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At least 127 records · Page 7

Coupling Mars' Dust and Water Cycles: Effects on Dust Lifting Vigor, Spatial Extent and Seasonality

The dust cycle is an important component of Mars' current climate system. Airborne dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, thus greatly influencing the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Dust raising events on Mars occur at spatial scales ranging from meters to planet-wide. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. Generally, a low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading were observed by MGS/TES: one peak occurred before northern winter solstice at Ls 200-240, and one peak occurred after northern winter solstice at L(sub s) 305-340. These maxima in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere, which has been observed to maximize pre- and post-solstice. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading. Interactive dust cycle studies typically have not included the formation of water ice clouds or their radiative effects. Water ice clouds can influence the dust cycle by scavenging dust from atmosphere and by interacting with solar and infrared radiation, thereby modifying the thermal structure of the atmosphere and its circulation. Results presented in other papers at this workshop show that including the radiative effects of water ice clouds greatly influence the water cycle and the vigor of weather systems in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Our goal is to investigate the effects of fully coupling the dust and water cycles on the dust cycle. We show that including water ice clouds and their radiative effects greatly affect the magnitude, spatial extent and seasonality of dust lifting and the season of maximum atmospheric dust loading.

Kahre, M. A.↗

Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle as Observed by TRMM

Using infrared satellite data, previous work has shown a consistent diurnal cycle in the pattern of cold cloud tops around mature tropical cyclones. In particular, an increase in the coverage by cold cloud tops often occurs in the inner core of the storm around the time of sunset and subsequently propagates outward to several hundred kilometers over the course of the following day. This consistent cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones and the forecasting of such changes. Because infrared satellite measurements are primarily sensitive to cloud top, the goal of this study is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to examine and better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a larger depth of the storm's clouds. The National Hurricane Center's best track dataset was used to extract all PR and TMI pixels within 1000 km of each tropical cyclone that occurred in the Atlantic basin between 1998-2011. Then the data was composited according to radius (100-km bins from 0-1000 km) and local standard time (LST; 3-hr bins). Specifically, PR composites involved finding the percentage of pixels with reflectivity greater than or equal to 20 dBZ at various heights (i.e., 2-14 km in increments of 2 km) as a function of radius and time. The 37- and 85- GHz TMI channels are especially sensitive to scattering by precipitation-sized ice in the mid to upper portions of clouds. Hence, the percentage of 37- and 85-GHz polarization corrected temperatures less than various thresholds were calculated using data from all storms as a function of radius and time. For 37 GHz, thresholds of 260 K, 265 K, 270 K, and 275 K were used, and for 85 GHz, thresholds of 200-270 K in increments of 10 K were utilized. Note that convection forced by the interactions of a tropical cyclone with land (e.g., due to frictional convergence) may disrupt the natural convective cycle of a cyclone. Hence, only data pertaining to storms whose centers were greater than 300 km from land were included in the composites. Early results suggest the presence of a diurnal cycle in the PR composites of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from a height of 2-12 km from approximately 0-400 km radius, but the cycle is most apparent above 6 km. At a height of 8 km, there is a peak (minimum) in the percentage of PR pixels greater than or equal to 20 dBZ near 0 (21) LST in the inner core with some indication that this signal propagates outward with time. In contrast, the 37- and 85-GHz composites show little indication of a diurnal cycle at any radii, regardless of the threshold used. Ongoing work with this project will involve sub-setting the composites according to storm intensity to see if the diurnal cycle varies with storm strength. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear often leads to asymmetries in tropical cyclone convection and may disrupt the cyclone's natural diurnal cycle. Therefore, wind shear thresholds will be applied to the composites to determine if the diurnal cycle becomes more apparent in a low shear environment. Finally, other work to be completed will involve developing composites for other tropical cyclone basins, including the East Pacific, Northwest Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean.

tropical cyclones↗

Thermal cycling testing to failure of a ceramic column grid array package for space applications

