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At least 127 records · Page 7

Satellite Embedding-Based Population Imputation for Areas with Missing Building Footprint Data: A Computer Vision-Based Approach

High-resolution population modeling is important for supporting effective decision-making across diverse sectors. LandScan Mosaic generates population estimates at the level of individual buildings and aggregates them to 3 arc-second grids, and this approach performs well in regions where building footprint data are comprehensive and reliable. However, large portions of the globe still suffer from incomplete, sparse, or entirely missing building stock datasets, creating a structural limitation for strictly building-based population models. To address this research gap, this study proposes a computer vision-based framework that employs Google Earth Engine satellite embeddings and UNet, which allows us to directly impute grid-level population estimates in building-data-deficient areas. Applied to Taiwan as a case study, the framework achieved strong predictive performance with R$^{2}$ of 0.89, RMSE of 18.70, and MAE of 8.41, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches. Notably, the proposed framework effectively addressed building false-positive errors inherent in Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, correctly identifying uninhabited areas that were erroneously classified as populated. The framework also offers significant advantages for global population mapping, particularly in terms of scalability and temporal consistency, thereby extending the coverage and accuracy of high-resolution population products in data-scarce regions worldwide. Urban planners, decision makers, and related stakeholders can obtain granular population distributions to support more accurate and targeted infrastructure investment, service delivery, resource allocation, and risk assessment decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

An Active Learning-Based Streaming Pipeline for Reduced Data Training of Structure Finding Models in Neutron Diffractometry

Structure determination workloads in neutron diffractometry are computationally expensive and routinely require several hours to many days to determine the structure of a material from its neutron diffraction patterns. The potential for machine learning models trained on simulated neutron scattering patterns to significantly speed up these tasks have been reported recently. However, the amount of simulated data needed to train these models grows exponentially with the number of structural parameters to be predicted and poses a significant computational challenge. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a novel batch-mode active learning (AL) policy that uses uncertainty sampling to simulate training data drawn from a probability distribution that prefers labelled examples about which the model is least certain. We confirm its efficacy in training the same models with ∼ 75% less training data while improving the accuracy. We then discuss the design of an efficient stream-based training workflow that uses this AL policy and present a performance study on two heterogeneous platforms to demonstrate that, compared with a conventional training workflow, the streaming workflow delivers ∼ 20% shorter training time without any loss of accuracy.

Wang, Tianle [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network

Aerospace Engineering Systems

Continuous improvement of aerospace product development processes is a driving requirement across much of the aerospace community. As up to 90% of the cost of an aerospace product is committed during the first 10% of the development cycle, there is a strong emphasis on capturing, creating, and communicating better information (both requirements and performance) early in the product development process. The community has responded by pursuing the development of computer-based systems designed to enhance the decision-making capabilities of product development individuals and teams. Recently, the historical foci on sharing the geometrical representation and on configuration management are being augmented: Physics-based analysis tools for filling the design space database; Distributed computational resources to reduce response time and cost; Web-based technologies to relieve machine-dependence; and Artificial intelligence technologies to accelerate processes and reduce process variability. Activities such as the Advanced Design Technologies Testbed (ADTT) project at NASA Ames Research Center study the strengths and weaknesses of the technologies supporting each of these trends, as well as the overall impact of the combination of these trends on a product development event. Lessons learned and recommendations for future activities will be reported.

VanDalsem, William R.

Coronado Ecological Conservation: Assessing Vegetation Change Due to Border Wall Construction and Shifting Social Trails

Species monitoring is essential in mitigating the impacts of plant invasion, such as radical changes in an area’s ecosystem, degraded soil health, increased wildfire severity, landslides, and increased flooding. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) to investigate invasive species in disturbed lands: specifically, areas affected by off-trail walking and US-Mexico border construction activities. The team assessed how construction has impacted the distribution of Lehmann’s lovegrass and Russian thistle invasives throughout Coronado National Memorial, AZ from 1986 to 2022. Using data from Landsat 5 and 8, Sentinel-2, the National Agriculture Imagery Program, and PlanetScope, the team computed vegetation indices including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Moisture Index, Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and Tasseled Cap Wetness, Brightness, and Greenness transformations as vegetation health indicators to input into various machine learning algorithms. To minimize noise, the team conducted Principal Component Analysis on the vegetation indices and spectral bands before running k-means++ clustering and random forest classification algorithms. Between all datasets, we found the median area fully overtaken by invasive plants was 5.37% of the park’s total area in 2022. The NPS will use the end products to help increase restoration efforts in disturbed areas with high concentrations of invasive plants. The NPS’s collection of ground data for 2022–2023, in conjunction with future data collection, will notably improve the accuracy of classification models, leading to more precise monitoring of invasive spread over time.

Carson Schuetze

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design

Aerospace Engineering Systems and the Advanced Design Technologies Testbed Experience

Continuous improvement of aerospace product development processes is a driving requirement across much of the aerospace community. As up to 90% of the cost of an aerospace product is committed during the first 10% of the development cycle, there is a strong emphasis on capturing, creating, and communicating better information (both requirements and performance) early in the product development process. The community has responded by pursuing the development of computer-based systems designed to enhance the decision-making capabilities of product development individuals and teams. Recently, the historical foci on sharing the geometrical representation and on configuration management are being augmented: 1) Physics-based analysis tools for filling the design space database; 2) Distributed computational resources to reduce response time and cost; 3) Web-based technologies to relieve machine-dependence; and 4) Artificial intelligence technologies to accelerate processes and reduce process variability. The Advanced Design Technologies Testbed (ADTT) activity at NASA Ames Research Center was initiated to study the strengths and weaknesses of the technologies supporting each of these trends, as well as the overall impact of the combination of these trends on a product development event. Lessons learned and recommendations for future activities are reported.

VanDalsem, William R.

Accelerating the Discovery of New, Single Phase High Entropy Ceramics via Active Learning

High-entropy ceramics have garnered interest due to their remarkable hardness, compressive strength, thermal stability, and fracture toughness; yet the discovery of new high-entropy ceramics (out of a tremendous number of possible elemental permutations) still largely requires costly, inefficient, trial-and-error experimental and computational approaches. The entropy forming ability (EFA) factor was recently proposed as a computational descriptor that positively correlates with the likelihood that a 5-metal high-entropy carbide (HECs) will form the desired single phase, homogeneous solid solution; however, discovery of new compositions is computationally expensive. If you consider 8 candidate metals, the HEC EFA approach uses 49 optimizations for each of the 56 unique 5-metal carbides, requiring a total of 2744 costly density functional theory calculations. Here, we describe an orders-of-magnitude more efficient active learning (AL) approach for identifying novel HECs. To begin, we compared numerous methods for generating composition-based feature vectors (e.g., magpie and mat2vec), deployed an ensemble of machine learning (ML) models to generate an average and distribution of predictions, and then utilized the distribution as an uncertainty. Here we then deployed an AL approach to extract new training data points where the ensemble of ML models predicted a high EFA value or was uncertain of the prediction. Our approach has the combined benefit of decreasing the amount of training data required to reach acceptable prediction qualities and biases the predictions toward identifying HECs with the desired high EFA values, which are tentatively correlated with the formation of single phase HECs. Using this approach, we increased the number of 5-metal carbides screened from 56 to 15,504, revealing 4 compositions with record-high EFA values that were previously unreported in the literature. Our AL framework is also generalizable and could be modified to rationally predict optimized candidate materials/combinations with a wide range of desired properties (e.g., mechanical stability, thermal conductivity).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Learning energy-based representations of quantum many-body states

Efficient representation of quantum many-body states on classical computers is a problem of practical importance. An ideal representation of a quantum state combines a succinct characterization informed by the structure and symmetries of the system along with the ability to predict the physical observables of interest. Several machine-learning approaches have been recently used to construct such classical representations, which enable predictions of observables and account for physical symmetries. However, the structure of a quantum state typically gets lost unless a specialized is employed based on prior knowledge of the system. Moreover, most such approaches give no information about what states are easier to learn in comparison with others. Here, we propose a generative energy-based representation of quantum many-body states derived from Gibbs distributions used for modeling the thermal states of classical spin systems. Based on the prior information on a family of quantum states, the energy function can be specified by a small number of parameters using an explicit low-degree polynomial or a generic parametric family such as neural nets and can naturally include the known symmetries of the system. Our results show that such a representation can be efficiently learned from data using exact algorithms in a form that enables the prediction of expectation values of physical observables. Importantly, the structure of the learned energy function provides a natural explanation for the difficulty of learning an energy-based representation of a given class of quantum states when measured in a certain basis. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Fostering Geothermal Machine Learning Success: Elevating Big Data Accessibility and Automated Data Standardization in the Geothermal Data Repository

