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A new 240 Pu PFNS evaluation was recently undertaken at LANL as a strategic priority. It truly is an NCSP end-to-end product. It factors in a new differential experiment funded by NCSP, builds on theoretical work coming out of a previous NCSP nuclear data evaluation milestone and was validated with an NCERC experiment that was recently evaluated as an integral benchmark with NCSP funds.
Stably stratified turbulence (SST), a model that is representative of the turbulence found in the oceans and atmosphere, is strongly affected by fine balances between forces and becomes more anisotropic in time for decaying scenarios. Moreover, there is a limited understanding of the physical phenomena described by some of the terms in the Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) equations—used to numerically simulate approximate solutions for such turbulent flows. Rather than attempting to model each term in URANS separately, it is attractive to explore the capability of machine learning (ML) to model groups of terms, i.e. to directly model the force balances. We develop deep time-series ML for closure modeling of the URANS equations applied to SST. We consider decaying SST which are homogeneous and stably stratified by a uniform density gradient, enabling dimensionality reduction. We consider two time-series ML models: long short-term memory and neural ordinary differential equation. Both models perform accurately and are numerically stable in a posteriori (online) tests. Furthermore, we explore the data requirements of the time-series ML models by extracting physically relevant timescales of the complex system. We find that the ratio of the timescales of the minimum information required by the ML models to accurately capture the dynamics of the SST corresponds to the Reynolds number of the flow. The current framework provides the backbone to explore the capability of such models to capture the dynamics of high-dimensional complex dynamical system like SST flows.
This study supports the mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), which aims to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings and reduce their total residential expenditures. Specifically, we examine how projected future climate conditions may affect residential building energy performance by integrating future weather data into the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT). Since WAP evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retrofit measures over lifespans of up to 30 years, accounting for evolving climate conditions is increasingly important. To reflect future household energy demands, this study replaces historically based Typical Meteorological Year (TMY3) weather inputs with Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) datasets derived from global climate model (GCM) projections. A simulation-based framework was established to enable NEAT analysis under future weather conditions. This workflow involves converting EPW-format weather files into JSON inputs compatible with NEAT and generating degree-hour metrics needed for load calculations. The fTMY dataset used in this study was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory through downscaling of six GCMs under different emission scenarios and covers the period from 2020 to 2100. In contrast, the TMY3 dataset is based on historical weather data from 1961 to 1990. Simulations were conducted for benchmark single-family prototype buildings across ASHRAE climate zones 1–7, which cover all regions of the U.S. except the subarctic Zone 8 in northern Alaska, evaluating both heating and cooling loads under TMY3 and fTMY conditions. Four foundation types were tested, while heating systems were standardized, as NEAT does not differentiate thermal energy load by HVAC system type in its load calculations. Results show that fTMY weather input consistently yield lower heating loads and higher cooling loads across most locations, aligning with expected climate warming trends. Notably, colder regions such as zones 6A, 6B, and 7 experience marked reductions in heating load, while warmer and transitional zones, such as 2A (Lufkin, TX) and 3C (San Francisco, CA), have substantial increases in cooling loads. Although this study does not directly assess the performance of retrofit measures under future climate conditions, it provides a critical foundation for doing so. By quantifying shifts in baseline (i.e., pre-retrofit case) energy loads between historical and future weather files, the study highlights the importance of integrating climate-responsive data into audit tools. These findings will inform future efforts to evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of weatherization measures under changing climate conditions.
