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NASA NTRS2020

Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to compare cost between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed a 5-parameter first-article optical telescope assembly cost model OTA$ (FY17) = $20M x 30(S/G)x D(1.7)x λ(-0.5)x T(-0.25)x e(-0.028) (Y-1960)Where S/G = 1 for space and 0 for ground telescopes, D = diameter, λ= diffraction limited wavelength, T = operating temperature and Y = year of development. The model explains 92% (Adjusted R2) of the cost variation in a database of 47 total ground and space telescope assemblies (OTA). The MSFC model estimates the most likely cost for only the OTA. Where an OTA is defined as the subsystem which collects electromagnetic radiation and focuses it (focal) or concentrates it (afocal) into the science instruments. An OTA consists of the primary mirror, secondary mirror, auxiliary optics and support structure (such as optical bench or truss structure, primary support structure, secondary support structure or spiders, straylight baffles, mechanisms for adjusting the optical components, electronics or power systems for operating these mechanisms, etc.). Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems(i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly(presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

Space Telescope Cost Model, Parametric Cost Model↗
NASA NTRS1975

Strapdown cost trend study and forecast

The potential cost advantages offered by advanced strapdown inertial technology in future commercial short-haul aircraft are summarized. The initial procurement cost and six year cost-of-ownership, which includes spares and direct maintenance cost were calculated for kinematic and inertial navigation systems such that traditional and strapdown mechanization costs could be compared. Cost results for the inertial navigation systems showed that initial costs and the cost of ownership for traditional triple redundant gimbaled inertial navigators are three times the cost of the equivalent skewed redundant strapdown inertial navigator. The net cost advantage for the strapdown kinematic system is directly attributable to the reduction in sensor count for strapdown. The strapdown kinematic system has the added advantage of providing a fail-operational inertial navigation capability for no additional cost due to the use of inertial grade sensors and attitude reference computers.

Eberlein, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Manned Mars mission cost estimate

The potential costs of several options of a manned Mars mission are examined. A cost estimating methodology based primarily on existing Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) parametric cost models is summarized. These models include the MSFC Space Station Cost Model and the MSFC Launch Vehicle Cost Model as well as other modes and techniques. The ground rules and assumptions of the cost estimating methodology are discussed and cost estimates presented for six potential mission options which were studied. The estimated manned Mars mission costs are compared to the cost of the somewhat analogous Apollo Program cost after normalizing the Apollo cost to the environment and ground rules of the manned Mars missions. It is concluded that a manned Mars mission, as currently defined, could be accomplished for under $30 billion in 1985 dollars excluding launch vehicle development and mission operations.

Hamaker, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1985

Cost characteristics of tilt-rotor, conventional air and high speed rail short-haul intercity passenger service

The cost analysis done to support an assessment of the potential for a small tilt-rotor aircraft to operate in short-haul intercity passenger service is described in detail. Anticipated costs of tilt-rotor air service were compared to the costs of two alternatives: conventional air and high speed rail (HSR). Costs were developed for corridor service, varying key market characteristics including distance, passenger volumes, and minimum frequency standards. The resulting cost vs output information can then be used to compare modal costs for essentially identical service quality and passenger volume or for different service levels and volumes for each mode, as appropriate. Extensive sensitivity analyses are performed. The cost-output features of these technologies are compared. Tilt-rotor is very attractive compared to HSR in terms of costs over the entire range of volume. It also has costs not dramatically different from conventional air, but tilt-rotor costs are generally higher. Thus some of its other advantages, such as the VTOL capability, must offset the cost disadvantage for it to be a preferred or competitive mode in any given market. These issues are addressed in the companion report which considers strategies for tilt-rotor development in commercial air service.

Schoendorfer, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Reliability and cost: A sensitivity analysis

In the design phase of a system, how a design engineer or manager choose between a subsystem with .990 reliability and a more costly subsystem with .995 reliability is examined, along with the justification of the increased cost. High reliability is not necessarily an end in itself but may be desirable in order to reduce the expected cost due to subsystem failure. However, this may not be the wisest use of funds since the expected cost due to subsystem failure is not the only cost involved. The subsystem itself may be very costly. The cost of the subsystem nor the expected cost due to subsystem failure should not be considered separately but the total of the two costs should be maximized, i.e., the total of the cost of the subsystem plus the expected cost due to subsystem failure.

Suich, Ronald C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Space system production cost benefits from contemporary philosophies in management and manufacturing

The cost of manufacturing space system hardware has always been expensive. The Engineering Cost Group of the Program Planning office at Marshall is attempting to account for cost savings that result from new technologies in manufacturing and management. The objective is to identify and define contemporary philosophies in manufacturing and management. The seven broad categories that make up the areas where technological advances can assist in reducing space system costs are illustrated. Included within these broad categories is a list of the processes or techniques that specifically provide the cost savings within todays design, test, production and operations environments. The processes and techniques listed achieve savings in the following manner: increased productivity; reduced down time; reduced scrap; reduced rework; reduced man hours; and reduced material costs. In addition, it should be noted that cost savings from production and processing improvements effect 20 to 40 pct. of production costs whereas savings from management improvements effects 60 to 80 of production cost. This is important because most efforts in reducing costs are spent trying to reduce cost in the production.

