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NASA NTRS2005

Wavy and Cycloidal Lineament Formation on Europa from Combined Diurnal and Nonsynchronous Stresses

In a companion abstract, we show that fractures propagated into combined diurnal and nonsynchronous rotation (NSR) stress fields can be cycloidal, "wavy," or arcuate in planform as the relative proportion of NSR stress in increased. These transitions occur as NSR stress accumulates over approx. 0 to 10 deg of ice shell rotation, for average fracture propagation speeds of approx. 1 to 3 m/s. Here we consider the NSR speed parameter space for these morphological transitions, and explore the effects on cycloids of adding NSR to diurnal stress. Fitting individual Europan lineaments can constrain the combined NSR plus diurnal stress field at the time of formation.

Gleeson, Damhnait↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Inverse Chance-constrained Approach to the Calibration of Robust Models

This paper proposes a strategy to calibrate computational models according to uncertain input-output data. To this end, uncertainty in the data is first quantified by creating adversarial data sets. Samples drawn from such sets are then mapped from the input-output space to the parameter space using an inverse mapping. This mapping minimizes the collective output spread of an ensemble of point predictions while satisfying a set of individual data-matching requirements. The distribution of the resulting parameter points, which often exhibits strong parameter dependencies, is then modeled using sliced-normals. The chance-constrained formulation used to learn this distribution enables the analyst to trade-off a greater likelihood for most of the data against a lower likelihood for some of the data thereby relaxing the conservatism of the calibrated model. This formulation not only neglects the worst-performing quantiles of each adversarial distribution but also eliminates the potentially serious effects that outliers might have on the resulting model. This calibration approach not only has a considerably lower computational cost than the standard forward approach but it also allows for the identification of suitable distribution classes, which in turn yield better calibrated models.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an integrated modeling framework for investigating 3D plasma responses in tokamak plasmas

As contemporary experimental tokamaks are pushed toward reactor-relevant operation, they provide essential testbeds for demonstrating and exploring ELM control strategies for deployment in future fusion pilot plants. Accurate predictions of full plasma responses are essential to guide and optimize these demonstrations. This paper introduces and validates an integrated modeling framework over a historical range of DIII-D operational space. The integrated modeling framework uses only scalar plasma parameters and optional reference boundary to self-consistently and flexibly scan through tokamak operational space and estimate the corresponding ELM-suppression relevant plasma response over 3D coil phase space. The framework generates tightly converged equilibria that satisfy a target set of plasma parameters (I p , β N , l i ), with kinetic profiles constrained by an EPED(NN)-computed pedestal and empirical core model. The plasma response of these modeled equilibria is calculated with GPEC. Validated against 55 distinct DIII-D equilibria, the framework consistently reproduces experimentally constrained equilibrium pressure, q, and other representative profiles using the time-varying information from only evolving scalar plasma parameters; plasma response validation is performed for the n=3 perturbation. In particular, the plasma response of a DIII-D discharge scanning q 95 in search of ELM suppression windows is quantitatively reproduced. By accurately reproducing experimental equilibria and plasma responses across wide parameter variation, the framework supports potential for synthetic parameter scans in key operational, stability, and plasma response dimensions to investigate RMP ELM-suppression experiments and inform predictive RMP scenario optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Inhomogeneous chemical evolution of the Galactic disk

We present analytical models for inhomogeneous chemical evolution (ICE) of systems in which the star formation history resembles a series of bursts, localized in space and/or time, with intermittent periods of remixing. The additional parameter of this model is the metallicity increment of bursting subsystems, but this parameter is constrained by the spread in the age-metallicity relation. We apply this model to the solar annulus in the Galactic disk and show that ICE models yield an improved fit to the observed shape of the stellar abundance distribution function (ADF). The G-dwarf problem can be alleviated with ICE models, but infall of metal poor gas and/or some preenrichment of the disk during the epoch of protogalactic evolution is still required to explain the paucity of low-metallicity dwarfs. ICE models also suggest an explanation of the reduced frequency of metal-rich G-dwarfs relative to the predictions of the simple model. It does not seem likely that chemical evolution of the solar annulus proceeded in a medium that was well-mixed at all times.

