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NASA NTRS2019

State of the science in reconciling top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for terrestrial CO2 budget

Robust estimates of CO2 budget, CO2 exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: “top‐down” atmospheric inversions and “bottom‐up” biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere–biosphere CO2 exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO2 budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO2 budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO2 budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO2 budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO2 budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink–source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO2 budgets.

atmospheric inversion↗
NASA NTRS2024

Where Dust Comes from: Global Assessment of Dust Source Attributions with AeroCom Models

The source of dust in the global atmosphere is an important factor to better understand the role of dust aerosols in the climate system. However, it is a difficult task to attribute the airborne dust over the remote land and ocean regions to their origins since dust from various sources are mixed during long-range transport. Recently, a multi-model experiment, namely the AeroCom-III Dust Source Attribution (DUSA), has been conducted to estimate the relative contribution of dust in various locations from different sources with tagged simulations from seven participating global models. The BASE run and a series of runs with nine tagged regions were made to estimate the contribution of dust emitted in East- and West-Africa, Middle East, Central- and East-Asia, North America, the Southern Hemisphere, and the prominent dust hot spots of the Bodélé and Taklimakan Deserts. The models generally agree in large scale mean dust distributions, however models show large diversity in dust source attribution. The inter-model differences are significant with the global model dust diversity in 30%–50%, but the differences in regional and seasonal scales are even larger. The multi-model analysis estimates that North Africa contributes 60% of global atmospheric dust loading, followed by Middle East and Central Asia sources (24%). Southern hemispheric sources account for 10% of global dust loading, however it contributes more than 70% of dust over the Southern Hemisphere. The study provides quantitative estimates of the impact of dust emitted from different source regions on the globe and various receptor regions including remote land, ocean, and the polar regions synthesized from the seven models.

Dust source attribution, Aerosol, Model↗
NASA NTRS2020

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Climate↗
NASA NTRS2010

Increasing Springtime Ozone Mixing Ratios in the Free Troposphere Over Western North America

In the lowermost layer of the atmosphere - the troposphere - ozone is an important source of the hydroxyl radical, an oxidant that breaks down most pollutants and some greenhouse gases. High concentrations of tropospheric ozone are toxic, however, and have a detrimental effect on human health and ecosystem productivity1. Moreover, tropospheric ozone itself acts as an effective greenhouse gas. Much of the present tropospheric ozone burden is a consequence of anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors resulting in widespread increases in ozone concentrations since the late 1800s. At present, east Asia has the fastest-growing ozone precursor emissions. Much of the springtime east Asian pollution is exported eastwards towards western North America. Despite evidence that the exported Asian pollution produces ozone, no previous study has found a significant increase in free tropospheric ozone concentrations above the western USA since measurements began in the late 1970s. Here we compile springtime ozone measurements from many different platforms across western North America. We show a strong increase in springtime ozone mixing ratios during 1995-2008 and we have some additional evidence that a similar rate of increase in ozone mixing ratio has occurred since 1984. We find that the rate of increase in ozone mixing ratio is greatest when measurements are more heavily influenced by direct transport from Asia. Our result agrees with previous modelling studies, which indicate that global ozone concentrations should be increasing during the early part of the twenty-first century as a result of increasing precursor emissions, especially at northern mid-latitudes, with western North America being particularly sensitive to rising Asian emissions. We suggest that the observed increase in springtime background ozone mixing ratio may hinder the USA s compliance with its ozone air quality standard.

