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At least 127 records · Page 7

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo

Large-scale computations in fluid mechanics; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Summer Seminar on Applied Mathematics, University of California, La Jolla, CA, June 27-July 8, 1983. Parts 1 & 2

Papers are presented on such topics as the use of semi-Lagrangian advective schemes in meteorological modeling; computation with high-resolution upwind schemes for hyperbolic equations; dynamics of flame propagation in a turbulent field; a modified finite element method for solving the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations; computational fusion magnetohydrodynamics; and a nonoscillatory shock capturing scheme using flux-limited dissipation. Consideration is also given to the use of spectral techniques in numerical weather prediction; numerical methods for the incorporation of mountains in atmospheric models; techniques for the numerical simulation of large-scale eddies in geophysical fluid dynamics; high-resolution TVD schemes using flux limiters; upwind-difference methods for aerodynamic problems governed by the Euler equations; and an MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere.

Engquist, B. E.

NAS (Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation Program) technical summaries, March 1989 - February 1990

Given here are selected scientific results from the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation (NAS) Program's third year of operation. During this year, the scientific community was given access to a Cray-2 and a Cray Y-MP supercomputer. Topics covered include flow field analysis of fighter wing configurations, large-scale ocean modeling, the Space Shuttle flow field, advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes for rotary-wing airloads and performance prediction, turbulence modeling of separated flows, airloads and acoustics of rotorcraft, vortex-induced nonlinearities on submarines, and standing oblique detonation waves.

Source record

Fluid mechanics phenomena in microgravity; ASME Winter Annual Meeting, Anaheim, CA, Nov. 8-13, 1992

This paper is the first in a series of symposia presenting research activity in microgravity fluid mechanics. General topics addressed include two-phase flow and transport phenomena, thermo-capillary flow, and interfacial stability. Papers present mathmatical models of fluid dynamics in the microgravity environment. Applications suggested include space manufacturing and storage of liquids in low gravity.

Siginer, Dennis A.

A high-resolution OGCM simulation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Part I: Long equatorial waves

A high resolution oceanic general circulation model of the three topical oceans is used to investigate long equatorial wave activity in the Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Zonal wind stress forcing and simulated dynamic height are interpreted using techniques previously applied to data. Kelvin and first Rossby waves are observed propagating during all the period. A seasonal cycle and interannual anomalies are computed for each long equatorial wave. The east Pacific basin is mainly dominated by seasonal cycle variations while strong interannual anomalies are observed west of the dateline. Long wave interannual anomalies are then compared to wave coefficients simulated by a simple wind-forced model. Our results outline the major role played by wind forcing on interannual time scales in generating long equatorial waves. However, near both eastern and western boundaries, some differences can be attributed to long wave reflections. A comparison to wave coefficients calculated from GEOSAT sea-level data gives some insight of the model behavior.

Long Equatorial Waves

Tenth NASTRAN User's Colloquium

The development of the NASTRAN computer program, a general purpose finite element computer code for structural analysis, was discussed. The application and development of NASTRAN is presented in the following topics: improvements and enhancements; developments of pre and postprocessors; interactive review system; the use of harmonic expansions in magnetic field problems; improving a dynamic model with test data using Linwood; solution of axisymmetric fluid structure interaction problems; large displacements and stability analysis of nonlinear propeller structures; prediction of bead area contact load at the tire wheel interface; elastic plastic analysis of an overloaded breech ring; finite element solution of torsion and other 2-D Poisson equations; new capability for elastic aircraft airloads; usage of substructuring analysis in the get away special program; solving symmetric structures with nonsymmetric loads; evaluation and reduction of errors induced by Guyan transformation.

Source record

Development of Advanced Computational Aeroelasticity Tools at NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Langley Research Center has continued to develop its long standing computational tools to address new challenges in aircraft and launch vehicle design. This paper discusses the application and development of those computational aeroelastic tools. Four topic areas will be discussed: 1) Modeling structural and flow field nonlinearities; 2) Integrated and modular approaches to nonlinear multidisciplinary analysis; 3) Simulating flight dynamics of flexible vehicles; and 4) Applications that support both aeronautics and space exploration.

Bartels, R. E.

Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons from the 2015-16 El Nino

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Ott, L.

Studies of vortex dominated flows; Proceedings of the Symposium, Hampton, VA, July 9-11, 1985

Papers are presented on waves and bifurcations in vortex filaments, a ring-vortex representation of an axisymmetric vortex sheet, and comparison of experiment with the dynamics of the von Karman vortex trail. Also considered are force-free and loss-free transitions between vortex flow states, a vortex breakdown simulation based on a nonlinear inviscid method, and the prediction of highly vortical flows using an Euler equation model. Other topics include the theory of high-Reynolds-number flow past a blunt body, progress on the calculation of large-scale separation at high Reynolds numbers, and viscous-inviscid interaction solvers and computation of highly separated flows. Papers are also presented on simulation studies of vortex dynamics of a leading edge vortex flap, methods for numerical simulation of leading edge vortex flow, and comparison of measured and computed pitot pressures in a leading edge vortex from a delta wing.

Hussaini, M. Y.

Magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas; Proceedings of the Ninth Symposium and Topical Meeting, Graz, Austria, June 25-July 7, 1984

Papers are presented on the physics of the magnetosphere-ionosphere connection, with attention given to theory and modeling, auroras, plasma dynamics and irregularities, waves and electron beams, the dynamics of the thermosphere, and planetary plasmas. Plasma circulation in the magnetosphere is also discussed; consideration is given to observations of magnetospheric convection from low altitudes, the structure and properties of the earth's plasmasphere, and the circulation of energetic ions of terrestrial origin in the magnetosphere.

