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At least 127 records · Page 7

A System Approach to Deep Heating Savings Through Measurement, Management, and Motivation

Across multi-tenant commercial office and multifamily buildings, centrally metered fuel use represents a substantial fraction of whole-building energy use. Energy audit practitioners understand that improving heating distribution efficiency is typically more of an opportunity than combustion efficiency and that differing thermal comfort preferences between tenants are the bane of operators across these building typologies. There is an unmet market need for retrofit technologies that allow for the delivery of the right amount of heat to the right spaces, at the right time. The Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) package fills this gap through enhanced controls and metering, incorporating low-cost sensors and wireless communication infrastructure to provide a platform for ongoing commissioning and tenant feedback, including heat cost allocation. With support from the US DOE Building Technologies Office, Steven Winter Associates, Inc. (SWA) partnered with Sentient Buildings, E Source, building owners, and utility and policy stakeholders, to demonstrate a market viable EMIS that achieves a reduction in space heating energy use by reducing heating load, improving control, and positively impacting behavior while providing an acceptable financial return. In this study, EMIS packages were implemented in two New York City multifamily rental buildings. Both buildings conducted basic mechanical work (e.g., repairing steam traps) to ensure the heating system was operating well before any tenant feedback was layered in. Heating Energy Use Reports (HEUR) were created to provide tenants with social comparisons and energy savings tips to influence their behavior; these were provided monthly to all tenants in both buildings. Additionally, one building allocated heating costs to a portion of the tenants. Heat cost allocation (HCA) has a long history in the European Union (EU), although it is not common in the US or in steam-heated buildings. SWA leveraged existing EU best practices and stakeholder feedback to develop a Heat Cost Allocation algorithm that was considered equitable and intuitive. Energy use and tenant behavior impacts were tracked throughout the study. The basic mechanical repair work saved between 11-20% of heating energy. Those savings rose to 17-24% with the addition of tenant feedback. While it may not be possible to precisely determine the impact of COVID-19 on research studies like this, there may have been additional savings realized had the study taken place in a period of normal occupancy patterns. These types of central heating systems have been a blind spot for utilities, who have traditionally had little visibility into detailed behind-the-meter gas usage. Heating energy savings stayed consistent during the coldest months, indicating the potential for utilities to utilize EMIS packages for peak gas demand reductions or demand response programs. Tenant comfort was also improved. Post installation, room temperatures more closely matched thermostat set points. Perhaps due to this greater level of control, the vast majority of tenants being billed for heating were accepting of the allocation costs. And tenants receiving heat cost allocations were more likely to reduce their thermostat setpoints than tenants receiving behavioral feedback without financial impacts were. Variation in building specifics makes it difficult to provide precise energy and financial savings estimates. But within the range of expected conditions, the study identified a few key variables that can have the greatest impact on financial returns: the cost of fuel, the ability and willingness to allocate heating costs to tenants, and a well-functioning heating system as a starting point. This study focused on two multifamily buildings, but additional use cases, such as commercial buildings and affordable housing, should be explored to better understand the full market potential. While this type of upgrade has the potential for deep energy reductions and cost savings, future projects should take into account the balance of costs and benefits between owners and tenants, especially in the affordable, regulated, or other low-to-moderate income (LMI) segments of the market. Rent credits, utility allowances, or a shared savings program are possible options to accelerate adoption of this strategy in these market segments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Techno-economic Analysis and Life-Cycle Analysis of Renewable Diesel Fuels Produced with Waste Feedstocks

Wet waste feedstocks represent an important category of resources that could be utilized to produce biofuels. Diversion of the wet waste resources from going through conventional waste management practices to utilization as feedstocks for energy production also benefits from avoided cost and pollutant emissions of waste management and disposal. This study investigates the economic and environmental implications of producing bio-blendstocks for mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) engines from two waste-to-fuel pathways: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) from yellow grease, and swine manure hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) followed by biocrude upgrading. Detailed process models were developed for both pathways, which informed the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis (LCA). Conventional swine manure management practice was also modeled in detail as the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for the swine manure HTL pathway. The estimated minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) were $4.47/gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) and $3.57/GGE for the yellow grease to HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways, respectively. The life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the two pathways were 11.2 and -33.3 g CO2e/MJ, respectively, for the yellow grease to HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways. The credits of avoided emissions from conventional swine manure management were the main reason for the negative GHG emissions of the swine manure HTL pathway. The marginal GHG emissions abatement costs were estimated to be $100 – $253/tonne CO2e and $5 – $103/tonne CO2e for the yellow grease HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways, respectively, for a diesel price ranging between $2.0/GGE and $3.5/GGE. Since the yellow grease HEFA pathway is already commercialized, it can benefit from the $200/tonne carbon credit in the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) market, which could help the yellow grease HEFA pathway to achieve near-zero marginal GHG emissions abatement cost.