Rosmait, Russell L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Industry survey of space system cost benefits from New Ways Of Doing Business

The cost of designing, building and operating space system hardware has always been expensive. Small quantities of specialty parts escalate engineering design, production and operations cost. Funding cutbacks and shrinking revenues dictate aggressive cost saving programs. NASA's highest priority is providing economical transportation to and from space. Over the past three decades NASA has seen technological advances that provide grater efficiencies in designing, building, and operating of space system hardware. As future programs such as NLS, LUTE and SEI begin, these greater efficiencies and cost savings should be reflected in the cost models. There are several New Ways Of Doing Business (NWODB) which, when fully implemented will reduce space system costs. These philosophies and/or culture changes are integrated in five areas: (1) More Extensive Pre-Phase C/D & E, (2) Multi Year Funding Stability, (3) Improved Quality, Management and Procurement Processes, (4) Advanced Design Methods, and (5) Advanced Production Methods. Following is an overview of NWODB and the Cost Quantification Analysis results using an industry survey, one of the four quantification techniques used in the study. The NWODB Cost Quantification Analysis is a study performed at Marshall Space Flight Center by the Engineering Cost Group, Applied Research Incorporated and Pittsburg State University. This study took place over a period of four months in mid 1992. The purpose of the study was to identify potential NWODB which could lead to improved cost effectiveness within NASA and to quantify potential cost benefits that might accrue if these NWODB were implemented.

Rosmait, Russell L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

Hammond, Walter E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of a Multivariable Parametric Cost Analysis for Space-Based Telescopes

Over the past 400 years, the telescope has proven to be a valuable tool in helping humankind understand the Universe around us. The images and data produced by telescopes have revolutionized planetary, solar, stellar, and galactic astronomy and have inspired a wide range of people, from the child who dreams about the images seen on NASA websites to the most highly trained scientist. Like all scientific endeavors, astronomical research must operate within the constraints imposed by budget limitations. Hence the importance of understanding cost: to find the balance between the dreams of scientists and the restrictions of the available budget. By logically analyzing the data we have collected for over thirty different telescopes from more than 200 different sources, statistical methods, such as plotting regressions and residuals, can be used to determine what drives the cost of telescopes to build and use a cost model for space-based telescopes. Previous cost models have focused their attention on ground-based telescopes due to limited data for space telescopes and the larger number and longer history of ground-based astronomy. Due to the increased availability of cost data from recent space-telescope construction, we have been able to produce and begin testing a comprehensive cost model for space telescopes, with guidance from the cost models for ground-based telescopes. By separating the variables that effect cost such as diameter, mass, wavelength, density, data rate, and number of instruments, we advance the goal to better understand the cost drivers of space telescopes.. The use of sophisticated mathematical techniques to improve the accuracy of cost models has the potential to help society make informed decisions about proposed scientific projects. An improved knowledge of cost will allow scientists to get the maximum value returned for the money given and create a harmony between the visions of scientists and the reality of a budget.

Dollinger, Courtnay↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of Life Support Recycling and Resupply

Brief human space missions supply all the crew's water and oxygen from Earth. The multiyear International Space Station (ISS) program instead uses physicochemical life support systems to recycle water and oxygen. This paper compares the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of recycling to the LCC of resupply for potential future long duration human space missions. Recycling systems have high initial development costs but relatively low durationdependent support costs. This means that recycling is more cost effective for longer missions. Resupplying all the water and oxygen requires little initial development cost but has a much higher launch mass and launch cost. The cost of resupply increases as the mission duration increases. Resupply is therefore more cost effective than recycling for shorter missions. A recycling system pays for itself when the resupply LCC grows greater over time than the recycling LCC. The time when this occurs is called the recycling breakeven date. Recycling will cost very much less than resupply for long duration missions within the Earth-Moon system, such as a future space station or Moon base. But recycling would cost about the same as resupply for long duration deep space missions, such as a Mars trip. Because it is not possible to provide emergency supplies or quick return options on the way to Mars, more expensive redundant recycling systems will be needed.

recycling↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Impact of Lower Launch Cost on Space Life Support

The development of commercial launch systems has substantially reduced the cost of space launch. NASA's Space Shuttle had a cost of about $1.5 billion to launch 27,500 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), $54,500/kg. SpaceX's Falcon 9 now advertises a cost of $62 million to launch 22,800 kg to LEO, $2,720/kg. Space launch costs were very high for decades, typically about $20,000/kg, and it was understood that this high launch cost made it necessary for long human missions to recycle water and oxygen to reduce logistics mass. Short missions such as Apollo or Shuttle used stored and resupplied life support materials, but for a much longer mission such as the International Space Station (ISS), recycling saves logistics mass and reduces launch cost. The Life Cycle Cost (LCC) will be computed for resupply logistics and for a recycling system similar to that on the ISS. The LCC includes the costs of development, launch, and operations. The new low launch cost makes open loop life support much cheaper than before. Direct logistics resupply would be less costly than recycling for future human missions, such as a long term moon base, a Mars mission, or a future space station in LEO.