Schmerling, E. R.

Analysis of Smart Composite Structures Including Debonding

Smart composite structures with distributed sensors and actuators have the capability to actively respond to a changing environment while offering significant weight savings and additional passive controllability through ply tailoring. Piezoelectric sensing and actuation of composite laminates is the most promising concept due to the static and dynamic control capabilities. Essential to the implementation of these smart composites are the development of accurate and efficient modeling techniques and experimental validation. This research addresses each of these important topics. A refined higher order theory is developed to model composite structures with surface bonded or embedded piezoelectric transducers. These transducers are used as both sensors and actuators for closed loop control. The theory accurately captures the transverse shear deformation through the thickness of the smart composite laminate while satisfying stress free boundary conditions on the free surfaces. The theory is extended to include the effect of debonding at the actuator-laminate interface. The developed analytical model is implemented using the finite element method utilizing an induced strain approach for computational efficiency. This allows general laminate geometries and boundary conditions to be analyzed. The state space control equations are developed to allow flexibility in the design of the control system. Circuit concepts are also discussed. Static and dynamic results of smart composite structures, obtained using the higher order theory, are correlated with available analytical data. Comparisons, including debonded laminates, are also made with a general purpose finite element code and available experimental data. Overall, very good agreement is observed. Convergence of the finite element implementation of the higher order theory is shown with exact solutions. Additional results demonstrate the utility of the developed theory to study piezoelectric actuation of composite laminates with pre-existing debonding. Significant changes in the modes shapes and reductions in the control authority result due to partially debonded actuators. An experimental investigation addresses practical issues, such as circuit design and implementation, associated with piezoelectric sensing and actuation of composite laminates. Composite specimens with piezoelectric transducers were designed, constructed and tested to validate the higher order theory. These specimens were tested with various stacking sequences, debonding lengths and gains for both open and closed loop cases. Frequency changes of 15% and damping on the order of more than 20% of critical damping, via closed loop control, was achieved. Correlation with the higher order theory is very good. Debonding is shown to adversely affect the open and closed loop frequencies, damping ratios, settling time and control authority.

Chattopadhyay, Aditi

Understanding Group/Party Affiliation Using Social Networks and Agent-Based Modeling

The dynamics of group affiliation and group dispersion is a concept that is most often studied in order for political candidates to better understand the most efficient way to conduct their campaigns. While political campaigning in the United States is a very hot topic that most politicians analyze and study, the concept of group/party affiliation presents its own area of study that producers very interesting results. One tool for examining party affiliation on a large scale is agent-based modeling (ABM), a paradigm in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field perfectly suited for aggregating individual behaviors to observe large swaths of a population. For this study agent based modeling was used in order to look at a community of agents and determine what factors can affect the group/party affiliation patterns that are present. In the agent-based model that was used for this experiment many factors were present but two main factors were used to determine the results. The results of this study show that it is possible to use agent-based modeling to explore group/party affiliation and construct a model that can mimic real world events. More importantly, the model in the study allows for the results found in a smaller community to be translated into larger experiments to determine if the results will remain present on a much larger scale.

Campbell, Kenyth

Assessment of aerodynamic and dynamic models in a comprehensive analysis

The history, status, and lessons of a comprehensive analysis for rotorcraft are reviewed. The development, features, and capabilities of the analysis are summarized, including the aerodynamic and dynamic models that were used. Examples of correlation of the computational results with experimental data are given, extensions of the analysis for research in several topics of helicopter technology are discussed, and the experiences of outside users are summarized. Finally, the required capabilities and approach for the next comprehensive analysis are described.

Johnson, W.

Tether Dynamics Simulation Workshop summary

The Tether Dynamics Simulation Workshop focused on the efforts of the Tether Applications Simulation Working Group (TASWG) to catalog various dynamics simulations, document environmental models, and provide a set of verified simulation results. The workshop consisted of reports on these activities and the presentation of papers on current dynamics topics of general interest. This paper documents the work performed at the Workshop and the results and recommendations for further work.

Rupp, Charles C.

Middeck 0-gravity Dynamics Experiment (MODE)

Viewgraphs on Middeck 0-gravity Dynamics Experiment (MODE) are presented. Topics covered include: MODE and its rationale; program objectives; truss structures; contained fluids; experimental design for structures and contained fluids; modeling approach; and progress to date.

Vanschoor, Marthinus C.

Autonomous rendezvous and docking for Space Station Freedom

Viewgraphs on autonomous rendezvous and docking (AR&D) for Space Station Freedom are presented. Topics covered include: requirements for AR&D experience; Comet spacecraft performance; AR&D mission profile; analytical models for approach trajectory, loosely coupled configuration, and contact dynamics; and application to space infrastructure.

Garrison, James L., Jr.

ICASE/LaRC Symposium on Visualizing Time-Varying Data

Time-varying datasets present difficult problems for both analysis and visualization. For example, the data may be terabytes in size, distributed across mass storage systems at several sites, with time scales ranging from femtoseconds to eons. In response to these challenges, ICASE and NASA Langley Research Center, in cooperation with ACM SIGGRAPH, organized the first symposium on visualizing time-varying data. The purpose was to bring the producers of time-varying data together with visualization specialists to assess open issues in the field, present new solutions, and encourage collaborative problem-solving. These proceedings contain the peer-reviewed papers which were presented at the symposium. They cover a broad range of topics, from methods for modeling and compressing data to systems for visualizing CFD simulations and World Wide Web traffic. Because the subject matter is inherently dynamic, a paper proceedings cannot adequately convey all aspects of the work. The accompanying video proceedings provide additional context for several of the papers.

Banks, D. C.