renewable diesel, techno economic analysis, life c↗

Community Solar Consolidated Billing: An Exploration of Implementation and Alternatives

The report presents an analysis of the considerations, costs, and benefits surrounding the implementation of utility consolidated billing in community solar programs while also exploring alternatives to achieve similar benefits in its absence. Consolidated billing simplifies the billing process for customers by combining all charges and credits associated with electricity service and community solar subscriptions into a single bill. The potential benefits of consolidated billing implementation include increased transparency, improved customer experience, and ultimately increased retention rates and decreased subscriber acquisition costs. Currently, community solar subscribers often receive two separate bills - one from the utility and one from a third-party community solar provider - potentially causing confusion. Consolidated billing seeks to resolve this by offering a unified bill, which, while beneficial to numerous stakeholders, presents administrative, technical, and financial hurdles that utilities and program administrators must address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Community Solar Consolidated Billing: An Exploration of Implementation and Alternatives [Slides]

This presentation is an abridged version of the report it is based on that presents an analysis of the considerations, costs, and benefits surrounding the implementation of utility consolidated billing in community solar programs while also exploring alternatives to achieve similar benefits in its absence. Consolidated billing simplifies the billing process for customers by combining all charges and credits associated with electricity service and community solar subscriptions into a single bill. The potential benefits of consolidated billing implementation include increased transparency, improved customer experience, and ultimately increased retention rates and decreased subscriber acquisition costs. Currently, community solar subscribers often receive two separate bills - one from the utility and one from a third-party community solar provider - potentially causing confusion. Consolidated billing seeks to resolve this by offering a unified bill, which, while beneficial to numerous stakeholders, presents administrative, technical, and financial hurdles that utilities and program administrators must address.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fleet-wide Electrification Impacts Assessment for the Valley Transportation Authority

This report explores the long-term electrification opportunities for the Valley Transit Authority’s (VTA) transit bus fleet. The potential for transit bus electrification at VTA as well as the economic impacts of partial and complete electrification are explored. We use the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization model to determine the optimal charging, operation and lowest capital and operating cost solution to achieve different levels of electrification to meet their existing routes. This study finds that, relying on only depot charging, around 70% of the daily trips by VTA’s transit bus fleet can be replaced with battery electric buses (BEBs) today. The benefits and drawbacks of five methods for improving the electrification potential beyond that achievable with only depot charging are discussed including (1) increase charger power, (2) purchase of larger vehicle batteries, (3) en-route charging, (4) purchasing additional buses and swapping them to enable the existing routes/blocks1 to be met, and (5) route/block redesign. A strategy is developed to enable full fleet electrification by increasing charger power or allowing intraday charging as a proxy for the options mentioned above. This method allows us to develop an understanding of the impacts and trade-offs of full fleet electrification. Two charging strategies are examined. Immediate charging, when the bus is charged as soon as it arrives at a depot or en-route charging station, and smart charging, which uses a controller to determine the best times to charge to achieve the lowest charging cost, while maintaining the same trip schedules. Smart charging is effective at reducing the peak power consumption, which can be reduced by between 31% and 65% compared to immediate charging. This translates directly to lower electricity demand charges and lower costs for possible distribution system upgrades. The total lifetime net present value (NPV) costs for different scenarios are presented in Figure ES-1. Scenarios are separated into three sections. The first stacked bar on the left is the base case (business-as-usual) where all buses are diesel hybrids, the next four bars include partial and full fleet electrification utilizing only immediate charging, and the last four bars include partial and full fleet electrification utilizing smart charging. The results show that smart charging scenarios are within ±4% of the lifetime NPV cost of the diesel-hybrid only (business-as-usual) scenario. The scenarios with full fleet electrification (i.e., including intraday charging) are 4% lower cost and those with partial fleet electrification (i.e., without intraday charging) are 2%–3% higher. However, it is important to note that the intraday charging scenarios do not include any additional costs for the equipment necessary to achieve intraday charging (e.g., additional chargers, larger batteries, new route design). Additionally, it is worth noting that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit received for implementing electric buses is essential to achieving these results.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Feasibility of Algal Biochar, a Byproduct of Biofuel Production, as a Supplemental Cementitious Material

Algal biochar, as the solid residue of biofuel production from algal biomass, is reported to explore disposition options, aiming to lessen the liability or obstacles to biofuel production processes. However, landfills and open combustion lead to adverse environmental impacts. One way to add value to such wastes is to use them as admixtures in cementitious construction materials. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of algae-derived biochar as supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) at different water contents and mixture ratios. Algal biochar-cement composites were prepared with different algal biochar content as well as different water-to-cement (w/c) ratios, and the surface area, morphology, elemental, and mineralogical composition were characterized. To compensate for the high-water absorption of algal biochar, a small concentration of a superplasticizer was used since higher w/c ratios negatively impact strength. The mechanical performance of algal biochar-cement composites is compared with control composites using commercial silica fume as a typical commercial SCM. The findings suggest that algal biochar is a promising candidate to replace commercial SCM, like silica fume, since algal biochar-cement composites can reach comparable compressive strength and Young’s modulus to commercial pozzolan-cement materials with the same w/c ratio, though at later curing times, 33 days. Although the tensile strength of algal biochar-cement composites is statistically similar at 7 days, it is significantly lower at later curing times, and further investigation is required to improve this property. Algal biochar-based cement binders showed comparable embodied carbon to silica fume-based cement binders based on a cradle-to-gate lifecycle analysis. However, the ability of algal biochar to absorb large volumes of CO 2 over short periods of time, as measured in this study, makes this novel SCM an excellent alternative to reduce the embodied carbon of concrete structures cradle-to-grave at 1/10 of the cost. In conclusion, valorization of algae-derived solid waste provides great potential to reduce embodied carbon and brings credit to biofuel production and concrete-based construction.

algae-derived↗

Beyond Capacity Credits: Adaptive Stress Period Planning for Evolving Power Systems

This paper combines and applies concepts from several researchers to outline an alternative framework to plan power systems for resource adequacy needs, which we call Adaptive Stress Period Planning (ASPP). It first provides background information regarding least-cost planning objectives and the challenge of balancing an increasing need for model representation with computational intensity as power systems evolve in complexity. Next, it motivates the opportunity for a new paradigm by outlining challenges of frameworks in use today that rely on aggregate capacity heuristics (i.e., capacity credits and planning reserve margins). Subsequently, it lays out main process details of ASPP, which more directly represents spatial and temporal dynamics of power systems in a capacity expansion model with a process to adaptively select risk periods. The paper concludes with a summary of the approach, its benefits, and opportunities for future work.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluating advanced nuclear fission technologies for future decarbonized power grids

Advanced nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs, could contribute to the decarbonization of the United States electricity sector. However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors would be compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs offer the most value to a decarbonized power grid. We employ an electricity system optimization model and a case study of a decarbonized U.S. Eastern Interconnection circa 2050 to generate initial indicators of future economic value for advanced reactors and the sensitivity of future value to various design parameters, the availability of competing technologies, and the underlying policy environment. These results can inform long-term cost targets and guide near-term innovation priorities, investments, and reactor design decisions. We find that advanced reactors should cost $\$5.7$–$\$7.3$/W to gain an initial market share (assuming 30 year asset life and 3.5 %–6.5 % real weighted average cost of capital), while those that include thermal storage in their designs can cost up to $\$6.0$/W–$\$7.7$/W (not including cost of storage). Since the marginal value of advanced fission reactors declines as market penetration increases, break-even costs fall ~32 % at 100 GW of cumulative capacity and ~51 % at 300 GW. Additionally, policies that provide investment tax credits for nuclear energy create the most favorable environment for advanced nuclear fission. In conclusion, these findings can inform near-term resource allocation decisions by stakeholders, innovators and investors working in the energy technology sector.

