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Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AIRS Data Subsetting Service at the Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) DISC/DAAC

The AIRS mission, as a combination of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB), brings climate research and weather prediction into 21st century. From NASA' Aqua spacecraft, the AIRS/AMSU/HSB instruments measure humidity, temperature, cloud properties and the amounts of greenhouse gases. The AIRS also reveals land and sea- surface temperatures. Measurements from these three instruments are analyzed . jointly to filter out the effects of clouds from the IR data in order to derive clear-column air-temperature profiles and surface temperatures with high vertical resolution and accuracy. Together, they constitute an advanced operational sounding data system that have contributed to improve global modeling efforts and numerical weather prediction; enhance studies of the global energy and water cycles, the effects of greenhouse gases, and atmosphere-surface interactions; and facilitate monitoring of climate variations and trends. The high data volume generated by the AIRS/AMSU/HSB instruments and the complexity of its data format (Hierarchical Data Format, HDF) are barriers to AIRS data use. Although many researchers are interested in only a fraction of the data they receive or request, they are forced to run their algorithms on a much larger data set to extract the information of interest. In order to better server its users, the GES DISC/DAAC, provider of long-term archives and distribution services as well science support for the AIRS/AMSU/HSB data products, has developed various tools for performing channels, variables, parameter, spatial and derived products subsetting, resampling and reformatting operations. This presentation mainly describes the web-enabled subsetting services currently available at the GES DISC/DAAC that provide subsetting functions for all the Level 1B and Level 2 data products from the AIRS/AMSU/HSB instruments.

Vicente, Gilberto A.↗

Contents of the NASA ocean data system archive, version 11-90

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ocean Data System (NODS) archive at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) includes satellite data sets for the ocean sciences and global-change research to facilitate multidisciplinary use of satellite ocean data. Parameters include sea-surface height, surface-wind vector, sea-surface temperature, atmospheric liquid water, and surface pigment concentration. NODS will become the Data Archive and Distribution Service of the JPL Distributed Active Archive Center for the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) and will be the United States distribution site for Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/POSEIDON data and metadata.

Smith, Elizabeth A.↗

The Pascal Mars Scout Mission

Except for Earth, Mars is the planet most amenable to surface-based climate studies. Its surface is accessible, and the kind of observations that are needed, such as meteorological measurements from a long-lived global network, are readily achievable. Weather controls the movement of dust, the exchange of water between the surface and atmosphere, and the cycling of CO2 between the poles. We know there is a weather signal, we know how to measure it, and we know how to interpret it. Pascal seeks to understand the long-term global behavior of near-surface weather systems on Mars, how they interact with its surface, and, therefore, how they control its climate system. To achieve this, Pascal delivers 18 Science Stations to the surface of the planet that operate for three Mars years (5.6 Earth years). The network has stations operating in the tropics, midlatitudes, and polar regions of both hemispheres. During entry, descent, and landing, each Pascal probe acquires deceleration measurements to determine thermal structure, and descent images to characterize local terrain. On the surface, each Science Station takes daily measurements of pressure, opacity, temperature, wind speed, and water vapor concentration and monthly panoramic images of the landing environment. These data will characterize the planet's climate system and how atmosphere-surface interactions control it. The Pascal mission is named after 17th century French Scientist, Blaise Pascal, who pioneered measurements of atmospheric pressure. Pressure is the most critical measurement because it records the "heartbeat" of the planet's general circulation and climate system.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Exploration of Venus' Deep Atmosphere and Surface Environment

Venus formed in the same part of our solar system as Earth, apparently from similar materials. Although both planets are about the same size, their differences are profound. Venus and Earth experienced vastly different evolutionary pathways resulting in unexplained differences in atmospheric composition and dynamics, as well as in geophysical processes of the planetary surfaces and interiors. Understanding when and why the evolutionary pathways of Venus and Earth diverged is key to understanding how terrestrial planets form and how their atmospheres and surfaces evolve. Measurements made in situ, within the near-surface or surface environment, are critical to addressing unanswered questions. We have made substantial progress modernizing and maturing pressure vessel technologies to enable science operations in the high temperature and pressure near-surface/surfaceenvironment of Venus.