The existing fleet of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are an important asset in the nation’s portfolio of electrical generating resources. Their continued safe and reliable operation are critical to providing a large source of carbon-free electricity to power the nation’s economy. The United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program develops the scientific bases, methods, and tools, for the continued safe and economical operation of the nation's commercial NPPs. The Plant Modernization Pathway within LWRS Program focuses on providing guidance to industry on the full-scale implementation of modernization solutions for NPPs that significantly reduce the technical and financial risks associated with modernization. This research is focused on helping the nuclear industry understand how to digitize and digitalize their NPPs so that they can design their modernization solutions to be scalable, sustainable, and integrated both laterally and horizontally within their organization. That is, this research creates a digital transformation in NPPs by reshaping cultural mindsets and by identifying business efficiencies. In partnership with industry, and using four previously established guiding principles for digitalization, this research supported NPP modernization through assessing readiness for digitalization as a means to achieve integrated operations for nuclear. Specifically, this research created an assessment to review an entire organization’s work processes to gather information about the digitalization health of the plant. The assessment tools were administered to plant employees, and the results were used to develop a digitalization plan. The survey assessment identified the optimal candidate processes that would most benefit from a digitalization initiative which were revealed through analytical frameworks. One analysis calculated mean digitalization health indicator scores for all endorsed activities which allowed the researchers to rank and color code the results for easy identification. Individual health indicator scores are also provided, should our industry partner wish to understand these findings according to their own organizational priorities, business considerations and desired end-state. The results were also analyzed from the perspective that organizations are comprised of different types of innovators (e.g., generators, optimizers, conceptualizers, and implementers), which differentially affects the organization’s ability to comprehend and adapt to change (i.e., opportunities to innovate). Understanding the relative composition of innovator types at an NPP allows them to gather insights into the strengths and weaknesses they have in innovating how work is performed. For the utility that partnered with this research team, the results showed that implementers make up the largest portion of respondents and conceptualizers the smallest portion. Knowing the proportion of innovator types gave this organization insights on how they can effectively implement their innovation solutions. Additionally, the results were analyzed from a technical, economic, and risk perspective to identify and quantify work reduction opportunities (WROs). Recognizing that not all cost-saving opportunities are the same, a Technical, Economic and Risk Assessment (TERA) was performed to evaluate WROs to identify areas of greatest potential and lowest risk. The key results from TERA included a digitalization opportunity score for each activity, and a calculation of potential cost savings. These two outputs formed the bases for calculating a priority index and rank for the activities/processes assessed. From the prioritization calculations, TERA can then help the utility 1) decide what digitalization priorities to invest money in implementing and then 2) calculates how much should be invested in the digitalization initiatives selected to achieve cost savings and/or an acceptable return on investment. Last, onsite interviews revealed several inefficiencies in the standard work processes that occur cross-departmentally that are due to the absence of digitized and digitalized processes. Examples of these include time spent scanning paper documents and then uploading the documents electronically, obtaining signatures, and searching for desired information. This represents a digital but not digitalized process. Over 15 opportunities to improve work processes were identified through this multi-method digitalization assessment. The various analytical assessments used (e.g., TERA, digitalization health indicator scores), as well as discussions with the utility partner, corroborated that all the opportunities identified had a strong potential to make work processes more efficient and to improve overall performance of the NPP.
Nuclear data at intermediate energies (from 1 to 100s of keV) are evaluated based on scarce differential data and theory unable to capture physics’ expected structure. There is also a lack of integral data. This is a known deficiency and is challenging to address. Calculated effective multiplication factor, k eff , values for intermediate energy experiments are ~25× further from experiment than for fast energies and are often well outside the experimental uncertainties. The goal of the PARADIGM (PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements) project is to significantly re duce the uncertainties of intermediate energy nuclear data for 239 Pu. To this end, PARADIGM simultaneously optimizes experiments at both the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) and National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The combined set of data will inform new intermediate-energy nuclear data. By execution of differential and integral experiments, establishment of new theory, and undertaking nuclear data evaluation in parallel, the timeline to deliver improved nuclear data to users will be reduced significantly that is to three years. For the PARADIGM project, it was decided to optimize an integral experiment for two neutron energy ranges, within the full intermediate energy range. The low energy range goes from 1 to 30 keV, while the higher energy range goes from 30 to 600 keV. This work focuses on nuclear data sensitivities and uncertainties for 239 Pu fission for existing experiments in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). When designing new experiments, it is important to understand what benchmarks currently exist. For a more traditional experiment design (in which a specific application model(s) exists), comparisons would be made between the application model(s) and existing benchmarks. For PARADIGM, there is no specific application model, but instead the specific nuclear data reaction and energy ranges of interest can be explored for existing benchmarks.
Special nuclear material in sub-critical and critical configurations measured in integral experiments are important for validation and adjustment of nuclear data. Many different evaluations of nuclear data exist, and these different evaluations can provide different values for individual cross sections that vary due to the uncertainties in differential experiments or lack of such data. For integral experiments, differences in these individual cross sections can have compensating errors, which lead to the same answer. One example of this is the Jezebel critical assembly, where k eff of the system is correctly computed by both ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3, despite having substantially different underlying evaluated values for specific reactions (such as elastic and inelastic cross sections). To reduce compensating errors in nuclear data, the Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data (EUCLID) project has utilized machine learning to design a set of sub-critical and critical experiments. These experiments include slab- and cube-like configurations of 239 Pu in the form of the ZPPR plates. Six different responses were measured on a total of thirteen different configurations. One of these responses, the neutron leakage spectrum, was measured using an EJ301D detector. Finally, the results of the neutron leakage spectra show good agreement (within 1–2 σ ) with the expected spectrum from simulations and will be used in the subsequent nuclear data adjustment done by the EUCLID team.
This work describes a blueprint for a process that accelerates progress in science by quantitatively answering the following question: What is the optimal combination of fundamental-science and application-driven experiments to maximally reduce pertinent data uncertainties? Answering this question entails solving a high-dimensional and complex optimization problem that is best solved with advanced statistic techniques often classified as machine learning. We apply this process within the framework of nuclear data with the aim to select an experiment combination that will reduce uncertainties in 239 Pu nuclear data for neutron energies between 1 and 600 keV. In this field, fundamental-physics driven data, called differential, look at one nuclear physics observable at a time. They are contrasted to application-driven, integral, data where one or few resulting values inform a broad set of nuclear data across several nuclides and energies. The candidates for integral experiments are criticality measurements that were refined by a genetic algorithm to be maximally sensitive to 239 Pu fission cross sections in the desired energy range. Twenty-three candidate differential experiments were investigated and span multiple nuclear physics observables (e.g., total, capture cross sections) for isotopes appearing in the integral experiments. The optimal combination among these candidate experiments was investigated via generalized least squares fitting, augmented with Gaussian processes to ameliorate statistical irregularities in data, and the D-optimality criterion. The latter evaluates for each pair of candidates the joint reduction in uncertainties of all 12200 nuclear data appearing in the integral experiments compared to the knowledge we have from 168 past experiments, theory, and nuclear data. We chose as differential measurements those that investigate 63 Cu and 239 Pu total cross sections, based on D-optimality rank and feasibility constraints. Two integral (criticality) experiments were selected: An experiment with Al 2 O 3 and graphite interleaved with Pu and a thick Cu reflector explores 1–30 keV, while we target the 30–600 keV range with an experiment that swaps boron in place of graphite with a different geometry.
he project PARADIGM (PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements) answers this question by selecting via machine learning (ML) an optimal combination of differential and integral experiments to reduce 239 Pu nuclear data uncertainties from 1-600 keV by 50%..
ABSTRACT Nonparasitic, nonmigratory Western Brook Lamprey (WBL; Lampetra ayresii ), and parasitic, anadromous Western River Lamprey (WRL; L. ayresii ) are sympatric lampreys that likely represent different life history variations of a single species. Novel genetic tools are critical for differentiating WBL and WRL, whose larvae preclude morphological identification (ID) and will enable comprehensive assessment of imperiled native lampreys of the Northeastern Pacific (including WBL, WRL, and Pacific Lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus ). We developed 47 candidate single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers using whole genome resequencing of WBL ( N = 24) and WRL ( N = 15) from Ksi Ts'oohl Ts'ap Creek (Nass River, British Columbia, Canada) which are likely ecotypes distinguished by few divergent SNPs across multiple chromosomes. We used five novel candidate SNPs to perform genetic ID of WBL and WRL ecotypes in collections of mixed native lampreys from lower Columbia River tributaries ( N = 1474), Ksi Ts'oohl Ts'ap Creek ( N = 352), and ocean phase WRL from the Georgia Basin (Salish Sea, British Columbia, Canada; N = 91). Two previously published SNPs were used to ID genera, Entosphenus versus Lampetra . Morphological ID utilized photographs collected from a subset of genotyped lampreys, and high concordance was demonstrated between ID methods for genera (99%) and Lampetra ecotypes (> 98%). We characterized spatial and temporal composition of lamprey genera and ecotypes surveyed across NE Pacific tributaries under the expectation these compositions would be similar across nearby sites and across years at the same site. Proportions of lamprey genera were highly variable within regions and across years; however, Lampetra ecotypic proportions were spatially and temporally stable. WRL were rare in lower Columbia tributaries (~1% average rate among Lampetra ) and common further north (> 40% of Lampetra ). Genetic ID methods are powerful monitoring tools that create the novel ability to ascertain genera and ecotypes regardless of life stage, while increasing the efficiency of surveys by eliminating time‐intensive morphological data collection.
The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform