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At least 127 records · Page 7

The importance of delayed neutron precursors in gamma dose calculations for activated primary heat exchanger components in the Molten Salt Breeder Reactor

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Multiphysics Applications technical area in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program has supported the development of 3D Monte Carlo models of the Molten Salt Breeder Reactor (MSBR) over the last couple of years. This MSBR model was previously run with the Shift Monte Carlo code to perform radiation shielding calculations in the reactor cell area. The MSBR is a 2250 MWth (1000 MWe) liquid-fueled molten salt reactor design developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the 1970s. Determining the source terms from activated primary heat exchanger (HX) components is important because delayed and prompt neutron fluxes incident on these components affect the dose rate in the primary HX maintenance areas. This information can be used in the development of remote handling procedures required during shutdown for maintenance. A methodology has been developed and is proposed in this paper to quantify the activated source term from the primary HX components as a result of the movement of the delayed neutron precursors in flowing primary fuel salt through the primary HXs in the MSBR. The goal of this research is to evaluate the gamma dose rates in the maintenance hatches above the primary HX using the activated HX source terms. The study showed that the gamma dose rates are approximately two orders of magnitudes higher when accounting for the neutron activation from the movement of delayed neutron precursors through the HXs than when flowing fuel is not considered. Thus, the movement of delayed neutron precursors must be taken into account for accurately predicting the neutron activation of primary loop components.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

ECAR-7448 Rev 0 MARVEL Post-Shutdown Dose Analysis in the Upper Confinement

This report documents a bounding post-shutdown dose rates over time in the upper confinement area and above the top of the TREXc Pit Shield at the end of two years of operation of the MARVEL microreactor. The dose rates take into consideration the doses from the core fission products, the sodium-potassium coolant (NaK), the steel components, the Stirling engines, and the gallium eutectic (EGaInSn) secondary coolant. The MCNP model in this analysis is based on the 90% design of the MARVEL reactor from ECAR- 7447. Neutron fluence used as inputs to this analysis were calculated in ECAR-7447.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Comprehensive Analysis of Streaming and Shutdown Dose Rate Experiments at JET with ORNL Fusion Neutronics Workflows

Current experimental fusion systems and conceptual designs of fusion pilot plants (FPPs) are growing in complexity and size. Several radiation metrics are crucial to the safe operation of fusion machines, including neutron flux streaming through openings and the shutdown dose rate (SDDR). Most current designs of advanced experimental fusion systems—and the most probable candidates for FPPs—are based on the tokamak concept, which is prone to neutron streaming through the myriad openings needed for diagnostic and support systems. SDDR is caused by decay gamma rays from radionuclides that become activated by neutrons during the operation of a fusion system that use deuterium-deuterium (DD), tritium-tritium, or deuterium-tritium plasma. Because computational tools have become essential for determining these radiation metrics, they must be validated against reliable and applicable experimental data. Experiments at the Joint European Torus (JET) provide a unique source of experimental data for validating computational tools and nuclear data used to determine SDDR and neutron fluxes in streaming-dominated geometries. Here, this paper presents the comprehensive analysis of the high-performance DD JET SDDR, and streaming experiments performed using Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) fusion workflows. The computational results were compared with experimental results that consist of online SDDR measurements with ionization chambers and neutron fluence streaming measurements using thermoluminescent detectors. The ratio of calculated-to-experimental SDDR values ranges from 0.6 to 2.5, and the streaming results range from 0.5 to 8.0. Future work will include analyzing the JET 2021 DTE2 campaign alongside the integration of the Shift Monte Carlo transport code into all ORNL fusion neutronics workflows.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Effects of 63 MeV proton irradiation on the performance of MWIR InGaAs/InAsSb nBn photodetectors

An investigation into the effects of 63 MeV proton irradiation on high-sensitivity mid-wave infrared InGaAs/InAsSb nBn devices is performed. Three different structures with various absorber region doping profiles are irradiated and characterized to assess their impact on performance degradation. Minority carrier lifetime is measured using time-resolved photoluminescence and lifetime damage factors are assessed. The majority carrier concentration is determined via capacitance–voltage measurements and dopant introduction rates are calculated. An analysis of dark current density is performed using these material parameters, revealing a reduction in mobility with proton fluence and the emergence of a proton-induced trap energy level. Quantum efficiency is calculated at each proton fluence, and quantum efficiency damage factors show that the graded doping structure exhibits the least reduction of quantum efficiency with dose, attributed to its effective mobility enhancement. Conclusively, detector sensitivity, assessed via shot-noise limited noise-equivalent irradiance, shows that the graded doping structure is the least susceptible to high energy proton irradiation-induced performance degradation.

Physics↗

Modeling Radionuclide Inventories in MSR Off-Gas Systems with Radiochemical Transport Analysis

Molten salt reactors (MSR) contain unique characteristics that may require enhancements to modeling tools to accurately predict phenomena. One characteristic that may be advantageous to leverage during normal operation is on-line processing of the circulating fuel salt, such as an off-gas system (OGS) to remove volatile fission products. Therefore, new modeling tools must be developed to integrate spatial resolution and chemistry effects into fuel depletion tools to be able to account for these non-core sources of radioactivity. Such types of radiochemical transport analysis tools were used to estimate the removal rates for 12 elements within a flow model of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) by optimizing against legacy experimental data of the gas-borne (GB) percentages of 12 nuclides. The removal rates were used in a depletion model to calculate the FP inventory that enters the MSRE OGS. Calculations are in good agreement with the empirical GB percentages reported for the 12 nuclides, which validates the approach and verifies each tool’s treatment of the radiochemical flow effects. The OGS inventory is discussed in terms of the largest nuclide contributors to activity, dose consequence, decay heat, and elemental composition. Finally, insights from the study allow recommendations to be made for future code development activities.

Shahbazi, Shayan↗

Preliminary Criticality and Radiation Shielding Analysis for the Storage and Transfer of MARVEL Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel

This report documents the results of preliminary nuclear criticality and radiation shielding assessments during transfer and dry storage of irradiated Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor fuel at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The assessments focus on transfer casks and storage canisters that are currently in use at INL, which may be compatible with the irradiated MARVEL reactor fuel. The criticality assessments were performed using the radiation transport code MCNP6 with 37 MARVEL reactor fuel elements in various configurations and scenarios. All transfer and storage configurations under dry conditions were below the assumed criticality safety limit of 0.93. Some storage and transfer configurations under wet conditions exceeded the criticality safety limit. This suggests that the appropriate administrative and engineering controls, in addition to reducing the number of MARVEL reactor fuel elements per transfer cask or storage canister, can be expected to ensure criticality safety under all scenarios. The radiation shielding assessments were performed by generating conservative neutron and photon source terms using the ORIGEN module in the SCALE suite of codes. These source spectra were used to estimate the dose equivalent rates using the radiation transport code MCNP6, both on contact and 1 m away from the fuel and transfer casks. The maximum estimated dose equivalent rate of 37 unshielded MARVEL reactor fuel elements on contact is approximately 42000 R/hr. The maximum estimated dose equivalent rates on contact to the ATR transfer cask, HFEF-5 transfer cask, and high load charger were approximately 233 mR/hr, 171 mR/hr, and 201 mR/hr, respectively. This suggests that with the appropriate administrative and engineering controls, all three transfer casks analyzed can be expected to provide sufficient radiation shielding to workers during transfer of irradiated MARVEL reactor fuel. These calculations are performed to support the planning and strategy for the MARVEL project and will demonstrate the technical viability of the different configurations discussed and help identify where engineered or administrative controls may be necessary. A complete criticality safety analysis and radiation shielding analysis, including validation and contingency and accident analysis must be completed by licensed and authorized personnel before any transfer or storage of MARVEL reactor nuclear fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Calculated Gamma Output from a 6-kilogram Sphere of Neptunium

We previously modeled a 6 kg neptunium sphere with pyDMTK 2.0.0b, a python-based intrinsic radiation (INRAD) modeling tool, on the MOONLIGHT machine. Here we report results from version 2.0.1b on SNOW, another TriLab Linux Capacity Cluster (TLCC) resource on the Laboratory’s Turquoise network. We also present gamma output from MCNP 6.2.0 in terms of discrete line strengths, full gamma spectra, and dose rate maps for visualization. Results from both models agree with recent gamma measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Griffin Capability Improvements in Support of Ex-core Deep-Penetration Problems

Advanced reactor designs, especially portable reactors that are designed to be located closer to humans and operate autonomously, require the ability to accurately compute the ex-core neutron and gamma flux solutions in terms of shielding design optimization to reduce dose rates at the vessel boundary and detector signal prediction to drive the reactor control system. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program has prioritized improvements to the Griffin discrete ordinates (SN) solver for deep-penetration problems in fiscal year 2025. Significant advancements have been made to the Griffin methodologies for solving ex-core deep-penetration problems for steady-state, fixed-source and transient calculations. This work presents the methodology improvements as well as a comprehensive demonstration with a Transient Test Reactor model and measurements.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradradioactive chemicals modeled. And finally, the calculations assume all 12 tests will be performed at the same place at both locations, and all 11 radioactive material types will be used for each test. This is conservative because it is anticipated that no more than two material types will be used per test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

User’s Manual for RESRAD-BUILD Code V.4: Vol. 1 – Methodology and Models Used in RESRAD-BUILD Code

The RESRAD-BUILD computer code models radionuclide release and transport in indoor environments and performs pathway analyses to evaluate the potential radiological dose and risk incurred by an individual who works or lives in a building contaminated with radioactive material or housing radioactively contaminated furniture or equipment. The code provides four geometries to characterize a radiation source: point, line, area, and volume, in which radionuclides are homogeneously distributed. Radionuclides contained in a source are considered to be released to the indoor air due to various processes including erosion (mechanically or weathering), diffusion (for tritium and radon in a volume source), or emanation (radon in a point, line, or area source). The release can proceed through different time phases with different rates. In RESRAD-BUILD Version 4.0, a dynamic ventilation model is implemented to simulate the fate and transport of source material particles and radionuclides after their releases. This dynamic ventilation model considers (1) air exchange between rooms in the building and between the rooms and the outdoor environment, (2) deposition from air to floor, (3) resuspension from the floor to the air, and (4) periodical vacuuming that reduces the floor deposition. The fate and transport modeling provides estimates of radionuclide concentrations in the source, in the air, and on the floor at different times, which are then integrated over the exposure duration for the calculation of radiation doses and cancer risks. A single run of the RESRAD-BUILD code can model a building with up to 9 rooms, 10 sources, and 10 receptors. The potential radiation dose and cancer risk incurred by each receptor are calculated for seven exposure pathways: (1) external radiation directly from the sources (accounting for shielding), (2) external radiation from radioactive particles deposited on the floors, (3) external radiation from airborne radionuclides, (4) inhalation of airborne radionuclides, (5) inhalation of radon and radon progenies, (6) inadvertent ingestion of radioactive particles directly from the source, and (7) ingestion of radioactive particles deposited on the floors. Various exposure scenarios can be modeled with RESRAD-BUILD, including but are not limited to, office worker, renovation worker, decontamination worker, building visitor, and resident. Both deterministic and probabilistic analyses can be performed to obtain results in both text reports and graphic displays.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Chapter 13: A Simple Estimation of UV Irradiance Under Clear-Sky Conditions

Accelerated aging tests are designed to estimate the useful life of products in their end-use environment. There is currently no simple way to answer the age-old question: “How long should I run my weathering test to reproduce 1 year of outdoor aging?” At the very least, there is need to (1) evaluate the acceleration rate associated with each stress factor and (2) estimate the intensity of the stress factors that the products under scrutiny are exposed to in natural aging. In this chapter, a model is introduced to calculate the ratio between ultraviolet (UV) irradiance and global horizontal irradiance (GHI). This method was empirically derived from measured or simulated irradiance data and validated against outdoor observations. This ratio provides a simple way to estimate the UV dose that samples are exposed to at any outdoor location.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,OTHER INSTRUM↗

Hanford Site Composite Analysis: Dose Sensitivity Analyses

This environmental calculation file (ECF) documents the methodologies, assumptions, and results of five analyses that evaluate parameter changes to the revised Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) (DOE-RL-2019-52, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau). Specifically, this ECF describes the impact on total dose and analyte-specific doses for five sensitivity cases where changes to the following exposure-related parameters were implemented – (1) inventory, (2) recharge rate, (3) external dose conversion factors (DCFs) based on Federal Guidance Report (FGR) No. 15 in (EPA-402-R-19-002, Federal Guidance Report No. 15, External Exposure to Radionuclides in Air, Water, and Soil) instead of FGR No. 12 (EPA 402-R-93-081, Federal Guidance Report No. 12, External Exposure to Radionuclides in Air, Water, and Soil) for groundwater pathway scenario; (4) use of mean instead of 95th percentile intake assumptions for groundwater pathway scenario; and (5) consideration of limited sources based on U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owned waste sites regulated under DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management. It should be noted that dose assessments for both base and sensitivity cases are based on the all-pathways representative person groundwater exposure scenario presented in DOE/RL-2022-52, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients: Impact of Particle Deposition in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Inhaled radioactive materials can pose a long-term health concern, as the material can be incorporated into the body’s metabolic pathways and remain in organs and tissues for extended durations. During the retention period, the radioactive material may localize in a source organ and irradiate adjacent target organs and tissues. Distribution of these materials changes over time, requiring biokinetic modeling to evaluate their movement through various tissues and organs. The evolving distribution depends on multiple inputs characterizing the inhaled material, such as particle size and size distribution, particle density, aspect ratio, specific radionuclide, the chemical form, and solubility. In addition, biological parameters such as breathing rate, breathing type (nasal or nasal/oral), respiratory system morphometry, tidal volume, functional residual capacity, and anatomical dead space all influence material transport. These aerosol properties and physiological characteristics of the respiratory tract jointly define a range of initial conditions that influence the time-dependent distribution of radioactive material. To evaluate both uncertainty in the initial conditions of inhalation exposure and the final output (committed effective dose) from biokinetic models, a Python-based software tool, Radiological Exposure Dose Calculator (REDCAL), was developed to propagate uncertainty within the human respiratory tract model. Focusing on deposition fraction uncertainty, the primary objective was to characterize the initial activity distribution across respiratory regions as a function of anticipated particle sizes and distributions. The impact of the deposition fraction uncertainty was propagated to committed effective dose coefficients for selected radionuclides in a companion publication. For each particle size, a lognormal distribution, characterized by its geometric mean as defined within ICRP Publication 66, serves as the basis for introducing uncertainty into the physical processes governing deposition in various lung regions. Finally, this study addresses the deposition process and examines how uncertainty in deposition mechanisms affects activity distribution in the airways, ultimately presenting the expected range and standard deviation of deposited activity as a function of particle size.

International Commission on Radiological Protectio↗

Optical fields in porous polylactide matrices

Optical fields induced by laser light inside porous polymer matrices (scaffolds) under stimulating effect on cells are investigated. The spectra of light scattering coefficients and anisotropy factors of porous polylactide scaffolds in the visible and near-IR ranges are determined by numerical simulation based on experimental data obtained using a double integrating sphere. Studies are conducted for dry and wet scaffolds fabricated by supercritical fluid foaming and surface-selective laser sintering. The Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the fluence rate distribution under the assumptions of the Henyey – Greenstein phase scattering function and the model phase function of scattering on spherical cavities. It is shown that th e fluence rate distribution mainly depends on the scattering coefficient and the mean cosine of the deflection angle (g-factor). The results obtained are of great practical importance for tissue engineering based on the use of polymeric porous scaffolds with cells to replace tissue defects; they can be used to determine the dose range for laser stimulation of cells. (paper)

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dislocation loop evolution in Kr-irradiated ThO 2