Venus Atmosphere↗

In situ X-ray and IR probes relevant to Earth science at the Advanced Light Source at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

Access to synchrotron X-ray facilities has become an important aspect for many disciplines in experimental Earth science. This is especially important for studies that rely on probing samples in situ under natural conditions different from the ones found at the surface of the Earth. The non-ambient condition Earth science program at the Advanced Light Source (ALS), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, offers a variety of tools utilizing the infra-red and hard X-ray spectrum that allow Earth scientists to probe Earth and environmental materials at variable conditions of pressure, stress, temperature, atmospheric composition, and humidity. These facilities are important tools for the user community in that they offer not only considerable capacity (non-ambient condition diffraction) but also complementary (IR spectroscopy, microtomography), and in some cases unique (Laue microdiffraction) instruments. The availability of the ALS’ in situ probes to the Earth science community grows especially critical during the ongoing dark time of the Advanced Photon Source in Chicago, which massively reduces available in situ synchrotron user time in North America.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seasat--A 25-Year Legacy of Success

Thousands of scientific publications and dozens of textbooks include data from instruments derived from NASA's Seasat. The Seasat mission was launched on June 26, 1978, on an Atlas-Agena rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base. It was the first Earth-orbiting satellite to carry four complementary microwave experiments--the Radar Altimeter (ALT) to measure ocean surface topography by measuring spacecraft altitude above the ocean surface; the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS), to measure wind speed and direction over the ocean; the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) to measure surface wind speed, ocean surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor content, rain rate, and ice coverage; and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), to image the ocean surface, polar ice caps, and coastal regions. While originally designed for remote sensing of the Earth's oceans, the legacy of Seasat has had a profound impact in many other areas including solid earth science, hydrology, ecology and planetary science.

Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer↗

How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqia$\mathrm{\dot{g}}$vik, Alaska?

Humidity is a basic and crucial meteorological indicator commonly measured in several forms, including specific humidity, relative humidity, and absolute humidity. These different forms can be inter-derived based on the saturation vapor pressure (SVP). In past decades, dozens of formulae have been developed to calculate the SVP with respect to, and in equilibrium with, liquid water and solid ice surfaces, but many prior studies use a single function for all temperature ranges, without considering the distinction between over the liquid water and ice surfaces. These different approaches can result in humidity estimates that may impact our understanding of surface-subsurface thermal-hydrological dynamics in cold regions. In this study, we compared the relative humidity (RH) downloaded and calculated from four data sources in Alaska based on five commonly used SVP formulas. These RHs, along with other meteorological indicators, were then used to drive physics-rich land surface models at a permafrost-affected site. Here, we found that higher values of RH (up to 40%) were obtained if the SVP was calculated with the over-ice formulation when air temperatures were below freezing, which could lead to a 30% maximum difference in snow depths. The choice of whether to separately calculate the SVP over an ice surface in winter also produced a significant range (up to 0.2 m) in simulated annual maximum thaw depths. The sensitivity of seasonal thaw depth to the formulation of SVP increases with the rainfall rate and the height of above-ground ponded water, while it diminishes with warmer air temperatures. These results show that RH variations based on the calculation of SVP with or without over-ice calculation meaningfully impact physically-based predictions of snow depth, sublimation, soil temperature, and active layer thickness. Under particular conditions, when severe flooding (inundation) and cool air temperatures are present, care should be taken to evaluate how humidity data is estimated for land surface and earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Band On-Orbit Calibration, Characterization, and Performance

