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DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Modeling of a Kaplan Hydroturbine Using Optimal Parametric Tuning and Real Plant Operational Data

To address grid variability caused by renewable energy integration and to maintain grid reliability and resilience, hydropower must quickly adjust its power generation over short time periods. This changing energy generation landscape requires advance technology integration and adaptive parameter optimization for hydropower systems via digital twin effort. However, this is difficult owing to the lack of characterization and modeling for the nonlinear nature of hydroturbines. To solve this issue, this paper first formulates a six-coefficient Kaplan hydroturbine model and then proposes a parametric optimization tuning framework based on the Nelder–Mead algorithm for adaptive dynamic learning of the six-coefficients so as to build models that describe the turbine. To assess the performance of the proposed optimal parametric tuning technique, operational data from a real-world Kaplan hydroturbine unit are collected and used to model the relationship between the gate opening and the generated power production. The findings show that the proposed technique can effectively and adaptively learn the unknown dynamics of the Kaplan hydroturbine while optimally tune the unknown coefficients to match the generated power output from the real hydroturbine unit with an inaccuracy of less than 5%. The method can be used to provides optimal tuning of parameters critical for controller design, operational optimization and daily maintenance for hydroturbines in general.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Assessment of Non-Powered Dam Hydropower Development Opportunities in the United States

Retrofitting non-powered dams (NPDs) to add hydropower offers multiple benefits over traditional, new hydropower development. Since much of the civil works infrastructure already exists, many retrofits require minimal new construction and can leverage existing water conveyances and discharge for generation. Although NPDs vary considerably in terms of their defining characteristics, identifying similarities helps support targeted investment and find opportunities to develop solutions for common challenges. With the publication of NPD-related data in 2022 (Hansen et al. 2022b), the US Department of Energy and relevant stakeholders are equipped with key information across roughly 89,000 US NPDs. These data represent the best-available information to date and extend beyond previous assessments of potential power capacity by describing design, operational, socioeconomic, environmental aspects of NPDs (Hadjerioua et al. 2012). To capitalize on these efforts to improve breadth and depth of NPD data access, this study uses a data-driven approach to assess NPD hydropower development opportunities in the United States. To help describe project feasibility drivers for NPDs, recent NPD retrofits were reviewed to examine variability with respect to a variety of characteristics. Based on the assessment of recent retrofits and data availability, several attributes were selected to characterize the remaining NPD population: (1) owner type, (2) 30% exceedance flow (a common design flow that describes the flow that is exceeded by 30% of the flow in the record), (3) hydraulic head, and (4) maximum reservoir storage. These four characteristics were used as inputs to a statistical clustering analysis (a common technique for grouping individuals of a population based on similarities or how closely associated individuals are to one another) of a set of 2,709 NPDs with at least 100 kW potential capacity and recently retrofit dams with available data. With the large dataset of NPDs, the clusters help describe how the population breaks down into different types (i.e., how many types of dams there are and what portion of the population belongs to each cluster).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

This paper examines the impacts of design, operational, and end-of-life (EOL) waste pathways’ parameters on material circularity in silicon solar photovoltaic (PV) modules. Dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) quantifies time-series material flows through systems’ life cycle stages to identify hotspots of waste generation, estimate resource needs in the future, and guide sustainable material management. We introduce a DMFA framework based on U.S. electricity demand for the period 2000-2100 to assess stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (i.e., solar glass and aluminum frames). We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacials, large-format-high power modules). Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize material waste.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utilization of ACE nuclear data file toolkit ACEtk to calculate relative sensitivity coefficients of point-kinetics parameters

Sensitivity and uncertainty methods are quintessential for nuclear criticality safety and experiment design. This type of analysis relies on calculations of sensitivity coefficients; sensitivity coefficients of the effective neutron multiplication factor with respect to some nuclear data are predominantly calculated and used. As a part of the Laboratory Directed Research & Development project EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data) at Los Alamos National Laboratory, sensitivity coefficients of many radiation detector measurement responses with respect to nuclear data were investigated. Specifically, this paper outlines a method to calculate point-kinetics parameters relative sensitivity coefficients with respect to nuclear data. Point-kinetics parameters such as the prompt neutron decay constant, effective delayed neutron fraction, and neutron generation time are especially important to experimenters and reactor operators designing systems with dynamic neutron populations. This method couples capabilities of the ACE (A Compact ENDF) nuclear data file toolkit, ACEtk, with the ability to load cross sections into the radiation transport code Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP). In conclusion, key aspects of optimizing this method for a particular application and sensitivity profiles of the Jezebel criticality experiment are examined and discussed.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cadillac CT6 Super Cruise On-road Data

