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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

2024 Stor4Build Annual Meeting: Exploring Challenges and Opportunities in Thermal Energy Storage for Buildings

In late August 2024, Stor4Build brought nearly 80 stakeholders from the thermal energy storage industry to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), including researchers, startups, electric utilities, nonprofits, implementers, state energy efficiency offices, and original equipment manufacturers. During the two-day Stor4Build Annual Meeting, participants engaged in vital discussions about the current challenges and opportunities for scaling thermal energy storage solutions in buildings. The event featured panel discussions led by leading technology experts and industry practitioners, as well as updates on Stor4Build–funded projects from national laboratories, highlighting advancements in the thermal energy storage field crucial to achieving the consortium’s mission.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robustness of energy performance of Zero-Net-Energy (ZNE) homes

Zero-net-energy (ZNE) homes produce an adequate amount of energy on-site to meet their energy demand based on source energy for an entire year. California building energy efficiency standards require new residential buildings started in 2020 to be ZNE. For various reasons, a home designed as ZNE may not achieve ZNE performance in real operation. Here we aimed to quantify the robustness of the energy performance of ZNE homes due to weather variability, climate change, and the uncertainty of occupant behavior. A single-family ZNE house, based on the optimal cost-effective design in three California climate zones, was used to develop the EnergyPlus simulation models. Weather variations were considered from a combination of the historical 30 years’ actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, typical year weather data in TMY3, and future weather data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. Three scenarios of occupant behavior from the energy perspective were defined to represent the uncertainty about occupants’ activities, comfort requirements, and their adaptive interactions with buildings and systems. In terms of annual source energy, the simulation results of the ZNE homes showed: (1) a decrease of 23–38 percent for occupants with energy austerity behavior and an increase of 120–130 percent for occupants with energy wasteful behavior, compared with the baseline assumption of normal occupants; (2) a variation range of –15 percent to +14 percent for the results using 30-year AMY weather data compared with the baseline results using TMY3 weather data; (3) an increase of 10–13 percent with future weather in Fresno and Riverside and a decrease of 15 percent with San Francisco; and (4) climate change can reduce the gap between the austerity and wasteful consumption. These findings provide insights into how ZNE homes may perform in reality and inform architects, engineers, occupants, and policymakers to pay more attention to occupant behavior on design, operation, and regulations of ZNE homes to ensure energy performance robustness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Remote Alaska Communities Energy Efficiency Competition: Energy Efficiency for the Gem of the Yukon (Final Report)

Over the past decade, the City of Ruby has been proactive in working to reduce cost and energy use in the community. Ruby (Tl’aa’ologhe) is a remote city in Alaska located on the south bank of the Yukon River near the Kilbuck-Kuskokwim Mountains, about 50 air miles east of Galena and 230 air miles west of Fairbanks. As of 2019, the community has a population of over 150 people and most of Ruby’s residents are Koyukon Athabascan. Ruby has a long history of promoting local efficiency and clean energy in an effort to become more sustainable. Between 2007-2010, the community hosted Alaska’s first demonstration of an in-river hydrokinetic test project, sponsored by the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council. In 2011, a 5kW solar photo-voltaic (PV) array was installed by the Interior Regional Housing Authority. In 2012, the community had a new power plant constructed by the Alaska Energy Authority that supplies waste heat to the washeteria, clinic and public safety garage, saving the community more than 4,000 gallons of heating fuel per year. The clinic, constructed by the Tanana Chiefs Conference, is one of the most energy efficient buildings in the interior and utilizes new building efficiency standards that were passed by the tribes. It has a 5kW solar PV array that provides energy into the local electric grid and offsets approximately 20% of the annual energy use. Building on this legacy, the City of Ruby entered into Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Remote Alaska Communities Energy Efficiency Competition (RACEE) in 2016, pledging to reduce per-capita energy use 15% by 2020. During the second phase of the competition, 13 communities including Ruby were provided funding for tailored technical assistance to measure energy use and create energy efficiency plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Developing Residential Energy Usage Baselines and Energy Efficiency Options

FCPC has been a leader in energy conservation not only in the State of Wisconsin, but nationally, as well. In 2016, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ranked FCPC 11th in its Top 30 Local Government List as a result of the extensive measures the Tribe has taken toward its goal of achieving 100% carbon-neutral energy independence. Some of these efforts include the reduction of the Tribal government workweek to four days instead of five, the purchase of renewable energy certificates to more than offset the Tribe’s annual energy consumption, the installation of solar photovoltaic systems, and the completion of energy audits of Tribal government facilities. Until now, FCPC has focused on energy efficiency options for government and enterprise buildings, but it is now time to broaden the scope of energy efficiency to include the Tribe’s residential community. The Tribe’s Energy Working Group has identified the completion of home energy audits as one of its more imminent goals, as formal energy evaluations have yet to be completed on residential dwellings on the FCPC reservation. Tribal leadership is already looking ahead to the anticipated outcome of these energy audits and has taken steps to develop a cost sharing program that will assist Tribal homeowners to implement identified efficiency options as a result of this project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-temperature thermal energy storage with thermophotovoltaic energy conversion (Final Report)