The Department of Energy's (DOE's) Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) has implemented improvements to both its data lakes and its data standards and automated data pipelines. The GDR data lakes have reduced storage and compute-related barriers to using large geothermal datasets, enabling these large datasets to be accessed by anyone with a modern computer and internet access. More recently, the GDR has been working to further reduce barriers through streamlining the data intake process, educating users on the process and requirements, and helping users access data from the data lakes. These improvements have augmented the quantity of datasets the GDR is able to accept into its data lakes and have enabled users who are new to cloud tools to access these datasets more easily, overall increasing the accessibility of big geothermal data for use in machine learning and other projects. In addition, the GDR now has built-in data standards and pipelines for drilling data, geospatial data, and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) data. These standardization efforts aim to enhance the real-world applicability of geothermal machine learning outcomes by improving the quality of training data. Specifically, through standardizing high-value datasets, the GDR is reducing project-specific data curation requirements, thus allowing more time for actual research. By automating this process, the burden of standardization is lifted from the user, ultimately increasing the availability of standardized data. This paper provides an update on recent improvements made to the GDR's data lakes and automated data pipelines, including: (1) streamlining the data lake intake process, (2) better educating users on the process and requirements through a new data lakes page, (3) adding data lake direct access links to GDR data lake submission pages, (4) implementing a DAS data pipeline to convert DAS data uploaded in SEG-Y format to a standardized hierarchical data format v5 (HDF5), (5) extending this pipeline to encompass data in the GDR data lake, (6) adding metadata requirements for geospatial data, (7) making user interface/user experience (UX) enhancements to the data pipelines' documentation pages, and (8) improving the GDR's data standards and pipelines pages to better guide users in ensuring that their data is standardized by the GDR's automated data pipelines. 2024 Geothermal Resources Council. All rights reserved.

accessibility

iDDS: intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling for workflow orchestration

The intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling (iDDS) service is a versatile workflow orchestration system designed for large-scale, distributed scientific computing. iDDS extends traditional workload and data management by integrating data-aware execution, conditional logic, and programmable workflows, enabling automation of complex and dynamic processing pipelines. Originally developed for the ATLAS experiment at the large hadron collider, iDDS has evolved into an experiment-agnostic platform that supports both template-driven workflows and a Function-as-a-Task model for Python-based orchestration. This paper presents the architecture and core components of iDDS, highlighting its scalability, modular message-driven design, and integration with systems such as PanDA and Rucio. We demonstrate its versatility through real-world use cases: fine-grained tape resource optimization for ATLAS, orchestration of large Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) workflows for the Rubin Observatory, distributed hyperparameter optimization for machine learning applications, active learning for physics analyses, and AI-assisted detector design at the electron–ion collider. By unifying workload scheduling, data movement, and adaptive decision-making, iDDS reduces operational overhead and enables reproducible, high-throughput workflows across heterogeneous infrastructures. We conclude with current challenges and future directions, including interactive, cloud-native, and serverless workflow support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Image-Based Fracture Surface Defect Characterization Methods for Additively Manufactured Ti-6Al-4V Tested in Fatigue

Abstract Fatigue initiation in additively manufactured samples/parts often occurs at processed-induced defects such as lack-of-fusion (LoF), keyhole, or other morphological/microstructural defects that have unique characteristics and measurable qualities. Attempts at identifying and minimizing such defects have utilized optimized processing conditions along with in situ and ex situ characterization that includes metallography and/or X-ray computed tomography (XCT). This paper highlights the benefits of using fracture surface analyses to detect and quantify defects that may not be detected by metallography/XCT due to sectioning and resolution limits. In addition to using manual quantification of fatigue initiating LoF and keyhole defects on fracture surfaces, image-based machine learning using convolutional neural networks such as U-Net were also used to automate the process. Statistical analyses were used to identify the extreme cases of defects that initiated and accelerated fatigue and to model the distribution of defect size and shape characteristics to distinguish the type of defect. Initial results show agreement between trained machine learning models and ground truth data in defect segmentation, and the distributions of defect characteristics are distinguishable to particular process-induced defect types.

Materials Science

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

A Data-Agnostic, Continuous Machine Learning Framework for Application in High Energy Physics and Beyond: Phase 1 Final Scientific/Technical Report

This Phase 1 effort has focused on the development of continual learning frameworks for use in machine learning, specifically in the applied context of High Energy Physics (HEP). Machine learning (ML) is a transformative technology by which computers, typically through the use of neural networks, are able to perform tasks with proficiency that rivals or surpasses that of human users. Model Degradation & Catastrophic Forgetting are two undesired phenomena which can occur in ML where the performance of a model degrades when either deployed on novel data streams, or trained on novel data which are sufficiently different than the data the models were initially trained on. A natural example where these sorts of effects can be observed is in the performance of detectors in harsh environments, where the detector signature may change over the lifetime of the detector as it ages and deteriorates — precisely what occurs in the experiments conducted in HEP. Real world HEP data is therefore an excellent test-ground and use-case for Continual Learning paradigms, which are techniques used in ML to counteract these problems. Ensemble learning is one such technique, where multiple smaller models are trained on subsets of the overall data and are ensembled together during inference. The intuition behind this technique is that, although there are shifts in the distributions which govern the incoming data streams, these shifts are not expected to be homogeneous or global. If a sufficient diversity in solutions within the various sub-models has been achieved, then at least one sub-model is expected to retain its performance within the overall ensemble. One further strength of this approach is that the architectures of the various models do not need to be identical, and in fact even different modalities of data can naturally be combined in this way. This work focused on applying ensemble learning techniques to derive results using two main datasets, anomaly detection in HEP data & time-series forecasting in semiconductor manufacturing data. Semiconductor manufacturing involves data with surprising similarity to that of HEP (e.g. wafer maps look very similar to digi-occupancy maps) and Cerium Lab’s prominence within the semiconductor industry makes semiconductor manufacturing a natural opportunity for commercialization of this work. Our efforts have led to two strong results. The first is that we evaluated the proposed ensembling techniques using previously proposed machine learning architectures for use in anomaly detection, namely AutoEncoder based models and their derivatives. We also developed new architectures which have not been evaluated in this context before. In fact, this work marks the first use of Vision Transformers for anomaly detection in HEP. Second, we demonstrated that ensemble learning significantly improves model performance in scenarios prone to degradation, validating its effectiveness across both HEP and semiconductor datasets. These results further support ensemble learning as a powerful strategy for mitigating catastrophic forgetting and maintaining robust performance in evolving data environments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Understanding Heating in Active Region Cores through Machine Learning. I. Numerical Modeling and Predicted Observables

To adequately constrain the frequency of energy deposition in active region cores in the solar corona, systematic comparisons between detailed models and observational data are needed. In this paper, we describe a pipeline for forward modeling active region emission using magnetic field extrapolations and field-aligned hydrodynamic models. We use this pipeline to predict time-dependent emission from active region NOAA 1158 for low-, intermediate-, and high-frequency nanoflares. In each pixel of our predicted multi-wavelength, time-dependent images, we compute two commonly used diagnostics: the emission measure slope and the time lag. We find that signatures of the heating frequency persist in both of these diagnostics. In particular, our results show that the distribution of emission measure slopes narrows and the mean decreases with decreasing heating frequency and that the range of emission measure slopes is consistent with past observational and modeling work. Furthermore, we find that the time lag becomes increasingly spatially coherent with decreasing heating frequency while the distribution of time lags across the whole active region becomes more broad with increasing heating frequency. In a follow-up paper, we train a random forest classifier on these predicted diagnostics and use this model to classify real observations of NOAA 1158 in terms of the underlying heating frequency.

UV radiation

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling