SEARCH · Search NASA
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
The relationship between length of day (LOD) variations and the Southern Oscillation (SO), and with the associated El Nino phenomenon, is studied. Interannual changes in the LOD are shown to be linearly related to a SO sea level pressure index. A possible physical mechanism for this relationship is the thermal winds caused by changes in the equator to pole heat transports associated with El Nino events and the SO.
Stratospheric aerosols collected over the western U.S. from late 1982 to early 1984 show the strong effects of El Chichon's eruption. Although mineral particles disappeared during this period, large acid droplets were still common. Because these have never been seen in prevolcanic, background-level collections, they apparently result from increased droplet growth made possible by the unusual abundance of sulfate. Aerosol size distributions show a wide variety of multimodal curves due to mixing of air masses containing aerosols of various ages or histories. Toward the end of the study time there are fewer large aerosols because of gravitational settling and poleward transport. The result is a steady reduction in sulfate, as most aerosol mass is concentrated in a small number of large droplets. Even the later sulfate levels are, however, five times typical prevolcanic background contents. Thus the influence of El Chichon on high-altitude was still considerable 22 months after eruption.
Using data collected by SMMR on board the Nimbus 7 satellite, estimates of atmospheric water vapor were obtained over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1982-1983 El Nino. A parameterization that physically relates the synoptic and convective scales was employed, making it possible to explicitly resolve convective elements and rain cells for poorly resolvable measurements. The derived water vapor flux convergences were analyzed during the El Nino episode to map the inferred deep convection and estimated rainfall over regions impacted by the event, and the inferred monthly rainfall amounts were compared with observations for 14 island and coastal stations in the Pacific Ocean.
The results of ozone observations at northern midlatitudes in late 1982 through 1983, following the eruption of El Chichon are discussed, together with the observations of other trace gases which may be linked to possible variations in ozone chemistry. These results are related to the in situ aerosol observations following the El Chicon eruption, with particular attention given to data relevant to heterogeneous reactions, such as the aerosol surface area and weight percent H2SO4. It is shown that, at midlatitudes, the observed volcanic-particle surface area reached a maximum of about 50 sq microns/cu m (above a typical background value of about 0.75) at an altitude of 18-20 km in early 1983; this enhancement of surface area is about the same as that encountered in stratospheric clouds in the Antarctic, suggesting a possible basis for ozone depletion through heterogeneous chemistry. The fraction of ozone reduction that may have occurred as a result of heterogeneous chemicl effects is estimated.
Previous investigations of the effects of the 1982 eruption of the El Chichon volcano could not explain all the observations of changes in O3, HCl, NO and NO2 simultaneously without proposing unproven chemical reactions. Since reactions between solid NaCl and gaseous ClNO3 and N2O5 rapidly produce photochemically active chlorine species and solid NaNO3 in laboratory experiments, it is suggested that these reactions could have occurred with the NaCl observed to be present in the El Chichon sulfuric acid areosols. As a consequence, it is predicted that HCl should increase substantially, while NO(x) should decrease, in agreement with the measurements after the eruption. Ozone should be only slightly affected by these reactions. Reactions between solid NaCl and the acids H2SO4 and HNO3 might prove to be important, but sufficient evidence regarding their efficiency and the pressure of HNO3 in the aerosols is lacking.
Stratospheric aerosol collections by wire impactors, taken mainly over the western U.S. from early 1984 to late 1986, show the diminishing effects of El Chichon's 1982 eruption, and provide a set of data for judging subsequent volcanic effects. Decrease in sulfate burden during the study time is due to preferential gravitational settling-out of large (above 0.5-micron diameter) sulfate aerosol droplets. As a result of settling from higher levels, lower altitude (12.2-15.2 km) air early in 1984 tends to contain more sulfate than higher level (19.8-21.3 km) air. As of late 1986, however, high- and low-altitude sulfate contents have decreased and are similar, suggesting large-particle settling has been completed. The later sulfate collection size distributions resemble unimodal background spectra, whereas earlier ones are bimodal. Average sulfate load for all altitudes decreases during the period of study from 0.4 to 0.08 microgram/cu m. The latter value is somewhat higher than a volcanically unenriched pre-El Chichon level, suggesting that even as of 1987, stratospheric background had not been obtained.