The NASA's Earth Observing System Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has continued to operate with satisfactory performance since its launch in May 2002, exceeding its nominal six-year design lifetime. Its continuous Earth observations have been used to generate many science data products for studies of the Earth's, system. MODIS has 36 spectral bands; 20 reflective solar bands and 16 thermal emissive bands (TEBs). All TEB observations are made at 1-km nadir spatial resolution with spectral wavelengths from 3.7 to 14.4 pm. Primary applications of MODIS TEB 'include surface, cloud, and atmospheric temperatures, water vapor, and cloud top altitude. MODIS TEB on-orbit calibration uses a quadratic algorithm with its calibration coefficients derived using an onboard blackbody (BB). This paper will present Aqua MODIS TEB on-orbit calibration, characterization, and performance over its six-year mission. Examples of instrument thermal behavior, BB temperature stability, detector short-term stability, and changes in long-term response (or system gain) will be presented. Comparisons will also be made with Terra MODIS, launched in December 1999. On-orbit results show that Aqua MODIS and its focal plane temperatures have behaved normally. BB temperature has remained extremely stable with typical scan -to-scan variations of less than +/-0.15 mK. Most TEB detectors continue to exceed their specified signal-to-noise ratio requirements, exhibiting excellent short-term stability and calibration accuracy. Excluding a few noisy detectors, either identified prelaunch or occurring postlaunch, on-orbit changes in TEB responses have been less than 0.5% on an annual basis. By comparison; the overall Aqua TEB performance has been better than that of Terra MODIS,

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

The Unexpected Oceanic Peak in Energy Input to the Atmosphere and Its Consequences for Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Monsoons have historically been understood to be caused by the low thermal inertia of land, allowing more energy from summer insolation to be transferred to the overlying atmosphere than over adjacent ocean. Here, we show that during boreal summer, the global maximum net energy input (NEI) to the atmosphere unexpectedly lies over the Indian Ocean, not over land. Observed radiative fluxes suggest that cloud‐radiative effects (CRE) almost double the NEI over ocean, shifting the NEI peak from land to ocean. Global climate model experiments with both land and interactive sea surface temperatures confirm that CRE create the oceanic NEI maximum. Interactions between CRE, NEI, circulation, and land‐sea contrast in surface heat capacity shift precipitation from Southeast to South Asia. CRE thus alter the global partitioning of precipitation between land and ocean and the spatial structure of Earth's strongest monsoon, in ways that can be understood through the NEI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Harmful Algal Bloom Mapping System (HABMapS) and Bulletin

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) Mapping System and Bulletin provide a Web-based geographic information system (GIS) and an e-mail alert system that allow the detection, monitoring, and tracking of HABs in the Gulf of Mexico. NASA Earth Science data that potentially support HABMapS/Bulletin requirements include ocean color, sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, wind fields, precipitation, water surface elevation, and ocean currents. Modeling contributions include ocean circulation, wave/currents, along-shore current regimes, and chlorophyll modeling (coupled to imagery). The most immediately useful NASA contributions appear to be the 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) chlorophyll and SST products and the (presently used) SeaWinds wind vector data. MODIS pigment concentration and SST data are sufficiently mature to replace imagery currently used in NOAA HAB applications. The large file size of MODIS data is an impediment to NOAA use and modified processing schemes would aid in NOAA adoption of these products for operational HAB forecasting.

Hall, Callie↗

The sensitivity of a general circulation model to Saharan dust heating

Evidence is accumulating that tropospheric aerosols, such as Saharan dust, can significantly influence weather and climate. The Climate Model of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences is presently used to assess the possible effects of Saharan dust on the weather and climate of North Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The three-dimensional model solves the conservation equations for the horizontal wind vector, potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and surface pressure. Parameterizations are included for turbulent exchange at the earth surface, cumulus convection, large scale saturation, diurnally varying solar radiation, and terrestrial radiation. Realistic simulations are thereby produced for many aspects of the observed climate.

