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At least 127 records · Page 7

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DOE OSTI2025

Approaching hydro-equivalent ignition in laser direct-drive via target design optimization using novel statistical modeling

Laser direct-drive offers significant advantages in terms of target simplicity, improved energy coupling, and large fuel masses over indirect drive. However, performance degradations from hydrodynamic and laser-plasma instabilities seeded and driven by the direct illumination pose limitations on the parameter space available for achieving ignition. In this paper, new design improvements are identified to forge a path forward for a hydro-equivalent ignition demonstration. The first is related to a new formulation of the statistical model (SM) used to accurately predict target performance directly from input parameters such as laser pulse shape and target specifications. This new SM formulation provides direct guidance on target dimensions and laser beam-to-target radius to achieve the highest fusion yield on the OMEGA laser. The second improvement comes from cooling the deuterium–tritium (DT) ice layer below the triple point right before shot time leading to lower DT vapor densities and higher convergence. Guided by these design improvements, a Bayesian optimization algorithm was used to design an implosion that is predicted to closely approach a Lawson triple product that hydrodynamically scales to ignition if equivalent laser–target coupling is achieved at laser energies typical of the National Ignition Facility.

Deuterium↗

DOE OSTI2025

Correlating hot-electron preheat from the two-plasmon decay instability to $ρR$ degradation for direct-drive implosions on OMEGA

Focused experiments were performed with the goal of isolating the impact of hot-electron preheat on compression in deuterium–tritium (DT) layered, direct-drive implosions on OMEGA. Preheat from the hot-electrons generated by two-plasmon–decay (TPD) activity was varied through the incident laser intensity, with the total preheat energy deposited into unablated DT fuel being inferred using hard x-ray measurements. Results show a clear correlation between the inferred preheat levels and $ρR$ degradation that is consistent with a derived, 1D preheat model. A fit to the results also provides an estimated range of $ρR$ degradation from non-preheat sources for the adiabat ≈5 implosions used in this study. A follow-up study using targets containing Si-doped (5.5%) CH ablators (CHSi) demonstrated results consistent with mid-Z dopants mitigating TPD activity by showing these targets had almost no $ρR$ degradation as the laser intensity was increased up to levels previously considered damaging.

Doping↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of dynamic-screw-pinch-driven, current-scaled MagLIF target implosion performance using 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Analytic studies and two-dimensional “clean” radiation-magnetohydrodynamic (rad-MHD) simulations employing dynamical similarity driver-target scaling prescriptions [Ruiz et al., Phys. Plasmas 30, 032708 (2023)] suggest that Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) target implosions can scale to > 10 MJ DT fusion yields when peak drive current is increased beyond 60 MA. We present results from three-dimensional (3D) rad-MHD simulations of similarity-scaled MagLIF target implosions at peak drive currents ranging from 15 to 40 MA. Simulations in this study suggest that magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability (MRTI) growth and feedthrough to the fuel region are more severe at higher drive current scales, which reduces the fusion yield compared to prior analytic and 2D clean simulation predictions. In contrast to standard MagLIF, simulations of current-scaled MagLIF target implosions driven by a dynamic screw pinch (DSP) demonstrate reduced MRTI feedthrough and greater fuel magnetization, resulting in improved thermonuclear performance and enhanced performance scaling with peak drive current. DSP drive enables additional scaling of the liner mass to increase liner radius but maintain implosion time, resulting in higher implosion velocities at the expense of increased susceptibility to MRTI. We present a current- and mass-scaled simulated DSP-MagLIF target implosion at the ∼ 40 MA peak current level that produces ignition scale performance, demonstrating a burn-averaged Lawson ignition parameter above unity and DT fusion yield above 1 MJ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving indirect-drive ablator performance through pulse shaping and material selection in double shell implosions

The double shell path to inertially confined volumetric thermonuclear burn relies on efficient kinetic energy transfer from an outer ablator shell to an inner shell containing DT fuel at implosion velocities near 250 km/s. In order to experimentally realize adequate compression, target imperfections and assembly features must be tightly controlled. Pulse shape and ablator material are critical design choices that impact all aspects of the implosion. In this article, we evaluate three designs: an Al ablator with single-shock radiation drive, a CH ablator with single-shock drive, and a CH ablator with reduced-adiabat 2-shock drive. All designs use the same W inner (pusher) shell overcoated with a glow discharge polymer tamper and filled with liquid-density DT. One-dimensional HYDRA simulations revealed that the plastic ablator design required the use of the 2-shock drive to match the performance of the Al design. Two-dimensional simulations resolving broadband surface roughness up to modes of several hundred placed only on the ablator showed plastic to greatly outperform Al. The plastic ablator designs did exhibit higher levels of inner shell instability growth when surface roughness was only placed at the pusher/tamper interface, which was mitigated with higher foam cushion densities. A unique and additional benefit of a plastic ablator is also discussed, where heating of the ablator by Au M-band radiation is predicted to rapidly expand the hemi-shell surfaces, closing the equatorial joint gap ahead of the first shock. Taken together, the properties of the plastic ablator for indirect-drive double shell implosions appear promising in removing several long-standing fabrication challenges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fast ion confinement in quasi-axisymmetric stellarator equilibria

