Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Discrete Event Simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

Modeling Malaria Transmission in Thailand and Indonesia

Malaria Modeling and Surveillance is a project in the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program. The main objectives of this project are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species: 2) implementation of a malaria transmission model to identify they key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. Remote sensing and GIs are the essential elements of this project. The NASA Earth science data sets used in this project include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of precipitation, temperatures, humidity and vegetation. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Examples for spatio-temporal modeling of malaria transmissions in Southeast Asia are given. Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to Southeast Asia. The model and techniques are equally applicable to other regions of the world, when appropriate epidemiological and vector ecological parameters are used as input.

Kiang, Richard↗

Launch Order, Launch Separation, and Loiter in the Constellation 1 1/2-Launch Solution

The NASA Constellation Program (CxP) is developing a two-element Earth-to-Orbit launch system to enable human exploration of the Moon. The first element, Ares I, is a human-rated system that consists of a first stage based on the Space Shuttle Program's solid rocket booster (SRB) and an upper stage that consists of a four-crew Orion capsule, a service module, and a Launch Escape System. The second element, Ares V, is a Saturn V-plus category launch system that consists of the core stage with a cluster of six RS-68B engines and augmented with two 5.5-segment SRBs, a Saturn-derived J-2X engine powering an Earth Departure Stage (EDS), and the lunar-lander vehicle payload, Altair. Initial plans called for the Ares V to be launched first, followed the next day by the Ares I. After the EDS performs the final portion of ascent and subsequent orbit circularization, the Orion spacecraft then performs a rendezvous and docks with the EDS and its Altair payload. Following checkout, the integrated stack loiters in low Earth orbit (LEO) until the appropriate Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI) window opportunity opens, at which time the EDS propels the integrated Orion Altair to the Moon. Successful completion of this 1 1/2-launch solution carries risks related to both the orbital lifetime of the assets and the probability of achieving the launch of the second vehicle within the orbital lifetime of the first. These risks, which are significant in terms of overall system design choices and probability of mission success, dictated a thorough reevaluation of the launch strategy, including the order of vehicle launch and the planned time period between launches. The goal of the effort described in this paper was to select a launch strategy that would result in the greatest possible expected system performance, while accounting for launch risks and the cost of increased orbital lifetime. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model of the launch strategies was created to determine the probability of a second launch not occurring in a timely fashion (i.e., before the assets waiting in LEO expire). An overview of the launch strategy evaluation process is presented, along with results of specific cases that were analyzed. A high-level comparison of options is then presented, along with the conclusion derived from the analysis.

Stromgren, Chel↗

Validating Human Performance Models of the Future Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle

NASA's Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) will provide transportation for crew and cargo to and from destinations in support of the Constellation Architecture Design Reference Missions. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is one of the design methods NASA employs for crew performance of the CEV. During the early development of the CEV, NASA and its prime Orion contractor Lockheed Martin (LM) strived to seek an effective low-cost method for developing and validating human performance DES models. This paper focuses on the method developed while creating a DES model for the CEV Rendezvous, Proximity Operations, and Docking (RPOD) task to the International Space Station. Our approach to validation was to attack the problem from several fronts. First, we began the development of the model early in the CEV design stage. Second, we adhered strictly to M&S development standards. Third, we involved the stakeholders, NASA astronauts, subject matter experts, and NASA's modeling and simulation development community throughout. Fourth, we applied standard and easy-to-conduct methods to ensure the model's accuracy. Lastly, we reviewed the data from an earlier human-in-the-loop RPOD simulation that had different objectives, which provided us an additional means to estimate the model's confidence level. The results revealed that a majority of the DES model was a reasonable representation of the current CEV design.

Wong, Douglas T.↗

Comparative Assessment and Decision Support System for Strategic Military Airlift Capability

The Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company has been awarded several programs to modernize the aging C-5 military transport fleet. In order to ensure its continuation amidst budget cuts, it was important to engage the decision makers by providing an environment to analyze the benefits of the modernization program. This paper describes an interface that allows the user to change inputs such as the scenario airfields, take-off conditions, and reliability characteristics. The underlying logistics surrogate model was generated using data from a discrete-event simulation. Various visualizations such as intercontinental flight paths illustrated in 3D, have been created to aid the user in analyzing scenarios and performing comparative assessments for various output logistics metrics. The capability to rapidly and dynamically evaluate and compare scenarios was developed enabling real time strategy exploration and trade-offs.