This project began with a simple concept: that thermal energy storage paired with thermophotovoltaic power conversion could be a cost-effective solution to the challenge of renewables variability. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy are clean, affordable, and abundant worldwide, but their variability presents a major problem for the incorporation of a large amount of these resources in global power systems. Systems with high penetrations of renewables frequently see periods of overproduction, where renewable energy is thrown away, and periods of underproduction, where expensive and polluting fossil fuel resources must be used to fill in the gaps. While energy storage technologies such as lithium ion batteries can help store energy from times of overproduction to times the energy is needed, current and projected future prices for these technologies are not low enough to support very renewables-heavy power grids. The research also focused on the techno-economics of using thermal energy storage and thermophotovoltaics to store the energy from solar and wind energy sources when they are available and release this energy back to the grid when it is needed. One of the biggest outcomes of this research was the conclusion that battery prices must drop 10x from their current values in order to meet this need, and this is unlikely to happen with current technologies such as lithium ion batteries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactors Integrated Energy System: Thermal Energy Storage Island Design

The main topic of this research is integrated energy systems (IES) designed for pairing industrial thermal energy loads with advanced reactors (ARs). The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Crosscutting Technology Development IES program and the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) are seeking to develop, design, and construct an AR-IES demonstration platform that couples the thermal output from an AR operating at the INL/NRIC Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME) test bed in the Experimental Breeder II dome to a variable capacity load emulator (i.e., air-cooled radiator) and sensible thermal energy storage (TES) via a molten salt thermal energy transfer fluid. In the rapidly evolving landscape of energy supply and distribution, flexibility has emerged as a prized attribute, surpassing the traditional notions of stability and baseload generation capability. This shift in priorities is particularly evident in the context of nuclear power plants (NPPs), where adaptability over constant output is becoming more important. As our energy infrastructure and resources embraces the rise of distributed energy generation, the inherent variability in net demand continues to grow. Moreover, the use of nuclear energy as a source of heat for decarbonizing the industrial sector is becoming a very pressing topic. In such environment, advanced NPPs are poised to enter a more competitive energy market, delivering both, flexible electricity and heat. This shift motivates the exploration of TES systems, designed to empower NPPs with nimble responsiveness to market fluctuations, flexible heat delivery capabilities, and redefine their role in the energy field. TES systems offer the unique advantage of storing nuclear energy in its original form as heat, thereby affording unparalleled flexibility in its subsequent utilization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of Wind and Battery Integrated Energy Systems

Integrating renewable energy into the electric grid is challenging due to the intermittency and variability of wind and other non-dispatchable resources. Integrated energy systems (IESs) combine multiple energy technologies (e.g., fossil, nuclear, renewables, storage) to reduce costs and improve flexibility and reliability. However, standard techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods often overestimate the benefits of IESs because they fail to account for energy market adjustments. This paper systematically studies the limitations of the prevailing price-taker assumption for TEA and optimization of hybrid energy systems. As an illustrative case study, we retrofit an existing wind farm in the RTS-GMLC test system (which loosely mimics the Southwest U.S.) with battery energy storage to form an IES. We show that the standard price-taker model overestimates the electricity revenue and the net present value (NPV) of the IES up to 178% and 30.4%, respectively, compared to our more rigorous multiscale optimization. These differences arise because introducing storage creates a more flexible resource that impacts the larger wholesale electricity market. Moreover, this work highlights the impact of the IES has on the market via various strategic bidding, and underscores the importance of moving beyond price-taker for optimal storage sizing and TEA of IESs. We conclude by discussing opportunities to generalize the proposed framework to other IESs, and highlight emerging research questions regarding the complex interactions between IESs and markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Concept of circular-linear energy recovery accelerator to probe the energy frontier

Energy-frontier accelerators provide powerful tools performing high precision measurements confirming the fundamentals of the physics and broadening new research horizons. Such machines are either driven by circular or linear accelerators. The circular machines, having the centre-of-mass (CM) energy values reaching 200 GeV (for leptons) and above, experience beam energy loss and quality dilution, for example, due to synchrotron radiation, limiting the overall CM energy achievable and requiring a constant energy top-up to compensate the loss and the beam quality dilution. Linear colliders overcome these limitations, while the finite capabilities of generating high average current beams limits the luminosity. This is partially compensated by the quality of the colliding beams. In this work, we suggest a novel design of circular-linear accelerator based on the merging of the “non-emitting”, low-energy storage rings and energy recovery linear accelerators. We suggest using the recently considered dual-axis asymmetric cavities to enable the operation of such a system, and in particular the energy recovery from spent, high-intensity beams. The machine considered, under the scope of the SNOWMASS-2021 initiative, can be potentially used to reach ultimate energy frontiers in high-energy physics as well as to drive next generation light sources. The merging of circular and linear systems, and applications of dual axes cavities, should allow the maintaining of high beam quality, high luminosity, and high energy efficiency, while offering a flexible energy management and opening clear opportunity for reducing the running cost. We note that the numbers shown in the paper are for illustration purpose and can be improved further.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The science case for an intermediate energy advanced and novel accelerator linear collider facility

