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Results for “Design Methods Modeling and Validation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting large-scale pool fire dynamics using an unsteady flamelet- and large-eddy simulation-based model suite

A low-Mach, unstructured, large-eddy-simulation-based, unsteady flamelet approach with a generalized heat loss combustion methodology (including soot generation and consumption mechanisms) is deployed to support a large-scale, quiescent, 5-m JP-8 pool fire validation study. The quiescent pool fire validation study deploys solution sensitivity procedures, i.e., the effect of mesh and time step refinement on capturing key fire dynamics such as fingering and puffing, as mesh resolutions approach O(1) cm. A novel design-order, discrete-ordinate-method discretization methodology is established by use of an analytical thermal/participating media radiation solution on both low-order hexahedral and tetrahedral mesh topologies in addition to quadratic hexahedral elements. Here, the coupling between heat losses and the flamelet thermochemical state is achieved by augmenting the unsteady flamelet equation set with a heat loss source term. Soot and radiation source terms are determined using flamelet approaches for the full range of heat losses experienced in fire applications including radiative extinction. The proposed modeling and simulation paradigm are validated using pool surface radiative heat flux, maximum centerline temperature location, and puffing frequency data, all of which are predicted within 10% accuracy. Simulations demonstrate that under-resolved meshes predict an overly conservative radiative heat flux magnitude with improved comparisons as compared to a previously deployed hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes/eddy dissipation concept-based methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

PIP-II LLRF Master Oscillator and Precision Reference Line- Station Level Design and Testing

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab requires a highly stable RF Reference Line to maintain phase synchronization throughout the accelerator. Temperature-induced changes in the electrical length of long coaxial cables can introduce phase drift and measurement errors. The reference-line architecture mitigates these effects by phase averaging the forward and reflected RF signals, while a phase-locked loop anchors the system to the master oscillator. This work focuses on the characterization, validation, and mechanical integration of station-level RF assemblies using CAD modeling, vector network analyzer measurements, and spectrum analyzer testing. PID-controlled thermal plates will stabilize critical RF components and further reduce temperature-dependent phase and amplitude variations. These methods support repeatable, standardized designs that can be reliably integrated across the different reference-line stations.

Mosher, Alexander [U. Illinois, Chicago; Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2021

In silico trials predict that combination strategies for enhancing vesicular stomatitis oncolytic virus are determined by tumor aggressivity

Background Immunotherapies, driven by immune-mediated antitumorigenicity, offer the potential for significant improvements to the treatment of multiple cancer types. Identifying therapeutic strategies that bolster antitumor immunity while limiting immune suppression is critical to selecting treatment combinations and schedules that offer durable therapeutic benefits. Combination oncolytic virus (OV) therapy, wherein complementary OVs are administered in succession, offer such promise, yet their translation from preclinical studies to clinical implementation is a major challenge. Overcoming this obstacle requires answering fundamental questions about how to effectively design and tailor schedules to provide the most benefit to patients. Methods We developed a computational biology model of combined oncolytic vaccinia (an enhancer virus) and vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) calibrated to and validated against multiple data sources. We then optimized protocols in a cohort of heterogeneous virtual individuals by leveraging this model and our previously established in silico clinical trial platform. Results Enhancer multiplicity was shown to have little to no impact on the average response to therapy. However, the duration of the VSV injection lag was found to be determinant for survival outcomes. Importantly, through treatment individualization, we found that optimal combination schedules are closely linked to tumor aggressivity. We predicted that patients with aggressively growing tumors required a single enhancer followed by a VSV injection 1 day later, whereas a small subset of patients with the slowest growing tumors needed multiple enhancers followed by a longer VSV delay of 15 days, suggesting that intrinsic tumor growth rates could inform the segregation of patients into clinical trials and ultimately determine patient survival. These results were validated in entirely new cohorts of virtual individuals with aggressive or non-aggressive subtypes. Conclusions Based on our results, improved therapeutic schedules for combinations with enhancer OVs can be studied and implemented. Our results further underline the impact of interdisciplinary approaches to preclinical planning and the importance of computational approaches to drug discovery and development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