Cooper, O. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Characterization of Dust Properties at the Source Region During ACE-Asia

ACE (Aerosol Characterization Experiment)-Asia is designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally-occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. The phase-I of ACE-Asia was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Gobi desert, east coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian dust is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia we have measured continuously aerosol optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from surface. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of dust aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical thickness. At the time of the Terra/MODIS overpass, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with MODIS retrievals over land. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed their implications in regional climatic effects.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dust Aerosols at the Source Region During ACE-ASIA: A Surface/Satellite Perspective

ACE (Aerosol Characterization Experiment)-Asia is designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. The phase-I of ACE-Asia was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Gobi desert, East Coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian dust is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia we have measured continuously aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from surface. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of dust aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical thickness. At the time of the Terra/MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed their implications in regional climatic effects.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗
NASA NTRS2002

Dust, Pollution, and Biomass Burning Aerosols in Asian Pacific: A Column Surface/Satellite Perspective

Many recent field experiments are designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern/southeastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. For example, the phase-I of ACE-Asia was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Gobi desert, East Coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Springtime is also the peak season for biomass burning in southeastern Asia. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian aerosols is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia we have measured continuously aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from surface. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical depth. At the time of the Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor), TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. A column satellite-surface perspective of Asian aerosols will be presented and will discuss their implications in regional-to-global effects on climate, fresh water redistribution, and health issues. (to be presented in Hawaii, April 28 - May 3, and Beijing, China, May 6 - 10, 2002)

Tsay, Si-Chee↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Overview of Regional Experiments on Biomass Burning Aerosols and Related Pollutants in Southeast Asia: From BASE-ASIA and the Dongsha Experiment to 7-SEAS

By modulating the Earth-atmosphere energy, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, and affecting regional-to-global weather and climate, biomass burning is recognized as one of the major factors affecting the global carbon cycle. However, few comprehensive and wide-ranging experiments have been conducted to characterize biomass-burning pollutants in Southeast Asia (SEA) or assess their regional impact on meteorology, the hydrological cycle, the radiative budget, or climate change. Recently, BASEASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) and the 7-SEAS (7- South-East Asian Studies) Dongsha Experiment were conducted during the spring seasons of 2006 and 2010 in northern SEA, respectively, to characterize the chemical, physical, and radiative properties of biomass-burning emissions near the source regions, and assess their effects. This paper provides an overview of results from these two campaigns and related studies collected in this special issue, entitled Observation, modeling and impact studies of biomass burning and pollution in the SE Asian Environment. This volume includes 28 papers, which provide a synopsis of the experiments, regional weatherclimate, chemical characterization of biomass-burning aerosols and related pollutants in source and sink regions, the spatial distribution of air toxics (atmospheric mercury and dioxins) in source and remote areas, a characterization of aerosol physical, optical, and radiative properties, as well as modeling and impact studies. These studies, taken together, provide the first relatively complete dataset of aerosol chemistry and physical observations conducted in the sourcesink region in the northern SEA, with particular emphasis on the marine boundary layer and lower free troposphere (LFT). The data, analysis and modeling included in these papers advance our present knowledge of source characterization of biomass-burning pollutants near the source regions as well as the physical and chemical processes along transport pathways. In addition, we raise key questions to be addressed by a coming deployment during springtime 2013 in northern SEA, named 7-SEASBASELInE (Biomass-burning Aerosols Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles and Interactions Experiment). This campaign will include a synergistic approach for further exploring many key atmospheric processes (e.g., complex aerosol-cloud interactions) and impacts of biomass burning on the surface-atmosphere energy budgets during the lifecycles of biomass burning emissions.

aerosol/biomass burning↗
NASA NTRS2002

Characterization of Dust Properties during ACE-Asia and PRIDE: A Column Satellite-Surface Perspective

Many recent field experiments are designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentration over particular pathways around the globe. For example, the ACE-Asia (Aerosol Characterization Experiment-Asia) was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts, East Coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). The PRIDE (Puerto RIco Dust Experiment, July 2000) was designed to measure the properties of Saharan dust transported across the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean. Dust particles typically originate in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of dust aerosols is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the ocean. During ACE-Asia and PRIDE we had measured aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from ground-based remote sensing. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical depth. At the time of the Terra/MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. We will present the results and discuss their implications in regional climatic effects.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Characterization of Dust Properties Near Source Region During ACE-Asia: A Column Satellite-Surface Perspective

Many recent field experiments are designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern/southeastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. For example, the ACE-Asia was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts, East Coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian aerosols is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia we have measured continuously aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from surface. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical depth. At the time of the Terra/MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed their implications in regional climatic effects.