This dataset encompasses about 60 individual drives of a 2019 Cadillac CT6 with Super Cruise in its relevant operational domain covering more than 1,000 miles. Adhering to the limited operational design domain of the investigated version of the Supercruise system, the majority of the data was collected during highway driving. Information collected includes vehicle CAN data as well as Lidar and camera data from a vehicle mounted sensor array. Vehicle CAN data and information on traffic surrounding the Ego-vehicle derived from the sensor array are postprocessed and merged to provide one combined CVS data file per drive. ![cadillac-ct6 image](ct6.png)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Burnup in Pebble Bed Reactors

Modeling and simulation of fuel burnup plays important roles in reactor design, operation, safety, and security as well as nuclear material control and accounting (MC&A) [1]. This task is uniquely challenging for pebble bed reactors (PBR) because the pebbles are continuously added and recycled into the reactor core, and their paths through the core are random. To address this problem, we present two simulation models in this paper. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) developed a simple lattice model of a PBR in Serpent software to generate used pebble isotopic concentrations. The benefit of using Serpent software in this specific application is that it helps streamline the data generation process without having to use too many independent software codes in combination to achieve a simple task. For example, transport, burnup and zero power decay can be implemented in a single pass. Three-dimensional core models were developed using Serpent to simulate the burnup process of 5 subject pebbles starting from fresh till they reach nearly target burnup, with each pebble placed in one of the five artificially designated radial channels to capture the changing neutron spectra along the core radius. Equilibrium isotopic concentrations were assumed in all other pebbles in the core. To provide a verification for the Serpent isotope transmutation and decay results, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed simple SCALE/ORIGEN calculations using the average neutron spectra calculated by Serpent for each of the 5 pebbles. The 252-group neutron spectra from Serpent were then used by ORIGEN to produce the one-group library for depletion and decay calculations. The isotopic concentrations of a few nuclides of interest and neutron and gamma source terms produced from the ORIGEN calculations were compared with the ones from the Serpent calculations. The model simulated in this work was based on the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)-400 design because many data needed for the simulation such as core power profiles, fuel and reflector temperatures, and equilibrium core composition are publicly available. In this paper, we will compare the results between these two approaches and benchmark the results against a set of well-established simulation results for PBMR-400.

Dim, Odera↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Burnup in Pebble Bed Reactors

Modeling and simulation of fuel burnup plays important roles in reactor design, operation, safety, and security as well as nuclear material control and accounting (MC&A) [1]. This task is uniquely challenging for pebble bed reactors (PBR) because the pebbles are continuously added and recycled into the reactor core, and their paths through the core are random. To address this problem, we present two simulation models in this paper. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) developed a simple lattice model of a PBR in Serpent software to generate used pebble isotopic concentrations. The benefit of using Serpent software in this specific application is that it helps streamline the data generation process without having to use too many independent software codes in combination to achieve a simple task. For example, transport, burnup and zero power decay can be implemented in a single pass. Three-dimensional core models were developed using Serpent to simulate the burnup process of five subject pebbles starting from fresh till they reach nearly target burnup, with each pebble placed in one of the five artificially designated radial channels to capture the changing neutron spectra along the core radius. Equilibrium isotopic concentrations were assumed in all other pebbles in the core. To provide a verification for the Serpent isotope transmutation and decay results, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed simple SCALE/ORIGEN calculations using the average neutron spectra calculated by Serpent for each of the five pebbles. The 252-group neutron spectra from Serpent were then used by ORIGEN to produce the one-group library for depletion and decay calculations. The isotopic concentrations of a few nuclides of interest and neutron and gamma source terms produced from the ORIGEN calculations were compared with the ones from the Serpent calculations. The model simulated in this work was based on the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)-400 design because many data needed for the simulation such as core power profiles, fuel and reflector temperatures, and equilibrium core composition are publicly available. In this paper, we will compare the results between these two approaches and benchmark the results against a set of well-established simulation results for PBMR-400.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Production, fuel properties and combustion testing of an iso-olefins blendstock for modern vehicles

With the increasing pressure to decarbonize the transportation sector, exploring strategies that can reduce emissions from light-duty vehicles (LDV) has become critical. Bioblendstocks that allow for higher engine efficiency and fuel economy could complement vehicle electrification and help reach carbon neutrality by 2050. In this context, the potential of a mixture of iso-olefins as a bioblendstock was investigated for multimode boosted spark-ignition (SI)/advanced compression ignition (ACI) engine operation designed to achieve higher overall vehicle fuel economy. By establishing the relationship between the molecular structure of iso-olefins and research octane number (RON), octane sensitivity (S) (i.e., the difference between RON and motor octane number [MON]), and phi-sensitivity a dimethyl-hexenes rich olefins mixture (DMHROM) was identified as a preferred blendstock for SI/ACI combustion engines. Here, a pathway for DMHROM production from biomass-derived ethanol was developed and scaled up. More than 1 gallon of DMHROM blendstock was produced for fuel properties assessment including engine testing. Measurements in a Cooperative Fuel Research Engine showed that the DMHROM blendstock possesses a RON of 94 and S of 13.5, and blends synergistically. Rapid compression machine tests coupled with single-cylinder gasoline direct injection engine measurements demonstrated the 20 vol.% DMHROM blend has higher phi-sensitivity than an olefin-free gasoline base fuel and a typical California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) gasoline fuel. These results demonstrate the potential of DMHROM for improving gasoline fuel performance and quality for operation under ACI conditions. The effectiveness of the aftertreatment system in mitigating emissions was verified and showed that the pure DMHROM blendstock and 20 vol.% blend would not increase non-methane organic gases, NO x , and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. The DMHROM blendstock was found to slightly decrease sooting tendency when added to a gasoline-base fuel (i.e., ~6% reduction at 20 vol.% blending level). Oxidation stability and lubricant compatibility were both confirmed for the 20 vol.% blend. Overall, these results demonstrate that dimethyl-hexenes have potential for improving engine efficiency and fuel economy while meeting emissions regulations and ASTM specifications for gasoline fuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning identification of the variability of mean velocity and turbulence intensity for wakes generated by onshore wind turbines: Cluster analysis of wind LiDAR measurements

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of isolated wakes generated by wind turbines installed at an onshore wind farm are leveraged to characterize the variability of the wake mean velocity and turbulence intensity during typical operations, which encompass a breadth of atmospheric stability regimes and rotor thrust coefficients. The LiDAR measurements are clustered through the k-means algorithm, which enables identifying the most representative realizations of wind turbine wakes while avoiding the imposition of thresholds for the various wind and turbine parameters. Considering the large number of LiDAR samples collected to probe the wake velocity field, the dimensionality of the experimental dataset is reduced by projecting the LiDAR data on an intelligently truncated basis obtained with the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The coefficients of only five physics-informed POD modes are then injected in the k-means algorithm for clustering the LiDAR dataset. The analysis of the clustered LiDAR data and the associated supervisory control and data acquisition and meteorological data enables the study of the variability of the wake velocity deficit, wake extent, and wake-added turbulence intensity for different thrust coefficients of the turbine rotor and regimes of atmospheric stability. Furthermore, the cluster analysis of the LiDAR data allows for the identification of systematic off-design operations with a certain yaw misalignment of the turbine rotor with the mean wind direction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

60 years of science in ICF: from conception to scientific breakeven on the National Ignition Facility

The recent achievements of a burning plasma, fusion ignition, and scientific energy gain with deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) represents a major milestone in the development of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and all of fusion research. In these experiments, fuel pressures well in excess of hundreds of GBars were achieved in the compressed fuel, and robust alpha heating of the fuel, far in excess of the energy provided by the implosion, were demonstrated for the first time. These achievements occurred 60 years after the inception of ICF and the first laser demonstration, and were made possible by more than five decades of research at laser facilities around the world. Advances in laser technology both in wavelength and precision, motivated by improved understanding of laser-plasma interaction physics and the demands of targets; improvements in target fabrication inspired by the need to control and minimize hydrodynamic instabilities in the implosion; and multi-dimensional simulations and diagnostics have been critical to this achievement. This paper will summarize the scientific and technical advances, the surprises, and the challenges that had to be overcome to achieve these goals.

fusion↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-scale dynamic modeling and validation of radial flow fixed bed contactors for post-combustion CO 2 capture using bench scale and pilot plant data

Here, in this work, a multi-scale model of a radial flow fixed bed contactor packed with a carbon sorbent is developed and validated with laboratory-scale and pilot plant scale dynamic data. For the lab scale system, the model results were compared with low, medium and high gas and sweep flowrates, yielding root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.80, 0.63, 0.96 CO 2 mol%, respectively, for the outlet CO 2 concentration profile considering the entire A-D cycle. For the bed outer temperature profile, maximum RMSE was found to be 5.5 °C considering all flowrates and entire A-D cycles. An experimental campaign was developed and applied to a pilot plant at Technology Center Mongstad (TCM), Norway. Approaches were developed for pre-processing of data including consideration of the effect of gas mixing, measurement delay, and determination of cyclic steady-state conditions. Considering profiles during A-D cycles for all test runs, it was found that the maximum RMSE for pressure drop, temperature for the outer section of the bed, temperature for the middle section of the bed, and outlet CO 2 concentration profile remained less than 1.5 mbar, 3.5 °C, 2.8 °C, and 1.3 CO 2 mol%, respectively. The validated model was used to perform sensitivity studies on several key design operating variables for the adsorption-desorption cycle. It was found that the flow rate and concentration of flue gas have dominant nonlinear effects on the breakthrough time while the desorption time was strongly affected by the sweep gas flowrate for the specific sorbent being evaluated in this study.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design, Build, and Initial Testing of a Portable Methane Measurement Platform

The quantification of methane concentrations in air is essential for the quantification of methane emissions, which in turn is necessary to determine absolute emissions and the efficacy of emission mitigation strategies. These are essential if countries are to meet climate goals. Large-scale deployment of methane analyzers across millions of emission sites is prohibitively expensive, and lower-cost instrumentation has been recently developed as an alternative. Currently, it is unclear how cheaper instrumentation will affect measurement resolution or accuracy. To test this, the Wireless Autonomous Transportable Methane Emission Reporting System (WATCH 4 ERS) has been developed, comprising four commercially available sensing technologies: metal oxide (MOx,), Non-dispersion Infrared (NDIR), integrated infrared (INIR), and tunable diode laser absorption spectrometer (TDLAS). WATCHERS is the accumulated knowledge of several long-term methane measurement projects at Colorado State University’s Methane Emission Technology Evaluation Center (METEC), and this study describes the integration of these sensors into a single unit and reports initial instrument response to calibration procedures and controlled release experiments. Specifically, this paper aims to describe the development of the WATCH 4 ERS unit, report initial sensor responses, and describe future research goals. Meanwhile, future work will use data gathered by multiple WATCH 4 ERS units to 1. better understand the cost–benefit balance of methane sensors, and 2. identify how decreasing instrumentation costs could increase deployment coverage and therefore inform large-scale methane monitoring strategies. Both calibration and response experiments indicate the INIR has little practical use for measuring methane concentrations less than 500 ppm. The MOx sensor is shown to have a logarithmic response to methane concentration change between background and 600 ppm but it is strongly suggested that passively sampling MOx sensors cannot respond fast enough to report concentrations that change in a sub-minute time frame. The NDIR sensor reported a linear change to methane concentration between background and 600 ppm, although there was a noticeable lag in reporting changing concentration, especially at higher values, and individual peaks could be observed throughout the experiment even when the plumes were released 5 s apart. The TDLAS sensor reported all changes in concentration but remains prohibitively expensive. Our findings suggest that each sensor technology could be optimized by either operational design or deployment location to quantify methane emissions. The WATCH4ERS units will be deployed in real-world environments to investigate the utility of each in the future.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility

It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Minimum reflux calculation for multicomponent distillation in multi‐feed, multi‐product columns: Mathematical model

Abstract Multi‐feed, multi‐product distillation columns are ubiquitous in multicomponent distillation systems. The minimum reflux ratio of a distillation column is directly related to its energy consumption and capital cost. Thus, it is a key parameter for distillation systems design, operation, and comparison. In this series, we present the first accurate shortcut based algorithmic method to determine the minimum reflux condition for any general multi‐feed, multi‐product (MFMP) distillation column separating any ideal multicomponent mixture. The classic McCabe‐Thiele or Underwood method is a special case of this general approach. Compared with existing techniques, this method does not involve any rigorous tray‐by‐tray calculation, nor does it require guessing of key components. In this first part of the series, we present the mathematical model for a general MFMP column, derive constraints for feasible separation and minimum reflux condition, discuss their geometric interpretations, and present an illustrative example to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