Randall, D.↗

Carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane soil efflux (soil respiration) in a Pinus palustris root exclusion in Georgetown, SC

This dataset contains processed data from a combination of survey flux chambers and long-term automated flux chambers. Soil flux measurements were conducted from June 2023 through December 2025 in a mature longleaf pine forest in Georgetown, SC. Soil respiration measurements were conducted approximately biweekly for two and a half years, before and after a root exclusion that took place on May 5, 2024. Processed, QAQC’d data for the treatment (root exclusion) and control (roots intact) before and after the root exclusion can be found in the file: 1_DATA_ESS_DOE_HR_RS_HB2_QAQC_Survey_Data_20260223.csv. Two multiday deployments were also conducted prior to the root exclusion using long-term automated chambers to continuously monitor greenhouse gas soil efflux. Processed, QAQC’d data for both long-term deployments can be found in the file: 2_DATA_ESS_DOE_HR_RS_HB2_QAQC_Longterm_Data_20260209.csv. Raw and working data files (.json, .81x, & .82z format) from LI-COR equipment are included for reference and can be accessed using SoilFluxPro software. CSV metadata files describe the raw data and modifications made using SoilFluxPro v5 and Matlab R2024b, as well as formatting and units for processed CSVs. Matlab code is included for reading in the processed CSVs, with sample figures comparing treatment and control. This research was performed as part of the project: “Improving models of stand and watershed carbon and water fluxes with more accurate representations of soil-plant-water dynamics in southern pine ecosystems”, which examines in part the effects hydraulic redistribution on soil efflux of carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, as well as soil moisture and temperature in a southern pine ecosystem with sandy soils and high water table.

CARBON DIOXIDE FLUX↗

Carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane soil efflux (soil respiration) in a Pinus palustris restoration site in Georgetown, SC

This dataset contains processed data from a combination of survey flux chambers and long-term automated flux chambers. Biweekly soil flux measurements were conducted from June 2023 through December 2025 at a longleaf pine restoration site in Georgetown, SC. Processed, QAQC’d data can be found in the file: 1_DATA_ESS_DOE_HR_RS_HB3_QAQC_Survey_Data_20260223.csv. Raw and working data files (.json, & .81x format) from LI-COR equipment are included for reference and can be accessed using SoilFluxPro software. CSV metadata files describe the raw data and modifications made using SoilFluxPro v5 and Matlab R2024b, as well as formatting and units for processed CSVs. Matlab code is included for reading in the processed CSVs. This research was performed as part of the project: “Improving models of stand and watershed carbon and water fluxes with more accurate representations of soil-plant-water dynamics in southern pine ecosystems”, which examines in part the effects hydraulic redistribution on soil efflux of carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, as well as soil moisture and temperature in a southern pine ecosystem with sandy soils and high water table.

CARBON DIOXIDE FLUX↗

On the Importance of Laboratory Astrophysics and Astrochemistry and Interdisciplinary Research: Two Success Stories

Here we present two examples that demonstrate how cross-disciplinary research projects, where experimentalists, modelers and observers work together to answer science questions, allow expertise to be shared and misconceptions or missing key elements to be tackled by looking at the problem from different perspectives. They also show how, by working in unison, the group can accomplish more than the sum of its parts by combining results into a higher-level understanding of the chemical processes taking place. The first project is a collaborative study between experimentalists, modelers and observers to1) produce laboratory analogs of cosmic grains and planetary aerosols (Titan, Pluto...) from different gas mixtures in cold astrophysically relevant conditions (<200 K); and 2) characterize them with scanning electron microscopy and visible-to-far-infrared spectroscopy in order to assess the impact of the precursors on their growth structure and optical properties. We can then produce and study analogs that are representative of different formation stages or environments, and provide their complex refractive indices to the scientific community. We will show how, by using these experimental optical constants of more representative analogs in radiative transfer and reflectance spectra models, better interpretations of (exo)planetary atmosphere- and surface observations are possible. The second project is an interdisciplinary study of the formation of benzene clouds in the atmosphere of Saturn’s largest moon, Titan. We will show how combining Earth and Planetary Science laboratory expertise, modeling and observations has led to providing to the scientific community, for the first time, experimental vapor pressures for benzene at cold temperatures(<200K) relevant to Titan’s atmospheric conditions. These have been used in microphysical models instead of the higher temperature extrapolations used previously, allowing a better match to observations.

