Flight software trends and patterns in the aerospace industry: JPL lessons learned
In this paper, we will summarize the software trends and their impact on the cost of developing flight and ground software.
software trends↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Technoeconomic Benefits of Film-Forming Amine Products Applied to Steam Surface Condensers
In a conventional Rankine cycle, the majority of power plants employ surface condensers that use pumped cooling water to reject heat from the cycle. In such cases, heat rejection occurs in a shell and tube heat exchanger by film-wise condensation of low-pressure steam on stainless steel, titanium, brass, or copper-nickel tubing. To improve the thermal performance of steam surface condensers, a replenishable film-forming substance (FFS) can be ap-plied to the condenser tubing to promote efficient dropwise condensation. Conventionally, film-forming amine prod-uct (FFAP) coatings protect boiler surfaces from oxidative corrosion, which substantially reduces the operation and maintenance costs. To quantify the technical and economic benefits of FFAP coatings applied to condenser tubing due to the promotion of dropwise condensation, a thermal resistance network model was established. Using a rep-resentative steam surface condenser, the improvements in thermal performance (overall heat transfer coefficient) and process parameters (net plant efficiency, cooling water flowrate, and turbine backpressure) were determined due to the enhancement in the condensation heat transfer coefficient. Experimentally measured condensation heat transfer coefficients for common condenser materials were compared with the modeling results and were found to be within attainable bounds. Lastly, the trend in total heat exchanger cost reduction is generalized to understand the trade-off between reduced surface area for heat rejection and increase in coating application costs for a re-plenishable coating system.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals
This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Pi-Sat: A Low Cost Small Satellite and Distributed Spacecraft Mission System Test Platform
Current technology and budget trends indicate a shift in satellite architectures from large, expensive single satellite missions, to small, low cost distributed spacecraft missions. At the center of this shift is the SmallSatCubesat architecture. The primary goal of the Pi-Sat project is to create a low cost, and easy to use Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) test bed to facilitate the research and development of next-generation DSM technologies and concepts. This test bed also serves as a realistic software development platform for Small Satellite and Cubesat architectures. The Pi-Sat is based on the popular $35 Raspberry Pi single board computer featuring a 700Mhz ARM processor, 512MB of RAM, a flash memory card, and a wealth of IO options. The Raspberry Pi runs the Linux operating system and can easily run Code 582s Core Flight System flight software architecture. The low cost and high availability of the Raspberry Pi make it an ideal platform for a Distributed Spacecraft Mission and Cubesat software development. The Pi-Sat models currently include a Pi-Sat 1U Cube, a Pi-Sat Wireless Node, and a Pi-Sat Cubesat processor card.The Pi-Sat project takes advantage of many popular trends in the Maker community including low cost electronics, 3d printing, and rapid prototyping in order to provide a realistic platform for flight software testing, training, and technology development. The Pi-Sat has also provided fantastic hands on training opportunities for NASA summer interns and Pathways students.
Software↗
Minimal implicit-solvent coarse-grained simulation of Pluronic block copolymers with ionic liquids
Pluronic block copolymers, composed of poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) and poly(propylene oxide) (PPO) in a triblock structure (PEO–PPO–PEO), are well known for their amphiphilic character and ability to self‐assemble into micelles in aqueous solution. The addition of ionic liquids (ILs) can further modulate the core–shell structures of these copolymers, influencing their stability, critical micellization temperature, and size. However, fully atomistic simulations often become prohibitively expensive due to the size and complexity of these systems. In this work, coarse‐grained simulations using a minimal implicit‐solvent model were performed to examine how two classes of ILs, namely, 1‐alkyl‐3‐methylimidazolium ([C n C 1 im]) and 1‐alkyl‐3‐methylpyrrolidinium ([C n C 1 pyrr]), change the micellization of Pluronic block copolymers in aqueous solution. The effects of IL concentration and alkyl group length were investigated, and the model greatly improved the efficiency of simulating large‐scale micelle systems. Furthermore, the numerical simulations are qualitatively compared with experimental investigations. Our results show that adding ILs expands the micelle core by embedding IL tails among the PPO blocks, thereby increasing overall micelle size. Less polar ILs generally induce more pronounced micellar growth. However, the effect of IL tail length on conformation and micellar packing is non‐monotonic. Up to moderate chain lengths (around C8–C10), the IL tails can extend sufficiently to increase local separation within the micelle; at longer tail lengths, enhanced hydrophobic clustering and steric hindrance cause the tails to bend or fold, capping further expansion. In addition, although block copolymer chains tend to pack more closely in the presence of longer‐tailed ILs, the random coil size of an individual polymer chain does not necessarily shrink. Meanwhile, these insights provide a deeper understanding of how Pluronic/IL systems interact, informing applications in drug delivery, cosmetics, food, and environmental engineering. Finally, our minimal implicit‐solvent model can be applied to larger systems and longer timescales, substantially reducing computational cost while reproducing key structural trends observed experimentally.
Atomistic simulations↗
Applications of the real-time data analysis system in the Ames 40- by 80-foot wind tunnel
The first major overhaul and refurbishment of the Ames 40- by 80-foot wind tunnel since it was put into operation in 1944 was recently completed. A substantial part of this refurbishment was devoted to providing this wind tunnel with a modern real time data acquisition and analysis system to increase the safety, efficiency, and accuracy of experimental investigations in this facility. Background leading to the requirements for the new system, major elements of the system, and some of the applications of the system are summarized. The potential of computerized data acquisition systems for wind tunnels in terms of long term trends in hardware and software costs, and the constraints which must be dealt with to achieve the full potential of computerized data acquisition systems are discussed.
Kelly, M. W.↗
Preliminary design study of advanced multistage axial flow core compressors
A preliminary design study was conducted to identify an advanced core compressor for use in new high-bypass-ratio turbofan engines to be introduced into commercial service in the 1980's. An evaluation of anticipated compressor and related component 1985 state-of-the-art technology was conducted. A parametric screening study covering a large number of compressor designs was conducted to determine the influence of the major compressor design features on efficiency, weight, cost, blade life, aircraft direct operating cost, and fuel usage. The trends observed in the parametric screening study were used to develop three high-efficiency, high-economic-payoff compressor designs. These three compressors were studied in greater detail to better evaluate their aerodynamic and mechanical feasibility.
Wisler, D. C.↗
Preliminary design study of a baseline MIUS
Results of a conceptual design study to establish a baseline design for a modular integrated utility system (MIUS) are presented. The system concept developed a basis for evaluating possible projects to demonstrate an MIUS. For the baseline study, climate conditions for the Washington, D.C., area were used. The baseline design is for a high density apartment complex of 496 dwelling units with a planned full occupancy of approximately 1200 residents. Environmental considerations and regulations for the MIUS installation are discussed. Detailed cost data for the baseline MIUS are given together with those for design and operating variations under climate conditions typified by Las Vegas, Nevada, Houston, Texas, and Minneapolis, Minnesota. In addition, results of an investigation of size variation effects, for 300 and 1000 unit apartment complexes, are presented. Only conceptual aspects of the design are discussed. Results regarding energy savings and costs are intended only as trend information and for use in relative comparisons. Alternate heating, ventilation, and air conditioning concepts are considered in the appendix.
Wolfer, B. M.↗
Comments on TEC trends
The paper comments on published and projected thermionic-energy-conversion (TEC) performance trends. This commentary includes graphs and an appendix relating TEC performance parameters, plots of predicted and actual TEC trends, a figure relating projected cost of electricity to overall efficiency for TEC topping, and a discussion of the implications of these relationships.
Morris, J. F.↗
Coal liquefaction processes and development requirements analysis for synthetic fuels production
Focus of the study is on: (1) developing a technical and programmatic data base on direct and indirect liquefaction processes which have potential for commercialization during the 1980's and beyond, and (2) performing analyses to assess technology readiness and development trends, development requirements, commercial plant costs, and projected synthetic fuel costs. Numerous data sources and references were used as the basis for the analysis results and information presented.
Source record↗
Enhanced Formation Flying for the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) New Millennium Mission
With scientific objectives for Earth observation programs becoming more ambitious and spacecraft becoming more autonomous, the need for new technical approaches on the feasibility of achieving and maintaining formations of spacecraft has come to the forefront. The trend to develop small low cost spacecraft has led many scientists to recognize the advantage of flying several spacecraft in formation, an example of which is shown in the figure below, to achieve the correlated instrument measurements formerly possible only by flying many instruments on a single large platform. Yet, formation flying imposes additional complications on orbit maintenance, especially when each spacecraft has its own orbit requirements. However, advances in automation proposed by GSFC Codes 550 and 712 allow more of the burden in maneuver planning and execution to be placed onboard the spacecraft, mitigating some of the associated operational concerns. The purpose of this analysis is to develop the fundamentals of formation flying mechanics, concepts for understanding the relative motion of free flying spacecraft, and an operational control theory for formation maintenance of the Earth Observing-1 (EO-l) spacecraft that is part of the New Millennium. Results of this development can be used to determine the appropriateness of formation flying for a particular case as well as the operational impacts. Applications to the Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) Earth Observing System (EOS) and New Millennium (NM) were highly considered in analysis and applications. This paper presents the proposed methods for the guidance and control of the EO-1 spacecraft to formation fly with the Landsat-7 spacecraft using an autonomous closed loop three axis navigation control, GPS, and Cross link navigation support. Simulation results using various fidelity levels of modeling, algorithms developed and implemented in MATLAB, and autonomous 'fuzzy logic' control using AutoCon will be presented. The results of these analysis on the ability to meet mission and formation flying requirements will be presented.
Folta, David↗
Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets
The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.
Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗
The scaling relationship between telescope cost and aperture size for very large telescopes
Cost data for ground-based telescopes of the last century are analyzed for trends in the relationship between aperture size and cost. We find that for apertures built prior to 1980, costs scaled as aperture size to the 2.8 power, which is consistent with the precious finding of Meinel (1978). After 1980, 'traditional' monolithic mirror telescope costs have scaled as aperture to the 2.5 power. The large multiple mirror telescopes built or in construction during this time period (Keck, LBT, GTC) appear to deviate from this relationship with significant cost savings as a result, although it is unclear what power law such structures follow. We discuss the implications of the current cost-aperture size data on the proposed large telescope projects of the next ten to twenty years. Structures that naturally tend towards the 2.0 power in the cost-aperture relationship will be the favorable choice for future extremely large apertures; out expectation is that space-based structures will ultimately gain economic advantage over ground-based ones.
telescope costs↗
A Low Cost Single Chip VDL Compatible Transceiver ASIC
Recent trends in commercial communications system components have focussed almost exclusively on cellular telephone technology. As many of the traditional sources of receiver components have discontinued non-cellular telephone products, the designers of avionics and other low volume radio applications find themselves increasingly unable to find highly integrated components. This is particularly true for low power, low cost applications which cannot afford the lavish current consumption of the software defined radio approach increasingly taken by certified device manufacturers. In this paper, we describe a low power transceiver chip targeting applications from low VHF to low UHF frequencies typical of avionics systems. The chip encompasses a selectable single or double conversion design for the receiver and a low power IF upconversion transmitter. All local oscillators are synthesized and integrated into the chip. An on-chip I-Q modulator and demodulator provide baseband modulation and demodulation capability allowing the use of low power, fixed point signal processing components for signal demodulation. The goal of this program is to demonstrate a low cost VDL mode-3 transceiver using this chip to receive text weather information sent using 4-slot TDMA with no support for voice. The data will be sent from an experimental ground station. This work is funded by NASA Glenn Research Center.
Becker, Robert↗
Technologies for affordable SEC missions
The influence of technology in reducing spacecraft costs was evaluated by analyzing historical trend data for spacecraft subsystems.
spacecraft↗
Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft
The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.
Sallee, G. P.↗
Opportunities for and challenges to further reductions in the “specific power” rating of wind turbines installed in the United States
A wind turbine’s “specific power” rating relates its capacity to the swept area of its rotor in terms of Watt per square meter. For a given generator capacity, specific power declines as rotor size increases. In land-rich but capacity-constrained wind power markets, such as the United States, developers have an economic incentive to maximize megawatt-hours per constrained megawatt, and so have favored turbines with ever-lower specific power. To date, this trend toward lower specific power has pushed capacity factors higher while reducing the levelized cost of energy. We employ geospatial levelized cost of energy analysis across the United States to explore whether this trend is likely to continue. We find that under reasonable cost scenarios (i.e. presuming that logistical challenges from very large blades are surmountable), low-specific-power turbines could continue to be in demand going forward. Beyond levelized cost of energy, the boost in market value that low-specific-power turbines provide could become increasingly important as wind penetration grows.
geospatial modeling↗
Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects
This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