Tsay, S. -C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation

The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of tropical convection during the northern summer and its connection with the monsoon over India and east Asia is studied from a planetary-scale perspective. A 40-50 day oscillation consisting primarily of an east-west oriented dipole with centers located over the Indian Ocean/Subcontinent and the western Pacific is shown to be an important component of the ISV of tropical convection during summer. Over these regions, the oscillation undergoes complex structural changes which are manifested in simultaneous cloudiness propagation eastward along the equator from the eastern Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, northward from the Indian Ocean into the Subcontinent, and northwestward from the equatorial western Pacific to the South China Sea. The oscillation is also found to be phase-locked to the monsoon onset of India, the Mei-yu regime over South China, and, in general, the seasonal variation of convection over the equatorial Indian-West Pacific Ocean.

Lau, K.-M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid increase in tropospheric ozone over Southeast Asia attributed to changes in precursor emission source regions and sectors

Observations indicate that tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) concentrations over Southeast Asia have been increasing rapidly since the 1990s. Here, we quantify source contributions from geographical regions and emission sectors of the two distinct types of O 3 precursors, i.e., nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), to the increase in tropospheric O 3 in Southeast Asia during 1990–2019 using an O 3 source tagging technique implemented in a global chemistry-climate model. In this work, the results show that although local anthropogenic emission of NO x in Southeast Asia only contributes 18% of the annual averaged near-surface O 3 concentration, the increase in local NO x emission dominates the increasing trend of O 3 concentration in Southeast Asia, accounting for 107% of the regional averaged trend of 1.07 ppb decade -1 . Increases in NO x emissions from East Asia and South Asia explain 29% of the increasing trend, but 9% is offset by the emission reduction in North America. Ground transportation is responsible for 79% of the rapid O 3 increase, followed by 39% contribution from international shipping. Because an increase in anthropogenic NO x emissions enhances the O 3 production efficiency by VOCs, the increase in near-surface O 3 concentrations in Southeast Asia is thereby largely contributed by methane and biogenic VOCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Neotectonics of Asia: Thin-shell finite-element models with faults

As India pushed into and beneath the south margin of Asia in Cenozoic time, it added a great volume of crust, which may have been (1) emplaced locally beneath Tibet, (2) distributed as regional crustal thickening of Asia, (3) converted to mantle eclogite by high-pressure metamorphism, or (4) extruded eastward to increase the area of Asia. The amount of eastward extrusion is especially controversial: plane-stress computer models of finite strain in a continuum lithosphere show minimal escape, while laboratory and theoretical plane-strain models of finite strain in a faulted lithosphere show escape as the dominant mode. We suggest computing the present (or neo)tectonics by use of the known fault network and available data on fault activity, geodesy, and stress to select the best model. We apply a new thin-shell method which can represent a faulted lithosphere of realistic rheology on a sphere, and provided predictions of present velocities, fault slip rates, and stresses for various trial rheologies and boundary conditions. To minimize artificial boundaries, the models include all of Asia east of 40 deg E and span 100 deg on the globe. The primary unknowns are the friction coefficient of faults within Asia and the amounts of shear traction applied to Asia in the Himalayan and oceanic subduction zones at its margins. Data on Quaternary fault activity prove to be most useful in rating the models. Best results are obtained with a very low fault friction of 0.085. This major heterogeneity shows that unfaulted continum models cannot be expected to give accurate simulations of the orogeny. But, even with such weak faults, only a fraction of the internal deformation is expressed as fault slip; this means that rigid microplate models cannot represent the kinematics either. A universal feature of the better models is that eastern China and southeast Asia flow rapidly eastward with respect to Siberia. The rate of escape is very sensitive to the level of shear traction in the Pacific subduction zones, which is below 6 MPa. Because this flow occurs across a wide range of latitudes, the net eastward escape is greater than the rate of crustal addition in the Himalaya. The crustal budget is balanced by extension and thinning, primarily within the Tibetan plateau and the Baikal rift. The low level of deviation stresses in the best models suggests that topographic stress plays a major role in the orogeny; thus, we have to expect that different topography in the past may have been linked with fundamentally different modes of continental collision.

Kong, Xianghong↗
NASA NTRS2010

Irrigation Induced Surface Cooling in the Context of Modern and Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

There is evidence that expected warming trends from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have been locally masked by irrigation induced cooling, and it is uncertain how the magnitude of this irrigation masking effect will change in the future. Using an irrigation dataset integrated into a global general circulation model, we investigate the equilibrium magnitude of irrigation induced cooling under modern (Year 2000) and increased (A1B Scenario, Year 2050) GHG forcing, using modern irrigation rates in both scenarios. For the modern scenario, the cooling is largest over North America, India, the Middle East, and East Asia. Under increased GHG forcing, this cooling effect largely disappears over North America, remains relatively unchanged over India, and intensifies over parts of China and the Middle East. For North America, irrigation significantly increases precipitation under modern GHG forcing; this precipitation enhancement largely disappears under A1B forcing, reducing total latent heat fluxes and the overall irrigation cooling effect. Over India, irrigation rates are high enough to keep pace with increased evaporative demand from the increased GHG forcing and the magnitude of the cooling is maintained. Over China, GHG forcing reduces precipitation and shifts the region to a drier evaporative regime, leading to a relatively increased impact of additional water from irrigation on the surface energy balance. Irrigation enhances precipitation in the Middle East under increased GHG forcing, increasing total latent heat fluxes and enhancing the irrigation cooling effect. Ultimately, the extent to which irrigation will continue to compensate for the warming from increased GHG forcing will primarily depend on changes in the background evaporative regime, secondary irrigation effects (e.g. clouds, precipitation), and the ability of societies to maintain (or increase) current irrigation rates.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m(sup -2), indicating that adjustments to aerosols, which include cloud, water vaporand temperature, lead to stronger forcing than the aerosol direct RF.

Climate Models↗
NASA NTRS2001

Decadal-Interdecadal SST Variability and Regional Climate Teleconnections

Dominant modes of decadal and interdecadal SST variability and their impacts on summertime rainfall variability over East Asia and the North America are studied. Two dominant modes of interdecadal SST variability, one associated with El Nino-like warming in the global oceans and one with an east-west seesaw variation in the equatorial Pacific have been identified. The first mode is associated in part with a long-term warming trend in the topical oceans and cooling over the northern Pacific. The second mode suggests an westward shift and strengthening of the Walker circulation from 1960s to the 1980s. Over East Asian, the first SST mode is correlated with reduced rainfall in northern China and excessive rainfall in central China. This SST mode is also associated with the tendency for increased rainfall over the midwest region, and reduced rainfall over the east Coast of the US. The results suggest a teleconnection pattern which links the occurrences of drought and floods over the Asian monsoon and the US summertime time climate. This teleconnection is likely to be associated with decadal variability of the East Asian jetstream, which are affected by strong land surface heating over the Siberian region, as well as El Nino-like SST forcings. The occurrences of major droughts and floods in the East Asian and US continent in recent decades are discussed in light of the above teleconnection patterns.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Photochemical oxidant processes in the presence of dust: An evaluation of the impact of dust on particulate nitrate and ozone formation

The influence of dust on the tropospheric photochemical oxidant cycle is studied through the use of a detailed coupled aerosol and gas-phase chemistry model. Dust is a significant component of the troposphere throughout Asia and provides a surface for a variety of heterogeneous reactions. Dust is found to be an important surface for particulate nitrate formation. For dust loading and ambient concentrations representative of conditions in East Asia, particulate nitrate levels of 1.5-11.5 micrograms/cubic meter are predicted, consistent with measured levels in this region. Dust is also found to reduce NO(x) levels by up to 50%, HO2 concentrations by 20%-80%, and ozone production rates by up to 25%. The magnitude of the influence of dust is sensitive to mass concentration of the aerosol, relative humidity, and the value of the accommodation coefficient.

Zhang, Yang↗