life support↗
NASA NTRS1972

Solid rocket motor cost model

A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

Harney, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Space program payload costs and their possible reduction

The possible ways by which NASA payload costs might be reduced in the future were studied. The major historical reasons for payload costs being as they were, and if there are technologies (hard and soft), or criteria for technology advances, that could significantly reduce total costs of payloads were examined. Payload costs are placed in historical context. Some historical cost breakdowns for unmanned NASA payloads are presented to suggest where future cost reductions could be most significant. Space programs of NOAA, DoD and COMSAT are then examined to ascertain if payload reductions have been brought about by the operational (as opposed to developmental) nature of such programs, economies of scale, the ability to rely on previously developed technology, or by differing management structures and attitudes. The potential impact was investigated of NASA aircraft-type management on spacecraft program costs, and some examples relating previous costs associated with aircraft costs on the one hand and manned and unmanned costs on the other are included.

Vanvleck, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Cost analysis of atmosphere monitoring systems

A methodology was developed to predict realistic relative cost of life support systems and to define areas of major cost impacts in the development cycle. Emphasis was given to tailoring the cost data for usage by program planners and designers. Cost estimates can be completed using the developed equations for varying degrees of equipment refinement, as well as comparative costs between different functional methods. Cost analysis of two leading atmosphere monitoring systems, namely the mass spectrometer and the gas chromatograph, is discussed. A summary of the approach used in developing the cost estimating techniques is presented. Included are the cost estimating techniques, the development of cost estimating relationships, and the atmosphere monitoring system cost estimates.

Yakut, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Analysis of costs of gallium arsenide and silicon solar arrays for space power applications

A parametric analysis was performed to compare the costs of silicon and gallium arsenide arrays for Earth orbital missions. The missions included electric power in low Earth orbit (LEO), electric power in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO), and power for electric propulsion of a LEO to GEO orbit transfer mission. Inputs to the analysis for all missions included launch and purchase costs of the array. For the orbit transfer mission, the launch and purchase costs of the electric propulsion system were added. Radiation flux as a function of altitude and rediation tolerance as a function of cell type were used to determine power degradation for each mission. Curves were generated that show the sensitivity of launch-array cost and total mission cost to a variety of input parameters for each mission. These parameters included mission duration, cover glass thickness, array specific cost, array specific mass, and solar cell efficiency. Solar concentration was considered and the sensitivities of cost to concentration ratio, concentrator costs, and concentrator mass were also evaluated. Results indicate that solar cell development should give a high priority to reducing array costs and that the development of low cost, lightweight, solar concentrators should be pursued.

Jefferies, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

A cost analysis for the implementation of commonality in the family of commuter airplanes, revised

The acquisition costs determined for the NASA family of commute airplanes are presented. The costs of the baseline designs are presented along with the calculated savings due to the commonality in the family. A sensitivity study is also presented to show the major drivers in the acquisition cost calculations. The baseline costs are calculated with the Nicolai method. A comparison is presented of the estimated costs for the commuter family with the actual price for existing commuters. The cost calculations for the engines and counter-rotating propellers are reported. The effects of commonality on acquisition costs are calculated. The sensitivity calculations of the cost to various costing parameters are shown. The calculations for the direct operating costs, with and without commonality are presented.

Creighton, Tom↗
NASA NTRS1989

Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

Unal, Resit↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Cost Comparison of Alternative Approaches to Distance Education in Developing Countries

This paper presents a cost comparison of three approaches to two-way interactive distance learning systems for developing countries. Included are costs for distance learning hardware, terrestrial and satellite communication links, and designing instruction for two-way interactive courses. As part of this project, FSEC is developing a 30-hour course in photovoltaic system design that will be used in a variety of experiments using the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS). A primary goal of the project is to develop an instructional design and delivery model that can be used for other education and training programs. Over two-thirds of the world photovoltaics market is in developing countries. One of the objectives of this NASA-sponsored project was to develop new and better energy education programs that take advantage of advances in telecommunications and computer technology. The combination of desktop video systems and the sharing of computer applications software is of special interest. Research is being performed to evaluate the effectiveness of some of these technologies as part of this project. The design of the distance learning origination and receive sites discussed in this paper were influenced by the educational community's growing interest in distance education. The following approach was used to develop comparative costs for delivering interactive distance education to developing countries: (1) Representative target locations for receive sites were chosen. The originating site was assumed to be Cocoa, Florida, where FSEC is located; (2) A range of course development costs were determined; (3) The cost of equipment for three alternative two-way interactive distance learning system configurations was determined or estimated. The types of system configurations ranged from a PC-based system that allows instructors to originate instruction from their office using desktop video and shared application software, to a high cost system that uses a electronic classroom; (4) A range of costs for both satellite and terrestrial communications was investigated; (5) The costs of equipment and operation of the alternative configurations for the origination and receive sites were determined; (6) A range of costs for several alternative delivery scenarios (i.e., a mix of live-interactive; asynchronous interactive;use of videotapes) was determined; and (7) A preferred delivery scenario, including cost estimate, was developed.

Ventre, Gerard G.↗