Ceramic column grid array (CCGA) packages have been used increasingly in logic and microprocessor functions, telecommunications, flight avionics boards, payload electronics boards, engineering navigational and science cameras, electronic assemblies, and other applications, because of their inherent advantages such as high electrical interconnect density, very good thermal and electrical performance, and compatibility with standard surface-mount technology (SMT) packaging assembly processes. Because these advanced electronic packages tend to have less solder-joint strain-relief than do leaded flat-pack electronic packages, the reliability of CCGA packages in challenging thermal environments is a very important consideration for their short- and long-term use in JPL-NASA space missions. In this study, we assembled daisy chains of polyimide printed wiring boards from CCGA-interconnect packages, inspected the boards nondestructively, and then subjected them to thermal cycling to assess their reliability in thermal environments from +125°C to -40°C±25°C. The test hardware consists of a CCGA 1752 package (CN version). The package was divided into four daisy-chained sections that were electrically monitored for their continuity during thermal cycling. The CCGA 1752 package is roughly 45 mm × 45 mm with a 42-mm × 42-mm array of 80%/20% Pb/Sn columns on a 1.00-mm pitch. The resistance of the daisy-chained CCGA interconnects was continuously monitored during thermal cycling in a gaseous nitrogen environment. Electrical continuity resistance measurements as a function of thermal cycling are reported here; tests to date have shown significant change to an open circuit in daisy-chain resistance as a function of thermal cycling. The change in interconnect resistance becomes increasingly noticeable with increasing number of thermal cycles. This paper describes the experimental thermal-cycling test results of CCGA 1752 package reliability testing under an extremely wide temperature range. The first failure was observed at 1479th thermal cycle. We report the thermal-cycle reliability test data for ~2500 thermal cycles.

Ramesham, Rajeshuni↗

Thermal Cycle Reliability of PBGA/CCGA 717 I/Os

Status of thermal cycle test results for a nonfunctional daisy-chained peripheral ceramic column grid array (CCGA) and its plastic ball grid array (PBGA) version. both having 560 I/Os. were presented in last year's conference. Test results included environmental data for three different thermal cycle regimes (-55 C/125 C, -55 C/100 C, and -50 C /75 C). Update information on these - especially failure type for assemblies with high and low solder volumes-were presented. The thermal cycle test procedure followed those recommended IPC-9701 for tin-lead solder joint assemblies. Revision A of this specification covers guideline thermal cycle requirements for Pb-free solder joints. Some background information discussed during release of this specification with its current guideline recommendations were also presented. In a recent reliability investigation a fully populated CCGA with 717 I/Os was also considered for assembly reliability. evaluation. The functional package is a field-programmable gate array that has much higher processing power than its previous version. This new package is smaller in dimension, has no interposer, and has a thinner column wrapped with copper for reliability improvement. This paper will also present thermal cycle test results for this package assembly and its plastic version with 728 I/Os. both of which were exposed to three different cycle regimes. Two cycle profiles were those specified by IPC- 9701A for tin-lead, i.e. -55 to 100 C and -55 to 125 C and one was a cycle profile specified by Mil-Std-883, i.e.. -65 C/150 C which is generally used for ceramic hybrid packages. Per IPC-9701 A, test vehicles were built using daisy chain packages and were continuously monitored. The effects of many process and assembly variables-including corner staking commonly used for improving resistance to mechanical loading such as drop and vibration loads--were also considered as part of the test matrix. Optical photomicrographs were taken at various thermal cycle intervals to document damage progress and behavior. Representative samples of these along with cross-sectional photomicrographs at higher magnification taken by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to determine crack propagation and failure analyses for packages are also presented.

staking↗

Influence of creep damage on the low cycle thermal-mechanical fatigue behavior of two tantalum base alloys

Low cycle fatigue tests have been performed on the tantalum base alloys T-111 and ASTAR 811C with synchronized, independently programmed temperature and strain cycling. The thermal-mechanical cycles applied fell into three basic categories: these were isothermal cycling, in-phase thermal cycling, and out-of-phase thermal cycling. In-phase cycling was defined as tensile deformation associated with high temperature and compressive deformation with low temperature, while out-of-phase thermal cycling was defined as the reverse case. The in-phase thermal cycling had a pronounced detrimental influence on the fatigue life of both alloys, with the life reduction being greater in the solid solution strengthened T-111 alloy than in the carbide strengthened ASTAR 811C alloy. The out-of-phase tests also showed pronounced effects on the fatigue life of both alloys, although not as dramatic.