This report presents an initial analysis of the fast ion confinement and losses within quasi-axisymmetric stellarator equilibria in consideration by Thea Energy. The equilibria have not yet been explicitly optimized for fast particle confinement and require validation. Modeling with the ASCOT5 code is used to directly examine the fast ion transport. The particle tracking simulations are purely (neo)classical in nature and simply contain the supplied equilibrium and collisions (pitch-angle, energy slowing, and velocity diffusion) from supplied thermal profiles. Uniform marker deposition is used to probe the general confinement properties of the equilibria while a realistic beam-born population is provided from the BEAMS3D code and an alpha particle population is calculated from a fusion source integrator. A first wall is included and defines the loss boundary. Analysis for NBI ions within Thea Energy’s conceptual Eos neutron source are presented along with alpha particles in an enlarged DT-plasma. The fast ions are assessed in regards to their confinement time, pitch, energy, and spatial coordinates. For each population, the impact of collisions and orbit drifts are discussed. It is found that NBI born ions in Eos are strongly confined until slowing-down, owing largely to the tangential injection geometry, while 22% of DT-born alpha energy is lost in the scaled device, indicating that any fusion pilot plant design optimization should include metrics for fast ion confinement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Isotopic mass effects of tritium-fueled high-performance TFTR supershots

An increase in total stored energy correlated with the addition of tritium fuel was observed in supershots during the TFTR DT campaign. This supershot regime had strikingly high, centrally peaked ion and electron temperatures, and the largest neutron emission rates observed in TFTR. This paper presents a study of the causes of this increase in stored energy in supershots. Twenty-six supershots have been recently reanalyzed with the TRANSP plasma analysis code. Early TRANSP simulations did not accurately match the measured magnitude and time evolutions of the neutron emission rates. This mismatch is attributed to neglecting apparent increases of trace amounts of heavy impurities during neutral beam injection. The new TRANSP runs were tuned to accommodate this and match the measured global neutron emission rates. These new runs also had improved fidelity in predicting the time histories and radial dependencies of measured DT neutron emission rates. That in turn adds confidence in the simulated thermal deuterium and tritium density profiles that are needed for calculating the average hydrogenic atomic mass profiles. Six subsets of these supershots had well matched toroidal field B tor , plasma current I p , flux geometry, and total injected neutral beam power. The mix of D and T beam ions was varied for different discharges. The magnitude of the increase of the thermal ion energy W i with added tritium was relatively small, and the total W tot increase is dominated by the increase in fast beam ions with T. Analyses at times before the occurrences of deleterious MHD instabilities yielded scaling of W tot with the volume-average isotopic mass consistent with previous publications. The relative fraction of fast energy ions is expected to be small in practical tokamak reactors. Thus the increase in stored energy W tot observed in TFTR supershots does not appear likely to be significantly helpful for producing useful fusion energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated operation scenarios: Chapter 6 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

Here we report the progress of the development and optimization of operational scenarios for ITER and beyond, focusing upon baseline, hybrid, and steady-state scenarios since 2007. This includes advancements made by the integrated operation scenarios (IOS) topical group of the international tokamak physical activity as well as contributions from the broader tokamak community. The key area of research involves developing IOSs that encompass tokamak physics, operation, and technology by utilizing integrated modeling and control strategies. This requires leveraging available actuators to simultaneously control plasma position and shape, MHD activities that could lead to disruptions, transport, plasma-wall interaction and power exhaust, fuel cycle, fusion burn, and tritium breeding. The control extends from the plasma initiation phase, through the current ramp-up, flattop, start and end of the fusion burn, and current ramp-down, to the plasma termination phase. A review of the currently developed scenarios and modeling is provided in terms of (i) optimizing plasma initiation in ITER, (ii) preparing for the low activation phase to fully commission all tokamak systems and establish and validate physics and scenario conditions in preparation for deuterim-tritium (DT) operation, (iii) developing and preparing baseline and hybrid scenarios to demonstrate the feasibility of achieving these regimes within device constraints, (iv) exploring steady-state scenarios to meet ITER’s steady-state goals, (v) evaluating and preparing actuators for ITER, (vi) developing integrated control solutions using shared actuators. The most notable achievements include; (i) the development of ITER demonstration discharges by matching various dimensionless parameters, (ii) the development of scenarios in an ITER-like tungsten environment and DT operation, and (iii) the development of scenarios in superconducting tokamaks, enabling long-pulse operations with similar coil constraints to ITER. Along with these significant achievements, outstanding issues and recommendations for further research and development are provided. Importantly, this study goes beyond simply updating the ITER Physics Basis; it carries profound implications for the broader field of burning plasma research, offering valuable insights and guidance for the next generation of fusion experiments and devices.