It is widely accepted that the next lepton collider beyond a Higgs factory would require center-of-mass energy of the order of up to 15 TeV. Since, given reasonable space and cost restrictions, conventional accelerator technology reaches its limits near this energy, high-gradient advanced acceleration concepts are attractive. Advanced and novel accelerators (ANAs) are leading candidates due to their ability to produce acceleration gradients on the order of 1–100 GV/m, leading to compact acceleration facilities. However, intermediate energy facilities (IEF) are required to test the critical technology elements on the way towards multi-TeV-class colliders. Here a science case for a 20–100 GeV center-of-mass energy ANA-based lepton collider that can be a candidate for an intermediate energy facility is presented. The IEF can provide numerous opportunities for high energy physics studies including precision Quantum Chromodynamics and Beyond the Standard Model physics measurements, investigation of charged particle interactions with extreme electromagnetic fields, and exploring muon and proton beam acceleration. Possible applications of this collider include the studies of γγ and electron beam-fixed target/beamdump collider designs. Thus, the goal of the proposed IEF is to both carry out particle physics measurements in the 20-100 GeV ranges as well as to serve as an ANA demonstrator facility.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Frequency Stability and Minimizing Load Shedding Events by Adopting Grid-Scale Energy Storage with Grid Forming Inverters

The upward adoption trend of renewable generation not only means cleaner energy integrated into modern power grids, but also that most new generation sources are based on front-end inverter bridges, used as interfaces to most wind generation and all the solar PV. It is well known that due to their power electronics-based construction rather than rotational shafts, these sources do not provide inertia inherently, nor substantial amounts of short-circuit currents. However, stable energy such as what can be stored in energy storage systems, although interfaced via inverters, can be controlled to respond to system disturbances in a manner that emulates inertial behavior. This paper focuses on the application of such energy storage systems to augment inertia in the island of Puerto Rico. To do so, a user defined inverter model that contains grid forming capabilities and fast frequency response is modeled and integrated into the real transmission system in power flow and dynamics software. Energy storage is then connected to two selected areas so that it not only provides frequency regulation to avoid widespread load shedding events, but also other tangible benefits. The simulated cases suggest that even relatively small energy storage systems can avert load shedding events if adequately placed in the transmission network.

Grid-forming inverters, IBR, Inertia↗
DOE OSTI2022

A 194nW Energy-Performance-Aware loT SoC Employing a 5.2nW 92.6% Peak Efficiency Power Management Unit for System Performance Scaling, Fast DVFS and Energy Minimization

A self-powered IoT system-on-chip (SoC) reduces power to sub-μw and employs multiple power-management techniques to trade-off ultra-low power (ULP), higher performance, smaller energy harvester footprint, and longer operating lifetime. Minimum Energy Point Tracking (MEPT) [1]–[4] keeps an SoC operating at the minimum energy point (MEP) to enhance system lifetime. Previous sample-and-hold MEPT schemes need frequent voltage comparisons and a high-frequency clock that increases power [2]. Current-ratio-based MEPT relies on specialized CMOS technology for body-bias tuning [3]. A switched-capacitor-based MEPT can achieve energy minimization at a targeted performance [4], but it uses a 30MHz clock witμW power consumption and low power efficiency. For ULP IoT applications, SoCs need to have ultra-low quiescent power, high efficiency for energy delivery, performance scaling based on available energy, and energy minimization to increase system lifetime. In this work, we propose an ULP IoT SoC with a triple-mode power management unit (PMU) that integrates energy-performance scaling, event-driven fast DVFS, and MEPT features to improve the system energy efficiency, as shown in Fig. 13.8.1. This work achieves a minimum 194nW power consumption for the SoC and 5.2nW quiescent power for the PMU with a 92.6% peak efficiency and >10 4 dynamic range. The timing waveform in Fig. 13.8.1 (bottom), demonstrates the transition of the three modes including energy aware (EA), performance aware (PA), and MEPT based on event priority and input voltage level which reflects the energy availability. As such, the system energy consumption and performance could be well-balanced based on both the input and output conditions.

self-powered IoT system-on-chip (SoC)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pushing Green: Leveraging Home Energy Score to Promote Deep-Energy Retrofits in Portland, Oregon