Salmon, John↗

Kennedy Space Center Orion Processing Team Planning for Ground Operations

Topics in this presentation are: Constellation Ares I/Orion/Ground Ops Elements Orion Ground Operations Flow Orion Operations Planning Process and Toolset Overview, including: 1 Orion Concept of Operations by Phase 2 Ops Analysis Capabilities Overview 3 Operations Planning Evolution 4 Functional Flow Block Diagrams 5 Operations Timeline Development 6 Discrete Event Simulation (DES) Modeling 7 Ground Operations Planning Document Database (GOPDb) Using Operations Planning Tools for Operability Improvements includes: 1 Kaizen/Lean Events 2 Mockups 3 Human Factors Analysis

Letchworth, Gary↗

NASA Planning for Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Ground Operations

The NASA Orion Ground Processing Team was originally formed by the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Constellation (Cx) Project Office's Orion Division to define, refine and mature pre-launch and post-landing ground operations for the Orion human spacecraft. The multidisciplined KSC Orion team consisted of KSC civil servant, SAIC, Productivity Apex, Inc. and Boeing-CAPPS engineers, project managers and safety engineers, as well as engineers from Constellation's Orion Project and Lockheed Martin Orion Prime contractor. The team evaluated the Orion design configurations as the spacecraft concept matured between Systems Design Review (SDR), Systems Requirement Review (SRR) and Preliminary Design Review (PDR). The team functionally decomposed prelaunch and post-landing steps at three levels' of detail, or tiers, beginning with functional flow block diagrams (FFBDs). The third tier FFBDs were used to build logic networks and nominal timelines. Orion ground support equipment (GSE) was identified and mapped to each step. This information was subsequently used in developing lower level operations steps in a Ground Operations Planning Document PDR product. Subject matter experts for each spacecraft and GSE subsystem were used to define 5th - 95th percentile processing times for each FFBD step, using the Delphi Method. Discrete event simulations used this information and the logic network to provide processing timeline confidence intervals for launch rate assessments. The team also used the capabilities of the KSC Visualization Lab, the FFBDs and knowledge of the spacecraft, GSE and facilities to build visualizations of Orion pre-launch and postlanding processing at KSC. Visualizations were a powerful tool for communicating planned operations within the KSC community (i.e., Ground Systems design team), and externally to the Orion Project, Lockheed Martin spacecraft designers and other Constellation Program stakeholders during the SRR to PDR timeframe. Other operations planning tools included Kaizen/Lean events, mockups and human factors analysis. The majority of products developed by this team are applicable as KSC prepares 21st Century Ground Systems for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and Space Launch System.

Letchworth, Gary↗

Launch and Assembly Reliability Analysis for Human Space Exploration Missions

NASA's future human space exploration strategy includes single and multi-launch missions to various destinations including cis-lunar space, near Earth objects such as asteroids, and ultimately Mars. Each campaign is being defined by Design Reference Missions (DRMs). Many of these missions are complex, requiring multiple launches and assembly of vehicles in orbit. Certain missions also have constrained departure windows to the destination. These factors raise concerns regarding the reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support planned departure. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing launch and assembly reliability in any single DRM or set of DRMs starting with flight hardware manufacturing and ending with final departure to the destination. A discrete event simulation is built for each DRM that includes the pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; ground transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to trans-destination-injection. Each reliability factor can be selectively activated or deactivated so that the most critical risk factors can be identified. This enables NASA to prioritize mitigation actions so as to improve mission success.

Cates, Grant↗

Low Earth Orbit Rendezvous Strategy for Lunar Missions

On January 14, 2004 President George W. Bush announced a new Vision for Space Exploration calling for NASA to return humans to the moon. In 2005 NASA decided to use a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) rendezvous strategy for the lunar missions. A Discrete Event Simulation (DES) based model of this strategy was constructed. Results of the model were then used for subsequent analysis to explore the ramifications of the LEO rendezvous strategy.

Cates, Grant R.↗

Launch and Assembly Reliability Analysis for Mars Human Space Exploration Missions

NASA s long-range goal is focused upon human exploration of Mars. Missions to Mars will require campaigns of multiple launches to assemble Mars Transfer Vehicles in Earth orbit. Launch campaigns are subject to delays, launch vehicles can fail to place their payloads into the required orbit, and spacecraft may fail during the assembly process or while loitering prior to the Trans-Mars Injection (TMI) burn. Additionally, missions to Mars have constrained departure windows lasting approximately sixty days that repeat approximately every two years. Ensuring high reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support the TMI window will be a key enabler to mission success. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing and improving the reliability of the launch and assembly campaign phase. A discrete event simulation involves several pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to TMI. The model accommodates varying numbers of launches, including the potential for spare launches. Having a spare launch capability provides significant improvement to mission success.