Capacity expansion↗

Filer City Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) Net-Negative Study

NorthStar Clean Energy Company (NorthStar) conducted the Filer City Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) Net-Negative Study to develop a conceptual design and cost estimate for retrofitting the TES Filer City Station with post-combustion carbon capture technology in Mainstee Michigan. The Filer City BiCRS Net-Negative Study allowed NorthStar and team to confirm the commercial feasibility of a post-combustion carbon capture system applied to biomass-fired boilers. At the time of the study, there were no operating facilities in the world with carbon capture applied to flue gas from woody biomass as proposed for Filer City. Due to the solvent-agnostic nature of B&W’s SolveBright™ technology, the team determined that multiple amines, both traditional and proprietary, would be capable of 95% CO 2 capture efficiency with the steam available from Filer City’s existing boilers after modifications to burn 100% biomass. Based on the cost estimates produced, NorthStar can now confirm the Filer City BiCRS Project is economically viable with a combination of tax credits available from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and high-quality Carbon Dioxide Removal Credits sold on the Voluntary Carbon Market. The Filer City BiCRS project is uniquely positioned to become one of the first projects to capture and sequester large volumes of CO 2 from a biogenic source, removing existing CO 2 from the atmosphere. The unlimited version of the Filer City Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) Net-Negative Study Final Technical Report is attached.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Integrated techno-economic framework for nuclear hydrogen production: assessing the role of high temperature steam electrolysis and safety considerations

This manuscript presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of nuclear integrated hydrogen production through high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Given the significant role of hydrogen as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock, the research evaluates the feasibility of co-locating HTSE facilities with existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to enhance hydrogen production efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Here, the study highlights the advantages of HTSE over traditional low-temperature electrolysis, particularly in leveraging thermal and electrical energy from NPPs. A novel framework for hydrogen deployment is introduced, integrating hydrogen market analysis, techno-economic evaluation (TEA), and safety assessments. The findings underscore the economic viability of hydrogen production in light of current market conditions, including fluctuating natural gas prices and the impact of production tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. A case study in the Gulf Coast region demonstrates the potential for strategic hydrogen production to meet growing industrial demand while ensuring safety and regulatory compliance. Overall, this research contributes to the advancement of nuclear integrated hydrogen production as a sustainable energy solution.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance and cost analysis of liquid fuel production from H 2 and CO 2 based on the Fischer-Tropsch process

Electro-fuels can be produced from concentrated sources of carbon dioxide and hydrogen using electricity generated from renewable sources; this process enables energy storage at high volumetric energy density. Among the electro-fuels options, FT (Fischer-Tropsch) fuel is attractive for heavy-duty trucks and non-road transportation applications. This study conducts a techno-economic analysis of FT liquid fuel production from H 2 and CO 2 using a detailed performance analysis. Minimum fuel selling price is estimated for a broad range of H 2 and CO 2 prices and for a range of potential CO 2 credits. The analysis indicates that H 2 price has the largest impact on the minimum selling price of FT fuel. FT fuel production with a CO 2 price of $17.3/metric ton requires an H 2 price of $0.8/kg to be cost-competitive with the pre-tax petroleum diesel price of $3.1/gal in 2050 (before the application of any CO 2 credits). When the H 2 price is $2.0/kg from central water electrolysis (2020 target), the minimum selling price of the FT fuel is $5.4–5.9/gal. A sensitivity analysis shows that future system optimization of FT fuel production could focus on improving the H 2 and CO 2 recycle contributions and FT fuel conversion ratio. The analysis results can be combined with various upstream systems for H 2 and CO 2 production.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Identifying geologic characteristics and operational decisions to meet global carbon sequestration goals

Geologic carbon sequestration is the process of injecting and storing CO 2 in subsurface reservoirs and is an essential technology for global environmental security (e.g., climate change mitigation) and economic security (e.g., CO 2 tax credits). To meet energy, economic, and environmental goals, society will have to identify vast volumes of high-capacity, low-cost, and viable storage reservoirs for sequestering CO 2 . In turn, this requires understanding how major geologic characteristics (such as reservoir depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, and temperature) and design and operational decisions (such as injection well spacing) impact CO 2 injection rates, storage capacity, and economics. Although many numerical simulation tools exist, they cannot repeat the required thousands or millions of simulations to identify ideal reservoir properties and the sensitivity and interaction between geologic parameters and operational decisions. Here, we use SCO 2 T—a fast-running, reduced-order modeling framework—to explore the sensitivity of major geologic parameters and operational decisions to engineering (CO 2 injection rates, plume dimensions, and storage capacities and effectiveness) and costs. Our results show, for the first time, benefits and impacts such as allowing CO 2 plumes to overlap, how different well spacing patterns affect CO 2 sequestration, the effects on costs of including brine treatment and disposal, and the effect of restricting injection rates to 1 MtCO 2 per y based on well limitations. We reveal multiple novel and unintuitive findings including: (i) deeper reservoirs have reduced carbon sequestration costs until injection rates reach 1 MtCO 2 per y, at which point deeper reservoirs become more expensive, (ii) thicker formations allow for increased injection rates and storage capacity, but thickness barely impacts plume areas, (iii) higher geothermal gradients result in reduced sequestration costs, unless brine treatment/disposal costs are included, at which point reservoirs having lower geothermal gradients are more economical because they produce less brine for each unit of injected CO 2 , and (iv) allowing plumes to overlap has a significantly positive impact of increasing storage capacities but has only a small influence on reducing sequestration costs. Altogether, our results illustrate new scientific conclusions to help identify suitable sites to inject and store CO 2 , to help understand the complex interaction between geology and resulting costs, and to help support the pursuit of meeting global sequestration targets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Carbon-negative hydrogen: aqueous phase reforming (APR) of glycerol over NiPt bimetallic catalyst coupled with CO 2 sequestration

Herein we report the production of high-pressure (19.3 bar), carbon-negative hydrogen (H 2 ) from glycerol with a purity of 98.2 mol% H 2 , 1.8 mol% light hydrocarbons (mainly methane), and 400 ppm of CO. Aqueous phase reforming (APR) of 10 wt% glycerol solution was studied with a series of NiPt alumina bimetallic catalysts supported on alumina. The Ni 8 Pt 1 -450 catalyst had the highest hydrogen selectivity (95.6%) and the lowest alkanes selectivity (3.7%) of the tested catalysts. The hydrogen selectivity decreased in the order of Ni 8 Pt 1 -450 > Ni 8 Pt 1 -260 > Ni 1 Pt 1 -260 > Pt-260. The CO 2 was sequestered with CaO adsorbent which formed CaCO 3 . We measured the adsorption capacity of the CaO adsorbent at different temperatures. Life cycle analysis showed that the APR of glycerol coupled with CO 2 capture has net negative CO 2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions. The CO 2 emissions are –9.9 kg CO 2 eq./kg H 2 and –50.1 kg CO 2 eq./kg H 2 when grid electricity and renewable electricity are used, respectively, and the CO 2 is allocated respectively to the mass of products produced. The cost of this H 2 (denoted as “green-emerald”) was estimated to be 2.4 USD per kg H 2 when grid electricity is used and 2.7 USD per kg H 2 when using renewable electricity. The cost of glycerol has the highest contribution of 1.71 USD per kg H 2 . As a result, participation in the carbon credit markets can further decrease the price of the produced H 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

What Is the Best Use of Biomass? A Harmonized LCA-TEA Framework Quantifying Economic and Environmental Metrics for Bioenergy Pathways