In the United States, 39% of total energy is consumed by the building sector, 20% of which is attributed to residential buildings. Older homes, built before 1992 when the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program was established, represent approximately 68% of residential building stock in the country and often have significant air leakage, inadequate insulation and inefficient heating & cooling systems. These older homes have long been the elephant in the room: how can programs effectively increase efficiency in all of the homes in need? Developed by DOE, the Home Energy Score was established to provide homeowners, buyers, and renters a comparable score measuring a home's energy use. Much like the MPG rating of automobiles, the Home Energy Score provides an overview of a residential building’s energy efficiency. In 2016, the City of Portland passed an ordinance requiring all residential properties to receive a Home Energy Score before being listed for sale, a mandate that was implemented January 1, 2018. Since 2018, more than 22,000 homes throughout the Portland Metro area have received Home Energy Scores (amounting to over 10% of Portland's single-family homes). This paper explores the sample of Home Energy Scores throughout Portland, including at the neighborhood level, identifies trends in efficiency measures, describes how the data has been used to date and proposes ways program administrators can use the Home Energy Score to increase the impact of energy efficiency programs on a city-scale.

Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios

A growing number of studies report the impact of climate change on the supply, demand, transport, and cost of energy. However, there is lack of comprehensive overview and understanding of climate change impacts on energy across technologies and scales. Here, we conduct a systematic assessment of results from 186 papers on potential impacts of climate change on energy. Results show that increased cooling demand and decreased heating demand is anticipated globally. Similarly, increases in bio-energy and hydro power and a possible decrease in thermal electricity supply is projected. Overall changes in heating and cooling demand, increased thermal cooling, and reduced hydropower supply in Europe, India and Latin America are projected 35 at the regional scale. Furthermore, our review revealed that studies use a wide range of inconsistent methods and data sources. To move forward, the study proposes a consistent multi-model assessment framework for a comprehensive understanding of climate impacts on energy.

Yalew, Seleshi G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reaction heterogeneity in practical high-energy lithium–sulfur pouch cells

The lithium–sulfur (Li–S) battery is a promising next-generation energy storage technology because of its high theoretical energy and low cost. Extensive research efforts have been made on new materials and advanced characterization techniques for mechanistic studies. However, it is uncertain how discoveries made on the material level apply to realistic batteries due to limited analysis and characterization of real high-energy cells, such as pouch cells. Evaluation of pouch cells (>1 A h) (instead of coin cells) that are scalable to practical cells provides a critical understanding of current limitations which enables the proposal of strategies and solutions for further performance improvement. Herein, we design and fabricate pouch cells over 300 W h kg -1 , compare the cell parameters required for high-energy pouch cells, and investigate the reaction processes and their correlation to cell cycling behavior and failure mechanisms. Spatially resolved characterization techniques and fluid-flow simulation reveal the impacts of the liquid electrolyte diffusion within the pouch cells. We found that catastrophic failure of high-energy Li–S pouch cells results from uneven sulfur/polysulfide reactions and electrolyte depletion for the first tens of cycles, rather than sulfur dissolution as commonly reported in the literature. The uneven reaction stems from limited electrolyte diffusion through the porous channels into the central part of thick cathodes during cycling, which is amplified both across the sulfur electrodes and within the same electrode plane. A combination of strategies is suggested to increase sulfur utilization, improve nanoarchitectures for electrolyte diffusion and reduce consumption of the electrolytes and additives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods

The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.

Todd, Austin C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Becoming a 10: A Closer Look at the U.S. Department of Energy Home Energy Score's Updates, Improvements, and Expansion

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Home Energy Score provides homeowners, buyers, and renters directly comparable and credible information about a home's estimated energy use and costs. Certified Qualified Assessors conduct low-cost assessments to provide each home a 1-10 score alongside a set of cost-effective upgrades to improve the score. As of February 2022, hundreds of assessors have delivered over 175,000 scores to homes across the country. Originally released in 2012 using DOE2.1e as the modeling backend, after years of effort, a new version of Home Energy Score was released in 2021 utilizing DOE's flagship energy modeling software, EnergyPlus. The updated architecture leverages modeling advancements and enables new building technologies to be added to the Scoring Tool. The new release represents a leap forward in harmonizing modeling assumptions across DOE and industry programs. In this paper we discuss the rigorous approach to model comparison with DOE2 undertaken prior to the update, utilizing test homes and real homes from the Home Energy Score database to strike a balance between consistency and more accurate energy predictions. We also discuss additional new capabilities, including improvements made to the upgrade recommendations methodology, the inclusion of an energy cost estimate metric based on ResStock analysis for use in home appraisals, and improved data analysis for quality assurance. Finally, we look at the impact Home Energy Score has had over the last decade and its future potential as its uptake in state energy plans, local ordinances, utility programs, and real estate data continues to grow.

building energy modeling↗