

Neeley, James R.

The Propagation of a Surge Front on Bering Glacier, Alaska, 2001-2011

Bering Glacier, Alaska, USA, has a 20 year surge cycle, with its most recent surge reaching the terminus in 2011. To study this most recent activity a time series of ice velocity maps was produced by applying optical feature-tracking methods to Landsat-7 ETM+ imagery spanning 2001-11. The velocity maps show a yearly increase in ice surface velocity associated with the down-glacier movement of a surge front. In 2008/09 the maximum ice surface velocity was 1.5 plus or minus 0.017 kilometers per a in the mid-ablation zone, which decreased to 1.2 plus or minus 0.015 kilometers per a in 2009/10 in the lower ablation zone, and then increased to nearly 4.4 plus or minus 0.03 kilometers per a in summer 2011 when the surge front reached the glacier terminus. The surge front propagated down-glacier as a kinematic wave at an average rate of 4.4 plus or minus 2.0 kilometers per a between September 2002 and April 2009, then accelerated to 13.9 plus or minus 2.0 kilometers per a as it entered the piedmont lobe between April 2009 and September 2010. Thewave seems to have initiated near the confluence of Bering Glacier and Bagley Ice Valley as early as 2001, and the surge was triggered in 2008 further down-glacier in the mid-ablation zone after the wave passed an ice reservoir area.

Alaska

Better Spectrometers, Beautiful Spectra and Confusion for All

The confluence of enormous improvements in submillimeter receivers and the development of powerful large scale observatories is about to force astrophysics and the sciences that support it to develop novel approaches for interpretation of data. The historical method of observing one or two lines and carefully analyzing them in the context of a simple model is now only applicable for distant objects where only a few lines are strong enough to be observable. Modern observatories collect many GHz of high signal-to-noise spectra in a single observation and in many cases, at sufficiently high spatial resolution to start resolving chemically distinct regions. The observatories planned for the near future and the inevitable upgrades of existing facilities will make large spectral data sets the rule rather than the exception in many areas of molecular astrophysics. The methodology and organization required to fully extract the available information and interpret these beautiful spectra represents a challenge to submillimeter astrophysics similar in magnitude to the last few decades of effort in improving receivers. The quality and abundance of spectra effectively prevents line-by-line analysis from being a time efficient proposition, however, global analysis of complex spectra is a science in its infancy. Spectroscopy at several other wavelengths have developed a number of techniques to analyze complex spectra, which can provide a great deal of guidance to the molecular astrophysics community on how to attack the complex spectrum problem. Ultimately, the challenge is one of organization, similar to building observatories, requiring teams of specialists combining their knowledge of dynamical, structural, chemical and radiative models with detailed knowledge in molecular physics and gas and grain surface chemistry to extract and exploit the enormous information content of complex spectra. This paper presents a spectroscopists view of the necessary elements in a tool for complex spectral analysis.

Spectral Analysis

NASA Space Flight Vehicle Fault Isolation Challenges

The Space Launch System (SLS) is the new NASA heavy lift launch vehicle and is scheduled for its first mission in 2017. The goal of the first mission, which will be uncrewed, is to demonstrate the integrated system performance of the SLS rocket and spacecraft before a crewed flight in 2021. SLS has many of the same logistics challenges as any other large scale program. Common logistics concerns for SLS include integration of discrete programs geographically separated, multiple prime contractors with distinct and different goals, schedule pressures and funding constraints. However, SLS also faces unique challenges. The new program is a confluence of new hardware and heritage, with heritage hardware constituting seventy-five percent of the program. This unique approach to design makes logistics concerns such as testability of the integrated flight vehicle especially problematic. The cost of fully automated diagnostics can be completely justified for a large fleet, but not so for a single flight vehicle. Fault detection is mandatory to assure the vehicle is capable of a safe launch, but fault isolation is another issue. SLS has considered various methods for fault isolation which can provide a reasonable balance between adequacy, timeliness and cost. This paper will address the analyses and decisions the NASA Logistics engineers are making to mitigate risk while providing a reasonable testability solution for fault isolation.