Bioresource utilization is expected to play a pivotal role in complementing existing energy pathways and enhancing energy resilience. This study develops a harmonized life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), and marginal abatement cost (MAC) of bioenergy pathways. We analyze 19 pathways, including liquid biofuels (via catalytic fast pyrolysis, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and gasification), bioelectricity, and biomass-to-hydrogen, with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The GHG impacts are assessed using the GREET 2022 model, while U.S. Billion-Ton 2016 biomass availability projections are used to estimate scale-up potential. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of a low-carbon electricity grid on pathway performance. Our results show that CCS implementation reduces carbon intensities (CI) to net-negative values for several pathways, with MAC ranging from $\$$32 to $\$$600 per metric ton (MT) CO2e avoided. Bioelectricity pathways with CCS achieve the lowest MAC ($\$$32–$\$$68/tCO2e), while liquid biofuels and hydrogen pathways remain critical for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy industry. Pathways with net-positive electricity demand benefit from a low-carbon grid, whereas those co-producing electricity experience increased MAC under lower electricity grid CI scenarios. This open-source framework provides a robust tool for harmonized evaluation of bioenergy pathways, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to identify cost-effective strategies for biomass utilization and carbon abatement at scale. The findings underscore the importance of CCS, co-product credits, and feedstock availability in optimizing bioenergy deployment for a low-carbon economy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector

We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium, microsimulation, and air pollution models to estimate economic welfare and health incidence across demographic groups. We evaluate trade-offs between policy efficiency and income progressivity by comparing the tax credits to cap-and-trade policies. The tax credits encourage increased clean electricity investment, resulting in a reallocation of capital from elsewhere in the economy, higher prices for capital and other goods, lower power prices, and lower emissions. The tax credits yield progressive outcomes for economic welfare at the expense of efficiency while all modeled policies demonstrate progressivity in health impacts. The health benefits, absent climate benefits, exceed total policy costs and provide greater benefits for low-income and historically marginalized households given coincidence of household locations and emissions exposure intensity.

distributional impacts↗

Opportunities for green hydrogen production with land-based wind in the United States

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is an efficient energy carrier and storage mechanism that can supply both stationary and transport energy demand. Rapidly declining renewable energy generation costs; technology innovations in wind, solar, battery storage, and electrolysis; and a global push for more sustainable and secure energy have driven increased interest in green H 2 production. In this study, we develop an H 2 scenario analysis tool to assist in rapid, high-resolution insights into future, green H 2 pathways to achieve policy goals and market competitiveness. Using this tool, we estimate H 2 production and costs for U.S., off-grid scenarios given varying policy and cost scenarios from 2025–2035. Results indicate that achieving economically competitive green H 2 production (below $\$$2/kg) is possible in 2030 with no policy incentives (one site achieves this target), while increasing policy support to include wind and green H 2 production tax credits enables widespread economic viability sooner, with sub-$\$$2/kg LCOH targets achieved by 2025 and 51.7% of sites achieving this target by 2035. Maximizing policy support through prevailing wage and apprenticeship credit multipliers enable widespread economic viability, including sub-$\$$2/kg of green H 2 by 2025 and even negative pricing by 2035. Regions with lowest LCOH values correspond to high wind resource areas and capacity factors. Achieving decarbonization goals with green H 2 depends on technology cost reductions and policy support, with a maximum average LCOH reduction of $\$$23.10 between no and maximum policy support scenarios, and a maximum average LCOH reduction of $\$$25.86 between current, conservative technology costs and 2035 projected technology cost assumptions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Five grand challenges of offshore wind financing in the United States

Offshore wind energy has the potential to play a critical role in fostering a renewable energy transformation in the United States. This owes to its massive technical potential, strategic location near densely populated coastlines, and - relative to onshore wind and solar - high capacity factors and consistent production. The Biden Administration's target to build 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 (from 0.04 GW today) requires the creation and swift development of a new industry that interlinks the wind and power industries with the maritime sector. Critical to its success is financing. While financial capital is abundant, deploying it for offshore wind faces major challenges. We identify and describe five grand challenges affecting offshore wind finance in the U.S. Failing to address these challenges may put deployment targets at risk. The challenges include (1) Early years financing: navigating the complexities, timing mismatches, and high costs of projects in the development phase; (2) Policy support for project financial solvency: addressing the uncertainty and systematic transfers of tax credits away from offshore wind, characteristic of the U.S. Investment Tax Credit; (3) Workforce development: building a skilled workforce for an emerging market; (4) Transmission and integration barriers: upgrading the power grid to reliably support large scale offshore wind integration; and (5) Floating wind development: financing the development and scale-up of floating offshore wind technologies. The second challenge has already been solved to a large extent by the Inflation Reduction Act.

17 WIND ENERGY↗