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At least 127 records · Page 7

Digital Tools for the Preventive Conservation of Built Heritage: The Church of Santa Ana in Seville

Historic Building Information Modelling (HBIM) plays a pivotal role in heritage conservation endeavours, offering a robust framework for digitally documenting existing structures and supporting conservation practices. However, HBIM’s efficacy hinges upon the implementation of case-specific approaches to address the requirements and resources of each individual asset and context. This paper defines a flexible and generalisable workflow that encompasses various aspects (i.e., documentation, surveying, vulnerability assessment) to support risk-informed decision making in heritage management tailored to the peculiar conservation needs of the structure. This methodology includes an initial investigation covering historical data collection, metric and condition surveys and non-destructive testing. The second stage includes Finite Element Method (FEM) modelling and structural analysis. All data generated and processed are managed in a multi-purpose HBIM model. The methodology is tested on a relevant case study, namely, the church of Santa Ana in Seville, chosen for its historical significance, intricacy and susceptibility to seismic action. The defined level of detail of the HBIM model is sufficient to inform the structural analysis, being balanced by a more accurate representation of the alterations, through linked orthophotos and a comprehensive list of alphanumerical parameters. This ensures an adequate level of information, optimising the trade-off between model complexity, investigation time requirements, computational burden and reliability in the decision-making process. Field testing and FEM analysis provide valuable insight into the main sources of vulnerability in the building, including the connection between the tower and nave and the slenderness of the columns.

Chaves, Estefanía↗

Hybrid data-driven cement-stabilized soil design: An integration of machine learning, multi-objective optimization, and life cycle assessment

Soil stabilization is crucial in geotechnical engineering, yet conventional methods are often time-consuming, resource-intensive, and environmentally unsustainable. Despite growing interest in Machine Learning (ML) and optimization tools for mix design, few studies integrate these methods with decision-making techniques and environmental assessment to support practical implementation. This study proposes a hybrid data-driven framework for predicting strength, optimizing mix compositions, and evaluating environmental impacts via life cycle assessment of cement-stabilized soft soils. Six ML models were evaluated, and the top-performing eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model was further improved using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The optimized XGB-GWO model, integrated with a polynomial cost function, served as the objective function in a multi-objective optimization problem solved via the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with final mix selection guided by the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method. Validation through a case study produced mix designs offering superior strength-cost trade-offs, with the optimal mix achieving 2243.2 kPa unconfined compressive strength and a 16.07 % reduction in carbon emissions compared to the highest-cost design. In conclusion, this study offers a sustainable, scalable approach to soil stabilization and supports informed decision-making in construction.

Life cycle assessment↗

Economic and environmental performance of biomass gasification for renewable natural gas production in the context of the U.S. natural gas supply

Bioenergy technologies offer potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One such promising technology is biomass gasification, which is the conversion of biomass into renewable natural gas (RNG) for use with a natural gas combined-cycle power generation system. However, the associated economic and emission effects need to be better understood to enable optimal decision-making and avoid missed opportunities for enhancing efficiency and increasing system circularity. This analysis explores opportunities to (1) decarbonize natural-gas-based systems and (2) leverage the extensive US natural gas infrastructure to mobilize biomass resources to achieve environmental and economic benefits. Here, in this analysis, the research team used a spatially explicit biomass logistics model (integrated with relevant biomass availability, technoeconomic analysis, and life cycle assessment information) to simulate economically optimal biomass allocation for RNG production and use for decarbonization in the United States. Results show that the United States has the potential to produce 9203 million GJ of RNG within the expected range of $\$$12–30/GJ. Further analyses tested the overall RNG production system's sensitivity to economic and emissions parameters of nine different processes. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the median carbon abatement cost of RNG is most sensitive to changes in emissions associated with conversion processes and land use changes. These findings provide a deeper understanding of RNG's economic and emission potential for decision-making and guiding future research.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Autonomous organic synthesis for redox flow batteries via flexible batch Bayesian optimization

Traditional trial-and-error methods for materials discovery are inefficient to meet the urgent demands posed by the rapid progression of climate change. This urgency has driven the increasing interest in integrating robotics and machine learning into materials research to accelerate experimental learning. However, idealized decision-making frameworks to achieve maximum sampling efficiency are not always compatible with high-throughput experimental workflows inside a laboratory. For multi-step chemical processes, differences in hardware capacities can complicate the digital framework by introducing constraints on the maximum number of samples in each step of the experiment, hence causing varying batch sizes in variable selection within the same batch. Therefore, designing flexible sampling algorithms is necessary to accommodate the multi-step synthesis with practical constraints unique to each high-throughput workflow. In this work, we designed and employed three strategies on a high-throughput robotic platform to optimize the sulfonation reaction of redox-active molecules used in flow batteries. Our strategies adapt to the multi-step experimental workflow, where their formulation and heating steps are separate, causing varying batch size requirements. By strategically sampling using clustering and mixed-variable batch Bayesian optimization, we were able to iteratively identify optimal conditions that maximize the yields. Our work presents a flexible approach that allows tailoring the machine learning decision-making to suit the practical constraints in individual high-throughput experimental platforms, followed by performing resource-efficient yield optimization using available open-source Python libraries.

Tamura, Clara [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (U↗

A Privacy First Path Analysis using Clickstream Data

In the modern digital economy, data-driven decision making is crucial for effectively meeting the ever-evolving demands of consumer engagement and satisfaction. Clickstream data has become invaluable for understanding customer behavior, yet concerns over privacy and security persist, especially with some internet service providers profiting from its sale. This article introduces an innovative methodology that blends experiential learning with advanced cryptographic techniques, including differential privacy and graph analytics. The core objective of this methodology is to estimate Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) by analyzing clickstream data, achieving an average prediction accuracy of 92.4% in user engagement levels while ensuring user anonymity through Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) analysis. Our study introduces the concept of a “data depositor” and a privacy manager, employing the composition theorem to merge non-adaptive queries effectively. Privacy budgets (? = 1.0, d = 10-5), sensitivity-specific techniques, and data partitioning were applied. Randomization and noise addition protect data integrity, with special handling for categorical values. This approach, differing from prior studies, offers a 12.6% improvement in privacy-preserving targeting accuracy while maintaining strict confidentiality, presenting a novel path forward in data-driven decision-making.

Frequency and Monetary (RFM) analysis↗

When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?

Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10-40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. Here we use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25-30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning (Vale, 2014). Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities (Malloy & Ashcraft, 2020; Adger, 2003). Such participatory planning processes may offer the public little opportunity to influence the process itself or the outcomes (Smith & McDonough, 2001). They might ignore important public values or alternative ways of knowing which can be critical assets in resilience (Few et al., 2007). Designing communities for climate action and resilience means creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape those decisions and experience related benefits. Having the opportunity to shape one’s community is necessary for human flourishing (Allen, 2016). Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My mixed methods research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities, offices of community engagement, and practitioners. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings. References: Adger, W. N. (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography, 79, 387-404. Allen, D. (2016). Toward a connected society. Our compelling interests: The value of diversity for democracy and a prosperous society, 71-105. Few, R., Brown, K., & Tompkins, E. L. (2007). Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion. Climate Policy, 7(1), 46–59. Malloy, J. T., & Ashcraft, C. M. (2020). A framework for implementing socially just climate adaptation. Climatic Change, 160(1), 1–14. Smith, P. D., & McDonough, M. H. (2001). Beyond public participation: Fairness in natural resource decision making. Society & natural resources, 14(3), 239-249. Vale, L. J. (2014). The politics of resilient cities: whose resilience and whose city? Building Research & Information, 42(2), 191–201.

Callaham, Shannon↗

Personalized, disease-stage specific, rapid identification of immunosuppression in sepsis