Malinie, Guy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Physical Model of Moulin Formation and Evolution

Nearly all proglacial water discharge from the present-day Greenland Ice Sheet is routed englacially via moulins. Identification of these moulins in high-resolution imagery is a frequent topic of study, but the processes controlling how and where moulins form, including on past ice sheets for which remote-sensing data are not available, remain poorly understood. Because moulins may reasonably compose approximately 10-15% of the englacial-subglacial hydrologic system, the evolution and shape of moulins can alter the timing of meltwater inputs to the bed. This evolution can impact both the form of the subglacial hydrologic system and the structure of associated geomorphological structures. Here, we develop a physical model of moulin formation and evolution to constrain the role of englacial processes in controlling the form and structure of the subglacial hydrologic system. Ice deformation within and around a moulin is both viscous and elastic, with the rate of turbulent and heat dissipation from water circulation in the moulin controlling both moulin wall melting and warming of the surrounding ice. We find moulin geometry is responsive to changes in these parameters over hours to days, indicating that diurnal and multi-day variations in surface melt can substantially alter the geometry of a moulin and the pressure-discharge relationship at the bed of the ice sheet. These results should be considered carefully when determining surface water inputs for subglacial hydrologic models. In the future, a parameter space study of these results will be combined with an analytic model to create a predictive, stochastic model of moulin and crevasse locations. This future model will be applicable to constraining the potential for surface-to-bed connections in regions where the exact ice-sheet surface morphology is not known, including ice sheets under future warming atmospheric conditions, and paleo ice sheets, where moulins created modern landforms.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Binning is Sinning (Supernova Version): The Impact of Self-calibration in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia Supernovae

Recent cosmological analyses (e.g., JLA, Pantheon) of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have propagated systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix and either binned or smoothed the systematic uncertainty vectors in redshift space. We demonstrate that systematic error budgets of these analyses can be improved by a factor of ~ 1.5 × with the use of unbinned and unsmoothed covariance matrices. To understand this, we employ a separate approach that simultaneously fits for cosmological parameters and additional self-calibrating scale parameters that constrain the size of each systematic. We show that the covariance-matrix approach and scale-parameter approach indeed yield equivalent results, implying that in both cases the data can self-calibrate certain systematic uncertainties, but that this ability is hindered when information is binned or smoothed in redshift space. We review the top systematic uncertainties in current analyses and find that the reduction of systematic uncertainties in the unbinned case depends on whether a systematic is solely degenerate with the cosmological model in redshift space or whether it can be described by additional correlations between supernova properties and luminosity. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-calibration increases with the size of the data set, which presents a tremendous opportunity for upcoming analyses of photometrically classified samples, like those of Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (NGRST). However, to take advantage of self-calibration in large, photometrically classified samples, we must first address the issue that binning is required in currently used photometric analysis methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Properties of first-order hadron-quark phase transition from inverting neutron star observables

By inverting the observational data of several neutron star observables in the three-dimensional parameter space of the constant speed of sound (CSS) model while fixing all hadronic equation-of-state parameters at their currently known most probable values, we constrain the three parameters of the CSS model and their correlations. Using two lower radius limits of $R$ $2.01$ = $11.41$ km and $R$ $2.01$ = $12.2$ km for PSR J0740+6620 obtained from two independent analyses using different approaches by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) Collaboration, the speed of sound squared $c$ $^2_{QM}$ in quark matter is found to have a lower limit of 0.35 or 0.43 in units of $c$ $2$ , above its conformal limit of $c$ $^2_{QM}$ < $1/3$. Furthermore, an approximately linear correlation between the first-order hadron-quark transition density $ρ$ $t$ and its strength $Δε$ is found. Moreover, the presence of twin stars is deemed improbable by the present work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Revisiting leptonic nonunitarity

In the presence of extra neutrino states at high scales, the low-energy effective 3 × 3 leptonic mixing matrix (LMM) is in general nonunitary. We revisit the question of what is our current knowledge of individual LMM matrix elements without assuming unitarity. We first demonstrate that a minimal set of experimental constraints suffices in bounding LMM nonunitarity parameters to the level of O ( 10 − 3 ) , without the use of neutrino oscillation data. We then revisit oscillation results as a complementary cross-check, using different physics and different experimental techniques to probe a similar parameter space. We correct some common misconceptions in the neutrino nonunitarity literature resulting from an incautious treatment of input parameters. We find that neutrino oscillation experiments can constrain LMM nonclosure, but, contrary to claims in the literature, are completely insensitive to the overall normalization of the LMM. Thus, we conclude that oscillation experiments, including the future DUNE experiment, have no power in excluding nonunitarity altogether. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS1976