Using physical and bio-optical data from moorings in the central equatorial Pacific, the perturbations to phytoplankton biomass and productivity associated with the onset of the 1997-98 El Nino event were investigated. The data presented depict the physical progression of El Nino onset, from reversal of the trade winds in the western equatorial Pacific, through eastward propagation of equatorially trapped Kelvin waves and advection of waters from the nutrient-poor western equatorial warm pool. The physical perturbations led to fluctuations in phytoplankton biomass, quantum yield of fluorescence and a 50% reduction in primary productivity.
VLBI is one of the most important techniques for measuring Earth orientation parameters (EOP), and is unique in its ability to make high accuracy measurements of UT1, and its time derivative, which is related to changes in the length of day, conventionally called LOD. These measurements of EOP give constraints on geophysical models of the solid-Earth, atmosphere and oceans. Changes in EOP are due either to external torques from gravitational forces, or to the exchange of angular momentum between the Earth, atmosphere and oceans. The effect of the external torques is strictly harmonic and nature, and is therefore easy to remove. We analyze an LOD time series derived from VLBI measurements with the goal of comparing this to predictions from AAM, and various ENSO indices. Previous work by ourselves and other investigators demonstrated a high degree of coherence between atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and EOP. We continue to see this. As the angular momentum of the atmosphere increases, the rate of rotation of the Earth decreases, and vice versa. The signature of the ENSO is particularly strong. At the peak of the 1982-83 El Nino increased LOD by almost 1 ms. This was subsequently followed by a reduction in LOD of 0.75 ms. At its peak, in February of 1998, the 1997-98 El Nino increased LOD by 0.8 msec. As predicted at the 1998 Spring AGU, this has been followed by an abrupt decrease in LOD which is currently -0.4 ms. At this time (August, 1998) the current ENSO continues to develop in new and unexpected ways. We plan to update our analysis with all data available prior to the Fall AGU.
As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.
This paper examines the performance of simple learning rules in a complex adaptive system based on a coordination problem modeled on the El Farol problem. The key features of the El Farol problem are that it typically involves a medium number of agents and that agents' pay-off functions have a discontinuous response to increased congestion. First we consider a single adaptive agent facing a stationary environment. We demonstrate that the simple learning rules proposed by Roth and Er'ev can be extremely sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions and that events early in a simulation can affect the performance of the rule over a relatively long time horizon. In contrast, a reinforcement learning rule based on standard practice in the computer science literature converges rapidly and robustly. The situation is reversed when multiple adaptive agents interact: the RE algorithms often converge rapidly to a stable average aggregate attendance despite the slow and erratic behavior of individual learners, while the CS based learners frequently over-attend in the early and intermediate terms. The symmetric mixed strategy equilibria is unstable: all three learning rules ultimately tend towards pure strategies or stabilize in the medium term at non-equilibrium probabilities of attendance. The brittleness of the algorithms in different contexts emphasize the importance of thorough and thoughtful examination of simulation-based results.
The University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) is involved in several initiatives to improve science education within the El Paso area public schools. These include outreach efforts into the K- 12 classrooms; training programs for in-service teachers; and the introduction of a strong science core curricula within the College of Education. The Pan American Center for Earth and Environmental Studies (PACES), a NASA-funded University Research Center, will leverage off the goals of these existing initiatives to provide curriculum support materials at all levels. We will use currently available Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) materials as well as new materials developed specifically for this region, in an effort to introduce the Earth System Science perspective into these programs. In addition, we are developing curriculum support materials and classes within the Geology and Computer Departments, to provide education in the area of remote sensing and GIS applications at the undergraduate and graduate levels.
Climate variability may affect the functioning of Amazon moist tropical forests, and recent modeling analyses suggest that the carbon dynamics of the region vary interannually in response to precipitation and temperature anomalies. However, due to persistent orbital and atmospheric artifacts in the satellite record, remote sensing observations have not provided quantitative evidence that climate variation affects Amazon forest phenology or productivity, We developed a method to minimize and quantify non-biological artifacts in NOAA AVHRR satellite data, providing a record of estimated forest phenological variation from 1982-1993. The seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) amplitude (a proxy for phenology) increased throughout much of the basin during El Nino periods when rainfall was anomalously low. Wetter La Nina episodes brought consistently smaller NDVI amplitudes. Using radiative transfer and terrestrial biogeochemical models driven by these satellite data, we estimate that canopy-energy absorption and net primary production of Amazon forests varied interannually by as much as 21% and 18%, respectively. These results provide large-scale observational evidence for interannual sensitivity to El Nino of plant phenology and carbon flux in Amazon forests.
Insights into stratospheric transport and the climatic effects of large volcanic eruptions can be obtained by studying the dispersion of two of the largest volcanic eruptions this century, Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon. Although both eruptions were located between 15 and 20 N latitude, and occurred either in spring or early summer (April vs June), the two volcanic clouds evolved differently in terms of dispersion of the volcanic aerosols. The El Chichon cloud stayed essentially confined to between 30 N and the equator until fall season following the eruption, whereas the Mt. Pinatubo cloud spread more rapidly into the southern hemisphere. Three dimensional stratospheric interactive tracer simulations for the particular years of the eruptions are reported. Radiative heating of the volcanic clouds due to upwelling IR radiation from the troposphere is important for understanding the dispersion of the volcanic aerosols, especially for Mt. Pinatubo. However, radiative heating alone does not explain the qualitative difference in meridional dispersion of the two volcanic clouds. The rate at which the aerosol clouds are sheared apart by wind shear limits the effectiveness of the radiative heating in producing meridional dispersion, and the wind shear is a function of the particular year of each eruption.
Satellite measurements of both cloud vertical structure and cloud-radiative forcing have been used to show that during the strong 1997/98 El Nino there was a substantial change in cloud vertical structure over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Relative to normal years, cloud altitudes were lower in the western portion of the Pacific and higher in the eastern portion. The reason for these redistributions was a collapse of the Walker circulation and enhanced large-scale upward motion over the eastern Pacific, both caused by the lack of a zonal sea surface temperature gradient during El Nino. It is proposed that these cloud structure changes, which significantly impact satellite measurements of the tropical Pacific's radiation budget, would serve as one useful means of testing cloud-climate interactions in climate models.
Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.
Recently, it was shown that the application of a method combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the maximum entropy method to univariate indicators of the coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be helpful in determining whether an El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) event will occur. SSA - a variant of principal component analysis applied in the time domain - filters out variability unrelated to ENSO and separates the quasi-biennial (QB), two-to-three year variability, from a lower-frequency (LF) four-to-six year EN-LN cycle; the total variance associated with ENSO combines the QB and LF modes. ENSO has been known to affect weather conditions over much of the globe. For example, EN events have been connected with unusually rainy weather over the Central and Western US, while the opposite phases of the oscillation (LN) have been plausibly associated with extreme dry conditions over much of the same geographical area...
We have studied the effects of the 2006 El Nino on tropospheric O3 and CO at tropical and sub-tropical latitudes measured from the OMI and MLS instruments on the Aura satellite. The 2006 El Nino-induced drought allowed forest fires set to clear land to burn out of control during October and November in the Indonesian region. The effects of these fires are clearly seen in the enhancement of GO concentration measured from the MLS instrument. We have used a global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport (GMI CTM) to quantify the relative irrrportance of biomass burning and large scale transport: in producing observed changes in tropospheric O3 and CO . The model results show that during October and November both biomass burning and meteorological changes contributed almost equally to the observed increase in tropospheric O3 in the Indonesian region. The biomass component was 4-6 DU but it was limited to the Indonesian region where the fires were most intense, The dynamical component was 4-8 DU but it covered a much larger area in the Indian Ocean extending from South East Asia in the north to western Australia in the south. By December 2006, the effect of biomass taming was reduced to zero and the obsemed changes in tropospheric O3 were mostly due to dynamical effects. The model results show an increase of 2-3% in the global burden of tropospheric ozone. In comparison, the global burdean of CO increased by 8-12%.
This project utilizes Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite data to assess the impact of sea breeze precipitation upon areas of agricultural land use in southern Florida. Water is a critical resource to agriculture, and the availability of water for agricultural use in Florida continues to remain a key issue. Recent projections of statewide water use by 2020 estimate that 9.3 billion gallons of water per day will be demanded, and agriculture represents 47% of this demand (Bronson 2003). Farmers have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. Sea breeze thunderstorms are responsible for much of the rainfall delivered to Florida during the wet season (May-October) and have been recognized as an important overall contributor of rainfall in southern Florida (Almeida 2003). TRMM satellite data was used to analyze how sea breeze-induced thunderstorms during El Nino and La Nina affected interannual patterns of precipitation in southern Florida from 1998-2009. TRMM's Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager provide data to quantify water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitation rates and intensity, and the distribution of precipitation. Rainfall accumulation data derived from TRMM and other microwave sensors were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of rainfall during each phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through the use of TRMM and Landsat, slight variations were observed, but it was determined that neither sea breeze nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida were strongly affected by ENSO during the study period. However, more research is needed to characterize the influence of ENSO on summer weather patterns in South Florida. This research will provide the basis for continued observations and study with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.