Sheffler, K. D.↗

Energy Conversion Alternatives Study (ECAS), General Electric Phase 1. Volume 2: Advanced energy conversion systems. Part 1: Open-cycle gas turbines

Ten energy conversion systems are defined and analyzed in terms of efficiency. These include: open-cycle gas turbine recuperative; open-cycle gas turbine; closed-cycle gas turbine; supercritical CO2 cycle; advanced steam cycle; liquid metal topping cycle; open-cycle MHD; closed-cycle inert gas MHD; closed-cycle liquid metal MHD; and fuel cells. Results are presented.

Brown, D. H.↗

Cycle life test and failure model of nickel-hydrogen cells

Six ampere hour individual pressure vessel nickel hydrogen cells were charge/discharge cycled to failure. Failure as used here is defined to occur when the end of discharge voltage degraded to 0.9 volts. They were cycled under a low earth orbit cycle regime to a deep depth of discharge (80 percent of rated ampere hour capacity). Both cell designs were fabricated by the same manufacturer and represent current state of the art. A failure model was advanced which suggests both cell designs have inadequate volume tolerance characteristics. The limited existing data base at a deep depth of discharge (DOD) was expanded. Two cells of each design were cycled. One COMSAT cell failed at cycle 1712 and the other failed at cycle 1875. For the Air Force/Hughes cells, one cell failed at cycle 2250 and the other failed at cycle 2638. All cells, of both designs, failed due to low end of discharge voltage (0.9 volts). No cell failed due to electrical shorts. After cell failure, three different reconditioning tests (deep discharge, physical reorientation, and open circuit voltage stand) were conducted on all cells of each design. A fourth reconditioning test (electrolyte addition) was conducted on one cell of each design. In addition post cycle cell teardown and failure analysis were performed on the one cell of each design which did not have electrolyte added after failure.

Smithrick, J. J.↗

Solar cycle variations in the interplanetary magnetic field

ISEE 3 interplanetary magnetic field measurements have been used to extend the NSSDC hourly averaged IMF composite data set through mid-1982. Most of sunspot cycle 20 (start:1964) and the first half of cycle 21 (start:1976) are now covered. The average magnitude of the field was relatively constant over cycle 20 with approx. 5-10% decreases in 1969 and 1971, when the Sun's polar regions changed polarity, and a 20% decrease in 1975-6 around solar minimum. Since the start of the new cycle, the total field strength has risen with the mean for the first third of 1982 being about 40% greater than the cycle 20 average. As during the previous cycle, an approx. 10% drop in IMF magnitude accompanied the 1980 reversal of the solar magnetic field. While the interplanetary magnetic field is clearly stronger during the present solar cycle, another 5-7 years of observations will be needed to determine if cycle 21 exhibits the same modest variations as the last cycle. Accordingly, it appears at this time that intercycle changes in IMF magnitude may be much larger than the intracycle variations.

Slavin, J. A.↗

Cycle life test and failure model of nickel-hydrogen cells

Six ampere hour individual pressure vessel nickel hydrogen cells were charge/discharge cycled to failure. Failure as used here is defined to occur when the end of discharge voltage degraded to 0.9 volts. They were cycled under a low earth orbit cycle regime to a deep depth of discharge (80 percent of rated ampere hour capacity). Both cell designs were fabricated by the same manufacturer and represent current state of the art. A failure model was advanced which suggests both cell designs have inadequate volume tolerance characteristics. The limited existing data base at a deep depth of discharge (DOD) was expanded. Two cells of each design were cycled. One COMSAT cell failed at cycle 1712 and the other failed at cycle 1875. For the Air Force/Hughes cells, one cell failed at cycle 2250 and the other failed at cycle 2638. All cells, of both designs, failed due to low end of discharge voltage (0.9 volts). No cell failed due to electrical shorts. After cell failure, three different reconditioning tests (deep discharge, physical reorientation, and open circuit voltage stand) were conducted on all cells of each design. A fourth reconditioning test (electrolyte addition) was conducted on one cell of each design. In addition post cycle cell teardown and failure analysis were performed on the one cell of each design which did not have electrolyte added after failure. Previously announced in STAR as N83-25038

Smithrick, J. J.↗

Comparative evaluation of three alternative power cycles for waste heat recovery from the exhaust of adiabatic diesel engines

Three alternative power cycles were compared in application as an exhaust-gas heat-recovery system for use with advanced adiabatic diesel engines. The power cycle alternatives considered were steam Rankine, organic Rankine with RC-1 as the working fluid, and variations of an air Brayton cycle. The comparison was made in terms of fuel economy and economic payback potential for heavy-duty trucks operating in line-haul service. The results indicate that, in terms of engine rated specific fuel consumption, a diesel/alternative-power-cycle engine offers a significant improvement over the turbocompound diesel used as the baseline for comparison. The maximum imporvement resulted from the use of a Rankine cycle heat-recovery system in series with turbocompounding. The air Brayton cycle alternatives studied, which included both simple-cycle and compression-intercooled configurations, were less effective and provided about half the fuel consumption improvement of the Rankine cycle alternatives under the same conditions. Capital and maintenance cost estimates were also developed for each of the heat-recovery power cycle systems. These costs were integrated with the fuel savings to identify the time required for net annual savings to pay back the initial capital investment. The sensitivity of capital payback time to arbitrary increases in fuel price, not accompanied by corresponding hardware cost inflation, was also examined. The results indicate that a fuel price increase is required for the alternative power cycles to pay back capital within an acceptable time period.

Bailey, M. M.↗

On the prospect of using butterfly diagrams to predict cycle minimum

Features enabling the prediction of the beginning and the length of a solar cycle, in addition to the turning points in the period-growth dichotomy, have been identified based on butterfly diagrams for the period from 1874 to the present. The present results indicate that cycle 21 will be a long-period cycle ending after July 1987. On the assumption that April 1985 was the first occurrence of high latitude new cycle (cycle 22) spots during the decline of cycle 21 (the old cycle), it is suggested that the last occurrence of high latitude old cycle spots was September 1983 and that the minimum for cycle 22 will be about 1986.7 + or - 1.1 yr.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

A prediction for the maximum phase and duration of sunspot cycle 22

A projected value of the maximum amplitude of sunspot cycle 22 is used to predict the ascent, maximum phase, and length of the cycle. It is suggested that cycle 22 will have a lower maximum amplitude than cycle 21. This would make cycle 22 a 'negative-valued' maximum amplitude first-difference cycle with an ascent with a median value of 4 years. Cycle 22 is predicted to be a long-period cycle with a length in the range of 138 + or - 8 months. It is concluded that cycle 22 will probably peak sometime in the latter half of 1990 or the first half of 1991 and that it will not end until early to mid 1998.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

KOH concentration effect on the cycle life of nickel-hydrogen cells. 4: Results of failure analyse

Effects of KOH concentrations on failure modes and mechanisms of nickel-hydrogen cells were studied using long cycled boiler plate cells containing electrolytes of various KOH concentrations ranging 21 to 36 percent. Life of these cells were up to 40,000 cycles in an accelerated low earth orbit (LEO) cycle regime at 80 percent depth of discharge. An interim life test results were reported earlier in J. Power Sources, 22, 213-220, 1988. The results of final life test, end-of-life cell performance, and teardown analyses are discussed. These teardown analyses included visual observations, measurements of nickel electrode capacity in an electrolyte-flooded cell, dimensional changes of cell components, SEM studies on cell cross section, BET surface area and pore volume distribution in cycled nickel electrodes, and chemical analyses. Cycle life of a nickel-hydrogen cell was improved tremendously as KOH concentration was decreased from 36 to 31 percent and from 31 to 26 percent while effect of further concentration decrease was complicated as described in our earlier report. Failure mode of high concentration (31 to 36 percent) cells was gradual capacity decrease, while that of low concentration (21 to 26 percent) cells was mainly formation of a soft short. Long cycled (25,000 to 40,000 cycles) nickel electrodes were expanded more than 50 percent of the initial value, but no correlation was found between this expansion and measured capacity. All electrodes cycled in low concentration (21 to 26 percent) cells had higher capacity than those cycled in high concentration (31 to 36 percent) cells.

Lim, H. S.↗

The effect of temperature cycling typical of low earth orbit satellites on thin films of YBa2Cu3O(7-x)

The refrigeration of superconductors in space poses a challenging problem. The problem could be less severe if superconducting materials would not have to be cooled when not in use. Thin films of the YBa2Cu3O(7-x) (YBCO) superconductor were subjected to thermal cycling, which was carried out to simulate a large number of eclipses of a low earth orbit satellite. Electrical measurements were performed to find the effect of the temperature cycling. Thin films of YBCO were formed by coevaporation of Y, BaF2, and Cu and postannealing in wet oxygen at 850 C for 3.5 h. The substrates used were (100) SrTiO3, polycrystalline alumina, and oxidized silicon; the last two have an evaporated zirconia layer. Processing and microstructure studies of these types of films have been published. THe zero resistance transition temperatures of the samples used in this study were 91, 82, and 86 K, respectively. The samples were characterized by four point probe electrical measurements as a function of temperature. The parameters measured were: the zero resistance transition temperature, the 10 to 90 percent transition width, and the room temperature resistance, normalized to that measured before temperature cycling. The results for two samples are presented. Each sample had a cumulative exposure. Cycling in atmospheric pressure nitrogen was performed at a rate of about 60 cycles per day, whereas in vacuum the rate was only about 10 cycles per day. The results indicate only little or no changes in the parameters measured. Degradation of superconducting thin films of YBCO has been reported due to storage in nitrogen. It is believed that the relatively good performance of films after temperature cycling is related to the fact that BaF2 was used as an evaporation source. The latest result on extended temperature cycling indicates significant degradation. Further tests of extended cycling will be carried out to provide additional data and to clarify this preliminary finding.

Mogro-Campero, A.↗

Effect of mission cycling on the fatigue performance of SiC-coated carbon-carbon composites

The effects of thermal and pressure cycling on the fatigue performance of carbon-carbon composites, and the influence of mission cycling on these effects, were investigated by subjecting both virgin and mission-cycled two-dimensional specimens of SiC-coated carbon-carbon composites to fatigue tests, conducted at room temperature in three-point bending, with a stress ratio of 0.2 and a frequency of 1 Hz. It was found that the fatigue strength of C-C composites is high (about 90 percent of the ultimate flexural strength), but decreased with the mission cycling. The lowering of the fatigue strength with mission cycling is attributed to the increase in interfacial bond strength due to thermal and pressure cycling of the material. The already high sensitivity of C-C composites to stress during cyclic loading increases further with the amount of mission cycling. Results of NDE suggest that the damage growth in virgin C-C, in the high-cycle range, is slow at the initial stage of the cyclic life, but propagates rapidly after certain threshold cycles of the fatigue life.

Mahfuz, H.↗

Effects of temperature and humidity cycling on the strengths of textile reinforced carbon/epoxy composite materials

Results are presented from an experimental evaluation of the combined effects of temperature and humidity cycling on AS4/3501-6 composites (unstitched, Kevlar 29 stitched, and S-2 glass stitched uniweave fabric) and AS4/E905L composites (2-D, S-2 glass stitched 2-D, and 3-D braided fabric). The AS4/3501-6 uniweave material had a quasi-isotropic layup, whereas the AS4/E905L materials were braided in a (+/-30 deg/0 deg)(sub s) orientation. Data presented include compression strengths and compression-compression fatigue results for uncycled composites and cycled composites (160, 480, 720, and 1280 cycles from 140 deg F at 95 percent relative humidity to -67 deg F). To observe the presence of microcracking within the laminates, photomicrographs were taken of each material type at the end of each cycling period. Microcracks were found to be more prevalent within stitched laminates, predominantly around individual stitches. The glass stitched laminates showed significant microcracking even before cycling. Less microcracking was evident in the Kevlar stitched materials, whereas the unstitched uniweave material developed microcracks only after cycling. The 3-D braid did not develop microcracks. The static compression strengths of the unstitched and Kevlar stitched uniweave materials were degraded by about 10 percent after 1280 temperature/humidity cycles, whereas the reduction in compression strength for the glass stitched uniweave was less than 3 percent. The reduction in compression strength for the glass stitched 2-D braid was less than 8 percent. The unstitched 2-D and 3-D braids did not lose strength from temperature/humidity cycling. The compression-compression fatigue properties of all six material types were not affected by temperature/humidity cycling.

Cano, Roberto J.↗

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

Richardson, I. G.↗

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Whitlock, David↗