Bramon, Christopher

A Process for Capturing the Art of Systems Engineering

There is both an art and a science to systems engineering. The science of systems engineering is effectively captured in processes and procedures, but the art is much more elusive. We propose that there is six step process that can be applied to any systems engineering organization to create an environment from which the "art" of that organization can be captured, be allowed to evolve collaboratively and be shared with all members of the organization. This paper details this process as it was applied to NASA Launch Services Program (LSP) Integration Engineering Branch during a pilot program of Confluence, a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) wiki tool.

Commercial Off The Shelf

A Quantum Annealing Computer Team Addresses Climate Change Predictability

The near confluence of the successful launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 on July 2, 2014 and the acceptance on August 20, 2015 by Google, NASA Ames Research Center and USRA of a 1152 qubit D-Wave 2X Quantum Annealing Computer (QAC), offered an exceptional opportunity to explore the potential of this technology to address the scientific prediction of global annual carbon uptake by land surface processes. At UMBC,we have collected and processed 20 months of global Level 2 light CO2 data as well as fluorescence data. In addition we have collected ARM data at 2sites in the US and Ameriflux data at more than 20 stations. J. Dorband has developed and implemented a multi-hidden layer Boltzmann Machine (BM) algorithm on the QAC. Employing the BM, we are calculating CO2 fluxes by training collocated OCO-2 level 2 CO2 data with ARM ground station tower data to infer to infer measured CO2 flux data. We generate CO2 fluxes with a regression analysis using these BM derived weights on the level 2 CO2 data for three Ameriflux sites distinct from the ARM stations. P. Gentine has negotiated for the access of K34 Ameriflux data in the Amazon and is applying a neural net to infer the CO2 fluxes. N. Talik validated the accuracy of the BM performance on the QAC against a restricted BM implementation on the IBM Softlayer Cloud with the Nvidia co-processors utilizing the same data sets. G. Nearing and K. Harrison have extended the GSFC LIS model with the NCAR Noah photosynthetic parameterization and have run a 10 year global prediction of the net ecosystem exchange. C. Pellisier is preparing a BM implementation of the Kalman filter data assimilation of CO2 fluxes. At UMBC, R. Prouty is conducting OSSE experiments with the LISNoah model on the IBM iDataPlex to simulate the impact of CO2 fluxes to improve the prediction of global annual carbon uptake. J. LeMoigne and D. Simpson have developed a neural net image registration system that will be used for MODIS ENVI and will be converted to a BM algorithm implementation on the QAC. The first integer adder has been implemented on the D-Wave 2X by A. Shehab that will perform HAAR wavelets for image compression of MODIS scenes. Finally, based on the next generations of QACs, we are preparing a 5-year performance road map on the scalability of the current QAC algorithms.

Science Data Processing

Overcoming the Adoption Barrier to Electric Flight

Electrically-powered aircraft can enable dramatic increases in efficiency and reliability, reduced emissions, and reduced noise as compared to today's combustion-powered aircraft. This paper describes a novel flight demonstration concept that will enable the benefits of electric propulsion, while keeping the extraordinary convenience and utility of common fuels available at today's airports. A critical gap in airborne electric propulsion research is addressed by accommodating adoption at the integrated aircraft-airport systems level, using a confluence of innovative but proven concepts and technologies in power generation and electricity storage that need to reside only on the airframe. Technical discriminators of this demonstrator concept include (1) a novel, high-efficiency power system that utilizes advanced solid oxide fuel cells originally developed for ultra-long-endurance aircraft, coupled with (2) a high-efficiency, high-power electric propulsion system selected from mature products to reduce technical risk, assembled into (3) a modern, high-performance demonstration platform to provide useful and compelling data, both for the targeted early adopters and the eventual commercial market.

Borer, Nicholas K.

Backwater Flooding in San Marcos, TX from the Blanco River

Large sections of San Marcos, TX were flooded in Oct. 1998, May 2015, and Oct. 2015. Much of the flooding in Oct. 1998 and Oct. 2015 was produced by overbank flooding of San Marcos River and its tributaries by spills from upstream dams. The May 2015 flooding was almost entirely produced by backwater flooding from the Blanco River whose confluence is approximately 2.2 miles southeast of downtown. We use the stage height of the Blanco River to generate maps of the areas of San Marcos that are lower than the flood peaks and compare those results with data for the observed extent of flooding in San Marcos. Our preliminary results suggest that the flooding occurred at locations more than 20 feet lower than the maximum stage height of the Blanco River at San Marcos gage (08171350). This suggest that the datum for either gage 08171350 or 08170500 (San Marcos River at San Marcos) or both are incorrect. There are plans for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to construct a Blanco River bypass that will divert Blanco River floodwaters approximately 2 miles farther downstream, but the $60 million price makes its implementation problematic.