Here, the early stage of microstructural evolution of ThO 2 , under krypton irradiation at 600, 800, and 1000°C, was investigated using in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Dislocation loops grew faster, whereas their number density decreased with increasing irradiation temperature. Loop density was found to decrease with ion dose. Interstitial dislocation loops, including Frank loops with Burgers vector of $\textit{a}/3\langle111\rangle$ and perfect loops with Burgers vector of $\textit{a}/2\langle110\rangle$, were determined by traditional TEM and atomic resolution–scanning TEM techniques. Atomistic and mesoscale level modeling are performed to interpret experimental observations. The migration energy barriers of defects in ThO 2 were calculated using density-functional theory. The energetics of different dislocation loop types were studied using molecular dynamics simulations. Loop density and diameter were analyzed using a kinetic rate theory model that considers stoichiometric loop evolution. This analysis reveals that loop growth is governed by the mobility of cation interstitials, whereas loop nucleation is determined by the mobility of anion defects. Lastly, a rate theory model was used to extract the diffusion coefficients of thorium interstitials, oxygen interstitials, and vacancies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Upscaling X-ray nanoimaging to macroscopic specimens

Upscaling X-ray nanoimaging to macroscopic specimens has the potential for providing insights across multiple length scales, but its feasibility has long been an open question. By combining the imaging requirements and existing proof-of-principle examples in large-specimen preparation, data acquisition and reconstruction algorithms, the authors provide imaging time estimates for howX-ray nanoimaging can be scaled to macroscopic specimens. To arrive at this estimate, a phase contrast imaging model that includes plural scattering effects is used to calculate the required exposure and corresponding radiation dose. The coherent X-ray flux anticipated from upcoming diffraction-limited light sources is then considered. This imaging time estimation is in particular applied to the case of the connectomes of whole mouse brains. To image the connectome of the whole mouse brain, electron microscopy connectomics might require years, whereas optimized X-ray microscopy connectomics could reduce this to one week. Furthermore, this analysis points to challenges that need to be overcome (such as increased X-ray detector frame rate) and opportunities that advances in artificial-intelligence-based `smart' scanning might provide. While the technical advances required are daunting, it is shown that X-ray microscopy is indeed potentially applicable to nanoimaging of millimetre- or even centimetre-size specimens.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Megahertz pulse trains enable multi-hit serial femtosecond crystallography experiments at X-ray free electron lasers

The European X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL) and Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) II are extremely intense sources of X-rays capable of generating Serial Femtosecond Crystallography (SFX) data at megahertz (MHz) repetition rates. Previous work has shown that it is possible to use consecutive X-ray pulses to collect diffraction patterns from individual crystals. Here, we exploit the MHz pulse structure of the European XFEL to obtain two complete datasets from the same lysozyme crystal, first hit and the second hit, before it exits the beam. The two datasets, separated by <1 µs, yield up to 2.1 Å resolution structures. Comparisons between the two structures reveal no indications of radiation damage or significant changes within the active site, consistent with the calculated dose estimates. This demonstrates MHz SFX can be used as a tool for tracking sub-microsecond structural changes in individual single crystals, a technique we refer to as multi-hit SFX.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

False Indications of Dose-Response Nonlinearity in Large Epidemiologic Cancer Radiation Cohort Studies; A Simulation Exercise

This study explores the likely prevalence of false indications of dose-response nonlinearity in large epidemiologic cancer radiation cohort studies (A-bomb survivors, INWORKS, Techa River). Reasons: Increasing numbers of tests of nonlinearity are being made in studies. Hypothesized nonlinear dose-response models have been justified to policy makers by analyses that rely in part on isolated findings that could be statistical fluctuations. After removing dose nonlinearity (linearization) by adjusting person-years of observation at each dose category, indications of nonlinearity, necessarily false, were counted in 5,000 randomized replications of six datasets. The average frequency of any false positive for five indicators of nonlinearity tested against a linear null was roughly 25% in Monte Carlo simulations per study, consistent with binomial calculations, increasing to ~50% within 6 studies assessed. Comparable frequencies were found using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection or multi-model averaging. False above-zero threshold doses were found more than 50% of the time, averaging to 0.05 Gy, consistent with findings in the 6 studies. Such bias, uncorrected, could distort meta-analyses of multiple studies, because meta-analyses can incorporate high P value findings. AIC-based correction for the extra threshold parameter lowered these false occurrences to 8 to 19%. Given the simulation rates, the possibility of false positives might be noted when isolated findings of nonlinearity are discussed in a regulatory context. When reporting a threshold dose with a P value > 0.05, it would be informative to note the expected high false prevalence rate due to bias.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