Introduction Data overlapping of different biological conditions prevents personalized medical decision-making. For example, when the neutrophil percentages of surviving septic patients overlap with those of non-survivors, no individualized assessment is possible. To ameliorate this problem, an immunological method was explored in the context of sepsis. Methods Blood leukocyte counts and relative percentages as well as the serum concentration of several proteins were investigated with 4072 longitudinal samples collected from 331 hospitalized patients classified as septic (n=286), non-septic (n=43), or not assigned (n=2). Two methodological approaches were evaluated: (i) a reductionist alternative, which analyzed variables in isolation; and (ii) a non-reductionist version, which examined interactions among six (leukocyte-, bacterial-, temporal-, personalized-, population-, and outcome-related) dimensions. Results The reductionist approach did not distinguish outcomes: the leukocyte and serum protein data of survivors and non-survivors overlapped. In contrast, the non-reductionist alternative differentiated several data groups, of which at least one was only composed of survivors (a finding observable since hospitalization day 1). Hence, the non-reductionist approach promoted personalized medical practices: every patient classified within a subset associated with 100% survival subset was likely to survive. The non-reductionist method also revealed five inflammatory or disease-related stages (provisionally named ‘early inflammation, early immunocompetence, intermediary immuno-suppression, late immuno-suppression, or other’). Mortality data validated these labels: both ‘suppression’ subsets revealed 100% mortality, the ‘immunocompetence’ group exhibited 100% survival, while the remaining sets reported two-digit mortality percentages. While the ‘intermediary’ suppression expressed an impaired monocyte-related function, the ‘late’ suppression displayed renal-related dysfunctions, as indicated by high concentrations of urea and creatinine. Discussion The data-driven differentiation of five data groups may foster early and non-overlapping biomedical decision-making, both upon admission and throughout their hospitalization. This approach could evaluate therapies, at personalized level, earlier. To ascertain repeatability and investigate the dynamics of the ‘other’ group, additional studies are recommended.

Immunology↗

Autonomous Flow Electrochemistry for Accelerated Catalyst Discovery

Our objective is to develop an Autonomous Chemical Experimentation (ACE) platform that accelerates discovery of new catalytic transformations and other energy-relevant chemical reactions and processes. We intentionally designed ACE to be highly modular, both with respect to its rapid deployment to different chemistries and experimental workflows as well as incorporation of a wide range of different AI algorithms. In addition to the development of the core software architecture, initial efforts were made to incorporate Large Language Models to provide human-interpretable reasoning of the optimizer’s actions, and to develop a user-friendly graphical interface for experimental researchers. ACE was demonstrated using a flow electrocatalysis platform containing an inline FTIR spectrometer for real-time analysis and quantification of the reaction outcome. Human-in-the-loop experiments were performed in which a human researcher conducted an experiment using electrode potentials suggested by ACE, then fed the spectral data back to ACE for decision making. After confirming the successful function of the optimizer, efforts were next directed to automation of the hardware and performed full autonomy tests using three reactions: catalytic oxidation of formate, catalytic oxidation of cyclohexanol, and oxidation of hydroquinone. These studies confirm that ACE can close the loop between reaction execution, analysis, and optimization. They also reveal that more improved product detection methods will be essential for ACE to make well-informed decisions for reactions with low conversions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analysis as a Key Guiding Tool for Waste Carbon Utilization

Over a billion metric tons of waste and biomass are projected to be available in a future mature market in the United States. These resources represent an opportunity to decouple chemical and polymer production from conventional fossil fuel feedstocks, but such a broad solution space can also make for challenging decision-making. This talk will provide researchers with an introduction to key analysis techniques such as techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and material flow analysis: how they are conducted and how they can be used to benchmark the costs, environmental impacts, and circularity of new innovations as well as to identify opportunities for prioritization and optimization. Using a series of examples related to plastic recycling and chemical manufacturing, we will explore how analysis can guide where and how to leverage waste carbon in supply chains towards a future circular economy.

chemical↗

Applications of fuzzy logic and best-worst method for tritium sensor selection

Accurate assessment of tritium as a fuel source is critical in fusion reactions, necessitating effective sensor evaluation methods. This study investigates a multi-criteria decision-making framework for selecting tritium sensors, integrating fuzzy logic to enhance decision quality. Initial attempts at applying fuzzy logic were found to be too elementary and failed to capture the complexity of multi-criteria selection; this prompted a refined approach that incorporated expert insights and advanced ranking techniques for sensor evaluation. The research used a two-stage methodology. In the first stage, important criteria and sub-criteria for sensor performance were identified and defined. These criteria were then weighted and scored using a fuzzy best-worst method, drawing upon expert opinions to ensure relevance and validity. The second stage involved interpreting information about varying sensors to rank them based on their overall criteria scores, encouraging the selection of the most suitable options. The result of the study is a proposed method for effective sensor selection in fusion reactors, which in turn will significantly improve the reliability of tritium monitoring in fusion applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

INTEGRATION OF DATA ANALYTICS WITH SYSTEM HEALTH PROGRAMS

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry developed and regulatory programs. However, these programs have proven to be labor intensive and expensive. There is an opportunity to significantly enhance the collection, analysis, and use of this information to provide more cost-effective plant operation. Additionally, there is an acute industry need to leverage advanced technology to reduce costs and improve operational effectiveness. The goal of this paper is to provide effective and efficient analytical methods and tools to support risk-informed decisions for the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. This is accomplished by creating a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). Here we are supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component ageing management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where herein the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow. A challenge is that the structure of this workflow strongly depends on the decision that needs to be made, the type of data available, and the constraints that need to be considered. Current methods are designed to provide specific answers to specific problems; however, these methods might prove to be inadequate even when problem settings slightly change (e.g., different types of requirements, additional dependencies between system reliability and economics). We tackled this challenge by designing framework in a flexible and modular fashion such that the user can assemble and customize his/her own workflow that integrates SSC economic lifecycle models (e.g., maintenance and replacement costs), system reliability models, and optimization methods.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Topological Interpretability for Deep Learning

With the growing adoption of AI-based systems across everyday life, the need to understand their decision-making mechanisms is correspondingly increasing. The level at which we can trust the statistical inferences made from AI-based decision systems is an increasing concern, especially in high-risk systems such as criminal justice or medical diagnosis, where incorrect inferences may have tragic consequences. Despite their successes in providing solutions to problems involving real-world data, deep learning (DL) models cannot quantify the certainty of their predictions. These models are frequently quite confident, even when their solutions are incorrect. This work presents a method to infer prominent features in two DL classification models trained on clinical and non-clinical text by employing techniques from topological and geometric data analysis. We create a graph of a model's feature space and cluster the inputs into the graph's vertices by the similarity of features and prediction statistics. We then extract subgraphs demonstrating high-predictive accuracy for a given label. These subgraphs contain a wealth of information about features that the DL model has recognized as relevant to its decisions. We infer these features for a given label using a distance metric between probability measures, and demonstrate the stability of our method compared to the LIME and SHAP interpretability methods. This work establishes that we may gain insights into the decision mechanism of a DL model. This method allows us to ascertain if the model is making its decisions based on information germane to the problem or identifies extraneous patterns within the data.

Spannaus, Adam↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Downscaled Earth System Model Data for Resilient Energy System Planning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. In this presentation, we explore the output characteristics of the dataset and various validation analyses. We also present and discuss plans for the integration of this data into power system planning models using a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Navigating Uncertainty: Challenges in Visualizing Ensemble Data and Surrogate Models for Decision Systems

Uncertainty visualization plays a critical role in transforming ensemble simulation data into actionable insights by effectively communicating various dimensions of uncertainty within a system. The emergence of artificial intelligence-driven surrogate models trained on multirun ensemble data offers a transformative opportunity to replace computationally intensive simulations with fast estimates, enabling users to explore data spaces with unprecedented depth and interactivity. However, integrating ensemble data and surrogate models into decision-making workflows and tools introduces novel challenges for uncertainty visualization. These include reconciling and clearly communicating the unique uncertainties associated with ensembles and their surrogate model estimates, and leveraging these approximations to inform actionable decisions. This work explores these challenges in the context of high-dimensional data visualization, bridging discrete datasets with their continuous representations and addressing the complexities of systems that support iterative navigation between input and output spaces. We evaluate the role of uncertainty visualization in fostering intuitive, actionable interactions and identify critical hurdles in advancing this frontier of computational simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predicting runtime and resource utilization of jobs on integrated cloud and HPC systems

Recent advances in virtualization technologies used in cloud computing offer performance that closely approaches bare-metal levels. Combined with specialized instance types and high-speed networking services for cluster computing, cloud platforms have become a compelling option for high-performance computing (HPC). However, most current batch job schedulers in HPC systems are designed for homogeneous clusters and make decisions based on limited information about jobs and system status. Scientists typically submit computational jobs to these schedulers with a requested runtime that is often over- or under-estimated. More accurate runtime predictions can help schedulers make better decisions and reduce job turnaround times. Here, they can also support decisions about migrating jobs to the cloud to avoid long queue wait times in HPC systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