Earl, Richard

Supercomputing in the Age of Discovering Superearths, Earths and Exoplanet Systems

NASA's Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASA's first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 1000 planets and over 4600 candidates, many of them as small as the Earth. Today, Kepler's amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing.

exoplanet

Chasing Exoplanets

NASA's Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASA's first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 1000 planets and over 4600 candidates, many of them as small as the Earth. Today, Kepler's amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing.

Kepler Mission

Prospecting for Habitable Worlds

NASAs Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASAs first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 2200 planets and over 2200 candidate planets, many of them as small as the Earth. Forty nine of these are less than twice the size of Earth and orbit in the habitable zone of their stars, all of which are cooler and significantly smaller than the Sun.Today, Keplers amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Indeed, demonstrating that the science was feasible took four proposals to NASAs Discovery Program and extensive research and laboratory demonstrations. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing. On August 23 2015 we reported the discovery of Kepler-452b, the first small, possibly rocky planet in the habitable zone of a G2 star very similar to our own. Kepler-452b orbits its star once every 385 days in an orbit just 5 larger than that of Earth. This discovery represents an important step towards finding and characterizing small habitable worlds orbiting Sun-like stars.

Jenkins, Jon M.

Prospecting for Habitable Planets

NASA's Kepler Mission was launched in March 2009 as NASA's first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, that range of distances for which liquid water would pool on the surface of a rocky planet. Kepler has discovered over 1000 planets and over 4600 candidates, many of them as small as the Earth. Today, Kepler's amazing success seems to be a fait accompli to those unfamiliar with her history. But twenty years ago, there were no planets known outside our solar system, and few people believed it was possible to detect tiny Earth-size planets orbiting other stars. Motivating NASA to select Kepler for launch required a confluence of the right detector technology, advances in signal processing and algorithms, and the power of supercomputing.

Kepler Mission

Ontologies for Aviation Data Management

Managing complex aviation data can be a significant challenge for any enterprise – whether a government agency, airline, airframe manufacturer, or aviation service provider. To handle this challenge, data models are typically developed to characterize and manage the data generated, used, and stored by a given enterprise. Unfortunately, different data providers employ qualitatively different data models, and this gives rise to problems exchanging data across organizational boundaries. Over the past decade, these problems have motivated data producers and consumers to look toward standardized data exchange models to address data interoperability. In this paper we examine some of these standardized data exchange models and compare them with a new type of data model based on ontologies. Ontology models have emerged in recent years from a confluence of research in the artificial intelligence, semantic web, and information science communities. This paper introduces ontology models, provides several use cases for ontologies relevant to aviation data management, and summarizes state of the art aviation prototype applications that utilize ontologies.

artificial intelligence

Using the Hottest Particles in the Universe to Probe Icy Solar System Worlds

We present results of our Phase 1 NIAC Study to determine the feasibility of developing a competitive, low cost, low power, low mass passive instrument to measure ice depth on outer planet ice moons, such as Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, and Enceladus. Indirect measurements indicate that liquid water oceans are likely present beneath the icy shells of such moons (see e.g.,the JPL press release "The Solar System and Beyond is Awash in Water"), which has important astrobiological implications. Determining the thickness of these ice shells is challenging given spacecraft SWaP (Size, Weight and Power) resources. The current approach uses a suite of instruments, including a high power, massive ice penetrating radar. The instrument under study, called PRIDE (Passive Radio Ice Depth Experiment) exploits a remarkable confluence between methods from the high energy particle physics and the search for extraterrestrial life within the solar system. PRIDE is a passive receiver of a naturally occurring radio frequency (RF) signal generated by interactions of deep penetrating Extremely High Energy (> 10^18 eV) cosmic ray neutrinos. It could measure ice thickness directly, and at a significant savings to spacecraft resources. At RF frequencies the transparency of modeled Europan ice is up to many km, so an RF sensor in orbit can observe neutrino interactions to great depths, and thereby probe the thickness of the ice layer.

Exploration