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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
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NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification in Remaining Useful Life of Aerospace Components using State Space Models and Inverse FORM

This paper investigates the use of the inverse first-order reliability method (inverse- FORM) to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) of aerospace components. The prediction of remaining useful life is an integral part of system health prognosis, and directly helps in online health monitoring and decision-making. However, the prediction of remaining useful life is affected by several sources of uncertainty, and therefore it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. While system parameter uncertainty and physical variability can be easily included in inverse-FORM, this paper extends the methodology to include: (1) future loading uncertainty, (2) process noise; and (3) uncertainty in the state estimate. The inverse-FORM method has been used in this paper to (1) quickly obtain probability bounds on the remaining useful life prediction; and (2) calculate the entire probability distribution of remaining useful life prediction, and the results are verified against Monte Carlo sampling. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a numerical example.

Sankararaman, Shankar↗
NASA NTRS2018

LUVOIR Primary Mirror Segment Alignment Control With Joint Laser Metrology and Segment Edge Sensing

An approach is developed for the alignment and stability maintenance of the LUVOIR segmented primary mirror using a segment state estimation and wavefront control method based on a hybrid segment motion sensing architecture of laser truss metrology and segment edge sensors. Our current computer model was generated for LUVOIR Architecture Option A with a 15-meter aperture, 120segment primary mirror. The methodology and simulation results will be presented and analyzed. JPL has a long history of technology development in laser metrology and edge sensors, including work in SIM [7], Keck and TMT [8], CCAT [3] and LUVOIR [1]. We will discuss our current efforts of LUVOIR laser metrology and edge-sensor models development, showing sensitivities of sensor measurements to various mirror eigenmodes, removing global modes and strengthening weak modes by performing joint (hybrid) laser-metrology and edge sensing. We will define and derive an important performance metric called wavefront error multiplier (WEM), and show that WEM provides a simple link between sensor errors and the closed-loop (controlled) system wavefront error. We will show WEM values for several hybrid sensor configuration options studied. We will discuss an algorithm for mirror shape control and maintenance through segment state and wavefront estimations using joint edge-metrology sensing. We will compare simulated performance of mirror state estimation, wavefront estimation and wavefront control based on joint edge-metrology sensing among several sensor configurations, and show the impact of sensor error distributions on the segmented mirror alignment performance. Mirror shape control performance will be also be evaluated in terms of imaging contrast between inner working angles (IWA) and outer working angles (OWA) of a LUVOIR coronagraph. The research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. LUVOIR is a mission concept under study for the next astronomy Decadal Survey—the information presented in this paper is pre-decisional and is provided for planning and discussion purposes only.

Shelton, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS1991

Event-scale relationships between surface velocity, temperature and chlorophyll in the coastal ocean, as seen by satellite

The overall goal of this project was to increase our understanding of processes which determine the temporally varying distributions of surface chlorophyll pigment concentration and surface temperature in the California Current System (CCS) on the time-scale of 'events', i.e., several days to several weeks. We also proposed to investigate seasonal and regional differences in these events. Additionally, we proposed to evaluate methods of estimating surface velocities and horizontal transport of pigment and heat from sequences of AVHRR and CZCS images. The four specific objectives stated in the original proposal were to: (1) test surface current estimates made from sequences of both SST and color images using variations of the statistical method of Emery et al. (1986) and estimate the uncertainties in these satellite-derived surface currents; (2) characterize the spatial and temporal relationships of chlorophyll and temperature in rapidly evolving features for which adequate imagery exist and evaluate the contribution of these events to monthly and seasonal averages; (3) use the methods tested in (1) to determine the nature of the velocity fields in the CCS; and (4) compare the currents, temperature, and currents in different seasons and in different geographic regions.