Cates, Grant R.↗

Translating MAPGEN to ASPEN for MER

This software translates MAPGEN (Europa and APGEN) domains to ASPEN, and the resulting domain can be used to perform planning for the Mars Exploration Rover (MER). In other words, this is a conversion of two distinct planning languages (both declarative and procedural) to a third (declarative) planning language in order to solve the problem of faithful translation from mixed-domain representations into the ASPEN Modeling Language. The MAPGEN planning system is an example of a hybrid procedural/declarative system where the advantages of each are leveraged to produce an effective planner/scheduler for MER tactical planning. The adaptation of the planning system (ASPEN) was investigated, and, with some translation, much of the procedural knowledge encoding is amenable to declarative knowledge encoding. The approach was to compose translators from the core languages used for adapting MAGPEN, which consists of Europa and APGEN. Europa is a constraint- based planner/scheduler where domains are encoded using a declarative model. APGEN is also constraint-based, in that it tracks constraints on resources and states and other variables. Domains are encoded in both constraints and code snippets that execute according to a forward sweep through the plan. Europa and APGEN communicate to each other using proxy activities in APGEN that represent constraints and/or tokens in Europa. The composition of a translator from Europa to ASPEN was fairly straightforward, as ASPEN is also a declarative planning system, and the specific uses of Europa for the MER domain matched ASPEN s native encoding fairly closely. On the other hand, translating from APGEN to ASPEN was considerably more involved. On the surface, the types of activities and resources one encodes in APGEN appear to match oneto- one to the activities, state variables, and resources in ASPEN. But, when looking into the definitions of how resources are profiled and activities are expanded, one sees code snippets that access various information available during planning for the moment in time being planned to decide at the time what the appropriate profile or expansion is. APGEN is actually a forward (in time) sweeping discrete event simulator, where the model is composed of code snippets that are artfully interleaved by the engine to produce a plan/schedule. To solve this problem, representative code is simulated as a declarative series of task expansions. Predominantly, three types of procedural models were translated: loops, if statements, and code blocks. Loops and if statements were handled using controlled task expansion, and code blocks were handled using constraint networks that maintained the generation of results based on what the order of execution would be for a procedural representation. One advantage with respect to performance for MAPGEN is the use of APGEN s GUI. This GUI is written in C++ and Motif, and performs very well for large plans.

Rabideau, Gregg R.↗

Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit. This effort includes the Space Shuttle derived Space Launch System (SLS), the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) "Orion", and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). There are several requirements and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) that have been levied by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) upon the SLS, MPCV, and GSDO Programs including an integrated Launch Availability (LA) TPM. The LA TPM is used to drive into the SLS, Orion and GSDO designs a high confidence of successfully launching exploration missions that have narrow Earth departure windows. The LA TPM takes into consideration the reliability of the overall system (SLS, Orion and GSDO), natural environments, likelihood of a failure, and the time required to recover from an anomaly. A challenge with the LA TPM is the interrelationships between SLS, Orion, GSDO and the natural environments during launch countdown and launch delays that makes it impossible to develop an analytical solution for calculating the integrated launch probability. This paper provides an overview of how Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modeling was used to develop the LA TPM, how it was allocated down to the individual programs, and how the LA analysis is being used to inform and drive the SLS, Orion, and GSDO designs to ensure adequate launch availability for future human exploration.

Watson, Mike↗

Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit. This effort includes the Space Shuttle derived Space Launch System (SLS), the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). There are several requirements and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) that have been levied by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) upon the SLS, Orion, and GSDO Programs including an integrated Launch Availability (LA) TPM. The LA TPM is used to drive into the SLS, Orion and GSDO designs a high confidence of successfully launching exploration missions that have narrow Earth departure windows. The LA TPM takes into consideration the reliability of the overall system (SLS, Orion and GSDO), natural environments, likelihood of a failure, and the time required to recover from an anomaly. A challenge with the LA TPM is the interrelationships between SLS, Orion, GSDO and the natural environments during launch countdown and launch delays that makes it impossible to develop an analytical solution for calculating the integrated launch probability. This paper provides an overview of how Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modeling was used to develop the LA TPM, how it was allocated down to the individual programs, and how the LA analysis is being used to inform and drive the SLS, Orion, and GSDO designs to ensure adequate launch availability for future human exploration.

Staton, Eric↗

Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS

(1) NASA is developing a new heavy lift launch system for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth orbit comprising of the Space Launch System (SLS), Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO); (2) The desire of the system is to ensure a high confidence of successfully launching the exploration missions, especially those that require multiple launches, have a narrow Earth departure window, and high investment costs; and (3) This presentation discusses the process used by a Cross-Program team to develop the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Launch Availability (LA) Technical Performance Measure (TPM) and allocate it to each of the Programs through the use of Discrete Event Simulations (DES).

Watson, Michael↗

International Human Mission to Mars: Analyzing A Conceptual Launch and Assembly Campaign

In July of 2013, U.S. Congressman Kennedy (D-Mass.) successfully offered an amendment to H.R. 2687, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2013. "International Participation—The President should invite the United States partners in the International Space Station program and other nations, as appropriate, to participate in an international initiative under the leadership of the United States to achieve the goal of successfully conducting a crewed mission to the surface of Mars." This paper presents a concept for an international campaign to launch and assemble a crewed Mars Transfer Vehicle. NASA’s “Human Exploration of Mars: Design Reference Architecture 5.0” (DRA 5.0) was used as the point of departure for this concept. DRA 5.0 assumed that the launch and assembly campaign would be conducted using NASA launch vehicles. The concept presented utilizes a mixed fleet of NASA Space Launch System (SLS), U.S. commercial and international launch vehicles to accomplish the launch and assembly campaign. This concept has the benefit of potentially reducing the campaign duration. However, the additional complexity of the campaign must also be considered. The reliability of the launch and assembly campaign utilizing SLS launches augmented with commercial and international launch vehicles is analyzed and compared using discrete event simulation.

Cates, Grant↗

Launch Availability Analysis for the Artemis Program

On March 26, 2019, Vice President Pence stated that the policy of the Trump administration and the United States of America is to return American astronauts to the Moon within the next five years i.e., by 2024. Since that time, NASA has begun the process of developing concepts of operations and launch campaign options to achieve that goal as well as to provide a sustainable human presence on the Moon. Whereas the Apollo program utilized one Saturn V rocket to carry out a single lunar landing mission of short duration, NASA’s preliminary plans for the Artemis Program call for a combination of medium lift class rockets along with the heavy lift Space Launch System (SLS)to achieve a lunar landing by 2024 as well as subsequent missions. This paper describes how discrete event simulation is used to model the launch campaigns and provide metrics on launch availability and mission duration for each element being launched. Possible methods for improving launch availability are presented.

Grant Cates↗

Feedback-Directed Random Sequence Generation for Verifying Spacecraft Flight Rule Violations

The Psyche: Journey to a Metal World mission will be launched in 2022 to study the largest metal asteroid in the main asteroid belt, (16) Psyche. The spacecraft will perform a Mars Flyby in 2023 and enter (16) Psyche’s orbit in 2026. Throughout the mission, safely operating the spacecraft will require abiding by a set of flight rules that can be defined at any point in the mission lifecycle. These flight rules ensure that the spacecraft is operating within allowed regimes and a discrete event simulation tool, SEQGEN, will be used to model all command sequences prior to uplink. One of SEQGEN’s responsibilities is to determine if a command sequence violates any flight rules. For each flight rule, the necessary logic to determine if a violation has occurred is implemented in the SEQGEN adaptation, which is maintained by the mission. This adaptation must be tested thoroughly to ensure that the flight rule logic was interpreted and implemented correctly. This work describes a tool, RandSEQ, that autogenerates a suite of flight rule violating test sequences for each flight rule implemented in SEQGEN, and can be used by any mission using SEQGEN. The Psyche SEQGEN adaptation is still being developed, but so far, RandSEQ has been used to generate 532 test cases, that can be reviewed by various stakeholders, for 40 flight rules. The ability to autogenerate these test cases has significantly reduced the amount of time required to implement and test each flight rule.

Su, Laura↗

DSIM: A distributed simulator

Discrete event-driven simulation makes it possible to model a computer system in detail. However, such simulation models can require a significant time to execute. This is especially true when modeling large parallel or distributed systems containing many processors and a complex communication network. One solution is to distribute the simulation over several processors. If enough parallelism is achieved, large simulation models can be efficiently executed. This study proposes a distributed simulator called DSIM which can run on various architectures. A simulated test environment is used to verify and characterize the performance of DSIM. The results of the experiments indicate that speedup is application-dependent and, in DSIM's case, is also dependent on how the simulation model is distributed among the processors. Furthermore, the experiments reveal that the communication overhead of ethernet-based distributed systems makes it difficult to achieve reasonable speedup unless the simulation model is computation bound.

Goswami, Kumar K.↗

Non-Lipschitz Dynamics Approach to Discrete Event Systems

This paper presents and discusses a mathematical formalism for simulation of discrete event dynamics (DED) - a special type of 'man- made' system designed to aid specific areas of information processing. A main objective is to demonstrate that the mathematical formalism for DED can be based upon the terminal model of Newtonian dynamics which allows one to relax Lipschitz conditions at some discrete points.

Mathematics Newtonian Dynamics Scientific Computin↗