RAAW

High-fidelity wind turbine modeling advances necessitate model validation datasets of equally high fidelity. The Rotor Aerodynamics, Aeroelastics & Wake (RAAW) project was designed to address this need. This three-year project runs from October 2021 through October 2024 starting with a field data collection period followed by model validation activities. RAAW is a partnership between GE Renewable Energy and the United States Department of Energy (DOE) through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories. The field experiment is designed to make detailed measurements of the inflow, wind turbine response, and the resulting wake. The experimental dataset will be suitable for validating wind turbine models across the fidelity spectrum from actuator disk methods to blade-resolved codes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-based Reliability Evaluation Model for Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a hybrid machine learning method for the reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas systems (IPGS) under the uncertain component failure probability distributions. The Random Forest (RF) method is designed to select important features to solve the insufficient quantity of data and the curse of dimensionality problems. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm is developed to quantify the relationship between the uncertain parameters and reliability metrics. Moreover, a ten-fold cross-validation method is employed to further improve the accuracy of the regression model. Simulation results on three test systems show that the proposed method can achieve high accuracy for the reliability evaluation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

PIP-II LLRF Master Oscillator and Precision Reference Line - Station Level Design and Testing

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab requires a highly stable RF Reference Line to maintain phase syn- chronization throughout the accelerator. Temperature- induced changes in the electrical length of long coaxial cables can introduce phase drift and measurement errors. The reference-line architecture mitigates these effects by phase averaging the forward and reflected RF signals, while a phase-locked loop anchors the system to the mas- ter oscillator. This work focuses on the characterization, validation, and mechanical integration of station-level RF assemblies using CAD modeling, vector network analyzer measurements, and spectrum analyzer testing. PID-controlled thermal plates will stabilize critical RF components and further reduce temperature-dependent phase and amplitude variations. These methods sup- port repeatable, standardized designs that can be reliably integrated across the different reference-line stations.

Mosher, Alexander [U. Illinois, Chicago]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved Weld Residual Stress Modeling System in BlackBear

This report presents enhancements to the MOOSE-based BlackBear application aimed at improving its capability to simulate welding and other thermo-mechanical manufacturing processes. Two primary avenues of improvement are pursued. First, to enhance user accessibility, we introduce a centralized default block restriction mechanism that ensures coverage checks are performed within user-specified default blocks. This default setting is applied consistently to all block-describable objects, such as variables, kernels, and more. In addition, we develop a modular action for moving heat source simulations, which integrates path file parsing, subdomain modification, and heat source kernel enforcement into a single, streamlined configuration. Second, to improve solver robustness, we implement an alternative method for assigning initial conditions to the updated active domain during the simulation, thereby enhancing convergence behavior. To validate the framework, we design and conduct several benchmark simulations, including heat conduction with progressive material addition, linear elasticity with time-dependent material deposition, and viscoplasticity model with isotropic hardening under similar conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework through large-scale thermo-mechanical welding simulations in both two and three dimensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Feedback Compensator Design for Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop System for Medium-Voltage Grid-Connected Power Converters

Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) evaluation is a method in which the test subject is split into a physical part and a simulated part, and these parts are connected with interfaces to form a combined physical-numerical system. Power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) systems, where actual hardware is connected to a real-time model, can exhibit issues of instability, inaccuracy and errors when operating in a closed-loop. The challenges of generating a PHIL setup are that, first, because of the limited dynamic response of the different parts of the system, the test results might be inaccurate, and, second, because of the high frequency noise introduced by the sensors to the closed-loop system, it can be difficult to design a compensator for the real-time emulator response, while stabilizing the closed-loop system at the same time. In this paper, different parts of a PHIL system are characterized, and the feedback compensator system design is proposed for the stable operation of the closed-loop PHIL system. The issues as observed in a PHIL system without any compensator are demonstrated using experimental results, and the effectiveness of a first order phase lead compensator is validated.

compensator design↗
DOE OSTI2020

Koopman-Based Approach to Nonintrusive Reduced Order Modeling: Application to Aerodynamic Shape Optimization and Uncertainty Propagation

A methodology for nonintrusive projection-based nonlinear model reduction originally presented by Renganathan et al. is further extended here toward parametric systems with a focus on application to aerospace design. Specifically, the method is extended to address static systems with parametric geometry (that deforms the mesh) in addition to parametric freestream boundary conditions. The main idea is to first perform a transformation on the governing equations such that it is lifted to a higher-dimensional but linear underdetermined system. This enables one to extract the system matrices easily as compared to that of the original nonlinear system. The underdetermined system is closed with a set of model-dependent nonlinear constraints upon which the model reduction is finally performed. The methodology is validated on the subsonic and transonic inviscid flows past the NACA0012 and the RAE2822 airfoils with parametrized shapes. The utility of the approach is further demonstrated by applying it to two common problems in aerospace design, namely, derivative-free global optimization and parametric uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo sampling. Overall, the methodology is shown to achieve accuracy up to 5% and computational speedup of two to three orders of magnitude relative to the full order model. Comparison against another nonintrusive model reduction method revealed that the proposed approach is more robust, accurate, and retains the consistency between the state variables.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain of uncertainties? A comparison of uncertainty quantification metrics for chemical data sets

Abstract With the increasingly more important role of machine learning (ML) models in chemical research, the need for putting a level of confidence to the model predictions naturally arises. Several methods for obtaining uncertainty estimates have been proposed in recent years but consensus on the evaluation of these have yet to be established and different studies on uncertainties generally uses different metrics to evaluate them. We compare three of the most popular validation metrics (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, the negative log likelihood (NLL) and the miscalibration area) to the error-based calibration introduced by Levi et al. ( Sensors 2022 , 22 , 5540). Importantly, metrics such as the negative log likelihood (NLL) and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient bear little information in themselves. We therefore introduce reference values obtained through errors simulated directly from the uncertainty distribution. The different metrics target different properties and we show how to interpret them, but we generally find the best overall validation to be done based on the error-based calibration plot introduced by Levi et al. Finally, we illustrate the sensitivity of ranking-based methods (e.g. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient) towards test set design by using the same toy model ferent test sets and obtaining vastly different metrics (0.05 vs. 0.65).

Rasmussen, Maria H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

$\mathrm{CROPSR}$: an automated platform for complex genome-wide $\mathrm{CRISPR}$ g$\mathrm{RNA}$ design and validation

CRISPR/Cas9 technology has become an important tool to generate targeted, highly specific genome mutations. The technology has great potential for crop improvement, as crop genomes are tailored to optimize specific traits over generations of breeding. Many crops have highly complex and polyploid genomes, particularly those used for bioenergy or bioproducts. The majority of tools currently available for designing and evaluating gRNAs for CRISPR experiments were developed based on mammalian genomes that do not share the characteristics or design criteria for crop genomes. We have developed an open source tool for genome-wide design and evaluation of gRNA sequences for CRISPR experiments, CROPSR. The genome-wide approach provides a significant decrease in the time required to design a CRISPR experiment, including validation through PCR, at the expense of an overhead compute time required once per genome, at the first run. To better cater to the needs of crop geneticists, restrictions imposed by other packages on design and evaluation of gRNA sequences were lifted. A new machine learning model was developed to provide scores while avoiding situations in which the currently available tools sometimes failed to provide guides for repetitive, A/T-rich genomic regions. We show that our gRNA scoring model provides a significant increase in prediction accuracy over existing tools, even in non-crop genomes. CROPSR provides the scientific community with new methods and a new workflow for performing CRISPR/Cas9 knockout experiments. CROPSR reduces the challenges of working in crops, and helps speed gRNA sequence design, evaluation and validation. We hope that the new software will accelerate discovery and reduce the number of failed experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Cyber-attack Detection in Photovoltaic Farms

Here, to address the cyber-physical security in PV farms, a hybrid cyber-attack detection is proposed in this manuscript. To secure PV farms, the proposed method integrates model-based and data-driven methods by fusing the detection score at the device and system levels. First, a model-based cyber-attack detection method is developed for each PV inverter. A residual between the estimation of the Kalman filter and measurement is calculated. By leveraging the calculated residual from all inverters, a squared Mahalanobis distance is developed for device detection score generation. At the system level, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed to detect cyber-attack using the waveform data at the point of common coupling (PCC) in PV farms. To improve the CNN detection accuracy, a set of well-designed features are extracted from the raw waveform data. Finally, a weighted detection score fusion method is proposed to combine device and system detection scores by using their complementary strength. The feasibility and robustness of the proposed method are validated by testing cases and a comparative experiment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation and Verification for INL Modelica-based TEDS models Via Experimental Results