Ella Sciamma-o'Brien↗

User Guide for TROPICS Data Products

This document provides information for using the data products available from the “Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats” (TROPICS) mission. The TROPICS mission will produce a range of data products that will be available at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The data products will be produced at the TROPICS Data Processing Center (UW-M SSEC), and consist of Level-1 radiances (antenna and brightness temperatures), Level-2a unified resolution radiance, Level-2b Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Profiles (AVTP), Level-2b Atmospheric Vertical Moisture Profiles (AVMP), Level-2b Instantaneous Surface Rain Rate (ISRR), and Level-2b Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity algorithms to estimate two primary variables: Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustained Winds (MSW). Two independent intensity estimation methods are included: 1) the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimate algorithm (TCIE) developed at the University of Wisconsin/CIMSS using native microwave brightness temperatures and 2) the Hurricane Intensity and Structure Algorithm (HISA) developed at Colorado State University/CIRA using microwave retrievals of temperature, moisture, and integrated quantities. In addition to MSW and MSLP, HISA also provides estimates of surface wind radii and 2D winds at standard pressure levels. TROPICS is adapting the NOAA STAR Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) to retrieve the AVTP and AVMP data products. The ISRR algorithm uses the NASA Goddard Precipitation Retrieval and Profiling Scheme (PRPS).

TROPICS↗

Data catalog for JPL Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC)

The Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) archive at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory contains satellite data sets and ancillary in-situ data for the ocean sciences and global-change research to facilitate multidisciplinary use of satellite ocean data. Geophysical parameters available from the archive include sea-surface height, surface-wind vector, surface-wind speed, surface-wind stress vector, sea-surface temperature, atmospheric liquid water, integrated water vapor, phytoplankton pigment concentration, heat flux, and in-situ data. PO.DAAC is an element of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System and is the United States distribution site for TOPEX/POSEIDON data and metadata.

Digby, Susan↗

Duke Forest FACE (FACTS-I): Plant and Soil Response Data

This dataset describing the responses of plant and soil pools and fluxes to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and increased nitrogen supply was collected from Duke Forest Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) – Forest-Atmosphere Carbon Transfer and Storage (FACTS-I) experiment from 1996 to 2012. The dataset includes data files for allometry (diameter at breast height, tree height, and height to live crown base), leaf area index, biomass (stem, branch, foliage, and root biomass, tree density, and basal area), net primary productivity (stem, branch, foliage, reproductive, and coarse root NPP), sap flux density, soil CO2 efflux, and stem temperature. Data files were formatted as .csv (Microsoft Excel or other spreadsheet programs can be used to read the format) and file descriptions, including variable name, unit, and data range, can be found in ‘FileDescription_[data_name].txt’ files. The Duke FACE experiment was in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation established in 1983. Naturally regenerated broadleaved species including sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.) and tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), mostly in the overstory, and winged elm (Ulmus alata Michx.) and red maple (Acer rubrum L.) were common in the understory. The FACE experiment commenced with two plots (plots 7-8) in 1994 (Oren et al. 2001), with six additional plots (plots 1-6) coming online on 27 August 1996. CO2 enrichment was terminated on 31 October 2010 and post-enrichment data collection continued through 2012. Complete fertilization was applied annually to half of plots 7-8 from 1998 to 2004. The nutrient addition experiment expanded to half of plots 1-6 with a common protocol of N-fertilization in 2005 and continued until 2012. The levels of treatment in this dataset were expressed as ambient CO2 (AMB) or elevated CO2 (ELE) for CO2 treatment and control soil (CONT) or fertilized soil (FERT) for N treatment, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