Strub, P. Ted↗
NASA NTRS2018

Improving the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission generates, among other data sets, the Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4 SM) product. The L4 SM algorithm is based on the assimilation of SMAP radiometer brightness temperature observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter. The L4 SM data are published with a mean latency of approx. 2.5 days from the time of observation and provide global, three-hourly, 9 km resolution estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture and related land surface states and fluxes. In 2018, the product was upgraded from Version 3 to Version 4. Underlying the new version is a revised modeling system that includes improved input parameter datasets for land cover, topography, and vegetation height that are based on recent, high quality space-borne remote sensing observations. Land cover inputs were updated to the GlobCover2009 product, which is based on satellite observations from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. Topographic statistics now rely on observations from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Finally, vegetation height inputs are derived from space-borne Lidar measurements. Additionally, SMAP Level-2 soil moisture retrievals and in situ soil moisture measurements were used to calibrate a particular Catchment model parameter that governs the recharge of soil moisture from the models root-zone excess reservoir into the surface excess reservoir. Specifically, the replenishment of soil moisture near the surface from below under non-equilibrium conditions was substantially reduced, which brings the models surface soil moisture more in line with the SMAP Level 2 and in situ soil moisture. Finally, the calibration of the assimilated SMAP brightness temperatures changed substantially from Version 3 to Version 4. Considerable effort went into the version upgrade, creating an expectation that the new version is improved over the old version. Indeed, some aspects of the new version are clearly better. However, other aspects are not, and on balance, the overall improvement is modest at best. In this presentation we summarize the skill of the new and old versions vs. independent in situ measurements and in terms of data assimilation diagnostics, including, for example, the statistics of the (soil moisture) analysis increments and the observation minus forecast (brightness temperatures) residuals. We share our experience with trying to improve to the L4 SM product and the lessons learned from the effort.

Reichle, Rolf↗
NASA NTRS2018

Recent Updates in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Algorithm

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission generates, among other data sets, the Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product. The L4_SM data are published with a mean latency of ~2.5 days from the time of observation and provide global, three-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture and related land surface states and fluxes. The L4_SM algorithm is based on the assimilation of SMAP radiometer brightness temperature observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In 2018, the L4_SM algorithm was upgraded from Version 3 to Version 4. Underlying the new version is a revised modeling system that includes improved input parameter datasets for land cover, topography, and vegetation height that are based on recent, high-quality, space-borne remote sensing observations. Additionally, SMAP Level-2 soil moisture retrievals and in situ soil moisture measurements were used to calibrate a particular Catchment model parameter that governs the recharge of surface soil moisture from below under non-equilibrium conditions, which brings the model's surface soil moisture more in line with the SMAP Level-2 and in situ soil moisture. Moreover, the calibration of the assimilated SMAP brightness temperatures changed substantially from Version 3 to Version 4, and the "catchment deficit" model variable was removed from the EnKF state vector to avoid degrading the model's groundwater estimates.Considerable effort went into the version upgrade, creating an expectation that the new version is improved over the old version. Indeed, some aspects of the new version are clearly better. However, other aspects are not. In this presentation we summarize the skill of the new and old versions vs. independent in situ measurements and in terms of data assimilation diagnostics, including, for example, the statistics of the (soil moisture) analysis increments and the observation-minus-forecast (brightness temperatures) residuals. We share our experience with trying to improve to the L4_SM product and the lessons learned from the effort.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Retrieval Assimilation and Modeling of Atmospheric Water Vapor from Ground- and Space-Based GPS Networks: Investigation of the Global and Regional Hydrological Cycles

Uncertainty over the response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle (particularly the distribution of water vapor and cloudiness) to anthropogenic forcing is a primary source of doubt in current estimates of global climate sensitivity, which raises severe difficulties in evaluating its likely societal impact. Fortunately, a variety of advanced techniques and sensors are beginning to shed new light on the atmospheric hydrological cycle. One of the most promising makes use of the sensitivity of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to the thermodynamic state, and in particular the water vapor content, of the atmosphere through which the radio signals propagate. Our strategy to derive the maximum benefit for hydrological studies from the rapidly increasing GPS data stream will proceed in three stages: (1) systematically analyze and archive quality-controlled retrievals using state-of-the-art techniques; (2) employ both currently available and innovative assimilation procedures to incorporate these determinations into advanced regional and global atmospheric models and assess their effects; and (3) apply the results to investigate selected scientific issues of relevance to regional and global hydrological studies. An archive of GPS-based estimation of total zenith delay (TZD) data and water vapor where applicable has been established with expanded automated quality control. The accuracy of the GPS estimates is being monitored; the investigation of systematic errors is ongoing using comparisons with water vapor radiometers. Meteorological packages have been implemented. The accuracy and utilization of the TZD estimates has been improved by implementing a troposphere gradient model. GPS-based gradients have been validated as real atmospheric moisture gradients, establishing a link between the estimated gradients and the passage of weather fronts. We have developed a generalized ray tracing inversion scheme that can be used to analyze occultation data acquired from space- or land-based receivers. The National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (version MM5) has been adapted for Southern California, and assimilation studies are underway. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dickey, Jean O.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Frequency-Modulated, Continuous-Wave Laser Ranging Using Photon-Counting Detectors

Optical ranging is a problem of estimating the round-trip flight time of a phase- or amplitude-modulated optical beam that reflects off of a target. Frequency- modulated, continuous-wave (FMCW) ranging systems obtain this estimate by performing an interferometric measurement between a local frequency- modulated laser beam and a delayed copy returning from the target. The range estimate is formed by mixing the target-return field with the local reference field on a beamsplitter and detecting the resultant beat modulation. In conventional FMCW ranging, the source modulation is linear in instantaneous frequency, the reference-arm field has many more photons than the target-return field, and the time-of-flight estimate is generated by balanced difference- detection of the beamsplitter output, followed by a frequency-domain peak search. This work focused on determining the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation algorithm when continuous-time photoncounting detectors are used. It is founded on a rigorous statistical characterization of the (random) photoelectron emission times as a function of the incident optical field, including the deleterious effects caused by dark current and dead time. These statistics enable derivation of the Cramér-Rao lower bound (CRB) on the accuracy of FMCW ranging, and derivation of the ML estimator, whose performance approaches this bound at high photon flux. The estimation algorithm was developed, and its optimality properties were shown in simulation. Experimental data show that it performs better than the conventional estimation algorithms used. The demonstrated improvement is a factor of 1.414 over frequency-domainbased estimation. If the target interrogating photons and the local reference field photons are costed equally, the optimal allocation of photons between these two arms is to have them equally distributed. This is different than the state of the art, in which the local field is stronger than the target return. The optimal processing of the photocurrent processes at the outputs of the two detectors is to perform log-matched filtering followed by a summation and peak detection. This implies that neither difference detection, nor Fourier-domain peak detection, which are the staples of the state-of-the-art systems, is optimal when a weak local oscillator is employed.

Erkmen, Baris I.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stochastic robustness

To carry out stochastic robustness analysis, an expected probability distribution is assigned to each uncertain parameter in the system. The Monte Carlo analysis proceeds by repeatedly assigning shaped random values to each plant parameter, evaluating the stability of performance metric, and performing the binary classification (stable/unstable, etc.). If the system is stable, the state response to a unit disturbance impulse can be propagated to establish whether the response would violate settling time envelopes and whether peak actuator use would violate predetermined maximums. The final estimates of the probability of each form of unacceptable behavior are found by dividing the number of cases in which the overall system had that form of unacceptability by the number of cases run. Stability robustness can be portrayed graphically using the stochastic root locus and by using histograms of parameter values found in the unacceptable cases.

Marrison, C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

A massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)is used to assimilate temperature data from the TOGA/TAO array and altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON into a Pacific basin version of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. The EnKF is an approximate Kalman filter in which the error-covariance propagation step is modeled by the integration of multiple instances of a numerical model. An estimate of the true error covariances is then inferred from the distribution of the ensemble of model state vectors. This inplementation of the filter takes advantage of the inherent parallelism in the EnKF algorithm by running all the model instances concurrently. The Kalman filter update step also occurs in parallel by having each processor process the observations that occur in the region of physical space for which it is responsible. The massively parallel data assimilation system is validated by withholding some of the data and then quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The distributions of the forecast and analysis error covariances predicted by the ENKF are also examined.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

Adler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2010

Downscaling Soil Moisture in the Southern Great Plains Through a Calibrated Multifractal Model for Land Surface Modeling Applications

Accounting for small-scale spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture (theta) is required to enhance the predictive skill of land surface models. In this paper, we present the results of the development, calibration, and performance evaluation of a downscaling model based on multifractal theory using aircraft!based (800 m) theta estimates collected during the southern Great Plains experiment in 1997 (SGP97).We first demonstrate the presence of scale invariance and multifractality in theta fields of nine square domains of size 25.6 x 25.6 sq km, approximately a satellite footprint. Then, we estimate the downscaling model parameters and evaluate the model performance using a set of different calibration approaches. Results reveal that small-scale theta distributions are adequately reproduced across the entire region when coarse predictors include a dynamic component (i.e., the spatial mean soil moisture ) and a stationary contribution accounting for static features (i.e., topography, soil texture, vegetation). For wet conditions, we found similar multifractal properties of soil moisture across all domains, which we ascribe to the signature of rainfall spatial variability. For drier states, the theta fields in the northern domains are more intermittent than in southern domains, likely because of differences in the distribution of vegetation coverage. Through our analyses, we propose a regional downscaling relation for coarse, satellite-based soil moisture estimates, based on ancillary information (static and dynamic landscape features), which can be used in the study area to characterize statistical properties of small-scale theta distribution required by land surface models and data assimilation systems.

Mascaro, Giuseppe↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Keppenne, Christian↗
NASA NTRS1974

MEGASTAR: The Meaning of Energy Growth: An Assessment of Systems, Technologies, and Requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach that includes the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption for the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario. The total requirements and the energy subsystems for each scenario are assessed for their primary impacts in the areas of society, the environment, technology and the economy.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1974

MEGASTAR: The meaning of growth. An assessment of systems, technologies, and requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach methodology including the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption from the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1995

Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope observations of H2 toward the planetary nebula NGC 1535

We have observed the far-ultraviolet spectrum (912-1860 A) of the bright high-excitation planetary nebula NGC 1535 with approximately 3 A resolution using the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope (HUT) aboard the Astro-1 space shuttle pmission in 1990 December. We see strong continuum emission down to the Lyman limit and strong P Cygni profiles from high-excitation lines such as C IV wavelength 1549, N V wavelength 1240, O V wavelength 1371, and O VI wavelength 1035. Below 1150 A strong absorption bands of H2 are seen, which were unanticipated by us because of the low reddening and high galactic latitude of the object and the absence of detected H2 emission in the infrared. We construct model H2 spectra and convolve them to the HUT resolution for comparison with the NGC 1535 data. We find good agreement with a population distribution characterized by a single temperature (T = 300 K) or a two-temperature model (T = 144/500 K), and determine limits on the H2 column density. While both inter-stellar and circumstellar origins for the observed H2 absorption are plausible, we ascribe the material to the planetary nebula in order to estimate the conditions of excitation and place upper limits on the mass of both H2 and H1 in this system. Because the UV transitions are ground-state connected, we determine a stringent upper limit of 0.03 d(sup 2)(sub 1.6) solar mass on the mass of H2, where d(sub 1.6) is the distance relative to an assumed distance of 1.6 kpc. This value is less model-dependent than IR estimates. Along with the central star and nebular masses, these estimates allow us to limit the main-sequence mass of the progenitor star to less than 1.8 solar mass. This upper limit is consistent with a relatively low-mass extended thick disk or Population II progenitor, as expected for an object approximately 1 kpc off the galactic plane.

Bowers, Charles W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

Daigle, Matthew↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AEGIS: Autonomous Entity Global Intelligence System for Urban Air Mobility

This paper presents a global intelligence system that synthesizes aerial vehicles’ real-time physical data, planned actions, and historical behavior into engineered data frames representing the collective state of the airspace and suitable for efficient machine learning consumption. These data frames are then learnt by a deep neural net to build a prediction model that estimates the expected evolution path of the current state, thereby identifying potential future conflicts. This approach lends itself to an automated early warning system that the aerial vehicles can implement onboard with a suitable edge computing module more efficiently and effectively than non-AI methods, and eventually take preventive or corrective measures towards self/collaborative resolution of the issues. Contrary to a centralized early warning system where all vehicles’ task-space eventually converges to a global optimum state, the presented distributed global intelligence system brings in a balance between local utility functions of each vehicle and the global operating framework. This contributes to effectively handle the potential massive scaling in urban air mobility in the near future.

Artificial Intelligence↗