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DOE OSTI2020

An Online Search Method for Representative Risky Fault Chains Based on Reinforcement Learning and Knowledge Transfer

In the analysis of cascading outages and blackouts in power systems, risky cascading fault chains should be accurately identified in order to do further block or alleviate blackouts. However, the huge computational burden makes online analysis difficult. In this paper, an online search method for representative risky fault chains based on reinforcement learning and knowledge transfer is proposed. This method aims at promoting efficiency by exploiting similarities of adjacent power flow snapshots in operations. After the “representative risky fault chain” is defined, a framework of tree search based on Markov Decision Process and Q-learning is constructed. The knowledge in past runs is accumulated offline and then applied online, with a mechanism of knowledge transition and extension. The proposed learning based approach is verified on an illustrative 39-bus system with different loading levels, and simulations are carried out on a realworld 1000-bus power grid in China to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Blackout↗

NASA NTRS1990

GENEX: A knowledge-based expert assistant for Genbank data analysis

We describe a knowledge-based expert assistant, GENEX (Gene Explorer), that simplifies some analysis of Genbank data. GENEX is written in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System), and expert system tool, developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The main purpose of the system is to look for gene start site annotations, unusual DNA sequence composition, and regulatory protein patterns. application where determinations are made via a decision tree.

Batra, Sajeev↗

NASA NTRS2004

Communicating Medical Needs to Non-Medical Managers

Differences in communication styles and languages between groups often lead to miscommunication, confusion, and/or frustration. Engineers, computer specialists, clinicians, and managers often utilize the English language in very different ways, with different groups using the same words to represent different concepts ("complaint" is a typical example). In addition, medical issues are often perceived as "off-nominal" and not "primary mission tasks" by managers, which can cause them to assign lower priorities to medical training time and resources. Knowledge bases differ due to variations in training and skill sets, and the goals (both immediate and long-term) of the communicators may also vary, with managers being primarily concerned with overall mission objectives, while clinicians focus on individual or group health issues. Furthermore, true communication is only possible when clinicians possess a deep understanding of mission requirements as well as the ability to communicate medical requirements on a priority basis using risk assessment, added value, and cost benefit analysis. These understandable differences may contribute to difficulties in expressing concerns and ideas in an efficient manner, particularly in projects, such as the space program or many military operations, where these varied groups must collaborate, and where the final decisions must be made by fully informed mission commanders. Methods: Three scenario-based approaches were developed utilizing decision trees and problem based learning, to help define and integrate these concepts. Results: Use of these techniques by NASA and military personnel will be presented. Discussion: To enhance communication, particularly of medical needs, one must identify the concerns and motivating factors for the other groups; for example, members of management may focus on financial concerns, a desire for risk mitigation, public perceptions, mission objectives, etc. Training clinicians to frame issues in these terms may lead to better understanding of the medical concerns by other groups.

Bacal, Kira↗

NASA NTRS2011

Optimization of Adaboost Algorithm for Sonar Target Detection in a Multi-Stage ATR System

JPL has developed a multi-stage Automated Target Recognition (ATR) system to locate objects in images. First, input images are preprocessed and sent to a Grayscale Optical Correlator (GOC) filter to identify possible regions-of-interest (ROIs). Second, feature extraction operations are performed using Texton filters and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Finally, the features are fed to a classifier, to identify ROIs that contain the targets. Previous work used the Feed-forward Back-propagation Neural Network for classification. In this project we investigate a version of Adaboost as a classifier for comparison. The version we used is known as GentleBoost. We used the boosted decision tree as the weak classifier. We have tested our ATR system against real-world sonar images using the Adaboost approach. Results indicate an improvement in performance over a single Neural Network design.

Adaboost↗

NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Safie, Fayssal↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using Machine Learning for Quantum Annealing Accuracy Prediction

Quantum annealers, such as the device built by D-Wave Systems, Inc., offer a way to compute solutions of NP-hard problems that can be expressed in Ising or quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) form. Although such solutions are typically of very high quality, problem instances are usually not solved to optimality due to imperfections of the current generations quantum annealers. In this contribution, we aim to understand some of the factors contributing to the hardness of a problem instance, and to use machine learning models to predict the accuracy of the D-Wave 2000Q annealer for solving specific problems. We focus on the maximum clique problem, a classic NP-hard problem with important applications in network analysis, bioinformatics, and computational chemistry. By training a machine learning classification model on basic problem characteristics such as the number of edges in the graph, or annealing parameters, such as the D-Wave’s chain strength, we are able to rank certain features in the order of their contribution to the solution hardness, and present a simple decision tree which allows to predict whether a problem will be solvable to optimality with the D-Wave 2000Q. We extend these results by training a machine learning regression model that predicts the clique size found by D-Wave.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1991

Systematic methods for knowledge acquisition and expert system development

Nine cooperating rule-based systems, collectively called AUTOCREW which were designed to automate functions and decisions associated with a combat aircraft's subsystems, are discussed. The organization of tasks within each system is described; performance metrics were developed to evaluate the workload of each rule base and to assess the cooperation between the rule bases. Simulation and comparative workload results for two mission scenarios are given. The scenarios are inbound surface-to-air-missile attack on the aircraft and pilot incapacitation. The methodology used to develop the AUTOCREW knowledge bases is summarized. Issues involved in designing the navigation sensor selection expert in AUTOCREW's NAVIGATOR knowledge base are discussed in detail. The performance of seven navigation systems aiding a medium-accuracy INS was investigated using Kalman filter covariance analyses. A navigation sensor management (NSM) expert system was formulated from covariance simulation data using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method and the ID3 algorithm. ANOVA results show that statistically different position accuracies are obtained when different navaids are used, the number of navaids aiding the INS is varied, the aircraft's trajectory is varied, and the performance history is varied. The ID3 algorithm determines the NSM expert's classification rules in the form of decision trees. The performance of these decision trees was assessed on two arbitrary trajectories, and the results demonstrate that the NSM expert adapts to new situations and provides reasonable estimates of the expected hybrid performance.

Belkin, Brenda L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of Dielectric Constant in Series of Polymers by Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR)

This work is devoted to the investigation of dielectric permittivity which is influenced by electronic, ionic, and dipolar polarization mechanisms, contributing to the material’s capacity to store electrical energy. In this study, an extended dataset of 86 polymers was analyzed, and two quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models were developed to predict dielectric permittivity. From an initial set of 1273 descriptors, the most relevant ones were selected using a genetic algorithm, and machine learning models were built using the Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR). In contrast to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)- and Partial Least Squares (PLS)-based models, the gradient boosting models excel in handling nonlinear relationships and multicollinearity, iteratively optimizing decision trees to improve accuracy without overfitting. The developed GBR models showed high R2 coefficients of 0.938 and 0.822, for the training and test sets, respectively. An Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) technique was applied to assess the relationship between the selected descriptors—eight for the GB_A model and six for the GB_B model, and their impact on target property. ALE analysis revealed that descriptors such as TDB09m had a strong positive effect on permittivity, while MLOGP2 showed a negative effect. These results highlight the effectiveness of the GBR approach in predicting the dielectric properties of polymers, offering improved accuracy and interpretability.

Ascencio-Medina, Estefania↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ArcjetCV: Automating Arc Jet Analysis

Arc jet Computer Vision (arcjetCV) is a software application built to automate time-resolved recession tracking of edges in test videos, specifically for tracking material recession and the shock-material standoff. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes and an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcticCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials and characterizing certain failure modes.

Recession tracking↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Redundancy-Guided Approach for the Hazard Analysis of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Advanced Nuclear Power Plants

We report digital instrumentation and control (I&C) upgrades are a vital research area for the nuclear industry. Despite their performance benefits, deployment of digital I&C in nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been limited. Digital I&C systems exhibit complex failure modes including common cause failures (CCFs), which can be difficult to identify. This paper describes the development of a redundancy-guided application of the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis and fault tree analysis for the hazard analysis of digital I&C in advanced NPPs. The resulting Redundancy-Guided Systems-Theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) is applied for the case study of a representative state-of-the-art digital reactor trip system. The analysis qualitatively and systematically identifies the most critical CCFs and other hazards of digital I&C systems. Ultimately, the RESHA can help researchers make informed decisions for how, and to what degree, defensive measures such as redundancy, diversity, and defense in depth can be used to mitigate or eliminate the potential hazards of digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seeing the forest for the trees: implementing dynamic representation of forest management and forest carbon in a long-term global multisector model

Abstract Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ArcjetCV: A New Machine Learning Application for Extracting Time-Resolved Recession Measurements From Arc Jet Test Videos

Arc jet Computer Vision (ArcjetCV) is a software application built to automate analysis of arc jet ground test video footage. This includes tracking material recession and the shock-material standoff distance. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes. This is an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcjetCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials and characterizing certain failure modes.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

arcjetCV: A New Machine Learning Application for Extracting Time-Resolved Recession Measurements From Arc Jet Test Videos

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2020

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ArcjetCV: a new machine learning application for extracting time-resolved recession measurements from arc jet test videos

Arc jet Computer Vision (ArcjetCV) is a software application built to automate analysis of arc jet ground test video footage. This includes tracking material recession, sting arm motion, and the shock-material standoff distance. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes. This is an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcjetCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ArcjetCV: A New Machine Learning Application for Extracting Time-Resolved Recession Measurements From Arc Jet Test Videos

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2020

Adaptive Stress Testing: Finding Likely Failure Events with Reinforcement Learning

Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical systems that operate over a sequence of time steps, such as aircraft collision avoidance systems and autonomous cars. In many applications such as autonomous driving, failures cannot be completely eliminated due to the complex stochastic environment in which the system operates.As a result, safety validation is not only concerned about whether a failure can occur, but also discovering which failures are most likely to occur. This article presents adaptive stress testing (AST), a framework for finding the most likely path to a failure event in simulation. We consider a general black box setting for partially observable and continuous-valued systems operating in an environment with stochastic disturbances. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use reinforcement learning to optimize it. The approach is simulation-based and does not require internal knowledge of the system, making it suitable for black-box testing of large systems. We present different formulations depending on whether the state is fully observable or partially observable. In the latter case, we present a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that only requires access to the pseudorandom number generator of the simulator to overcome partial observability. We also present an extension of the framework, called differential adaptive stress testing (DAST), that can find failures that occur in one system but not in another. This type of differential analysis is useful in applications such as regression testing, where we are concerned with finding areas of relative weakness compared to a baseline. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an aircraft collision avoidance application, where a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system is stress tested to find the most likely scenarios of near mid-air collision.

Verification and Validation↗