ITER↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an ab initio learned model of electron deposition range in deuterium-tritium plasmas through time-dependent density functional theory calculations and machine learning

Accurate hydrodynamic modeling for laser-direct-drive (LDD) inertial-confinement-fusion (ICF) relies on precise calculations of the electron thermal conduction in all target materials. The nonlocal stopping range of electrons in ICF plasmas directly influences thermal conduction; yet, no first principles model exists for the electron mean free path in the conduction-zone regime. This work utilized time-dependent stochastic density-functional theory (TD-sDFT) to calculate the electron stopping power in deuterium-tritium (DT) plasmas at (ρ, T) conditions relevant to the conduction zone and the compressed shell in ICF. Using a combination of our TD-sDFT data and already established analytical models, we developed and trained an artificial neural network to create a global model for the nonlocal electron deposition range, λ E . We compared our machine-learning (ML) based model for λ E to the currently-used modified-Lee-More model in LDD radiation-hydrodynamic codes, such as lilac, and saw an overall decrease in the deposition range. To understand the effects of λ E on LDD ICF implosion dynamics, we implemented the ML-based model into lilac; specifically, we looked at designs consistent with a current experiment on the OMEGA laser and for a newly designed LDD-ICF target for the future OMEGA-Next facility. In both cases, we saw an overall drop in predicted ablation pressure, peak areal density, and neutron yield due to the reduced thermal conduction (smaller λ E ) in DT plasmas. Comparisons with the experiment on OMEGA are also made.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Utilizing the deuterium-tritium fusion resonance to diagnose thermal runaway in igniting plasmas

For high-efficiency inertial confinement fusion implosions, it is predicted that a burning hot spot will successfully encompass all surrounding fuel and then transition into a thermal runaway where the internal energy increase from fusion occurs on a timescale faster than the expansion of the fuel is able to quench the fusion chain reaction after ignition occurs. Observation of this dynamic phase transition would indicate distinct burn properties and indicate an implosion's robustness. A technique for diagnosing the presence of thermal runaway from measurements of nuclear reaction history is presented. The technique is based on taking the logarithmic derivative of the nuclear reaction history, called the 𝛼 curve, and allowing a mathematical decoupling of the mass, volume, and thermal reactivity in the fusion reaction rate equation. During thermal runaway, where the thermal temperature dominates the burn dynamics, a maximum in the 𝛼 curve is found where there is a maximum in the first derivative of the thermal fusion reactivity, an effect to the deuterium-tritium (DT) fusion cross-section resonance. This provides a distinct signature related to the fundamental nature of the DT fusion nuclear resonance and signifies the transition into the fusion thermal instability. Impacts of charged particle transport on the effect are also assessed and the analytical formulas are compared and found to be in agreement with radiation hydrodynamic codes.

high-energy-density plasmas↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Digital Twin for Reliability Assessment of DC/DC Buck Converter

In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Anomaly Detection For Continuous Streams

The code implements the Isolation Forest (IFML) algorithm within the digital twin (DT) of the AGN-201 nuclear reactor. The DT captures real-time operational data including control rod positions, reactor power, and temperature. The IFML model isolates anomalies by detecting patterns that deviate from expected operational behavior. The algorithm recursively partitions the data and assigns anomaly scores based on the isolation of rare and different events. By tuning parameters specific to the reactor’s operational data, the IFML identifies deviations such as unauthorized material insertions or reactor reactivity shifts. The system streams data using LabView and integrates with the DeepLynx data warehouse for anomaly processing.

Trevino, Eduardo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital twin framework for PIP-II linac: AI-driven multi-scale modeling from ion source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab is designed to deliver multi-megawatt proton beams for neutrino physics and other high-intensity applications. To expedite commissioning and enhance operational reliability, we have developed an EPICS-based data flow framework that seamlessly integrates digital twins (DT) with physical twins (PT). These digital twins comprise high-fidelity beam dynamics models or data-driven surrogate models connected to their physical counterparts through real-time diagnostics and advanced machine-learning algorithms.Central to this framework is Linac_Gen, an accelerated simulation tool that incorporates convolutional neural networks, random forests, and genetic algorithms to provide up to a tenfold speedup in optimizing the accelerator geometry model. An EPICS translator layer ensures interoperability by efficiently mapping lattice parameters across diverse simulation platforms.Our EPICS-based framework supports multiple operational modes—monitoring, passive learning, closed-loop control, and online learning—covering the entire machine lifecycle. By leveraging HPC resources and multi-objective optimization techniques, the digital twin enables adaptive trajectory correction, real-time fault detection, and predictive modeling of beam stability. This comprehensive approach paves the way for robust, high-intensity operation and data-driven accelerator R&D at Fermilab.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Strategy to Develop a Control Scheme for Core Thermal Performance Optimization

This report outlines a three-year research plan for optimizing reactor core thermal performance through use of a Digital Twin (DT) model and a set of neutron detectors to correspondingly adapt the reactor control strategy. It identifies reactor features and achievable neutron measurements that factor into this optimization task. It considers spatial effects that are important and how they can be managed by a real-time algorithm that controls reactivity actuators. The report presents a set of tasks, along with corresponding methods, for accomplishing this objective. The final task in this set is to validate the combined optimization procedure in the Purdue University’s PUR-1 reactor, for which we have an agreement of understanding. Additionally, we describe an alternative approach for overcoming some of the limitations inherent in the above approach, which includes the computational costs of high-fidelity simulations and achievable integration of neutron measurements into the DT. The proposed algorithms lower the technology readiness level (TRL) of the overall approach as some additional analysis and the development of a new neutron detector concept are necessary. In particular, a sensor measuring the gradient of the neutron flux is required, and the prototype is expected to be validated in the PUR-1 reactor. The potential benefits and the opportunity to significantly push forward the state-of-the-art make this approach worthy of further exploration in the upcoming years.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deployment of Digital Twins and Advanced Instrumentation to Identify Looseness Between Rotor Spider Arms and Rim Attachment in Hydro Turbines

The project aimed to develop a Virtual Sensor Digital Twin (VS-DT) to monitor rotor rim float displacement (RRFD) in legacy hydropower turbines. RRFD, if undetected, can cause rotor and stator damage, leading to costly repairs and safety concerns. The purpose of the VS-DT was to predict RRFD signals using existing conventional sensors instead of installing dedicated, costly physical sensors, thereby reducing operational costs and enhancing safety.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Digital Twin User Guide for Chelan County Public Utility District

This user manual offers a comprehensive guide for developing a Digital twin (DT) of a Kaplan turbine at Chelan County Public Utility District (Chelan PUD) using neural networks. As variable renewable generation expands, hydropower units must operate with optimal efficiency and stability. For Kaplan machines, this flexibility is achieved through coordinated control of guide vane (wicket gates) opening and runner blade pitch, which amplifies the plant’s inherent nonlinear behavior and challenges traditional physics-only modeling. The efficiency of the Kaplan turbine varies with different combinations of the guide vans (wicket gate) opening and the blade angle. Each guide van opening and blade angle has a corresponding highest efficiency point, forming a cam relationship that represents the optimal combination.The discharge of a hydraulic turbine is controlled by the opening angle of the guide vans. Therefore, for each value of head, there is a certain guide van opening and blade angle that corresponds to the highest efficiency. For a given head, different combinations of the guide van opening and blade angle have different efficiencies. Therefore, coordinate cam curves are used to describe the relationship between the wicket gate opening and blade angle with different water head. To address these challenges, the manual details a data-driven modeling and learning workflow centered on structured neural networks. The approach is designed to forecast critical operational variables—discharge flow, net head, penstock (or scroll-case) pressure, and generator electrical outputs—by leveraging real-time inputs such as the generator power control setpoint, exciter field current and field voltage, together with hydromechanical commands (e.g., gate position and, when available, runner blade-pitch angle). The neural models are trained and validated on operational data from a Kaplan unit operated by Chelan PUD, demonstrating that the structured NN architecture can learn the coupled gate–blade–electrical dynamics. The result is a robust DT that improves situational awareness and supports data-informed decision-making for Chelan PUD’s Kaplan turbine operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1983

X-ray diffraction analysis of Nb-3Ge and NbGe alloys

Of all the A-15 samples of NbGe alloy examined, DT 094 is unique in that it was at least 99% pure A-15 phase. Also its diffraction peaks were noisy as if there were about a one percent compositional variation on this phase. DT 094, however, was only a large fragment of the drop tube drop, and thus its small sample size may have reduced the intensity, thus enhancing fluctuations enough to explain some of the loss of peak resolution.

Davis, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The efficient numerical calculation of condensational cloud drop growth

A modified Runge-Kutta integration technique is applied to condensational cloud droplet growth calculations, using the device of limiting dr, the growth of a droplet of radius r over the time step dt to some function of the absolute value of r(eq)-r, where r(eq) denotes the equilibrium value. The use of variable time steps to obtain an efficient choice of dt is also discussed. Results using these techniques are compared with those obtained with the standard fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, showing that the modified technique reduces the requisite computer time by a factor of about one hundred.

Robinson, N. F.↗