This report provides an overview on the verification and validation (V&V) of the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) model developed in the Modelica process modeling ecosystem using experimental data. Model development has led to the creation of a dynamic process model of the experimental TEDS facility housed within the Energy Systems Laboratory (ESL) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The model was then used during the preconstruction phase of the experimental effort to inform experimental design (e.g., insulation requirements, bypass line placement, expected performance of components) and to test innovative control schemes prior to the initial operation. The TEDS model developed in Modelica includes the primary components of the TEDS experimental unit: a 200kW Chromalox heater; a single-tank packed-bed thermal energy storage system filled with 0.125-inch alumina (Al2O3) beads; an ethylene-glycol-to-Therminol-66 heat exchanger; system piping; five control valves; and all associated temperature, pressure, and volumetric flow sensors. Using the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) V&V methodologies, considered the gold standard in the engineering field, the model was verified using a combination of static analysis, spatial convergence, and regression tests. Then using dynamic time warping (DTW) initial runs to validate and tune the TEDS model versus the experiment were conducted. This tuning method was accomplished using the INL Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software package. Tuning is required to account for physical phenomena that are less understood within the empirical heat transfer correlations. Through the commencement of this work, a systems-level model of TEDS with associated control systems, sensors, piping diameters, and component capabilities has been created. This model was utilized in the pre-experimental phase to inform system design, insulation thicknesses, and potential control schemes to operate the system effectively and safely. Then, initial experimental startup and operational data were used to demonstrate the validation and tuning methodology. This process demonstrates the classical two-step approach of a model informing experimental design followed by the experiment validation and tuning the model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and Scoping Tests on Alloy 617 Using Notched Specimen Geometry to Validate Methods for Multiaxial Stress Relaxation

In FY 2022, a development effort was initiated at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to examine the multiaxial stress-relaxation behavior and multiaxial stress-state effect on the creep-fatigue (CF) performance for Alloy 617 at elevated temperatures. This effort supported the development of the design rules in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section III, Division 5. In this work, two types of the notch specimen geometries were designed. An inelastic constitutive model was used to investigate the stress triaxiality and elastic follow-up effects on the notch specimens under CF deformation in the finite element (FE) simulations. The numerical study demonstrated that the stress triaxiality and elastic follow-up caused by the notches both play significant roles in the stress-relaxation behavior. In addition, Alloy 617 CF experiments were designed, and the testing on the notch specimens is ongoing. CF test failure data will be generated on the specimens with notches under various conditions in FY 2023, and the results will be used to validate methods for accounting for the multiaxial stress relaxation effect in the design code.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

An adaptive adversarial domain adaptation approach for corn yield prediction

Recently, statistical machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored for corn yield prediction. Though successful, machine learning models generated within a specific spatial domain often lose their validity when directly applied to new regions. To address this issue, we designed an unsupervised adaptive domain adversarial neural network (ADANN). Specifically, through domain adversarial training, the ADANN model reduced the impact of domain shift by projecting data from different domains into the same subspace. Also, the ADANN model was designed to be trained in an adaptive way, which guaranteed the model can learn the domain-invariant features and perform accurate yield prediction simultaneously. Informative variables including time-series vegetation indices and sequential weather observations were first collected from multiple data sources and aggregated to the county level. Then, we trained the ADANN model with the extracted features and corresponding reported county-level corn yield from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Finally, the trained model was evaluated in four testing years 2016–2019. The U.S. corn belt was used as the study area and counties under study were grouped into two diverse ecological regions. Overall, the experimental results showed that the developed ADANN model had better performance than three other state-of-the-art machine learning models in both local experiments (train and test in the same region) and transfer experiments (train and test in different regions). As the first study using adversarial learning for crop yield prediction, this research demonstrates a novel solution for improving model transferability on crop yield prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pervaporative Dehydration of 2,3-Butanediol by Dense Poly(vinylidene fluoride) Hollow Fiber Membranes: Parameter Estimation, Process Design, and Technoeconomic Evaluation under Uncertainty

Pervaporation, combined with other separation processes, can effectively remove water from fermentation product streams, making it highly suitable for purifying alcohols like 2,3-butanediol (BDO). In this study, a dense poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) hollow fiber membrane module prototype was fabricated for BDO dehydration, achieving >0.2 LMH total flux and >95% BDO rejection. With a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, Bayesian inference was used to quantify the uncertainty of the permeance parameters. A membrane cascade model was developed to scale up a process that purifies a preconcentrated BDO feed (70 wt %) to high purity (90 wt %). Through propagation of the uncertainty of the parameters and sensitivity analyses of the process variables, a cascade design was recommended. Despite data and model limitations, the framework enabled a reliable system analysis and economic evaluation, validated through tight confidence intervals in key process metrics, establishing the foundation for future applications of Bayesian methods in membrane-based processes.

Animal feed↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