A method and data for video monitor sizing

The paper outlines an approach consisting of using analytical methods and empirical data to determine monitor size constraints based on the human operator's CRT viewing requirements in a context where panel space and volume considerations for the Space Shuttle aft cabin constrain the size of the monitor to be used. Two cases are examined: remote scene imaging and alphanumeric character display. The central parameter used to constrain monitor size is the ratio M/L where M is the monitor dimension and L the viewing distance. The study is restricted largely to 525 line video systems having an SNR of 32 db and bandwidth of 4.5 MHz. Degradation in these parameters would require changes in the empirically determined visual angle constants presented. The data and methods described are considered to apply to cases where operators are required to view via TV target objects which are well differentiated from the background and where the background is relatively sparse. It is also necessary to identify the critical target dimensions and cues.

Kirkpatrick, M., III↗

NASA NTRS2021

Safe Tracking Control of an Uncertain Euler-Lagrange System with Full-State Constraints using Barrier Functions

This paper presents a novel, safe tracking control design method that learns the parameters of an uncertain Euler-Lagrange (EL) system online using adaptive learning laws. A barrier function (BF) is first used to transform the full-state constrained EL-dynamics into an equivalent unconstrained dynamics. An adaptive tracking controller is then developed along with the parameter update law in the transformed state space such that the states remain bounded for all time within a prescribed bound. A stability analysis is developed that considers the EL-dynamics’ uncertainty, yielding a semi-globally uniformly ultimately bounded (SGUUB) tracking error and the parameter estimation error. The controller design is validated in simulations using a two-link planar manipulator. The results show the proposed method’s ability to track the reference trajectory while remaining inside each of the predefined state bounds.

Robots↗

DOE OSTI2025

Boosting H I -Galaxy Cross-Clustering Signal through Higher-Order Cross-Correlations

After reionization, neutral hydrogen (${\rm H\, \small {I}}$) traces the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe, enabling ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ intensity mapping (IM) to capture the LSS in 3D and constrain key cosmological parameters. We present a new framework utilizing higher-order cross-correlations to study ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ clustering around galaxies, tested using real-space data from the IllustrisTNG300 simulation. This approach computes the joint distributions of k-nearest neighbor (kNN) optical galaxies and the ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ brightness temperature field smoothed at relevant scales (the kNN-field framework), providing sensitivity to all higher-order cross-correlations, unlike two-point statistics. To simulate ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ data from actual surveys, we add random thermal noise and apply a simple foreground cleaning model, filtering out Fourier modes of the brightness temperature field with k ∥ < k min,∥ . Under current levels of thermal noise and foreground cleaning, typical of a Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME)-like survey, the ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$-galaxy cross-correlation signal in our simulations, using the kNN-field framework, is detectable at >30σ across r = [3, 12] h –1 Mpc. In contrast, the detectability of the standard two-point correlation function (2PCF) over the same scales depends strongly on the foreground filter: a sharp k ∥ filter can spuriously boost detection to 8σ due to position-space ringing, whereas a less sharp filter yields no detection. Nonetheless, we conclude that kNN-field cross-correlations are robustly detectable across a broad range of foreground filtering and thermal noise conditions, suggesting their potential for enhanced constraining power over 2PCFs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity of Anthropogenic Cloud Droplet Number Change to Preindustrial Emission Inventories and Physics Parameterizations

Understanding the preindustrial (PI) to present-day (PD) change in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd) is important to constrain the anthropogenic influence on clouds and aid future model projections. Perturbed parameter ensemble simulations of PI and PD conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv3) reveal two locations with consistent negative ΔNd signal across parameter space–the Southeastern US and the United Kingdom–despite a trend of positive ΔNd globally from increased fossil fuel consumption. These negative ΔNd signals are driven by higher anthropogenic biofuel emissions in the PI. By varying the PI aerosol mass and/or number emissions across these data sets' uncertainty ranges, we can change the magnitude and sign of ΔNd and the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) regionally and globally, with near-zero ΔNd leading to near-zero ERFaci. These results highlight the need to constrain PI emission uncertainty to better understand Earth system responses to aerosol-cloud interactions.

Brown, Hunter Y. [University of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Impact experimentation and the microgravity environment: An overview

Impact is an ubiquitous physical process in the solar system. It occurs on all solid bodies and operates over a spectrum of scales, influencing geologic processes ranging from accretion, the early evolution of planetary bodies, the petrogenetic and spatial relations of lunar samples, the surface characteristics and interpretation of spectral data of asteroidal bodies, to the nature of some meteorites. Understanding impact phenomena is therefore paramount in constraining and underpinning a large number of research efforts into fundamental planetary geology. Gravity is an important parameter in impact processes. The physical environment offered by the Space Station represents an unique opportunity to extend the experimental aspect of impact studies into the microgravity (less than 1 g) regime. Through the use of free floating targets, it may be possible to explore in detail phenomena associated with the collision of bodies. Such experiments can address questions regarding early and late accretional processes, catastrophic disruption and asteroidal evolution, as well as the effects of large impacts on the momentum and spin of the target bodies. The last question is of considerable topical interest with respect to the hypothesized origin of the moon by a Mars-sized impact on Earth.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Constraining scale dependent growth with redshift surveys

Ongoing and future redshift surveys have the capability to measure the growth rate of large scale structure at the percent level over a broad range of redshifts, tightly constraining cosmological parameters. Beyond general relativity, however, the growth rate in the linear density perturbation regime can be not only redshift dependent but scale dependent, revealing important clues to modified gravity. We demonstrate that a fully model independent approach of binning the gravitational strength G eff (k,z) matches scalar-tensor results for the growth rate fσ 8 (k,z) to 0.02%–0.27% rms accuracy. For data of the quality of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) we find the bin values can be constrained to 1.4%–28%. We also explore the general scalar-tensor form, constraining the amplitude and past and future scalaron mass/shape parameters. Perhaps most interesting is the strong complementarity of low redshift peculiar velocity data with DESI-like redshift space distortion measurements, enabling improvements up to a factor 6–7 on 2D joint confidence contour areas. Finally, we quantify some issues with gravity parametrizations that do not include all the key physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optically targeted search for gravitational waves emitted by core-collapse supernovae during the first and second observing runs of advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo

In this work, we present the results from a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernovae observed within a source distance of approximately 20 Mpc during the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. No significant gravitational-wave candidate was detected. We report the detection efficiencies as a function of the distance for waveforms derived from multidimensional numerical simulations and phenomenological extreme emission models. Furthermore, the sources with neutrino-driven explosions are detectable at the distances approaching 5 kpc, and for magnetorotationally driven explosions the distances are up to 54 kpc. However, waveforms for extreme emission models are detectable up to 28 Mpc. For the first time, the gravitational-wave data enabled us to exclude part of the parameter spaces of two extreme emission models with confidence up to 83%, limited by coincident data coverage. Besides, using ad hoc harmonic signals windowed with Gaussian envelopes, we constrained the gravitational-wave energy emitted during core collapse at the levels of 4.27×10 -4 M ⊙ c 2 and 1.28×10 -1 M ⊙ c 2 for emissions at 235 and 1304 Hz, respectively. These constraints are 2 orders of magnitude more stringent than previously derived in the corresponding analysis using initial LIGO, initial Virgo, and GEO 600 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2020

Optically targeted search for gravitational waves emitted by core-collapse supernovae during the first and second observing runs of advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo

We present the results from a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernovae observed within a source distance of approximately 20 Mpc during the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. No significant gravitational-wave candidate was detected. We report the detection efficiencies as a function of the distance for waveforms derived from multidimensional numerical simulations and phenomenological extreme emission models. The sources with neutrino-driven explosions are detectable at the distances approaching 5 kpc, and for magnetorotationally driven explosions the distances are up to 54 kpc. However, waveforms for extreme emission models are detectable up to 28 Mpc. For the first time, the gravitational-wave data enabled us to exclude part of the parameter spaces of two extreme emission models with confidence up to 83%, limited by coincident data coverage. Besides, using ad hoc harmonic signals windowed with Gaussian envelopes, we constrained the gravitational-wave energy emitted during core collapse at the levels of 4.27 × 10^(−4) Mꙩc^(2) and 1.28 × 10^(−1) Mꙩc^(2) for emissions at 235 and 1304 Hz, respectively. These constraints are 2 orders of magnitude more stringent than previously derived in the corresponding analysis using initial LIGO, initial Virgo, and GEO 600 data.

B. P. Abbott↗